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Oswlek

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I put this post in another thread to keep the number of open threads down. No one has responded to it and I don't know if that is because no one cares or if it is because no one has looked at it. Anyway, I will post it again here.

Another thing that I thought might fit here is Peter King's take on the game. I will highlight the part that I think is completely off base.

Peter King said:
Much will be made of these two stats this week: Since taking over as coach of the Patriots in 2000, Belichick is 9-2 against Indy. And Tom Brady is 6-1 against Manning. But remember this: In the last 21 months the Patriots and the Colts have met once. The game was in Foxboro. And Indianapolis won by 19. I'd be more concerned about that one than I would be about the previous matchups if I were analyzing this game.

And that is why you are a terrible analyst, Peter.

NE isn't even remotely the same team that they were at this point last year, and mentioning that the games were on almost the same date doesn't change this. Doing a little breakdown:

First off, the best performance in last year's secondary, Samuel's, would presently be the worst, by a wide margin. The Colt game was Bruschi's second game back and Vrabel's second game as a starting ILB, so that was still obviously unsettled. Even the #5 LB slot has been upgraded. Then the DL, Seymour was out and Green was playing with a back injury. Having both of them healthier and adding better depth with Wright changes things dramatically.

Probably the biggest difference on the DL, though, is the astounding improvement of Wilfork. For those that don't remember, that game was the last game prior to the bye where the coaches decided to move him a yard back. Before then, he was pretty easy to move with one blocker and was actually a liability on most running plays. Since then, it is arguable whether he is the best NT in the game. I don't think he is yet, but a liability he is certainly not.

Then on offense, NE's running game is so much better that it is almost indescribable how incomparable they really are. Even excluding the addition of Maroney, every single member of the players needed for a running game are healthier and/or playing better, sans Graham. And I have the feeling that he was held back for just this game. If he was not, NE is still so much better at running the ball now, that it is laughable to use last year as a baseline. NE's passing game could have been considered a minor liability prior to this past week, but the performance that the had against a good Minny D shows that, while they may not be at last year's level yet, they are certainly an asset.

Looking at Indy, their best year on D during their run was last year. By comparison, this year's D has their best point of comparison to the dreadful 2001 version that was one of the worst of all time. I don't think they are that bad, but they are far closer to 2001 defensively, than 2005.

Offensively, they are pretty much what they were last year. Frankly, Manning might even be playing a litte better, but that is partially offset by the loss of Stokely. I thought they would have a poor running game, but Addai has proven to be a decent representation of James. This is the one and only area that could be considered even close to how they were last year.

How anyone could be ignorant enough to say that last year is the best point of reference, particularly someone who follows football for a living, is beyond me.
 
Oswlek said:
And that is why you are a terrible analyst, Peter.
I don't like his misleading "in the last 21 months" line. OK, Peter, in the last 21 months Indy and NE have only met once. But in the last 25 months, they've met 3 times and NE won 2 of those.
 
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Oswlek said:
I put this post in another thread to keep the number of open threads down. No one has responded to it and I don't know if that is because no one cares or if it is because no one has looked at it. Anyway, I will post it again here.

Another thing that I thought might fit here is Peter King's take on the game. I will highlight the part that I think is completely off base.



And that is why you are a terrible analyst, Peter.

NE isn't even remotely the same team that they were at this point last year, and mentioning that the games were on almost the same date doesn't change this. Doing a little breakdown:

First off, the best performance in last year's secondary, Samuel's, would presently be the worst, by a wide margin. The Colt game was Bruschi's second game back and Vrabel's second game as a starting ILB, so that was still obviously unsettled. Even the #5 LB slot has been upgraded. Then the DL, Seymour was out and Green was playing with a back injury. Having both of them healthier and adding better depth with Wright changes things dramatically.

Probably the biggest difference on the DL, though, is the astounding improvement of Wilfork. For those that don't remember, that game was the last game prior to the bye where the coaches decided to move him a yard back. Before then, he was pretty easy to move with one blocker and was actually a liability on most running plays. Since then, it is arguable whether he is the best NT in the game. I don't think he is yet, but a liability he is certainly not.

Then on offense, NE's running game is so much better that it is almost indescribable how incomparable they really are. Even excluding the addition of Maroney, every single member of the players needed for a running game are healthier and/or playing better, sans Graham. And I have the feeling that he was held back for just this game. If he was not, NE is still so much better at running the ball now, that it is laughable to use last year as a baseline. NE's passing game could have been considered a minor liability prior to this past week, but the performance that the had against a good Minny D shows that, while they may not be at last year's level yet, they are certainly an asset.

Looking at Indy, their best year on D during their run was last year. By comparison, this year's D has their best point of comparison to the dreadful 2001 version that was one of the worst of all time. I don't think they are that bad, but they are far closer to 2001 defensively, than 2005.

Offensively, they are pretty much what they were last year. Frankly, Manning might even be playing a litte better, but that is partially offset by the loss of Stokely. I thought they would have a poor running game, but Addai has proven to be a decent representation of James. This is the one and only area that could be considered even close to how they were last year.

How anyone could be ignorant enough to say that last year is the best point of reference, particularly someone who follows football for a living, is beyond me.

We also didn't have Harrison and his replacement was Gay, a CB, no? Weren't we also on like our 4th RCB by then?

Light was also out that game. As was Faulk. Wasn't Dillon hurting?
 
Yeah, but I am glad that people keep talking up the Colts this week. I wish we could have spent one more week under the radar.

Nice post, no need to bury it on another thread. It's the keegs and Armens of the world who clog up this website, not you. ;)

One caveat: Jamal Williams of the Chargers is the best nose tackle by a good margin, from what I can tell, IMO. But Wilfork really got over his sophmore slump, and is easily one of the most entertaining guys to watch on Sunday. He just has a way of bellyflopping on unsuspecting ballcarriers, and he also beats the crap out of O-linemen when he gets the chance to take a shot. :D
 
QuiGon said:
I don't like his misleading "in the last 21 months" line. OK, Peter, in the last 21 months Indy and NE have only met once. But in the last 25 months, they've met 3 times and NE won 2 of those.

Yeah, I completely agree here. I see anyalysts do this all the time. I don't like when they count the offseason as months and only count the time up to the day that disproves the point they are trying to make. You could also say that New England and Indy only met once in the last 12 months. Why go all the way to 21 months. Most of that was a Superbowl run and offseason.
 
5 Rings for Brady!! said:
But Wilfork really got over his sophmore slump
First half slump only last year. Yes, he is dominating and even though he's signed for several years I would love to sign this guy up until about 2015 right now.
 
The biggest difference is that Duane Starks and his Third Degree burns are now riding the pine in Oakland.
 
Bobs My Uncle said:
We also didn't have Harrison and his replacement was Gay, a CB, no? Weren't we also on like our 4th RCB by then?

Light was also out that game. As was Faulk. Wasn't Dillon hurting?

I didn't go into great detail with who was injured because my post would have lasted forever, but those that were either injured or out in that game included:

Starks - just had to put him up here to remind people about the differences between the two teams
Seymour - out
Light - out
Faulk - out
Green - bad back
Ty Poole - out
Chad Scott - out
Harrison - out
Sanders - hurt
Gus Scott - out
Dillon - ankle injury, probably wouldn't have played except..
Pass - out
McGinnest - broken hand

Add to that the improper play of Wilfork, Bruschi's recent return, Vrabel's recent switch and Brady's possible hernia and you get a seriously beaten down team.
 
Its worth mentioning that Brady had a good and efficient game against their D last year. We just put up no resistance on D.
 
How can Peter King say that with a straight face? How stupid can one person with such a visible job be?

Not even counting how completely different our own team is now, but what about the Colts? Last year they had a much better defense then they do now. This year they are back to relying on Peyton and the offense. That makes the earlier matchups FAR more relevant than last year's.

Honestly, is he that clueless? He needs to lay off the sauce.
 
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OSWLEK....Great post. Your analysis is dead on. We went into that game with a lot going against us and losing was not that surprising to me.

This year we are going into the Colts game physically and mentally ready to rock.

Honestly, I think we are going to humiliate them. Our defensive front is playing dominating football. Our RB's broke more sweat in warm ups last week than in the game.
 
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FloridaPatsFan said:
OSWLEK....Great post. Your analysis is dead on. We went into that game with a lot going against us and losing was not that surprising to me.

This year we are going into the Colts game physically and mentally ready to rock.

Honestly, I think we are going to humiliate them. Our defensive front is playing dominating football. Our RB's broke more sweat in warm ups last week than in the game.

Thanks. I have been saying that NE is going to kill Indy since the beginning of the season. For some reason (possibly near-game hesitance) I am coming off of that perch to more of a "solid win" way of thinking. A win that is moderately close, but still demonstrates without a doubt who is the better team.
 
Oswlek said:
I didn't go into great detail with who was injured because my post would have lasted forever, but those that were either injured or out in that game included:

Starks - just had to put him up here to remind people about the differences between the two teams
Seymour - out
Light - out
Faulk - out
Green - bad back
Ty Poole - out
Chad Scott - out
Harrison - out
Sanders - hurt
Gus Scott - out
Dillon - ankle injury, probably wouldn't have played except..
Pass - out
McGinnest - broken hand

Add to that the improper play of Wilfork, Bruschi's recent return, Vrabel's recent switch and Brady's possible hernia and you get a seriously beaten down team.

Yes, but don't you see, Indy and NE have played once in 19 months, and INDY WON BY 19!!!!

Seriously, great post. The team Indy beat last year was certainly NOT the Patriots.
 
FSUPatsFan said:
Yeah, I completely agree here. I see anyalysts do this all the time. I don't like when they count the offseason as months and only count the time up to the day that disproves the point they are trying to make.
You said it much better than I could have :D
FSUPatsFan said:
You could also say that New England and Indy only met once in the last 12 months. Why go all the way to 21 months. Most of that was a Superbowl run and offseason.
If memory serves, it was 3 weeks of playoffs (where NE played 2 games but Indy didn't play any) plus 7 months of offseason, training camp and exhibition games.

Ah, well... what can ya do..? :D
 
Oswlek said:
Harrison - out
This one line is, to me, going to be the biggest difference between last year's game and this year's.
 
Alas, I've got no time to comment this in depth, since I'm off to work and PatsFans gets filtered out there, so I'll just throw this out:

The key comparison for the Pats is not 2006 to 2005, but 2006 to 2004, the last time we beat the colts both during the regular season (not a comfortable win) and during the playoffs (a comfortable win). No doubt the Pats are better than last year. But how do the Pats compare with 2004? For an example, see the Holley linebacker thread. And how do the Colts compare with 2004?
 
Michigan Dave said:
The team Indy beat last year was certainly NOT the Patriots.

I know, and I'm surprised more isn't said about this. Last year was a nightmare of inconsistency around this time. A scrappy win, a blowout loss, a scrappy win, a blowout loss, that was how it went for weeks. The Chargers embarrassed us and exposed us way before the Indy game. Why are these mediots acting like we had a spectacular season last year? Maybe I should say "typical" season. We did not. We were floating at .500 at this time and struggling to string together two wins. Yeah, we finished strong....that's what we do. Is that all they remember?

I just don't get it.
 
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CaffeineMan said:
Alas, I've got no time to comment this in depth, since I'm off to work and PatsFans gets filtered out there, so I'll just throw this out:

The key comparison for the Pats is not 2006 to 2005, but 2006 to 2004, the last time we beat the colts both during the regular season (not a comfortable win) and during the playoffs (a comfortable win). No doubt the Pats are better than last year. But how do the Pats compare with 2004? For an example, see the Holley linebacker thread. And how do the Colts compare with 2004?

NE is much better defensively now than they were in the beginning of 2004. The Colts actually moved the ball at will in the 2004 opener.

Offensively, I would have to give NE the edge offensively in 2004, but that is only because the WRs have only shown themselves to be a geat weapon for one game. This one is debatable.

I'm not sure how to rank the Colt's O. I think Manning is better, but Edge was better than Addai is now. The WRs are about equal, although the Aaron Morehead isn't in Stokely's 2004 class. The TE's are about a wash as Pollard is gone, but Clark is better and they have another guys who is pretty good.

Defensively the Colts are worse. The Colts are really bad right now on D. Their wins have hidden this, but there is no way they can go far this year unless that area improves.

I think that NE matches up better with Indy now than they did in either of their regular season contests in 03/04
 
Bella*chick said:
I know, and I'm surprised more isn't said about this. Last year was a nightmare of inconsistency around this time. A scrappy win, a blowout loss, a scrappy win, a blowout loss, that was how it went for weeks. The Chargers embarrassed us and exposed us way before the Indy game. Why are these mediots acting like we had a spectacular season last year? We did not. He were floating at .500 at this time and struggling to string together two wins. Yeah, we finished strong....that's what we do. Is that all they remember?

I just don't get it.

Yes, they forget everything but the very end. Think: Miami.
 
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