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Player Expectations Based on Draft Position

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Wretch, Apr 24, 2012.

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  1. Wretch

    Wretch On the Game Day Roster

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    In the main forum there is a "vigorous" debate going on regarding BB being a good draft/talent evaluator. I think the root of the disagreements come from the expectations associated with player based on draft position, and what constitutes a "bust."

    Based on that premise I quickly put together my expectations and they are:

    Early 1st:
    Worst Case: 8-10 year starter
    Best Case: Multiple (more than 3) pro bowls
    Mid-Late First:
    Worst Case: Multi-year starter
    Best Case: 2-3 pro-bowl appearances
    2nd-3rd:
    Worst Case: Situational starter
    Best Case: Multi-year starter
    4th-5th:
    Worst Case: Camp fodder
    Best Case: Situational Starter or Career STer.
    Post 5th-UDFA:
    Worst Case: Camp fodder
    Best: Career STer

    If the Team gets those things from a player that is a solid-good pick. If the team gets less it's a miss, and if they get more than it's a good to great pick.

    Also if a player's career is shortened due to injury I don't count that against a team unless there is an obvious injury history, like Wheatley.

    This is still fluid in my my mind and I am open to critique.

    What are your expectations?
     
  2. ay-yo

    ay-yo Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Top 20:
    Multi year starter, at least a few pro bowls

    20-32:
    talent is diluted but if scouting dept does their job they can still get a multi year starter who can make some pro-bowls

    2nd:
    gambles, if you're batting .500 its a good job

    3 onward:
    total crapshoot at this point, I wouldn't value a 3rd that much more than a 6th
     
  3. Jimke

    Jimke In the Starting Line-Up

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    This is why I don't like to see the Patriots trade down from the first round.
    The Pats recent draft history proves your points.
     
  4. Lamanai

    Lamanai On the Game Day Roster

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    Here is some information that is somewhat on point. IMO, it shows that fans' (my own included) expectations for success exeeds reality.


    The Huddle Report - NFL Draft Research and Analysis

    only a 50% chance a 2nd rounder ever becomes a full time starter or major contributor. The number is 30% for third rounders, so picking late in the round extrapolates to about 40%.

    Full Disclosure: The 10-year study was prepared for NFL Network by Charley Casserly!
     
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