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Peter King prediction

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Miguel, Nov 24, 2008.

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  1. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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  2. ch3oh

    ch3oh Rookie

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    Hmm, interesting.
    If Cassel was franchised, would the Pats be paying him more than Brady?
  3. ScottieC

    ScottieC Rookie

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    Yes. I think that is a true statement.

    Miguel??
  4. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    No, because he almost certainly wouldn't be playing under the franchise number. They would re-negotiate a longer-term contract.
  5. tatepatsfan

    tatepatsfan Rookie

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    I don't believe he'd make more than Brady. I think Brady and P. Manning are the top 2 QB's in terms of pay, and the franchise tag averages the salaries of the top 5 at each position, so he'd have to get less than Brady.

    Do the uncapped seasons begin after this year, or not until next year? If it is uncapped, I think we could reasonably try to hold onto Cassel, at least for trade bait. If not, he's earned the right to start elsewhere.
  6. tedylb

    tedylb Rookie

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    King's column stirred a couple of thoughts:

    "In Week 3 Cassel was a game-manager. In Week 12 McDaniels knew he had a game-winner. He was aggressive in his play-calling, directing Cassel to gun downfield early and often. Cassel told me after the 48-28 victory: "The game plan was brilliant. His game plans always blow me away, but this one was so good. Josh is an outstanding coach. I learn from him every week.''

    The Patriots, with McDaniels orchestrating the show, had 530 net yards in the revenge win over Miami. I said this on NBC last night: I don't know a lot about the pro-football landscape of 2009, but I do know this: Josh McDaniels will be one of the 32 head coaches in the NFL."

    Is Josh gone in 09? Probably. And will he take Cassel with him? Possible, but who the hell knows at this time?

    And finally, can anyone beat the Giants this year? Maybe not. They're loaded. But remember, people were asking the same questions about NE last year. So there's hope.
  7. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    King is one of those journalist who think that the entirety of being a head coach consists of calling offensive plays. Josh isn't going anywhere next year. He's not nearly ready to run a team.
  8. ch3oh

    ch3oh Rookie

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    You are correct. According to SI's 2008 cap numbers, Brady is earning 14,626,700. Averaging the top 5 would put Cassel at 14,604,000.

    Dry Heat, a quote from another sports board:
    "Sports writers use stats as a drunken man uses lamp-posts, for support rather than illumination."
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2008
  9. NEGoldenAge

    NEGoldenAge Banned

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    I believe Brady is so highly paid because it is a balloon year for him. He's restructured his contrnact a couple of times which pushed the money back a bit.

    A chance to work with McDaniels again may be leverage for the Pats and Cassel to work out a favorable deal, with the knowledge that he'd end up where McDaniels ends up.
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2008
  10. MoLewisrocks

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    Only cap numbers aren't what a player earns. They are merely an accounting of how his contract has been parsed over it's course. Brady will "earn" $8.5M in 2009 and $6M in 2010, which is why he will be extended before 2010... And his entire deal only averaged slightly more than $10M per year over 6 years. Cassel is potentially in line for that and more going forward.

    Which is why if Cassel is tagged it won't be to back up Brady here. If Cassel plays a down next season it will be under a new long term deal of his own from somebody, and not likely in NE...
  11. MoLewisrocks

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    He would be. Brady has the second highest cap figure this year, the one King overlooked in his calculation which is why it will be incorrect (as Miguel was pointing out). But cap number is not what a player earns in any given year, it's his salary and bonuses for that year added to any money that was pro rated over the course of his deal.

    There are a couple of ways to look at any players "deal" and where it truly slots him compensation wise. The total average if he plays out the contract (and Brady is barely top ten any longer by that measure), or the first 3 average or guaranteed money (and Brady remains top 5 by that measure but not by much) which is considered the gold standard of measurement since few see entire deals. Manning averaged around $15M over his first 3 seasons, Brady around $12M.

    Looking at cap hits is like basing the measure on cooked books. Manning is in the 5th year of a 9 year deal with 2 voidable seasons that was worth $128M if he saw all 9 or $98M if he saw the 7 unvoidable seasons. Early on his cap was kept artificially below his $14M average. Like by half. Because of that in 2008-2010 his cap numbers are projected to be roughly $18M, $21M and $19M. Brady's cap hits were more balanced or flat until they restructured to accommodate signing Moss. Historically teams have adjusted cap hits to factor in rising cap, taking minimal hits early on and backloading cap at the end of the deal when the cap would be substantially higher.

    Favre's deal only averaged $10M per but he appears on the top 5 list this season because he is in the salary only backloaded back end of his deal actually making $12M in salary with all his amortized cap gone because it was accounted for in Green Bay through 2006 and they hadn't restructured much forward as he meandered towards retirement there, or so they thought.

    The first uncapped season if they don't get a new deal with a cap done between now and then is 2010.
  12. b72s

    b72s Rookie

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    Structure contract

    Sign Cassell to a backweighted contract but have a big bonus if he plays in 60% of snaps in first year

    So next year we can play him or trade him to other team

    By the Time Brady comes back he will never get bonus but would if he is traded to other team

    Regardless if he is traded he can rewrite his contract accordingly
  13. PatsWickedPissah

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    Re: Structure contract

    Why would Cassel sign such a contract? Answer, he would not. He's a FA and will get offers of around $50M or so unless he totally tanks or :eek: gets injured. Me, I hope he becomes very wealthy. He'd have earned it.
  14. MoLewisrocks

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    King is on WEEI right now and he is nothing if not an entrenched talking head. Still doesn't realize that Favre's retirement has no impact on the non exclusive tag which is the one used in 9 of 10 cases (the only guys who get the exclusive tag at average of top 5 contracts for the current season are those teams refuse to trade and don't want anyone to talk to...and they are using that tag to extend negotiations).

    Did the same babble about the NFLPA frowning on teams doing tag and trade deals which is laughable considering how many of them have been done over the last decade... He must have been busy having a coffee nerdiness moment when KC and the NYJ tagged and traded players they had no intention of signing in 2007 and 2008 with nary a wimper from anyone. Also opined how "Matt Cassel" (and he says the name in a condescending tone for the 2 time AFC Player of the Week per WEEI :D) would jump at the chance to sign a $14M franchise tag...apparently oblivious to the market consequences he'd face thereafter.

    Of course he also repeated how he predicted absolute suspension for Light on Sunday night but the stunning decision to fine must mean there were extenuating circumstances he didn't know about...duh...not the least of which would be precident had he bothered to research it.

    Sports mediots have earned the designation and the real insanity is how they feed off of and rely on each other oblivious to the reality that they generally don't have a clue about their subject matter... If they ever had to work in the real world where there are consequences for being unimformed or incorrect more often than not or providing misleading information and analysis to their constituancy they'd be lost. That's the real problem between Bill and mediots - they have no accountability and Bill will not tolerate association with folks absent it.
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    Last edited: Nov 26, 2008
  15. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    There are few mediots out there that piss me off more than Peter King. It kills me that people still take this guy seriously when he has proven he has no real insight, knowledge or understanding of the game of football. And Schefter is the guy to go to for league information now, so where's that leave Peter King?
  16. Leave No Doubt

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    Good catch Miguel :) Peter King's not worth the click to me but when I saw that YOU started the thread I knew it hadda be for a good reason :popcorn:
  17. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Please stop insulting Brady:)


    Dallas Cowboys Forums - CowboysZone.com
  18. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Structure contract

    Since he will have taken more than 60% of the snaps, that would be a LTBE incentive that would count against the 2009 cap. The Pats can achieve the same goal without paying Cassel a dime in 2008 by simply tagging him and then trading him. I just do not see this front office spending any more than they do to better this team.
  19. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks for the compliment.
  20. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    If those last sentences made a damn bit of difference, Mangini would still be our DC. McDaniels is more ready than Mangini was.

    I'm not a fan of McDaniels (or Pees) and wouldn't be sad if both left.
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