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Peter Schiff was wrong and cost his clients billions!

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, Jan 27, 2009.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I'm sure some just JUMPED onto this thread to defend the undefendible Peter Schiff.

    Of course Schiff was right about the equities market crash...yup, he's was absolutel on the money. But that's about all he was or will be right about and his clients are paying the price for his many missed calls.

    There is a lengthy dissection of all his wrongs at this link if you care to read it in it's entirety;

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Peter Schiff Was Wrong

    Here's a brief synopsis;

    "Let's Return to Schiff's Investment Thesis.

    Schiff's Investment Thesis


    US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation).
    Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
    Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.


    12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008

    Wrong about hyperinflation
    Wrong about the dollar
    Wrong about commodities except for gold
    Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
    Wrong about foreign equities
    Wrong in timing
    Wrong in risk management
    Wrong in buy and hold thesis
    Wrong on decoupling
    Wrong on China
    Wrong on US treasuries
    Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic

    That's a lot of things to be wrong about, especially given all the "Peter Schiff Was Right" videos floating around everywhere. The one thing he was right about was the collapse of US equities and no part of his investment strategy sought to make a gain from that prediction.

    Peter Schiff concludes many of his articles, books, etc. with the claim he saw this coming and "positioned his clients accordingly". (he actually screwed them!)

    However, let's assume for a moment that hyperinflation is going to happen. Where then could one get the most bangs for their buck to take advantage? The answer to that question is in real estate, where one can buy on 5% down. Nowhere else can one easily get such leverage.

    Note that there has never been hyperinflation in history where real property declined in value. Therefore, if Schiff really believes in hyperinflation, he ought to be suggesting that his clients buy houses.

    However, Schiff thinks housing prices will continue to crash. So do I. And if they do, you can kiss hyperinflation theories goodbye."


    BTW...buying gold still isn't a bad idea.
     
  2. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I will also add that I do agree with Schiff and Ron Paul regarding gov't spending. I am against a stimulus (yet I support Obama) and I am ABSOLUTELY against buying up toxic assets in the financial markets. Especially the latter.
     
  3. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    So (as I've put forth umpteen times) this thread only goes to prove that economic forecasts are worthless.

    The "best" economists/market forecasters are wrong only 49% of the time.

    Waste O' Time.
     
  4. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    The more I post on this topic and follow it, the more discouraged I get. I can definately forecast with higher than 50% accuracy certain aspects of the economy. But when it comes to the far more complicated aspects that involve human decisions, you're right. When you get right down to it, no one can forecast when the economy will turn around or what effect the stimulus will have (if any at all).

    The single biggest reason this is true is because no one can predict human behavior. Specifically, we can't predict when confidence will return or what it will look like. I think we can be certain you won't see the majority of people buying up everything on credit for decades no matter how much the economy eventually comes back.

    Baby Boomers will now be frugal until they die.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2009
  5. Wildo7

    Wildo7 Totally Full of It

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    economic forecasts are pretty worhtless, but isn't it a little early to declare that he's wrong? I'm pretty sure this isn't over yet. The fact is he WAS right. I see no reason why he should be held to a different standard than everyone else who will also be wrong and has been wrong from the start. That said, anyone taking his word as the gospel because he was right should probably rethink things.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2009
  6. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    so if it happens a year from now or three years from now you will feel vindicated?

    I think his entire point has been americans have spent all their money on worthless junk and are bankrupt plus we don't produce anything. so he was wrong on symptoms. big deal
     
  7. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    You have to read the article Wildo. He's only been right on one thing, the equities crash. He was TOTALLY WRONG in how he advised his investors....read the link I provided.

    It also looks like it will be just about impossible for hyper-inflation to happen as well....read the link, it's actually very interesting.
     
  8. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    He's just not the guru some (very few) think of him as. Did you read the entire article I provided the link to? If not, there's no sense in even commenting yet.

    There are a lot of investors pissed off at him. Did you know that? He claimed he had THE strategy...pretty funny actually.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2009
  9. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    this is like you and your recession talk. you ranted for months were in one. the government said no. so it finally happened.

    and maybe he didn't count on a historic bailout occurred.

    what if the bailout never happened? things would be a lot worst
     
  10. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    noone could have predicted what occurred. i suppose you think warren buffet is an idiot too
     
  11. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Look Biggles....I just agree with Mish, who is the guy who wrote the article. He points out how often Schiff has been wrong and is amazed the guy is praised as a guru. NO ONE is a guru...no one any where on this earth regarding economics.

    Peter Schiff should not be praised by people anymore than anyone else who predicted this mess. And there are many who predicted it. The author (and I) just thinks it's a joke people are "oooo-ing and ahhh-ing" over this man.

    Did you read the article?

    And please do not compare me with anyone for saying we were in a recession. That was obvious to most people who know anything about economics. The signs always show up long before the recession. I'm sure you saw it too Biggles.
     
  12. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    yes I read most of the article.

    you just have a vendetta against Schiff. The guy is right on why America got into this mess. Sure he was wrong on some of the reactionary stuff, but we're still early in the game
     
  13. Wildo7

    Wildo7 Totally Full of It

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    I just think he got a lot of praise for being pretty much the sole voice predicting what happened. The arrogance displayed on those Fox videos by morons like Ben Stein added to the novelty of it. At the very least he earned himself a place at the table, but like I said before, anyone who treated or treats him as a guru is deluded.
     
  14. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    It makes me feel good to say the words, we agree....

    WE AGREE!

    cool :p
     
  15. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I realize you have more important things to do than to memorize my post history, so I'll help you. I have stated that Schiff should get to replay his predictions where he was mocked by his peers on national television with him present sitting along side those who laughed at him...we agree on that.

    But on many of the things he was wrong about, you're covering for him as if you have a personal stake in defending him (which you do not). I have no vendetta against him and I actually enjoy listening to him. But the most telling comment by Mish was that "if" Schiff really believes hyper-inflation was going to happen, he would/should have advised his clients to purchase real estate. Since he did not and even more importantly, still has not done that, it makes on wonder if he ever actually believed it would happen.

    Do you have a problem with criticizing the man? He is certainly not above criticism...just like Ron Paul isn't.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2009
  16. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    this is blasphemy!!!!!!!!!!:D
     
  17. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I am now officially excommunicated from the church of Peter Schiff
     
  18. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    you do have to admit we are early in the game on this mess. it took yrs to create and will take yrs to fix if it ever does get fixed.

    if you can figure out how to make money off of little production let me know
     
  19. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I'm working on it now...I figure we'll need a STIMULUS! :D
     
  20. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    just wait when banks start lending. prices are gonna skyrocket just for you;)
     

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