Philosophical Question: Is Brady a better QB without Moss?

[Brock Samson]

They mislead because you say so?

Because the elementary correlation/causation problem says so.

Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

What do the 2 highest scoring offenses in the history of the NFL have in common?

Football players who drink Gatorade.

But you've changed the argument. I am not saying Moss is not a good football player, and I am not saying that he doesn't contribute significantly to the Patriots. I am saying that the correlation I quoted doesn't take into account other possible causes. Wes is a pretty big influence on those numbers.

 

[emoney_33]

No my definition is winning big games. How many Super Bowls did Brady win prior to the Moss era? How Many has he won since? How did the offense perform in the 2007 Superbowl? How did the offense perform in the playoffs against Baltimore last year?

How did the offense perform in the 2003 playoffs, especially the Titans game? That 51% really made sure they won that game!

QBs don't win games alone, WRs don't win games alone, coaches don't win games alone, it takes an entire team plus a few breaks the right way.

Yes, I am suggesting that Brady usually threw it to open receivers and did not force the ball into double coverage prior to the Randy Moss era.

No one really saw double coverage pre-Moss. And the "open" receiver is usually getting open as or after you throw. Not to mention that Brady simply doesn't "force" it to double covered Moss to the detriment of the team.

I have no problem with taking shots deep. Its necessary to loosen up the offense, but when the game is on the line in the 2nd half the QB's job is to keep the offense on the field, chew up the clok and complete drives

Too bad we don't have a running back to accomplish that for us, like I dunno 2004. The 2nd-half issues of last year were not because Brady decided not to look for the open man and just heave it up to Moss. Brady struggled with the deep ball last year true, but don't forget he had a year out of the NFL with an ACL INJURY. Did you expect him to come back at his absolute 100% best?

What is troubling is Brady's 2nd half passing stats since the Moss era. I will post a link as soon as I can find one.

It's not troubling since we are only talking about 2009 here. Quit trying to find a scapegoat.

I'd rather have the 2001, 2004 and 2005 seasons.

I'd rather have the 2001, 2003 and 2004 RESULTS. The only offense I might consider over the 2009/2010 offense would be the 2004 offense and that's because it had the Corey Dillon balance.

I'll take the 03-04 defenses though, those were special. But continue to believe that Brady was the sole reason we ever won anything, even though it's disrespectful to all of the hard work that went into it by countless others.

 

[Water Boy]

In ONE game? Since your statistic is "clutch" situations, who failed in the "clutch" in 2007 SB? The offense or defense? Moss got the go ahead TD, the defense allowed the winning TD. Please stop

Please get real. Brady and the offense was more to blame for that loss than the defense.

 

[emoney_33]

Because the elementary correlation/causation problem says so.

Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They -may- mislead, but you said that they definitely mislead.

Football players who drink Gatorade.

But you've changed the argument. I am not saying Moss is not a good football player, and I am not saying that he doesn't contribute significantly to the Patriots. I am saying that the correlation I quoted doesn't take into account other possible causes. Wes is a pretty big influence on those numbers.

It's one thing to say that the numbers MIGHT mislead because Moss and Welker came over in the same year. It's another to say the numbers definitely mislead because of Welker. That was my only disagreement with that statement really.

I agree, Wes is a big influence but I don't think his contributions over a league average slot receiver is as impactful as Moss' contributions over a league average wide out. The point about the 2 highest scoring offenses is that it would be very unlikely for Moss' presence to simply be 'coincidence'.

It's pretty difficult to pinpoint their exact effects on the offense and I hope we don't have to find out any time soon. No doubt last year's team couldn't succeed without BOTH of them. There's a reason why teams gameplan around Moss and pay most attention to Moss and not Welker though.

 

[emoney_33]

Please get real. Brady and the offense was more to blame for that loss than the defense.

You just finished saying that Brady's overall numbers don't matter because he couldn't get it done in the 2nd half / game winning moments. Yet the ironic part is you continue to use the 2007 SB where the offense was in a funk for most of the game but they CAME THROUGH in the clutch end of game moment.

And it's funny how you have no rebuttal for the 51% in the Titans playoff game in 2003. Without the defense, it's 1 and done.

 

[Water Boy]

...continue to believe that Brady was the sole reason we ever won anything, even though it's disrespectful to all of the hard work that went into it by countless others.

You're the one throwing the Pats Defense under the bus for the 2007 Super Bowl loss

 

[BradyFTW!]

I can see arguing that not having Moss requires Brady to put on more impressive performances, since he has to do more with less, but better QB? No. Moss is one of the best WRs in the game, how could a QB be better without him?

 

[Water Boy]

And it's funny how you have no rebuttal for the 51% in the Titans playoff game in 2003. Without the defense, it's 1 and done.

I agree. That was a game that the defense gets the credit for winning.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I grant you that the offense with Moss has had a higher completion percentage per season and higher average yardage totals per season. But the point I'm driving at is that I think Brady has been more clutch when the game is on the line without Moss than with. WEEI had some very eye-popping 2nd half statistics about Brady since 2008. I will post them ASAP if I can find them posted somewhere.

Moss was on the Patriots in 2007, and it was by far the best year of Brady's career. There are a lot of possible reasons why Brady's regressed in certain situations post-2007. Having Moss around isn't really one of them.

 

[Brock Samson]

They -may- mislead, but you said that they definitely mislead.

Moss's name was plastered right next to the 2007 jump in numbers. That implied cause is definitely misleading, no ifs, ands or buts about it.

 

[Coach42]

The 2006 Patriots vehemently disagree.

 

[Marko]

The funny thing is that I agree with the op and thought this during the pre Moss era. Statistics do lie, especially in football. Much of the gaudy statistics posted by Brady were the result of at first the NFL didn't know what to do with Moss, Welker and Stallworth combined with BB's desire to run up the score in the first 10-12 games. Last year the offense was good at piling up stats in games against bad teams which completely inflated the numbers(Titans).
In close games, not only does it make it easier for the defense to roll coverage toward Moss, but it makes it easier for the DC to know where to bring blitzes from etc.
Now to the defense, an offense that is predicated on moving the chains is much more friendly to its own defense. A big play offense is either going to score quickly or go 3 and out which leaves the defense on the field. in blowouts it makes it easier for the defense because they can just play pass, however in games where the offense is trying lower percentage plays and not succeeding it makes it very difficult for the defense because if it gives up a couple of first downs the momentum clearly shifts to the other team.

 

[emoney_33]

Moss's name was plastered right next to the 2007 jump in numbers. That implied cause is definitely misleading, no ifs, ands or buts about it.

No it's not misleading unless it's wrong, which may or may not be the case. It's very likely that Moss, the highest scorer on that 2007 team, was the most significant factor in that increase. Especially when you consider the 2nd best offense in NFL history had that same receiver as the highest scorer on that team.

 

[sieglo]

No, but they mislead.

Indeed they do. Comparing pre- and post- Moss is meaningless because you can't control for Welker, who showed up in 2007 along with Moss.

 

[WhiZa]

I thought losing to the Jets was bad...

 

[Brock Samson]

No it's not misleading unless it's wrong, which may or may not be the case. It's very likely that Moss, the highest scorer on that 2007 team, was the most significant factor in that increase. Especially when you consider the 2nd best offense in NFL history had that same receiver as the highest scorer on that team.

Oh brother, you don't get it and are dancing around the conversation. It's obviously misleading because it implies a specific cause, when in reality it is impossible to attribute those numbers to a single cause. Why? Because Welker, Stallworth and Gaffney were all contributing to opening up the 2007 offense for everybody else, Gaffney was contributing in 2008, and you've shown nothing that isolates Moss's impact over the last three years other than pulling "very likely" out of your fanny. Like I said, I am not discounting Moss, but you can't honestly pretend that Moss is the single sole cause. This is stupid, I'm going to bed, and you're going on ignore.

 

[Kasmir]

Now to the defense, an offense that is predicated on moving the chains is much more friendly to its own defense. A big play offense is either going to score quickly or go 3 and out which leaves the defense on the field. in blowouts it makes it easier for the defense because they can just play pass, however in games where the offense is trying lower percentage plays and not succeeding it makes it very difficult for the defense because if it gives up a couple of first downs the momentum clearly shifts to the other team.

Patriots led the league in both first downs and time of possession last year; so how would you consider a "moving the chains" offense to do better?

NFL Stats: by Team Category

I'm also puzzled as to the mechanism by which Randy Moss might make Tom Brady a worse 2nd half quarterback.

To my mind, the difference between the superbowl winning teams and the recent teams is the absence of playmakers on defense. The "refuse to lose" guys are now all gone, Bruschi, Harrison, and McGinest particularly. No one on this defense comes close to those guys. In the glory years, Brady would get a lead and then it was lights out. Not any more. We need one or more of the new guys to rise to that level or this team will win but not contend.

 

[emoney_33]

Oh brother, you don't get it and are dancing around the conversation. It's obviously misleading because it implies a specific cause, when in reality it is impossible to attribute those numbers to a single cause. Why? Because Welker, Stallworth and Gaffney were all contributing to opening up the 2007 offense for everybody else, Gaffney was contributing in 2008, and you've shown nothing that isolates Moss's impact over the last three years other than pulling "very likely" out of your fanny. Like I said, I am not discounting Moss, but you can't honestly pretend that Moss is the single sole cause. This is stupid, I'm going to bed, and you're going on ignore.

Are you suggesting that Moss' 1493 yards and 23 TD were not MOST responsible for the 2007 statistical jump? Are you suggesting that Welker, Stallworth and/or Gaffney were required to get Moss those numbers even though defenses gameplanned first and foremost for Moss and not the other guys? Are you seriously trying to say that Moss wasn't the 'reason' for the jump?

Yes without good receivers to complement the offense, it wouldn't have had the great year it had. But there are a lot of -good- receivers in the NFL, there is only 1 Moss and only a handful who can even approach his impact on the game.

Moss IS that good.

And wtf is it with people and their inability to handle opposing views? "Wahh you make too much sense, IGNORE!"

 

[captain insano]

Before this thread is ripped to shreds please take a minute to understand my premise:

- I am not bashing Brady or Moss
- I am not insinuating that this team is better without Moss (or Brady)

I am simply asking your opinion as to whether you think Brady as a quarterback (not the offense as a whole) has played better and/or would revert to playing better (meaning taking what the defense is giving you) with out Moss.

In my opinion Tom was a better quarterback prior to the Moss era. I believe what he accomplished prior to Moss with Troy Brown, David Patten, David Givens, Jermaine Wiggins, Deion Branch, Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Bethel Johnson etc was more impressive than his exploits since 2007.

In the pre-Moss era, Tom's favorite receiver was the open one. He went through his passing progressions.

Beginning in 2007 we saw a different QB. In 2007, despite throwing for the single season TD record, I saw a QB who in the past would hit the open man underneath, force the ball to Moss in double coverage. Yes, many times Moss came up with the catch with one or more defenders draped on him, but many times (not to his discredit) he didn't. In my opinion, throwing jump balls to Moss is less impressive from a QB perspective than what Tom accomplished prior to 2007.

As we saw in the Jets game and in many other games in the Randy Moss era, there have been far too many instances in the second half where instead of grinding our drives with short passes, moving the chains and winning the time of possession battle, Brady is giving up downs when trying to force the ball to Moss (Curran: Brady's not quite dialed in yet) , and is forsaking what has made him a Hall of Fame QB, namely, going through his progressions and finding the open man.

yes brady is a much better qb without moss . with any luck moss will be gone after this year and we will see it with our own eyes. seems to me the only routes randy runs are long bombs or maybe a short out every now and then. i cant remember the last time i saw moss run a route in the middle of the field and that just makes the problem worse. i miss the brady who would throw the ball to who ever was open period.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

And it's funny how you have no rebuttal for the 51% in the Titans playoff game in 2003. Without the defense, it's 1 and done.

I agree. That was a game that the defense gets the credit for winning.

Funny thing is, the defense didn't do anything on that 4th down play against the Titans. Drew Bennett was wide open and flat out dropped the pass. Had he caught it, the Titans probably would've ended up scoring to win the game.