Pats vs. Niners - Initial Thoughts

[Rusty Coupe]

From the Denver fans POV
The AFC is down to a two-horse race - Mile High Report

Now, let me just get this out of the way first. I expect NE to win out and HOU to lose at least one game. The Patriots play SF at home and NE is a force in Foxboro. Besides after yesterday, even if SF's defense can slow them down, I don't expect their offense to keep up.

This is more a philosophical breakdown and the problems NE creates. With Gronk and Hernandez, the Pats can essentially run their entire offense from 12 personnel. Their parts are so interchangeable that they can be moved all over the formation to create mismatches. They can split their back wide and bring Hernandez into the backfield creating a mismatch on the LB. Both TE and WR can exploit the outside, the middle, and the seem, and when coverage is good, you still have checkdowns capable of getting big gains.

Nothing earthshattering, but they talk about football, not the usual crapola, interesting read.

 

[Triumph]

The SF defense is solid everywhere.

Better DL, better LBs and better DBs. I think they will do a very good job of taking away the short pass that Brady thrives on. It would not surprise me if this looked like the 2010 post season game vs the Jets. The Pats are going to need to run the ball here.

SF offense isnt shabby either. Moss, Crabtree, Manningham, Vern Davis, Frank Gore they have some weapons and Kapernick can make plays with his mobility.

The travel from West to East may have an effect on SF as well as bad NE weather.

 

[CityOfChampions]

I wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh think's hes tricky and starts Alex Smith this game out of nowhere. Kaep is more dangerous with his legs but also more dangerous to make a mistake plus he has only thrown for 1 touchdown. Alex Smith isn't the most flashy but I think he's a solid choice in a game like this where one mistake is the difference in the game.

 

[Metaphors]

This is easily the most interesting matchup of the year. Here are the keys to the game from my perspective:

1) Pats offense needs to limit negative plays. No turnovers and limit killer holding and dead ball penalties. Account for ASmith and that is 2/3 of the Niners sack potential. Take the available profit on each play and don't get greedy.

2) Pats defense needs to keep the Niners predictable. The weather may assist with this. CK hasn't passed for 250 yds in his 4.5 starts...so make him try to get 300+ Sunday night. Make the Niners play lefthanded by using SEC linebackers (DAMN YOU GRUDEN!!!) CK is best when he has the whole playbook available to him. Control the down/distance and his efficiency plummets.

3) The 49ers have lost a few playmakers this year that could affect the game Sunday. Kyle Williams (WR, KR) and Kendall Hunter (RB) are on IR and Manningham didn't play against Miami. That puts more of a focus on Gore and Crabtree...and potentially simplifies the task of getting the 49ers out of their comfort zone.

4) The 49ers surprisingly used the TEs very little against the Fins (3 targets). I expect that to change on Sunday. The Pats will need to come up with a coverage scheme that keeps Davis/Walker from running free downfield. If they can keep the damage to underneath throws and tackle well, that will go a long way to keeping the Niners out of the end zone.

5) The Pats are a slightly lefthanded running team, but the Niners are very lefthanded. It will be critical for Jones to hold the edge against Staley and keep the Niners from getting outside.

6) The 49ers have been vulnerable recently to the short passing game. Amendola caught 10+ balls in the tie and Sproles/Bush were successful catching the ball in their games. Even Stephen Jackson (with Amendola out) did well a couple of weeks ago in the Rams win. If the Pats can stay on schedule, there should be opportunities to move the ball.

This game could already be won or lost based on the gameplan in place for both teams. Both teams execute very well and typically don't beat themselves. They each have weak points and they each have the horses to attack them. Monday was an important game for playoff positioning. This Sunday will be a great gauge to see if the team has progressed from being a favorite to reach the SB to being a favorite to win it.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

I wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh think's hes tricky and starts Alex Smith this game out of nowhere. Kaep is more dangerous with his legs but also more dangerous to make a mistake plus he has only thrown for 1 touchdown. Alex Smith isn't the most flashy but I think he's a solid choice in a game like this where one mistake is the difference in the game.

No way Jose. Harbaugh, even though he's beginning to be regarded as much better than any coach since maybe even the great Bill Walsh, has received some heat for dragging out his starting QB decision in recent weeks. He's even been accused of starting a quarterback controversy on his own. He has since said it's Kaepernick until he says otherwise. He's not doing what you suggest.

 

[CityOfChampions]

No way Jose. Harbaugh, even though he's beginning to be regarded as much better than any coach since maybe even the great Bill Walsh, has received some heat for dragging out his starting QB decision in recent weeks. He's even been accused of starting a quarterback controversy on his own. He has since said it's Kaepernick until he says otherwise. He's not doing what you suggest.

That's why he's stubborn.

 

[mayoclinic]

San Fransisco keeps the same 11 defensive players on the field.

By about midway through the first quarter, look for them to be on the turf grasping for air and upchucking.

It's called "hurry up on steriods".

That's the exact same defense that "shut down" New Orleans in the playoffs.

The reality is there is nobody that wouldn't be worn down.

In the past two days, everyone has been ragging on the Houston defense. That's unfair because it's inherent that a Wade Phillips defense will not be sophisticated. This plays into the Patriots strength.

It's not shocking what happened on Monday because there isn't a real way to prevent it from happening absent a new defense.

As a defense, SF is geared more toward a more one dimensional offense like Green Bay.

It's really interesting to compare the defensive snap counts for the season for the 2 teams:

New England:

Devin McCourty, S/CB (885/906) 98%
Jerod Mayo, LB (868/906) 96%
Rob Ninkovich, DE (761/906) 84%
Vince Wilfork, DT (725/906) 80%
Brandon Spikes, LB (678/90) 75%
Kyle Arrington, CB (670/901) 74%
Chandler Jones, DE (618/906) 68%
Steve Gregory, S (565/906) 62%
Alfonzo Dennard, CB (561/906) 62%
Kyle Love, DT (475/906) 53%
Dont'a Hightower, LB (421/906) 46%
Aqib Talib, CB (236/906) 26%

Patriots defensive snaps update - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
Defensive snaps - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Obviously Jones and Hightower have missed time to injury. Aqib Talib has only been with the team for 4 games, and Alfonzo Dennard has only been a starter for about 6. That also affects the chemistry of the defense. Talib had been playing over 95% of the snaps (236/248) in his 4 games since being activated before leaving the Houston game due to injury. And Alfonzo Dennard has played 93% of defensive snaps (530/567) since first getting significant action in the Seattle game week 6.

San Francisco:

Carlos Rogers, CB (833/845) 98.6%
Tarrell Brown, CB (833/845) 98.6%
Donte Whitner, S (830/845) 98.2%
Dashon Goldson, S (813/845) 96%
NaVorro Bowman, ILB (813/845) 96%
Patrick Willis, ILB (807/845) 95.5%
Aldon Smith, DE/OLB (806/845) 95.4%
Ray McDonald, DT/DE (785/7845) 92.9%
Ahmad Brooks, OLB (783/845) 92.6%
Justin Smith, DT/DE (775/845) 91.7%

49ers snap count through the first half of 2012 - Niners Nation
49ers snap count vs. St. Louis Rams - Niners Nation
49ers snap count vs. Chicago Bears - Niners Nation
49ers snap count vs. Saints: Checking out the backups - Niners Nation
49ers snap count vs. St. Louis Rams - Niners Nation
49ers snap count vs. Dolphins: Injuries and rookies - Niners Nation

That's 10 guys who pretty much play all of the time. All season long. Not a whole lot of substitution going on. No significant injuries to starters all season.

Those guys obviously have great stamina and durability. But imagine what the Pats can do wearing those guys down. And the 49ers haven't had to deal with anything like the kind of injury issues that the Pats have this season.

It will be interesting to see how the Pats wear them down.

 

[TheBeers]

That's a crazy high snap count for SF starting defenders. They probably get away with it because they are great at getting off the field (without looking up stats). Let's see what happens when we go to the uber-hurryup which I would expect after reading that.

 

[ausbacker]

That's a crazy high snap count for SF starting defenders. They probably get away with it because they are great at getting off the field (without looking up stats). Let's see what happens when we go to the uber-hurryup which I would expect after reading that.

Unless the 49ers have an amazing conditioning program, it's reasonable to suggest they may be gassed by the end of the 3rd quarter.

 

[mayoclinic]

That's a crazy high snap count for SF starting defenders. They probably get away with it because they are great at getting off the field (without looking up stats). Let's see what happens when we go to the uber-hurryup which I would expect after reading that.

Unless the 49ers have an amazing conditioning program, it's reasonable to suggest they may be gassed by the end of the 3rd quarter.

DBs playing a lot of snaps is one thing. McCourty's played 97% of our snaps. Talib played 95% before he left the Houston game, and Dennard 93% since becoming a regular. But for 6 of the DLs and LBs to all have over 90% of snaps played? That's a lot of wear and tear. And those guys are going to get on heck of a cardio workout on Sunday night.

 

[BingoBrown]

Niners are in need of a reliable kicker.The one thing I notice
about QB's that run is that they give up on reads quickly especially the rooks.

 

[SVN]

San Francisco 49ers – Niner Insider Blog – SFGate.com » Moss, John Harbaugh will assist in preparation for Patriots

 

[CityOfChampions]

San Francisco 49ers – Niner Insider Blog – SFGate.com » Moss, John Harbaugh will assist in preparation for Patriots

Obviously the 49ers are a great team and their fans should be ****y but from 90% of what I've seen their fanbase say.. I think they're underestimating the Patriots.

 

[Bhelmet]

Obviously the 49ers are a great team and their fans should be ****y but from 90% of what I've seen their fanbase say.. I think they're underestimating the Patriots.

Most Niner fans are complete tools. When I lived in CA, all I heard was how they were fans for their whole life, but NONE knew who was QB before Joe Montana. When Montana went to KC - I wish I had taken pics of all the KC jacket wearing tools in the Santa Clara area.

 

[TyronePoole]

I don't get how the Niners are supposed to score points? Gore will be neutralized so what's it going to be Kaepernick bootlegs to Crabtree all day? They seem like a pretty easy offense to gameplan for imo.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Niners are outstanding at DL stunts and other ways to keep the OL guessing. Justin Smith is adept at holding OL-men at bay while Aldon Smith stunts around him.

Patrick Willis can lock onto RBs out of the backfield and meet them when the ball arrives on flares.

This is one nasty front 7 the Pats are facing. I'm glad the game is Sunday night as the Pats can use every extra hour after an emotional and physical Monday game. At least there was no travel involved for New England.

Regards,
Chris

 

[bosdober]

First off, great thread. I usually check in on our opponents' MBs prior to the game, and most fans are overconfident and simplistic in their assessment of the game. You guys have good knowledge and are having a good discussion. I'm surprised at how much some of you know about our team.

I thought I'd address a few things I saw throughout the thread, to try to offer some perspective that hasn't been covered yet.

- Crabtree: someone mentioned something to the effect of him being just a possession receiver and not being someone to worry much about. Crabtree has increasingly been both our key target on 3rd down, and our main guy for YAC. And we're increasingly running plays where we get the ball into his hands and expect him to get YAC (slants reminiscent of the old days - or like you guys run). How does your secondary tackle? Not asking to be facetious, I honestly don't know. The ability to wrap up is very important against both Crabtree and Vernon Davis.

- Someone mentioned taking advantage of our aggressiveness on defense. Aggression is not quite you need to be worried about - we typically only bring 4 pass rushers and drop the other LBs and DBs into coverage. What worries me moreso is the play you guys ran to hit Lloyd for the TD against Houston. Our safeties love to fill quickly and stop the run. You can kill us if you get Goldson biting down on a good PA pass. Similarly, we've shown some susceptibility on screens.

- In our losses, it has been the opponent's ability to establish the run early that has killed us. We also struggle against underneath routes at times - Minnesota just picked away at us all game and kept a good run/pass mix.

- Someone mentioned how the Smiths are undersized. Keep in mind Justin plays DE and Aldon plays OLB. In any case, both are deceptively strong. Some signature plays, if you have the means to look at them, is Aldon's first sack vs. the Dolphins last week (he basically pancaked the tackle) or Justin's one handed, over the back sack of Brees in the playoffs last year.

- In any case, Justin plays more of a decoy role in that most teams try to keep 2 players on him, opening things up for Aldon and Ahmad Brooks. We also like to run a lot of stunts to get pressure. You guys seemed to scheme to put traffic between JJ Watt and the QB on MNF - that strategy worked very well. We have the ability to move guys around to get matchups, given that Aldon and Brooks are both solid pass rushers, and we can line one up next to Justin and the other opposite to vary where the pressure comes from.

- We 49ers fans loooove our coach. But he's still only a second year coach. You can force him to waste timeouts by making our QB audible. He's had some clock management issues and questionable challenges at times. I'm nervous that your coach is going to pull some things out of his sleeves to show our coach who's still the master.

- For whatever reason, we as a team and Aldon Smith as a player have been dynamite in prime time for the last 2 seasons. I don't expect us to come out flat.

- We have a small x-factor you guys may not be ready for - LaMichael James. With the Hunter injury, he saw action last weekend and looked promising. I expect he'll get 5-10 touches against you guys, and you only have 1 game of tape on him. His presence could be meaningless - he's a rookie who has played in one game - but I'm interested to see how they use him against you guys.

- You guys talk about using the no huddle to wear down our defenders. It makes sense. But you guys will need to sustain drives to wear down our defenders. Not saying you can't - if any team can, yours can - but to date it's been pretty rare to see it happen to our D.

- Assuming Gore will be neutralized, as one poster did, is a bold assumption. The way our o-line plays is reminiscent of the o-lines Mike Solari coached in Kansas City in the early 00s. They're all extremely big with light feet, and they love to get into space. That said, your NT was spectacular against Houston. I'm not sure how we counter him.

Here's to a good game with no injuries. Honestly, I think we can beat any team, but I'm pessimistic about our chances in this game - you guys seem to be peaking and your offense is bonkers.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I don't get how the Niners are supposed to score points? Gore will be neutralized so what's it going to be Kaepernick bootlegs to Crabtree all day? They seem like a pretty easy offense to gameplan for imo.

this is what i don't get...it's going to be very hard for them to score. and if the pats get the lead early again...watch out

 

[Deus Irae]

... Someone mentioned how the Smiths are undersized. Keep in mind Justin plays DE and Aldon plays OLB. In any case, both are deceptively strong. Some signature plays, if you have the means to look at them, is Aldon's first sack vs. the Dolphins last week (he basically pancaked the tackle) or Justin's one handed, over the back sack of Brees in the playoffs last year. ...

That was me. They'll be going up against two very large tackles, so the size matters, all along the line (McDonald will be undersized for the running game, as well). The Patriots [highlight]should[/highlight] be able to dominate along the line, against the run, which is why I think those LB battles against the guards will play such a pivotal role in the game. The edge that I see for the 49ers will be in using J. Smith as the base for A. Smith to run stunts. Picking up speed off of stunts has not been a strength of Patriots O-lines for quite a while.

 

[mayoclinic]

First off, great thread. I usually check in on our opponents' MBs prior to the game, and most fans are overconfident and simplistic in their assessment of the game. You guys have good knowledge and are having a good discussion. I'm surprised at how much some of you know about our team.

I thought I'd address a few things I saw throughout the thread, to try to offer some perspective that hasn't been covered yet.

Good thoughts. I'll address a few of them.

- Someone mentioned taking advantage of our aggressiveness on defense. Aggression is not quite you need to be worried about - we typically only bring 4 pass rushers and drop the other LBs and DBs into coverage. What worries me moreso is the play you guys ran to hit Lloyd for the TD against Houston. Our safeties love to fill quickly and stop the run. You can kill us if you get Goldson biting down on a good PA pass. Similarly, we've shown some susceptibility on screens.

- In our losses, it has been the opponent's ability to establish the run early that has killed us. We also struggle against underneath routes at times - Minnesota just picked away at us all game and kept a good run/pass mix.

These 2 go together. I've been preaching this entire thread the need to be patient, to establish the run, to wear the DL down with the running game, and to use play action and screens and misdirections against the defense. Don't go empty backfield and take shot after shot down the field. Be patient, don't force the ball into small windows. Don't be afraid to throw the ball away, even if it means killing a drive and punting. Don't make the mistakes Drew Brees made. I'm reasonably sure BB will show some of that tape to hammer those kind of things home.

- Someone mentioned how the Smiths are undersized. Keep in mind Justin plays DE and Aldon plays OLB. In any case, both are deceptively strong. Some signature plays, if you have the means to look at them, is Aldon's first sack vs. the Dolphins last week (he basically pancaked the tackle) or Justin's one handed, over the back sack of Brees in the playoffs last year.

Justin Smith has been my poster boy for several years now on the draft board regarding the fundamental difference between mass and "core strength". He's not particularly massive, but he's incredibly strong for his size, and tosses linemen around. With that in mind, Sebastian Vollmer and Logan Mankins in particular are very physical linemen who will match up very well with him and hold their own. There will be some quality sumo wrestling going on there. Ditto Marcus Cannon if he gets some playing time, especially in the run game. OTOH, if Vollmer's back is giving him problems, it could be a big issue. I think Smith is more like to have success overpowering Nate Solder, though Mankins will have something to say about that.

- In any case, Justin plays more of a decoy role in that most teams try to keep 2 players on him, opening things up for Aldon and Ahmad Brooks. We also like to run a lot of stunts to get pressure. You guys seemed to scheme to put traffic between JJ Watt and the QB on MNF - that strategy worked very well. We have the ability to move guys around to get matchups, given that Aldon and Brooks are both solid pass rushers, and we can line one up next to Justin and the other opposite to vary where the pressure comes from.

We're fairly used to that kind of stuff from the Ravens and Steelers. No disrespect - I'm sure you guys are good at it, but it won't be entirely new.

- We have a small x-factor you guys may not be ready for - LaMichael James. With the Hunter injury, he saw action last weekend and looked promising. I expect he'll get 5-10 touches against you guys, and you only have 1 game of tape on him. His presence could be meaningless - he's a rookie who has played in one game - but I'm interested to see how they use him against you guys.

VERY good point. The Pats have struggled with shifty, elusive backs more than with power backs. Ray Rice. Leon Washington. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller carved us up in the 2nd bills game. Whereas we handled Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster, both power backs with decent receiving skills, fairly well. I think BB will make stopping Frank Gore his #1 priority on defense. But a guy like James could pose problems.

- You guys talk about using the no huddle to wear down our defenders. It makes sense. But you guys will need to sustain drives to wear down our defenders. Not saying you can't - if any team can, yours can - but to date it's been pretty rare to see it happen to our D.

Absolutely. If the Pats can sustain some drives and run off a lot of plays, they will wear the 49ers down. Advantage Pats. If the 49ers can hold them to a lot of short drives and keep the defensive snap count low, they can control the clock and stay relatively fresh. Advantage 49ers. The Pats lead the NFL in 1st downs by a large margin (almost 28/game, which would be a record pace). The 49ers have given up the second fewest 1st downs per game, at just under 17. I think the battle of 1st downs is very important - even if the Pats don't put up a lot of points in the first half, if they can move the ball and sustain drives they will start to wear the San Francisco defense down, which will take a toll and open up scoring opportunities in the second half.

- Assuming Gore will be neutralized, as one poster did, is a bold assumption. The way our o-line plays is reminiscent of the o-lines Mike Solari coached in Kansas City in the early 00s. They're all extremely big with light feet, and they love to get into space. That said, your NT was spectacular against Houston. I'm not sure how we counter him.

If Wilfork and Mike Iupati collide, it will be something to watch. But I think Chandler Jones is as much a key to setting the edge against Gore as anyone, and he's very under-rated in stopping the run. He was eased back in against Houston, but will hopefully be at full strength this week.

Here's to a good game with no injuries. Honestly, I think we can beat any team, but I'm pessimistic about our chances in this game - you guys seem to be peaking and your offense is bonkers.

You guys have been blessed so far this season in terms of avoiding injuries on defense. I never wish injuries on anyone, and I certainly don't wish them on the 49ers this week. But I do wonder just a bit whether the 49ers would have the resilience to handle the kind of injury adversity that has plagued New England, Houston and Green Bay. But good luck.