People under-estimating the loss of McGinest?

[DaBruinz]

Maybe I'm over-estimating the loss of McGinest, but I don't believe I am. It galls me to hear people say that "Our defense was awesome at the end of last year and we only lost McGinest." Why? Because McGinest was one of the leaders on this defense. He was out there every game the last two years rarely going to the sidelines for a breather. How many key plays did he make for us?

While there isn't much of a drop off from McGinest to Vrabel (and there is a drop off), what about the drop off from Vrabel to say, Beisel or Claridge? And is the combination of the two drop offs larger or smaller than if we were going from McGinest to Lawson and leaving Vrabel in the middle with Bruschi? The final piece to take into consideration is what is the drop off from Maroney to Brian Calhoun or Maurice Drew?

This defense is already going to be significantly different from last year's team because McGinest is gone. Vrabel and he have different pass rush skills. McGinest would go around the edge. Vrabel likes to shoot the inside hole. Having Vrabel lined up opposite Colvin is a defense we've never seen before. Well, maybe in 2004 before Colvin got hurt, but I can't remember how we started. Anyways. I hope that my fears are misplaced. But lets give Willie the respect he deserves and not pretend like his loss is easily covered.

 

[363839]

This is why I was hoping they would pick Manny Lawson.
Even saw in a publication that he could be the next Willie McGinest.
The irony.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that the loss of Willie will be great, but bb knew that when he let him go, while having plently of cap money available.

Clearly, bb does not agree with our assessment of Lawson as ready to start at OLB; otherwise he would have drafted him.

 

[skri65]

I give Mcginest all the respect in the world. And I don't believe that ANYONE, at this point, could replace him. However, with that said, I think our defense will still be good. I think if we move Vrabel outside and put a Beisel/Claridge/UFA/FA in the middle our defense still has the POTENTIAL to become just as potent as it always has been.

We now have a young O. An O that is set for a while (if/when Branch is resigned). We have a young secondary, and a young D-Line. We have a young crop of LB's, some of whom may evolve into LB studs--you never know. This crop is still growing (we just signed, according to once source, Roach).

I don't mean to underestimate Mcginest's loss. He was and still is a great player. I just believe that is a loss that our D CAN, over time, get through. And who knows, maybe come the season opener our LB's will be as good as ever. Time will tell.

 

[BradyBirdYazOrr]

Vrabel is better than willie....willies old willies gone....let go of willie

 

[shirtsleeve]

The thing that really really knaws at my stomach about all of this. BB toasted a third round pick to move up in the second to get Jackson. That same third rounder would have moved us to #16 and grabbed Greenway. Perhaps he tried but could not get it done.

 

[patchick]

I do keep thinking about BBs quip: "He's a role player. His role is to play every down." What has changed on the roster so that we don't need that "role" any more?

 

[pats1]

Remember, "the whole is not always the sum of the parts." A defense with, say, TBC in there for Willie could still be as good as defense with Willie.

 

[PonyExpress]

Maybe I'm over-estimating the loss of McGinest, but I don't believe I am. It galls me to hear people say that "Our defense was awesome at the end of last year and we only lost McGinest." Why? Because McGinest was one of the leaders on this defense. He was out there every game the last two years rarely going to the sidelines for a breather. How many key plays did he make for us?

While there isn't much of a drop off from McGinest to Vrabel (and there is a drop off), what about the drop off from Vrabel to say, Beisel or Claridge? And is the combination of the two drop offs larger or smaller than if we were going from McGinest to Lawson and leaving Vrabel in the middle with Bruschi? The final piece to take into consideration is what is the drop off from Maroney to Brian Calhoun or Maurice Drew?

This defense is already going to be significantly different from last year's team because McGinest is gone. Vrabel and he have different pass rush skills. McGinest would go around the edge. Vrabel likes to shoot the inside hole. Having Vrabel lined up opposite Colvin is a defense we've never seen before. Well, maybe in 2004 before Colvin got hurt, but I can't remember how we started. Anyways. I hope that my fears are misplaced. But lets give Willie the respect he deserves and not pretend like his loss is easily covered.

The Vrabel of 2003-4 was comparable to the McGinest of 2004-5 against the pass, but McGinest was (surprisingly) superior against the run, according to my own unofficial rankings (http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=34158). McGinest ranked in the top 3rd of the league overall as a DE/OLB during that time. Anyone who dismisses the loss of McGinest is foolish. Moving Vrabel outside again seems like it would compensate, but Vrabel got his pass rush production from the blind side, and that was in the 2004 season and previous. Who knows whether he can match that production from the opposite side and two years later in his career. Also the durabililty of Bruschi and Vrabel become more of a concern each year, and quality depth at LB has been depleted. I see the LB corps as an area of major concern. I am puzzled by the Pats direction.

 

[maverick4]

re

Assuming all the moves this off-season were made with purpose and intelligent reason, I think Belichick has been very telling about his linebackers.

Maybe Tully Banta-Cain is better than we all thought, or Claridge is ready to play in the middle. Maybe Monty Beisel realized how much he sucked, and decided to get better.

Of course, if we pick up a great linebacker in the next two months, just ignore what I said =P

 

[PatsSteve1]

Maybe I'm over-estimating the loss of McGinest, but I don't believe I am. It galls me to hear people say that "Our defense was awesome at the end of last year and we only lost McGinest." Why? Because McGinest was one of the leaders on this defense. He was out there every game the last two years rarely going to the sidelines for a breather. How many key plays did he make for us?

* I agree. I also think when the front 7 got back together last year when Seymour and Tedy B came back it's a big reason why the DB's seemed to play better. Dumping Starks and playing Hawkins at SS helped, too, but I think they're just an average group. Even in 2004 it was the play of the front 7 that helped cover up the replacement CB's. I haven't yet seen anything from Tully or Beisel that tells me they can fill the Willie hole. And I haven't seen Claridge at all and no one else has either for at least a year -

 

[spacecrime]

I do keep thinking about BBs quip: "He's a role player. His role is to play every down." What has changed on the roster so that we don't need that "role" any more?

What has changed is that WMG is gone. We will still have a player out there every down, maybe the same palyer, maybe not.

I think people are being emotional about this, rather than business-like logical. Were you here in August 2003? Do you remember the predictions of 0-16 after Bb cut Milloy?

Same with WMG. We like him and are sad to see him go and remember all the good things he did. Those are good things. The "not good" thing is then to confuse those feelings with teh belief that he is worth to us what Cleveland is paying him.

I'll miss him, but I don't think our defense will suffer without him. Someone else will step up. That is what backups are for. If no one steps up, then the team isn't as good as we thought.

I think we are really good, and can absorb the loss of WMG without a hiccup. If he ever plays in Foxboro again, I will cheer him and Romeo. I suspect they get a standing O.

But that doesn't mean we should have paid him what he is gong to be earning.

 

[the taildragger]

willie's experience was a tremendous asset, but we knew he was on the way out...that was contingency plan A.

Losing Willie in the middle of the season would pose a bigger challenge, but they have 4 months to get set.

but no, we're not just going to replace all that experience in one offseason.

on the other hand, from weeks 4-9, it was almost like Willie wasn't even on the field...not blaming him, just pointing out that Willie wasn't the one-man wrecking crew he was earlier in his career (the sacks against Jacksonville were the result of great coverage -- despite all the criticism, the secondary was lights out down the stretch). willie evolved into a solid contributor to our overall "team defense" -- I didn't see any domination out there, especially considering all the talent around him.

When Bruschi and Harrison were lost, we were missing the two captains in the middle of the field...the signal callers...how we nearly overcame that (and a million other injuries) I'll never know. At one point we were without three potential HoFers on D (Bru, Sey, RH) -- so call me crazy for having a little more optimism this year, even without Willie at such an advanced stage in his career.

IMO, the question isn't whether we miss Willie, it's how do you attack this D?

Impenetrable D-line, colvin is 10x the player he was going into 05, Vrabel is now a force wherever he's needed, Bruschi is good to go, stacked secondary, Harrison could be a ridiculous bonus...and keep in mind you're probably playing the Pats "uphill" this year.

If I'm an OC, I'm praying the Pats suffer more injuries again.

There's always turnover. We can focus on the "holes," or look at what's acutally there. If anyone can think of a significantly better defense on paper, I'd like to know.

 

[hwc]

An NFL roster is the sum of 53 parts. You will drive yourself nuts focusing on one player (such as McGinnest) in vacuum.

The fact of the matter is that it would have taken a huge contract to match Cleveland's offer...for a very old player. What are the implications of that? Could we have re-signed Seymour?

Any decision to keep or lose a player has offsetting pluses and minuses.

Every roster changes from year to year. Count on losing good players every year, like clockwork. It's unavoidable. That's why you restock with the draft -- every year.

 

[rabthepat]

Willie Who?

Maybe I'm over-estimating the loss of McGinest, but I don't believe I am. It galls me to hear people say that "Our defense was awesome at the end of last year and we only lost McGinest." Why? Because McGinest was one of the leaders on this defense. He was out there every game the last two years rarely going to the sidelines for a breather. How many key plays did he make for us?

While there isn't much of a drop off from McGinest to Vrabel (and there is a drop off), what about the drop off from Vrabel to say, Beisel or Claridge? And is the combination of the two drop offs larger or smaller than if we were going from McGinest to Lawson and leaving Vrabel in the middle with Bruschi? The final piece to take into consideration is what is the drop off from Maroney to Brian Calhoun or Maurice Drew?

This defense is already going to be significantly different from last year's team because McGinest is gone. Vrabel and he have different pass rush skills. McGinest would go around the edge. Vrabel likes to shoot the inside hole. Having Vrabel lined up opposite Colvin is a defense we've never seen before. Well, maybe in 2004 before Colvin got hurt, but I can't remember how we started. Anyways. I hope that my fears are misplaced. But lets give Willie the respect he deserves and not pretend like his loss is easily covered.

You are either a Patriots player/fan or not. Once you're NOT then adios don't let the door hit you in the butt. Time to move on. I personally look forward to change because it brings opportunity. Goodbye Bledsoe hello Brady.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Was it 7 mil, or 7.5... in all the excitement, I kind of lost track myself....

I agree, Bruinz. At Willie's OLB position, we probably lose something, whichever route we go - unless there is a plan to replace him still in FA with someone comparable (or replace Vrabel at ILB and move him back outside). Even then, I think we lose him because "someone comparable" still has to ramp up.

Whatever the contingency plan, we're going to have to get it done differently, with a different skill set, and you might even stipulate that all told, it will be an inferior skill set.

But then we get a full season (God willing) of Colvin finally producing, and, whoever starts at Willie's spot, a whole season of week-to-week improvement, almost guaranteed.

Now the big question: What are the alternatives?

Keep a 35 year old guy, at $7M+/year? I'm not even sure they plan to do that with Colvin next year, once he's pushing the $7M cap hit envelope - unless he truly excels in 06. Or maybe it's Colvin yes, Ol' Willie, no. He's not the man he once was - who was it here who said he doesn't run he lumbers? Well, he lumbered to a post-season sack record, and regular season consistent production. No argument there. Just a question mark as to how long you can even buy with him.

So as others here have said, it's time to move on. No need for rosy glasses (hey, we've got Rosie Colvin - at least for now.) If we plug in the spot with someone who pulls his weight, we still have on of the best front sevens in football. If not, yes, it hurts. Yes, we may need to put more points on the board. But you tell me - do you think we're more or less equipped to do so?

The money is going to tell the story every off-season, of how the Pats will have to win to make a run. The fact that the money tells that story, guarantees that the Pats will make a run.

I can feel the pain, Bruinz, but yeah, the Pats will move past it. It won't always be pretty, and it won't always be easy, but the D of 2006 will gel. Those rooks and 2nd and 3rd year guys are only going to get better.

And there's $14M left to spend. Something big is going to happen, or several something mediums are going to happen, you can bet on it.

We'll be there in January, buddy... and if Cleveland's there with us this year, my best wishes to Romeo and Willie and company... until and unless they play us.

(My personal favorite scenario... they DO make the playoffs, and Willie gets to be face to face with Peyton three or four times.)

PFnV

 

[skri65]

Was it 7 mil, or 7.5... in all the excitement, I kind of lost track myself....

I agree, Bruinz. At Willie's OLB position, we probably lose something, whichever route we go - unless there is a plan to replace him still in FA with someone comparable (or replace Vrabel at ILB and move him back outside). Even then, I think we lose him because "someone comparable" still has to ramp up.

Whatever the contingency plan, we're going to have to get it done differently, with a different skill set, and you might even stipulate that all told, it will be an inferior skill set.

But then we get a full season (God willing) of Colvin finally producing, and, whoever starts at Willie's spot, a whole season of week-to-week improvement, almost guaranteed.

Now the big question: What are the alternatives?

Keep a 35 year old guy, at $7M+/year? I'm not even sure they plan to do that with Colvin next year, once he's pushing the $7M cap hit envelope - unless he truly excels in 06. Or maybe it's Colvin yes, Ol' Willie, no. He's not the man he once was - who was it here who said he doesn't run he lumbers? Well, he lumbered to a post-season sack record, and regular season consistent production. No argument there. Just a question mark as to how long you can even buy with him.

So as others here have said, it's time to move on. No need for rosy glasses (hey, we've got Rosie Colvin - at least for now.) If we plug in the spot with someone who pulls his weight, we still have on of the best front sevens in football. If not, yes, it hurts. Yes, we may need to put more points on the board. But you tell me - do you think we're more or less equipped to do so?

The money is going to tell the story every off-season, of how the Pats will have to win to make a run. The fact that the money tells that story, guarantees that the Pats will make a run.

I can feel the pain, Bruinz, but yeah, the Pats will move past it. It won't always be pretty, and it won't always be easy, but the D of 2006 will gel. Those rooks and 2nd and 3rd year guys are only going to get better.

And there's $14M left to spend. Something big is going to happen, or several something mediums are going to happen, you can bet on it.

We'll be there in January, buddy... and if Cleveland's there with us this year, my best wishes to Romeo and Willie and company... until and unless they play us.

(My personal favorite scenario... they DO make the playoffs, and Willie gets to be face to face with Peyton three or four times.)

PFnV

A VERY fine and balanced analysis.

 

[BelichickFan]

My immediate reaction is that it's difficult to be too concerned as Belichick evidently isn't. He's had an entire FA period and draft to do something and has done nothing. Without trying to sound unconcerned - I know how I read that inactivity.

 

[DaBruinz]

You are either a Patriots player/fan or not. Once you're NOT then adios don't let the door hit you in the butt. Time to move on. I personally look forward to change because it brings opportunity. Goodbye Bledsoe hello Brady.

Go back to lurking if you aren't going to bring anything constructive.

 

[DaBruinz]

Guys, my BIGGEST problem is the lack of respect some people are showing Willie in acting like he means nothing and that we are fine and won't miss him. And there have been SEVERAL posts that act like that.