Per 98.5: Pats won't renew Brandon Lloyd's deal

[DaBruinz]

I used this in another Lloyd thread a while ago, but here it is again:

In 2011, TB completed 401 passes without Lloyd. With Lloyd in 2012, TB completed--you guessed it--401 passes. I'm not saying that you can plug anyone into that spot, but Lloyd didn't have much of an impact. He's clearly not worth the 5th highest cap number on the team. If Lloyd had a cap number of $2M or so, there would be no discussion. It's a value-based decision, just like dozens of others the Patriots make every year. Making these types of cuts is what keeps this team competitive.

There is a huge problem with your argument here. It totally overlooks that Lloyd picked up some of the slack from Gronkowski missing so much time and the time that Hernandez missed. Gronkowski went from 90 receptions in 2011 to 55 receptions in 2012. Hernandez went from 79 receptions to 51 receptions. Who picked up the slack? That's right. Lloyd.

It is a value based discussion, but you need to make sure you look beyond just the tip of the iceberg of the total passes Brady Completed..

 

[Nunchucks]

I'm not talking about production; I have little doubt that Hartline could give us what Lloyd gave us last year.

I'm wondering how we plan on getting that for a "fraction of the cost"?

I have some doubt that Hartline can replace the production.

 

[Rob0729]

I used this in another Lloyd thread a while ago, but here it is again:

In 2011, TB completed 401 passes without Lloyd. With Lloyd in 2012, TB completed--you guessed it--401 passes. I'm not saying that you can plug anyone into that spot, but Lloyd didn't have much of an impact. He's clearly not worth the 5th highest cap number on the team. If Lloyd had a cap number of $2M or so, there would be no discussion. It's a value-based decision, just like dozens of others the Patriots make every year. Making these types of cuts is what keeps this team competitive.

There is somethings wrong with your logic though:

• This year the Pats rushed 525 times for 2184 yards. In 2011, the Pats rushed 438 yards for 1764 yards. The 2012 Patriots were more balanced with the run and pass than the 2011 Patriots were. If they had the same run to pass ratio as in 2011, Brady might have completed 500+ passes this season.
• In 2011, Gronk had 90 catches for 1327 yards. In 2012, he had 55 catches for 790 yards. That means Gronk lost 35 catches that had to be made up by another player on the team.
• In 2011, Hernandez had 79 catches for 910 yards. In 2012, he had 51 catches for 483 yards. That was 28 catches that had to be made up somewhere else this year.
• As the #2 WR, Lloyd had 74 catches for 911 yards and 4 TDs. In 2011, Branch and OchoCinco COMBINED had 66 catches for 976 yards and 6 TDs. So Lloyd almost had the same numbers as the 2011 #2 and #3 WR combined.
• Lloyd was second on the team in receptions and yards. Yes, if Gronk was healthy all season, he would have been third.

No offense, but your analysis is a bit superficial. When you look deeper at the numbers of the two years. Lloyd made far more impact than you are giving him credit. The offenses were different between 2011 and 2012 and Gronk and Hernandez made significantly less impact this past season than 2011 (mostly due to injuries).

 

[JackBauer]

I have some doubt that Hartline can replace the production.

Given that Hartline put up better numbers on a far worse team with a far inferior QB, I wouldn't worry too much.

 

[DaBruinz]

I have some doubt that Hartline can replace the production.

Why do you doubt that Hartline could replace Lloyd's production? Hartline was able to do more with a lesser QB throwing him the ball.

And let's remember. A healthy Gronk and a healthy Hernandez take up many of the throws that went Lloyd's way. Gronk had 35 less receptions and Hernandez 28 less receptions than in 2011.

I would expect any new receiver coming in to get 50+ receptions and 700+ yards... That would be well within what Hartline did last year with Tannehill throwing him the ball.

 

[Rob0729]

BTW, what people are missing about the Bedard piece is that if the Pats are looking to part ways with Lloyd it has more to do with the practice field and locker room than his production on the field. The fact that Bedard says that there are internal discussions on whether Lloyd's personality can be managed going forward to keep him tells me that they have no problem with paying him for his production alone.

The Pats don't keep locker room problems around and that looks to be why they are reportedly considering to cut ties with Lloyd. Not that they felt he wasn't producing on the field. I'm sure if he was a hard worker and kept his mouth shut, there would be no discussion of him being cut right now other than maybe on this board and in the media.

 

[Ring 6]

Stallworth may take his place on the roster but Hernandez may take his place on the field with Ballard joining the TE corps. Hernadez provides the big target and has more elusiveness and explosiveness than Lloyd, but for that matter so does the statue of Ray Lewis going up in Baltimore. Lloyd is good possession WR but does nothing with the ball and they can replace his production without too much of a problem. I think the real problem with LLoyd is attitude and Belichick doesn't want any more AD types in his lockerroom.

Putting Hernandez at WR negates his value. His value is that he is too quick and agile for LBs and S, and too big for corners.
Since he is also too small (or ineffective) to block LBs, and too slow to get open vs corners, his value is in versatility.
Turn him into a WR and you have a guy who struggles to get open.

Its like saying no one can block Wilfork and he is pretty agile for a DL, so lets move him to OLB.

 

[Ivan]

Putting Hernandez at WR negates his value. His value is that he is too quick and agile for LBs and S, and too big for corners.
Since he is also too small (or ineffective) to block LBs, and too slow to get open vs corners, his value is in versatility.
Turn him into a WR and you have a guy who struggles to get open.

Its like saying no one can block Wilfork and he is pretty agile for a DL, so lets move him to OLB.

But as a possession receiver he still has the size mismatch on CB's, and as far as speed goes I don't think there's much difference than a Lloyd or Boldin in that department. I would rather see him stay at TE but wonder where all the reps are going to come from for Ballard if he is going to play. In the end I think that Hernadez will be used much as he has been in a variety of roles and outside as WR will be one of those uses. It has been in the past and if they end up with a hole there, which i doubt they will, then he will see more use there than if they fill it adequately.

 

[Ivan]

BTW, what people are missing about the Bedard piece is that if the Pats are looking to part ways with Lloyd it has more to do with the practice field and locker room than his production on the field. The fact that Bedard says that there are internal discussions on whether Lloyd's personality can be managed going forward to keep him tells me that they have no problem with paying him for his production alone.

The Pats don't keep locker room problems around and that looks to be why they are reportedly considering to cut ties with Lloyd. Not that they felt he wasn't producing on the field. I'm sure if he was a hard worker and kept his mouth shut, there would be no discussion of him being cut right now other than maybe on this board and in the media.

Yep. I think they are being proactive about it where they weren't with AD. They were able to manage lloyd this year but probably saw the warning signs and don't want to be into a season and have real problems arise when they cannot get rid of him and have to suffer through it. this gives them free agency and the draft to address the possession receiver role. Lloyd seems to wear out his welcome consistently.

 

[Kontradiction]

Some of you are jumping the gun right now. Lloyd, at this time, is still on the team. If the speculation turns out to be true, the Pats are going to have to replace a 900+ yard receiver on top of their already existant needs at the position. With that in mind, I would expect them to make a move through FA as well as draft as high as round 2 for the position, all on top of signing Welker.

 

[Deus Irae]

Given that Hartline put up better numbers on a far worse team with a far inferior QB, I wouldn't worry too much.

Hartline was the first option in Miami.

 

[patfanken]

BTW, what people are missing about the Bedard piece is that if the Pats are looking to part ways with Lloyd it has more to do with the practice field and locker room than his production on the field. The fact that Bedard says that there are internal discussions on whether Lloyd's personality can be managed going forward to keep him tells me that they have no problem with paying him for his production alone.

The Pats don't keep locker room problems around and that looks to be why they are reportedly considering to cut ties with Lloyd. Not that they felt he wasn't producing on the field. I'm sure if he was a hard worker and kept his mouth shut, there would be no discussion of him being cut right now other than maybe on this board and in the media.

AT LAST! A modicum of sanity amid a miasma of chaos. IF, and that's a big IF, the Pats decide not to bring back Brandon Lloyd, it will NOT because of anything he didn't do on the field. 911 yds is more than all but 27 receivers in the league....and he did it being the 3rd option behind Welker and Gronk/Hernandez. WTF did you want him do do more for his $4MM cap hit.

That was more than Wallace, ABrown, LFitzgerald, Sidney Rice, Toirrey Smith, and host of other names that everyone would like to replace him with. Ludicrous is all I can think of. Any of you who think we can pick up another WR for $4MM/yr or less and automatically slot him him for over 900yds is just hoping.

Lloyd did what he was supposed to do. It wasn't spectacular, just workman like, and while I understand style is more important and substance for many here, you CAN'T dismiss the production, just because he didn't have YAC. The fact is Lloyd did exactly what he was expected of him. Anyone who was disappointed didn't watch what he accomplished the last 3 years. He was NEVER a deep threat with his 4.6 speed. He was never a big physical guy. But what he did do was make a LOT of very difficult catches and move the chains from OUTSIDE the numbers.

Again...if the Pats have a problem with him at practice and in the lockerroom that make him a liability, then I can understand his release, IF it happens. However only a fool would link it to what he produced on the field.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

A source tells CSN New England that Brandon Lloyd is not in the Patriots' plans for 2013.
One year after signing a three-year, $12 million contract, Lloyd appears to be on the verge of getting cut. Per the report, he's not even listed on the organization's projected depth chart for next season. It's a surprise after Lloyd came on very strong late in the season, compiling 36 catches for 452 yards and two touchdowns over the final six games (including playoffs). CSN New England cites "an enigmatic personality, aversion to physical contact, inability to find a consistent niche in the offense and financial disposability" as reasons for the breakup. The Patriots will be in the market for an outside receiver even if they get free agent slot market Wes Welker under contract.


Fantasy Football news and analysis, draft guide, cheatsheets and projections - Rotoworld

 

[Triumph]

How on earth are you going to get Lloyd's production for a fraction of the cost from Hartline?

First off, lets see if the Dolphins cave into Hartlines wishes.

He is rumored to be asking for 6 Mil per which is just ridiculous in this market. Hes worth half that per season.

 

[Banjo]

Welker + Harvin is all I ask for

 

[mgteich]

A) Lloyd won't be gone until Welker is signed.

B) Belichick may even be able to wait until a week into free agency to make his "official" decision on Lloyd. He can negotiate/sign other players first. I presume that the option date is by the end of March.

C) If Welker and Lloyd both stay, I think that we are unlikely to spend an real money on a free agent to stretch the field. Belichick has his limits for much he'll spend on the wide receiver position.

D) We all expect the patriots to draft a wide receiver or two.

E) Is Lloyd really worth $5M of new money to play this year? Cant't we do better for perhaps a bit more? The dead cap money is irrelevant.

Some of you are jumping the gun right now. Lloyd, at this time, is still on the team. If the speculation turns out to be true, the Pats are going to have to replace a 900+ yard receiver on top of their already existant needs at the position. With that in mind, I would expect them to make a move through FA as well as draft as high as round 2 for the position, all on top of signing Welker.

 

[Patsrock]

The Pats can get Lloyds production for a fraction of the cost with David Nelson or Hartline.

David Nelson. Don't think you are going to get the production you want from him this season. Torn ACL and new system.

Hartline is going to cost more money than Lloyd. He is going to get a 3 to 5 year deal worth about 6 a year.

 

[mgteich]

We were going to pay Lloyd $5M of new money to play this year.

David Nelson. Don't think you are going to get the production you want from him this season. Torn ACL and new system.

Hartline is going to cost more money than Lloyd. He is going to get a 3 to 5 year deal worth about 6 a year.

 

[BradyBranch39]

man oh man. Just can't win when it comes to WRs.

 

[Patsrock]

We were going to pay Lloyd $5M of new money to play this year.

My point is you are not going to get this dramatic improvement of Hartline over Lloyd. And it is not going to be a fraction of the cost.