Peppers cap hit "killing" Panthers

[JoeSixPat]

And there's another difference--they could be reasonably certain that Cassel was going to sign the tender quick. Given that $14.6M is about ten times what he's made in the NFL so far, he would have had to be a friggin' idiot not to sign it.

Again, go back and check the threads. There were just as many people convinced that Cassel would NEVER sign the tender *cough Deus Irae cough * until a trade was worked out as there were convinced, as you say, that he would have had to be a friggen idiot not to sign it.

No matter how much they insisted they "knew" he'd never sign it - sign it he did. And now there's even some information suggesting that Cassel didn't realize the implication of signing was that he could be traded without recourse (well, he had recourse to refuse to negotiate a long term deal, but apparently Pioli is perfectly happy to let Cassel prove he can be as effective with far less of a team than the Patriots).

So given a situation where Cassel is now getting $15 million to start, risking injury as he heads into defacto free agency again next year - or $15 million to back up Brady - not starting, not risking injury, nor potentially playing at a lower level reducing his value - Cassel and his agent might actually have opted to remain with the Patriots as there's a significant risk/reward to playing this season... though if he does well he may indeed break the bank with a long term deal in 2010.

So indeed - admitting that no one knows what Cassel could have or would have done in hindsight or if he fully realized the implications of his signing the tender - it's impossible to say that there was no risk of him not signing the tender.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm pretty sure everyone now freely admits that the market for Cassel was no where near as broad as everyone thought. There was one team willing to make a deal, and a 2 others that were in the "maybe" category and they needed to be part of a complex three way deal.

With so few teams interested I'm not sure we can so easilly discount the prospects of being stuck with Cassel as "nil" - though the Pats had the ability to take far less than a 2nd, 3rd or even just a 4th round pick to get the deal done.

If there had been no market, the Pats would have found a way to lower his cap hit (as I pointed out before, ironically, it would involve giving Cassel more money). They obviously wouldn't have had nearly as much activity in FA as they did, though.

That said, didn't word come out that near the last minute Detroit had offered #33 straight up for Cassel [but would have given more for Cutler]?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm pretty sure everyone now freely admits that a lot of GMs had their heads up their collective ***e$ when it came to Cassel. There was one team willing to make a deal, and a 2 others that were in the "maybe" category and they needed to be part of a complex three way deal.

With so few teams interested I'm not sure we can so easilly discount the prospects of being stuck with Cassel as "nil" - though the Pats had the ability to take far less than a 2nd, 3rd or even just a 4th round pick to get the deal done.

On second thought—fixed your post for you.

 

[Grizzafted]

Interesting tidbit I picked up on today was that the Panthers sent three reps to Larry English's pro day.

Larry English, my friends, will not be on the board at pick number 59, and the Carolina Panthers know that. He may be gone by 34 in fact.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Interesting tidbit I picked up on today was that the Panthers sent three reps to Larry English's pro day.

Larry English, my friends, will not be on the board at pick number 59, and the Carolina Panthers know that. He may be gone by 34 in fact.

So? They can't do jack squat with the Patriots until Peppers signs his tender, and BB has said he's not going to negotiate with the Panthers via Peppers.

 

[IndianPat]

Peppers will kill our cap space too, if we trade for him. It is obvious by now that Peppers is not signing for anything less than the salary of top 10 OLB or even a top 5 OLB. He may even be thinking higher. I dont see him playing for Pats until he is 35, frustrated at having a great career without a championship to - which is the reason why Jason Taylor will play for us this year.

 

[Grizzafted]

Knock Knock, anyone there? I don't trust a word any of these guys are saying publicly. Fact is the Panthers saw fit to send three guys to a pro workout of a player who'll be gone far before they pick, and who they literally cannot afford to sign right now. Maybe that's just routine, or maybe they are thinking about what they would do with the 23rd pick in the draft.

 

[Deus Irae]

Again, go back and check the threads. There were just as many people convinced that Cassel would NEVER sign the tender *cough Deus Irae cough * until a trade was worked out as there were convinced, as you say, that he would have had to be a friggen idiot not to sign it.

No matter how much they insisted they "knew" he'd never sign it - sign it he did. And now there's even some information suggesting that Cassel didn't realize the implication of signing was that he could be traded without recourse (well, he had recourse to refuse to negotiate a long term deal, but apparently Pioli is perfectly happy to let Cassel prove he can be as effective with far less of a team than the Patriots).

So given a situation where Cassel is now getting $15 million to start, risking injury as he heads into defacto free agency again next year - or $15 million to back up Brady - not starting, not risking injury, nor potentially playing at a lower level reducing his value - Cassel and his agent might actually have opted to remain with the Patriots as there's a significant risk/reward to playing this season... though if he does well he may indeed break the bank with a long term deal in 2010.

So indeed - admitting that no one knows what Cassel could have or would have done in hindsight or if he fully realized the implications of his signing the tender - it's impossible to say that there was no risk of him not signing the tender.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/185916-cassel-now-worth-1st-round-pick.html

Unless I made a more strident post in another thread, you seem to have me mixed up with others as far as all the NEVER sort of attitude goes.

That being said, you're correct in that I did think Cassel would shop himself around.

 

[mgteich]

So, it seems that the difference between this situation and that of the patriots is
1) The patriots were NEVER going to jeapordize their off-season by waiting more than a week or so to get a deal done.
2) Cassel was willing to sign, removing any limits on who the trade can be made with.
3) Belichick KNEW that there was one team willing to pay Cassel $14M for his services in 2009. I suspect that the deal was in the works before the tag was tendered. BTW, there were NO OTHER offers that did not require a new contract from Cassel.

Personally, I think that it was KC that was raped on the deal. No one else would have given as much for Cassel on a one-year contract. KC could have waited for a couple of weeks and driven the price down. The risk was that Cassel would have negotiated a long-term contract with some team in Colorado.

 

[Patjew]

What exactly is going on with Peppers now? I know the current situation (stalemate), but it seems completely stagnant with absolutely no movement by anyone. Obviously I'm not privy to trade or contract talks, but does anyone think anything (with the Pats or someone else) is actually happening related to Peppers right now?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Well, there's very little he can do about it... I think that was the general sentiment.

In any event, people around here need to consider the possibility of a Cassel deal dragging out as well - and that would have been as good for the Patriots as this situation has been for the Patriots.

Back when talk about tagging Cassel first arose there were endless numbers of fans chortling that it was no big deal and that there was no risk to the Patriots. I think most of them now would have to admit that they were wrong.

No, I think what's happening here (and it happens a lot around here lately) is that people who were dead wrong feel the need to point at a totally different situation in a pathetic attempt to make a case they were the ones who were right all along. Message board egos...

I believe I was the first person here to suggest Cassel could be tagged and traded. The Walmart evaluators guffawed. Then the worry warts started in on how he could screw us over. I made a couple of points consistently that tended to fall on deaf ears... they would tag him only if they believed there was a market for him, that his market would be determined by his performance down the stretch, that he would cooperate with their efforts to trade him because he wanted to start, they trusted him to when most here and elsewhere didn't, he owed them and Tom for drafting, developing and giving him a shot.

One of the things Bill knew was several teams were sitting on enormous cap space including the team Scott left here to run. There were two ways to approach this situation. They could have let Cassel and his agent shop themselves. But that would have taken time. Cassel's agent wanted to lock in a mimumum guaranteed payday for his client, and apparently that was exactly what BB wanted. The threat to sign and lock them in was never a concern. Once he signed he was tradeable. The possibility of Cassel withholding cooperation was also made moot because BB was looking for value, not a windfall. And he was trading him to someone he had hoped to be able to play for...

And oddly while the Cassel camp expected to negotiate a deal as part of the trade, Scott chose to let the cap pay his new QB for now. Apparently he's not in a mad rush to buy other goods with it. I believe he said this week that his mom told him just because you have money doesn't mean you HAVE TO spent it...They can revisit a long term deal for Matt next week or next year. If it's working out both sides will want to get a long term deal done. And if not, they move on. Cassel would have netted $15M either way...

Coulda, woulda, shoulda aside, Bill had the whole thing figured out to NE's advantage all along. Go figure...

It really isn't rocket science if you study the man and the system instead of trying to second guess it.

 

[patchick]

You know, I'm not sure I even understand this thread.

Cassel was tagged. Cassel was immediately traded for a draft pick, releasing his cap space. The Pats proceeded to sign other free agents. This is all exactly what most people (on this board and elsewhere) expected to happen.

But because another player in a very different situation is engaged in a costly standoff with his team, that "proves" that the Pats took on a huge risk and that the people who expected the above scenario to unfold smoothly were wrong?

In the end, all the fuss about the actual signing of the tender is kind of missing the point, IMO. In fact, of those who were most worried about the risks of applying the tag, half thought the big risk was that he would sign it, half that he wouldn't! The main thing is that it was a flexible, amiable situation where both sides wanted everything done quickly, and so it was.

 

[Miguel]

No, I think what's happening here (and it happens a lot around here lately) is that people who were dead wrong feel the need to point at a totally different situation in a pathetic attempt to make a case they were the ones who were right all along. Message board egos...

I believe I was the first person here to suggest Cassel could be tagged and traded.

Simply not true.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...s-like-competent-nfl-starter.html#post1031755

Your words on 9/13.

Start of quote.
Because it's too early to?

I've gone on record saying there are two possibilities (neither of which involves applying the franchise tag at more than Brady will make in 2009...): Emphasis added.

They can try to get an interim deal done with Cassel, one that doesn't involve a tremendous dead cap hit if he's traded yet remains attractive to him and another team willing to trade for him and lucrative to him if/when he starts or is traded to a team as a starter, but becomes costly to us if he isn't dealt before draft day 2010 while remaining a backup here.

Or they can thank him for his service which would have already provided tremendous value from a 7th rounder (albeit in exchange for pretty awesome coaching and exposure) and let him persue his future in FA.

What they decide to do will depend on lots of things we as fans can't begin to know, inclulding how they really feel about Gutz and O'Connell and how or if they continue to develop or how they feel about any other potential FA QB going forward and what Cassel has already shown them (which many here remain in denial over) and will continue to show them in the next 6-8 weeks. And how Brady's rehab truly projects.

They would only consider tagging him IMO as a pretty straight forward tag and trade looking not necessarily even for the first round compensation but for value and some control over where he goes if he looks above league average and Brady's rehab is going swimmingly and one of O'Connell or Gutierrez or some other QB elicits reasonable confidence as a viable #2 going forward.

End of quote.

I believe that Robo729 was actually the first to mention tagging Cassel and that was around the 9th of September.

This is an excellent example of "people who were dead wrong feel the need to point at a totally different situation in a pathetic attempt to make a case they were the ones who were right all along. Message board egos..."

For the record, the following was where I was wrong about Cassel.

1.) On 9/9 I posted that I doubted that Cassel would get tagged. I later changed my mind thinking that he would get tagged and would be traded in the first days of free agency.
2.) I had sometimes posted that Cassel could be traded w/o signing the tender first. After doing further research on the issue I stopped that practice.
3.) I had predicted that Peter King would correct his estimate on how much it would cost to tag Cassel because his estimate did not include Gisele's husband.
4.) I thought that once Cassel was traded to a new team that he would immediately sign a long-term deal with his new team.

 

[Miguel]

What the Peppers story does not say is that as of March 18th that the Panthers were 5.11 million under the cap.

Cap room for all 32 teams - KFFL Community

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Simply not true.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...s-like-competent-nfl-starter.html#post1031755

Your words on 9/13.

Start of quote.
Because it's too early to?

I've gone on record saying there are two possibilities (neither of which involves applying the franchise tag at more than Brady will make in 2009...): Emphasis added.

They can try to get an interim deal done with Cassel, one that doesn't involve a tremendous dead cap hit if he's traded yet remains attractive to him and another team willing to trade for him and lucrative to him if/when he starts or is traded to a team as a starter, but becomes costly to us if he isn't dealt before draft day 2010 while remaining a backup here.

Or they can thank him for his service which would have already provided tremendous value from a 7th rounder (albeit in exchange for pretty awesome coaching and exposure) and let him persue his future in FA.

What they decide to do will depend on lots of things we as fans can't begin to know, inclulding how they really feel about Gutz and O'Connell and how or if they continue to develop or how they feel about any other potential FA QB going forward and what Cassel has already shown them (which many here remain in denial over) and will continue to show them in the next 6-8 weeks. And how Brady's rehab truly projects.

They would only consider tagging him IMO as a pretty straight forward tag and trade looking not necessarily even for the first round compensation but for value and some control over where he goes if he looks above league average and Brady's rehab is going swimmingly and one of O'Connell or Gutierrez or some other QB elicits reasonable confidence as a viable #2 going forward. Emphasis added.

End of quote.

I believe that Robo729 was actually the first to mention tagging Cassel and that was around the 9th of September.

This is an excellent example of "people who were dead wrong feel the need to point at a totally different situation in a pathetic attempt to make a case they were the ones who were right all along. Message board egos..."

For the record, the following was where I was wrong about Cassel.

1.) On 9/9 I posted that I doubted that Cassel would get tagged. I later changed my mind thinking that he would get tagged and would be traded in the first days of free agency.
2.) I had sometimes posted that Cassel could be traded w/o signing the tender first. After doing further research on the issue I stopped that practice.
3.) I had predicted that Peter King would correct his estimate on how much it would cost to tag Cassel because his estimate did not include Gisele's husband.
4.) I thought that once Cassel was traded to a new team that he would immediately sign a long-term deal with his new team.

Depends on what you're talking about being dead wrong about. Lots of discussions go on here daily, often meandering through any number of what if's... I always saw potential in Cassel and realized BB did too, and I always knew BB would choose to seek added value for a valuable asset - particularly a developed QB as drafting, developing and flipping those for added value has long been one of his strategic goals. I opined early on that getting an interim deal to extend Cassel (before the bye) MIGHT be one possible way to do that, particularly IF they had any lingering concern about Brady's availability for 2009. I also said that barring that if they felt he had significant value and market at the end of the season they would tag and trade (and not retain...) him. Most everyone who believed that assumed it would play out with Cassel getting a long term deal. BB was again ahead of the curve realizing with all the cap flush teams heading into a potential uncapped year that need not be the case. Pioli is taking advantage of that to test drive Matt in a new scenario, although I'm sure if and when he's comfortable or feels 2010 will in fact be capped he will proceed on a long term deal.

We had the Cassel is crap crowd, the tag is crippling crowd (some of whom still want to argue how it could have been...), the expensive insurance is worth it crowd, the Cassel will balk and be uncooperative crowd and even the keep Cassel and trade Brady crowd posting here over the last 6 months. We also had the Cassel can start and wants to and has always had value and would be tagged and traded without acrimony if this FO believed sufficient market existed crowd. So wrong is truly relative.

 

[NE39]

Not to get sidetracked, but I wanted to post this, and since this seems to be the current Peppers-related threat it seemed like a good place.

The article has a Carolina beat writer breaking down where Peppers might end up next season, giving why it might work for the team trading, the Panthers, why it makes sense and why it doesn't. He then gives his estimate of the odds of each situation.

Here are his breakdown of the odds:

NE - 3 to 1
Phi - 5 to 1
Car - 15 to 1
Dal - 20 to 1
Was - 30 to 1

I find it interesting he doesn't rate Peppers staying in Carolina higher, given he covers the team closely.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I believe I was the first person here to suggest Cassel could be tagged and traded. The Walmart evaluators guffawed. Then the worry warts started in on how he could screw us over. I made a couple of points consistently that tended to fall on deaf ears... they would tag him only if they believed there was a market for him, that his market would be determined by his performance down the stretch, that he would cooperate with their efforts to trade him because he wanted to start, they trusted him to when most here and elsewhere didn't, he owed them and Tom for drafting, developing and giving him a shot.

One of the things Bill knew was several teams were sitting on enormous cap space including the team Scott left here to run. There were two ways to approach this situation. They could have let Cassel and his agent shop themselves. But that would have taken time. Cassel's agent wanted to lock in a mimumum guaranteed payday for his client, and apparently that was exactly what BB wanted. The threat to sign and lock them in was never a concern. Once he signed he was tradeable. The possibility of Cassel withholding cooperation was also made moot because BB was looking for value, not a windfall. And he was trading him to someone he had hoped to be able to play for...

Coulda, woulda, shoulda aside, Bill had the whole thing figured out to NE's advantage all along. Go figure...

It really isn't rocket science if you study the man and the system instead of trying to second guess it.

Great post. Spot on. Way to counter the revisionist history.

 

[JoeSixPat]

What the Peppers story does not say is that as of March 18th that the Panthers were 5.11 million under the cap.

Cap room for all 32 teams - KFFL Community

I didn't see that figure, but it did note the various players that have not been resigned or extended - which presumably would eat up that $5.1 million (a portion of which needs to be reserved for rookies, doesn't it?)

I'd think that every team is currently under the cap, no?

 

[JoeSixPat]

For the record, the following was where I was wrong about Cassel.

1.) On 9/9 I posted that I doubted that Cassel would get tagged. I later changed my mind thinking that he would get tagged and would be traded in the first days of free agency.
2.) I had sometimes posted that Cassel could be traded w/o signing the tender first. After doing further research on the issue I stopped that practice.
3.) I had predicted that Peter King would correct his estimate on how much it would cost to tag Cassel because his estimate did not include Gisele's husband.
4.) I thought that once Cassel was traded to a new team that he would immediately sign a long-term deal with his new team.

I too first doubted that he would be tagged - at first because when it was first mentioned he hadn't played enough to justify what we then thought would be "only" a $13 million cap hit...

Then, as he played better, it became clear that although there was some risk involved to the Patriots, they would tag him - but I wanted to be clear about the risk.

A great many "Walmart evaluators" felt there was no risk to the Patriots - no way that there weren't a half dozen teams we'd be negotiating with and no risk that Cassel would even sign the tender early, potentially leaving the Patriots obliged to be on the hook for that amount, and/or giving up at least some of his ability to block a trade to a team unprepared or unable to accept a nearly $15 million one year contract.

Well he did "run right down to Foxboro to sign the tender" - and there weren't a half dozen teams who the Patriots were negotiating with - and there WAS a risk to the Patriots as evidenced by the Panthers situation, though as we learned there were pros and cons to having Cassel sign the tender.

Give Belichick the credit for moving quickly once Cassel had signed to get a deal done fast - because who knows how long the deal would have been on the table, especially if he started getting cute trying to leverage one team off another.

It all worked out well - but let's not have any revisionist history that all of this was done without risk.

Indeed, with the reports that Cassel's camp is saying that they didn't realize how signing the tender affected his ability to be traded, if Cassel could do it all over again, one can make the case he'd do what Peppers is doing right now - leaving the Patriots in a cap situation that would not have allowed them to make the moves they have thus far.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

So this thread got me to thinking what stupid thing did I say back in October....

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...165593-downside-franchising-cassel-page3.html

Not bad I mentioned Cassel, the Chiefs and a 2nd round pick all in the same post......