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Perceived Needs vs Actual Needs....A Belichick Lesson on Reality

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PYPER, Apr 30, 2011.

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  1. PYPER

    PYPER Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    There seems to be a large gap between what many fans and media members view as roster needs compared to what Belichick and his staff feel are needs.

    The Kleenex tissue blowers believe that the Patriots desperately needed to address their pass rush by adding a high profile DE or OLB.

    But Belichick apparently felt differently.

    WHY NO DE?
    In recent years the Patriots added young defensive linemen such as Brandon Deaderick, Myron Pryor, and Ron Brace. Perhaps BB is happy with the progress those youngsters have made. Throw in vets like Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Mike Wright, Marcus Stroud, and Gerard Warren, and its entirely possible that BB didn't feel like any of the rookie ends available represented a valuable upgrade.

    WHY NO OLB?
    There doesn't appear to be as much depth at OLB but it is not hard to imagine that BB is high on Cunningham and Fletcher. He also paid out big money to TBC after his 11 sack campaign in 2009. Ninko emerged as a playmaker last season and Guyton is an option as well. Complicating the situation is the fact that our system demands DE's and OLB's of a very specific (and RARE) variety. While there may be a lot of OLB's in a particular draft, not all of them fit our needs. The ones that do are typically Top 10 selections. Getting them would require giving up the farm to get them which runs contrary to Belichick's drafting philosophy. As such this has been a position that BB has sought to fill through free agency throughout his tenure in Foxboro. FA's are proven commodities.

    Bottom line: Perhaps this need area simply wasn't as dire as others or perhaps more likely, the solutions to address it simply weren't available when we picked. So why not trade up many will scream. B/c it takes two to tango. Wanting to trade up and executing a win/win deal to do so are two very different animals.


    OFFENSIVE LINE
    Consider the question marks on the Oline. Light is a FA who is also long in the tooth. Neal retired. Mankins is unhappy. Kaczur missed all of last season with a back issues. Koppen's time may be limited as well. The time to address the OLine was NOW. This is not an opinion. This is REALITY.

    DEFENSIVE BACK
    At first glance it appeared to many that we had decent depth in the secondary. But we may have overestimated ourselves here. Will McCourty play as well as he did as a rookie? How will Bodden perform after missing all of last season? Arrington improved much in 2010 but there was a huge dropoff after him. Meriweather leaves much to be desired and his off field issues could pave the way for his departure. The bottom line is that there actually is a legitimate need for help here and in Dowling we obtained a player that could potentially star for us at CB or FS. I believe Dowling will win people over in much the same way McCourty did last year when all the Kleenex Tissue Blowers came out in full force to express their dismay about picking a CB in round 1.

    RUNNING BACK
    Most have been begging for a RB for a long time so this shouldn't require too much explaining. Morris is old and a FA, the same goes for Taylor and Faulk, both of whom may be considering retirement. BJGE is a restricted FA which means the only back on the roster is Woodhead. Assuming we retain BJGE, that gives us at least 4 RB's with everyone hoping for one more year from Faulk.

    QUARTERBACK
    I think the motivation for Mallett has more to do with replacing Hoyer than picking the heir replacement for Brady. Hoyer is a good QB and the time is upon us to cash in ala Matt Cassel. I expect to see a lot of Hoyer in preseason (if there is one) and believe we'll try to get another 1st rounder from a team with a messy QB situation such as Arizona. We'll then attempt to repeat the process with Mallet. I'm hoping Brady has 5-8 seasons left so its still too early to pick up his replacement. But Mallet certainly provides insurance in case the Brady timetable is much shorter than anticipated.


    DRAFT PHILOSOPHY:
    BB sees every rookie as an unknown commodity with bust potential. Better to have five or six chances to pick a winner vs just one. That's the beauty of his approach. If he hits on 50% of his picks, he'll end up with the same number of hits as a normal team that hits on 100% of their picks. Think about that. Other teams need to hit on 100% to equal BB's 50%. Therefore please stop complaining about the trade downs. The trade down philosophy is brilliant b/c there is typically not a large gap between players picked #25 and players picked #55. Why pick at #25 when you can get an equal or perhaps even greater talent at #55 while acquiring a future 1st rounder as well. One day (after we win the SB) the genius of this is going to be recognized. Don't be on the wrong side of history and allow yourself to look like a fool. Allow the talking idiots on the radio waves to have that role.

    Belichick knows what he's doing. What more does he need to do to earn people's trust. That doesn't mean he's not capable of making a mistake but so what. It means he's earned the right to do so. Let's see how everything turns out before we light up our torches and tie him up to a stake. The negativity here just doesn't make any sense. This doesn't mean you need to be a blind homer. It just means you need to move in the direction of becoming an enlightened beacon of patience.

    Patience people......patience.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2011
  2. capetide

    capetide Practice Squad Player

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    Amen, brother.
     
  3. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Another great post that will fall on deaf ears.....
     
  4. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #24 Jersey

    Good post. I love the offensive flavor
     
  5. aabtec

    aabtec On the Game Day Roster

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    It is..what is. I am just wondering how New England Mgt is going to sell tickets to the New England Colts. I guess every other team can have a D except us. Last year was fools gold to keep the fans interested in the Pats going into the Lockout.

    The New England Colts are on the fast track to being the Bruins. One and done.

    aabtec
     
  6. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    You need to look at the last few drafts and at how defense dominated those early rounds. There's plenty of young talent on defense, with Dowling added, and they need to incrementally improve now. It's the offense that needed an influx of talent.
     
  7. patriotscpfc

    patriotscpfc Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Hmm, no defense.

    Come on then, who are you picking then?

    Jordan at 17?

    So, when LeVoir or some JAG misses a block at RT and Brady is out for the season, will you moan?

    Ok, we take Solder, you take who at 28?

    We took a solid defensive players at 33, so you cant argue that pick.

    This defense was not that bad last year. It caused turnovers and missed Bodden and Warren the entire year. Adding them back in is massive.
     
  8. hellolin

    hellolin On the Game Day Roster

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    #12 Jersey

    Last year we had a wired draft, and many people went on this board pissed, and the draft turns out to be one of our best ever.
    There was a popular question during mid season, how the hell the pats suppose to go into a "Rebuild" season, end up being only "Reload"? How the hell are we able to do this?
    The answer is draft for the future, not for now, or drafting position to build a skelton of the future, instead of draft to fill in the holes right now
    If you would write down all the position players we have drafted in the last few years, includes this year so far, so far we got (I only write the starts out or nearly number one backups who is still in the team)

    2009 draft results starters below
    Patrick Chung 34 SS
    Ron Brace 40 DT
    Darius Butler 41 CB
    Sebastian Vollmer 58 OL
    Brandon Tate 83 WR
    Tyrone McKenzie 97 LB
    Myron Pryor 207 DT
    Julian Edelman 232 WR

    2010 draft results starters below
    Devin McCourty 27 CB
    Rob Gronkowski TE
    Jermaine Cunningham OLB
    Brandon Spikes ILB
    Taylor Price WR( Future starter almost for certain)
    Aaron Hernandez TE
    Zoltan Mesko PT
    Brandon Deaderick DE

    ok now lets look at 2011
    Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
    Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virginia
    Shane Vereen, RB, Cal
    Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU
    Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
    Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU
    Lee Smith, TE, Marshall
    Markell Carter, OLB,
    Let's just say everything after the third round doesnt make the team and is busted, so we end up getting OT, DB, RB, RB, and a first round talent QB as future starters and backups.

    Sum up all the position of starters we drafted during the last 3 drafts includes this one:

    SS DT CB OL WR LB DT WR CB TE OLB ILB WR TE PT DE OT CB RB RB QB

    Just look at it, that looks almost like another complete team in the making, instead of drafting to fill the holes of now, we are drafting for the future team with very good players and possible first round talents that falls down low and we end up getting good values. This is the reason why during a transitcion and rebuilding year last year, we end up only need to reload and a 14-2 record, it takes smart drafts like this to make it happen.

    Now something about Ryan Mallet, it now looks more like we have give a lot clues in how we drafted him.
    If anyone saw the Year of the QB thing on ESPN, one of the videos was interviewing the QB whipser, Brady's mentor, Tom Martinaz. In the end of the show, he said he had giving his number to J. Rusell, and told him to call, and he asked what if he end up calling and what kind of QB he will be. Well here we go guys, we are answering this question ourselves by drafting Ryan Mallet, so many people saying he is the next Ryan leaf or J. Russell, well we are experimenting what J, Russell would be if he end up having a good coaching staff. If we susscces, there will be another show called " The Mallet six", if that doesn't work out, he will most likely get traded for a future good pick. When we made that pick, somewhere in the US Ted Tompson is laughing, we are doing whatever GB did couple years before, this is a copycat league, not to surpise we are copying whatever GB did.

    No need to worry, history has show us if nobody loves BB's draft, it usually ends up being something of share amazement.
     
  9. BadMoFo

    BadMoFo Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    How is it perception vs. reality when you are just giving your opinions? We don't know what we have in Cunningham, Tully seems to be dropping off, Ninko was a playmaker in two games against the same team and Guyton was the most criticized LB on our team. How is he all of a sudden a good option. As far as DB, you are forgetting we have Kyle Arrington, Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler, Patrick Chung, James Sanders and others in addition to Bodden, McCourty and Meriweather. Why is creating competition at the DB position a good thing, but not on the defensive line or OLB?
     
  10. GoWhalers

    GoWhalers On the Game Day Roster

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    Anyone who thinks the Patriots are going to get a 1st round pick for Hoyer based on a few preseason games needs to get their head examined.

    We got a 2nd round pick for Cassel -- who played a full winning season -- and only got that from Pioli when he went over to KC.
     
  11. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #91 Jersey

    WE'LL see, some of the Biggest whiners here on game day are the ones that are pounding their chests on draft day. There are plenty of Knowlagable Respected (at least they were until last night) posters here that think that A real need for this team is the Defensive Front Seven, especially a pass rusher. The pats haven't had a one since Vrable and Colvin were in their prime five years ago or more. But when they and i make our case we're called idiots or morons. Even though many of us have watched football longer than the average poster on this forum has been alive we haven't got a clue. Again we'll see
     
  12. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    The Bruins could definitely be one-and-done. Just weird that you bring it up on the day they trounce Philly 7-3.
     
  13. Mike in 333

    Mike in 333 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sums it up quite nicely. Our defense didn't require that we get a pass rusher, the DB's are our defense in passing situations. Our first priority has to be protecting Brady and that seems to have been addressed.
     
  14. andrewgarrr

    andrewgarrr Banned

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    I think you're wrong about not needing an OLB.

    BB is very very stupid if he doesn't think the pass rush needs to be addressed. I truly believe that BB knows the pass rush is an issue, but he believes that selecting someone high in the draft is not the best way to go about fulfilling this need.

    Rookie LBs can be awesome as sub-rushers or players that can simply go after the QB every snap they play. Rookies are terrible at containing, remaining disciplined in their gap responsibilities, and dropping back to pick up TE/RBs/WRs in the tier two. Later round prospects are given more time to come in, learn the system, learn the position, all without the pressure and salary of a high round draft pick. Drafting a OLB conversion project in rounds 1-2 is always dicey. The Cunningham pick surprised me last year.
     
  15. andrewgarrr

    andrewgarrr Banned

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    No. Our defense is our defense in passing situations. You can have Revis and Asomugha lined up every snap, but if you give Kyle Orton fifteen seconds to stand in the pocket, he'll find the open man and get him the ball.

    Good coverage helps the pass rush. Good pass rush helps the coverage. You can't expect any secondary to hold up every time.

    Yeah, protecting the team's 20-million dollar franchise QB is the most important need. Agreed.
     
  16. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Here's my shorter summary.

    The draft represents 1/3rd of the off-season.

    Anyone who expected Belichick to address all needs in the draft alone is bound to be disappointed - but that says more about their lack of knowledge about the game than it does about Belichick's ability to manage the team.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2011
  17. Dr Pain

    Dr Pain Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Agree but look what the Patriots did for an entire season when Brady went down. What would have happened to the Colts if Manning went down? I love Brady but I have been upset that the team is too focused on him and it is only prudent to have a plan B and C. We started losing playoff games when we became the Colts. My guess is if they went into the playoffs with Cassel they would have gone further than the 1 and outs we have seen in the last 2 years. Not that Cassel is better but I think they played as a team better without the Brady focus.

    As far as the defensive problems, yea they are young but looked pretty good at times with significant injuries. The Offense seemed to often go 3 and out and lacked toughness till Mankins returned. I want a tougher team.
     
  18. borg

    borg In the Starting Line-Up

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    I think I read that a great man once said,"There are three phases of team building."
    Phase one is now over.
    It's only April 30th.
    Season hopefully starts 4+ months from now.
    Jeez...I wonder if today, BB thinks the roster is complete?
    Wish the Pats had extra capital to make summer trades! Extra 1s and 2s couldn't possibly be helpful?
    I guess teams won't be releasing players this year....too bad

    Dooooomed I say.....dooooomed
     
  19. Synovia

    Synovia In the Starting Line-Up

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    There's a 15 year wait for season tickets.
     
  20. WhiZa

    WhiZa Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I agree with the OP and I would also like to add that positions are related. If you have a good QB, your WRs look better. If you have a good CB your pass rush looks better. I believe that is BBs philosophy the past few years. You can easily find a good CB in the draft, but it is much harder to hit on a OLB or pass rusher.
     
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