Player Expectations Based on Draft Position

[Wretch]

In the main forum there is a "vigorous" debate going on regarding BB being a good draft/talent evaluator. I think the root of the disagreements come from the expectations associated with player based on draft position, and what constitutes a "bust."

Based on that premise I quickly put together my expectations and they are:

Early 1st:
Worst Case: 8-10 year starter
Best Case: Multiple (more than 3) pro bowls
Mid-Late First:
Worst Case: Multi-year starter
Best Case: 2-3 pro-bowl appearances
2nd-3rd:
Worst Case: Situational starter
Best Case: Multi-year starter
4th-5th:
Worst Case: Camp fodder
Best Case: Situational Starter or Career STer.
Post 5th-UDFA:
Worst Case: Camp fodder
Best: Career STer

If the Team gets those things from a player that is a solid-good pick. If the team gets less it's a miss, and if they get more than it's a good to great pick.

Also if a player's career is shortened due to injury I don't count that against a team unless there is an obvious injury history, like Wheatley.

This is still fluid in my my mind and I am open to critique.

What are your expectations?

 

[ay-yo]

Top 20:
Multi year starter, at least a few pro bowls

20-32:
talent is diluted but if scouting dept does their job they can still get a multi year starter who can make some pro-bowls

2nd:
gambles, if you're batting .500 its a good job

3 onward:
total crapshoot at this point, I wouldn't value a 3rd that much more than a 6th

 

[Jimke]

Top 20:
Multi year starter, at least a few pro bowls

20-32:
talent is diluted but if scouting dept does their job they can still get a multi year starter who can make some pro-bowls

2nd:
gambles, if you're batting .500 its a good job

3 onward:
total crapshoot at this point, I wouldn't value a 3rd that much more than a 6th

This is why I don't like to see the Patriots trade down from the first round.
The Pats recent draft history proves your points.

 

[Lamanai]

Here is some information that is somewhat on point. IMO, it shows that fans' (my own included) expectations for success exeeds reality.


The Huddle Report - NFL Draft Research and Analysis

only a 50% chance a 2nd rounder ever becomes a full time starter or major contributor. The number is 30% for third rounders, so picking late in the round extrapolates to about 40%.

Full Disclosure: The 10-year study was prepared for NFL Network by Charley Casserly!