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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by GameDay, Dec 6, 2007.

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  1. GameDay

    GameDay Rookie

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    1. Exhibit 1A shows unadjusted data of NE offense (blue) vs. Pit defense (green) with respect to their scoring efficiencies for a given start drive position. NE (blue) is way off the chart compared with the average of NFL (red).

    Every time NE has the ball in the 50-80 yrd range, NE can expect scoring ~3.4 pts.

    PIT defense (green) deserves top billing, is way below the NFL average. Each time their opponents have the ball in the 50-80 yards range, PIT D expects to give up only ~0.8 pt.

    2. Exhibit 1B shows NE defense vs. PIT offense. Both are middle of the road, although PIT O is slightly above average (hurt by the MIA game), and NE D is just about average.

    The wild card is NE defense, which has a large spread of uncertainty.

    3. These data however are meaningless as they have to be adjusted to actual play capability against their opponents' quality. There is a lot of uncertainty in model adjustment owing to insufficient data. If we accept these fudge factors, the result is Exh. 2.

    Exhibit 2 says that when NE has the ball (blue), it scores more than when PIT has the ball (green). There is a small advantage in special team in terms of starting positions as well, but not much.

    So if there are 11 to 12 drives for each team in the game, with starting position around ~70 yard line, NE can outscore PIT by:

    11 or 12 x 0.85 pt= 9.3 or 10.2 pts.

    An advantage in turnover can swing ~5. pts each way (depending on position).

    FWIW.

    WARNING: entertainment only. Not for use for gambling. :)

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  2. jimache

    jimache PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Factor in weather conditions in your statistical modeling and you have something there.

    Boy I am glad I'm not the only one crazy about numbers.


    Go Pats, f***'em all
  3. 5 Rings for Brady!!

    5 Rings for Brady!! Rookie

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    Thanks. Another interesting post.

    I am not predicting a blow out of any type this weekend. I think the game stays pretty even. I would start with the 10 points and then add or subtract turn-overs...

    The Eagles/Ravens games should have been blow outs if the refs got their heads out of their asses, but the Steelers game should be tight no matter what, IMO.
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