Pats vs. Niners - Initial Thoughts

[Steve102]

Hello, signed up to discuss the game. Couple of things about the Niners from my perspective:

- The niner running game is actually very sophisticated. They don't just run I formations up the middle. They get crafty with a lot of pulling lineman, traps and of course the read option. Plus, the running game has been able to wear teams down over the course of the game.

- Kap is learning, but he does bring a different element to the offense, IMO. While this is hotly debated among niner fans, he is not afraid to make throws into tight windows, and has been very good protecting the football (outside the infamous pitch play against STL). And Crabtree has been very good as a possession WR this year. He finds holes. The big mystery is Vernon Davis. Even us Niner fans can't figure out why he isn't a bigger part of the offense.

- The D is as physical as they seem. They tend to give up yards between the 30s but stiffen up very well after that. Many games I have have thought the opposing team was able to move the ball but only ended up with like 13 or 17 points. And while their takeaways have dropped this year, they are in form.

- The RBs who have hurt the D are the big bruising types, ie Lynch and Steven Jackson. They usually play very well against the smaller shifty types because Bowman and Willis are so fast and don't let RBs get the edge very often. The other thing is the Niner D is VERY good at tackling. They very rarely miss tackles.

To me, it comes down to pressure on Brady. The Niners have to make his life hell. It seems to me that is what the Giants have been successful against NE in the recent past.

And no, I don't like the Niners chances if they get down 14. I'm not too worried about the weather, cause I do think the Niners are built like a cold weather team. With that said, Kap is the question mark. But, he has played well in the big games he has played thus far.

Oh, and Aldon Smith, for some reason, explodes on primetime games. Here is to a good game.

Welcome to the board. always good to have the out of town POV.

 

[kkpat]

Most of Niner fans think PATS are soft. On Every board, every one thinks we have ****ty defense and soft Offense and defense. They keep bragging "PATS are soft; Hit Brady in the mouth, they quiet down; PATS D is soft". If the team and arrogant SOB coach think the same, our work is half done. They will find out all about Mayo, Wilfork, Spikes ... I hope Aquib, Dennard and Arrington are all fine. If they are there, we will be aggressive and physical. I remember when we had McGinest and Bruschi running QBs were crushed into pieces.

 

[Double TE]

No knowledgeable fan thinks the NE D is soft. Thats nuts. Those must be the troll Niner fans.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hello, signed up to discuss the game. Couple of things about the Niners from my perspective:

- The niner running game is actually very sophisticated. They don't just run I formations up the middle. They get crafty with a lot of pulling lineman, traps and of course the read option. Plus, the running game has been able to wear teams down over the course of the game.

- Kap is learning, but he does bring a different element to the offense, IMO. While this is hotly debated among niner fans, he is not afraid to make throws into tight windows, and has been very good protecting the football (outside the infamous pitch play against STL). And Crabtree has been very good as a possession WR this year. He finds holes. The big mystery is Vernon Davis. Even us Niner fans can't figure out why he isn't a bigger part of the offense.

- The D is as physical as they seem. They tend to give up yards between the 30s but stiffen up very well after that. Many games I have have thought the opposing team was able to move the ball but only ended up with like 13 or 17 points. And while their takeaways have dropped this year, they are in form.

- The RBs who have hurt the D are the big bruising types, ie Lynch and Steven Jackson. They usually play very well against the smaller shifty types because Bowman and Willis are so fast and don't let RBs get the edge very often. The other thing is the Niner D is VERY good at tackling. They very rarely miss tackles.

To me, it comes down to pressure on Brady. The Niners have to make his life hell. It seems to me that is what the Giants have been successful against NE in the recent past.

And no, I don't like the Niners chances if they get down 14. I'm not too worried about the weather, cause I do think the Niners are built like a cold weather team. With that said, Kap is the question mark. But, he has played well in the big games he has played thus far.

Oh, and Aldon Smith, for some reason, explodes on primetime games. Here is to a good game.

:welcome:

Fans of other teams are always welcomed (by most of us). If you can think of some twitter feeds to post that would be good for us to follow this week, that would be great.

 

[Off The Grid]

We've had our good games and our bad games on the ground - this one better be a good one.

Gimme a hit'o' that, Bro: It must be fine.

The Patriots Running Game is ~ what? ~ 7th in the League??

And it's only getting better, now that Shattering Shane Vereen's OnLine.

 

[crew1954]

Gimme a hit'o' that, Bro: It must be fine.

The Patriots Running Game is ~ what? ~ 7th in the League??

And it's only getting better, now that Shattering Shane Vereen's OnLine.

Shane "Careen" Vereen?

ca·reen (k-rn)
v. ca·reened, ca·reen·ing, ca·reens
v.intr.
1. To lurch or swerve while in motion.

 

[mayoclinic]

The D is as physical as they seem. They tend to give up yards between the 30s but stiffen up very well after that. Many games I have have thought the opposing team was able to move the ball but only ended up with like 13 or 17 points.

I don't follow the 49ers closely enough, but this seems at odds with the stat that Mike Reiss posted that the 49ers have the lowest red zone attempts against them this year (25) but rank 21st in the NFL in red zone defense (opponents converting on 14/25 chances, or 56%):

Stat check: Top O vs. Top D - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Ninerfan, do you think the 49ers are really good between about the 35 and the 20 at stopping teams from getting into red zone territory? And if so, why aren't their red zone stats better? Is it just an artifact of so few chances?

I don't know the answer. I'm asking.

 

[patsinthesnow]

If Talib, Dennard, Arrington play, I think it'll be a blowout. Stack the box, play man to man, and blitz. Although its only been 4 weeks of Talib/Dennard, I've seen enough. That was a top 5 offense with a stud RB, stud WR, and top 10 QB that the Pats D manhandled. The domino effect Talib gives the defense is insane.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

San Fran is much better defensively than the Texans. Goldson will knock your head off and they have much better linebackers. This game should much closer. I could see a 12-9 game.

San Fransisco keeps the same 11 defensive players on the field.

By about midway through the first quarter, look for them to be on the turf grasping for air and upchucking.

It's called "hurry up on steriods".

That's the exact same defense that "shut down" New Orleans in the playoffs.

 

[Double TE]

Harbaugh is the real deal and the Niners will be prepared. I don't expect a blow out but I would not be shocked that the Pats win and win by physically beating up Niners.

 

[mayoclinic]

San Fransisco keeps the same 11 defensive players on the field.

By about midway through the first quarter, look for them to be on the turf grasping for air and upchucking.

It's called "hurry up on steriods".

That's the exact same defense that "shut down" New Orleans in the playoffs.

I expect some of this, combined with a healthy dose of running the ball at them behind a physical OL. When there are breaks, bring in fresh backs - use both Ridley and Bolden. I think SF will be very tough, but I think they can be worn down.

Other teams really don't have any great way to prepare for the Pats' tempo. It's unreal. JJ Watt supposedly had superhuman stamina, but he was gasping for air.

 

[Ninerfan]

I don't follow the 49ers closely enough, but this seems at odds with the stat that Mike Reiss posted that the 49ers have the lowest red zone attempts against them this year (25) but rank 21st in the NFL in red zone defense (opponents converting on 14/25 chances, or 56%):

Stat check: Top O vs. Top D - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Ninerfan, do you think the 49ers are really good between about the 35 and the 20 at stopping teams from getting into red zone territory? And if so, why aren't their red zone stats better? Is it just an artifact of so few chances?

I don't know the answer. I'm asking.

Yeah, I guess I could've been more clear. They do a good job of preventing teams from getting into the redzone. I think that is the main component of the low PPG allowed.

Also, to address a different comment I saw, the niners did pretty much shut down the NO offense in last year's playoff game (as much as NO could be shut down) until the last 5 minutes of the game when they gave up two long plays. Heck, they only gave up two TD drives to NO this year. The other TD came after a muffed punt inside the 20.

That is the other thing this D does well, not give up big plays. They will have their hands full for sure, especially if Brady has time. Pressure and winning the turnover battle are the keys to pretty much every niner game. Gronk poses a problem, but he does for everybody. If Gronk plays, Willis will probably be tasked to cover him a lot with some safety help. But, I never put it past this coaching staff to come up with a clever scheme. Should be a good chess match.

As for twitter feeds, I really only get my twitter news from one of the beat reporters: @MaioccoCSN

 

[Double TE]

Is Gronk even playing? Different offense without him. I am looking for the D to take CK down and win it for NE.

 

[JR4]

A.Smith's 19 sacks is impressive but PATs have a
difference maker also .... Vince Wilfork just not in sacks credited

[B]Patriots D with Wilfork on/off field[/B]
    
                     On field       Off field 
Plays                 678             168  
Yards/Rush              3.60            5.25   
Sacks                  27               1   
Dropbacks/Sack         15.6           105.0

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[mayoclinic]

Yeah, I guess I could've been more clear. They do a good job of preventing teams from getting into the redzone. I think that is the main component of the low PPG allowed.

Also, to address a different comment I saw, the niners did pretty much shut down the NO offense in last year's playoff game (as much as NO could be shut down) until the last 5 minutes of the game when they gave up two long plays. Heck, they only gave up two TD drives to NO this year. The other TD came after a muffed punt inside the 20.

That is the other thing this D does well, not give up big plays. They will have their hands full for sure, especially if Brady has time. Pressure and winning the turnover battle are the keys to pretty much every niner game. Gronk poses a problem, but he does for everybody. If Gronk plays, Willis will probably be tasked to cover him a lot with some safety help. But, I never put it past this coaching staff to come up with a clever scheme. Should be a good chess match.

As for twitter feeds, I really only get my twitter news from one of the beat reporters: @MaioccoCSN

Thanks. That's very helpful.

I think the key for the Pats on offense will to be patient and not force things. Brees got greedy at the end of the first half of the Saints game, and then at the beginning of the 3rd quarter, and got burned both times. The Saints actually played decently except for about a 4 minute stretch when they gave up 21 unanswered points, 14 on pick-6's. The Pats aren't likely to be that sloppy.

Another interesting thing will be SF running the ball. You guys are averaging over 160 YPG. The Pats give up an average of 100, but we haven't given up more than about 120 in any game except for the 2nd game against Buffalo, when CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson gashed us. They got around 160 in that game, I believe. We seem to have more trouble with quick, elusive backs than with power backs. The Pats did a good job holding Seattle and Marshawn Lynch to about 85 yards (they're averaging over 150 YPG rushing), and I think you'll see a similar kind of focus. I understand that it's not just run up the middle, but Chandler Jones in particular is a very gifted edge setter, and Dont'a Hightower is coming on strong as well.

Interesting game.

 

[QB12]

Does BB think CK is more like which of these QB's he has successfully game-planned against:

1) McNabb;

2) V. Young;

3) Randall Cunningham

 

[patsfanincleveland]

I expect some of this, combined with a healthy dose of running the ball at them behind a physical OL. When there are breaks, bring in fresh backs - use both Ridley and Bolden. I think SF will be very tough, but I think they can be worn down.

Other teams really don't have any great way to prepare for the Pats' tempo. It's unreal. JJ Watt supposedly had superhuman stamina, but he was gasping for air.

The reality is there is nobody that wouldn't be worn down.

In the past two days, everyone has been ragging on the Houston defense. That's unfair because it's inherent that a Wade Phillips defense will not be sophisticated. This plays into the Patriots strength.

It's not shocking what happened on Monday because there isn't a real way to prevent it from happening absent a new defense.

As a defense, SF is geared more toward a more one dimensional offense like Green Bay.

 

[Ninerfan]

We seem to have more trouble with quick, elusive backs than with power backs.

Interesting game.

Hmm, this made me remember another real question mark. LaMichael James. Last week was his first action of the year, and he looked pretty good. He is small, but quick and fast. Almost broke a couple long runs. With he and Kap's background in the read option, I wonder what they can install this week to get James the ball in space.

How are the Pats at covering TEs? I ask because I would sure like to see V.Davis get some involvement this week. He gets a double almost every play, and I would expect no different this week.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The Pats better hope it's not about physical. No team in the NFL is more physical than the Niners.

The Pats best strategy is to be smarter. The Niners are a team led by a relatively young coaching staff with a young QB at the helm and they are susceptible to young mistakes like not getting plays in on time, offensive line penalties, and poor decisions regarding challenges and TOs. That being said, this physicality of the Niners is far superior and if your coach wants to match physical prowess, the Pats will be sorely mistaken in their gameplan.

Last year the Saints tried to go helmet to helmet with us an Whitner set the tone by smashing Pierre Thomas so hard he coughed up the ball at the goal line. I see this game going in a similar direction regardless of the fact it's a year later.

Our defense isn't vaunted because we hold people to the fewest points in the game, it's because we hit you in the mouth so hard you don't want to play offense. It might sound like smack talk, but I'm proud of our ability to be more physical than our opponent.

That being said, Brady is a master at neutralizing the effect of an aggressive D and your offense is nothing to sneeze at, especially since it matches up well against a defense that has susceptibility in the passing game.

No matter what, this will be a fantastic game and I can't wait to see how it turns out. However, to your dismay, we will knock the snot out of you and win the game by a narrow margin.

-Amp

A talented small, light, team can be physical ,occasionally against a bigger slow team, but usually not against a talented, fast, Big Team. The Patriots Defense is just now arriving after three seasons of rebuilding. It is now very Big, and very talented in the front seven, and speedy and talented in the secondary.

It will be a good test.

 

[upstater1]

The Giants got to Brady in 2007. last year, Brady had a much better game. People should remember that the Giants dominated the first quarter because of that horrendous intentional grounding for a safety event. Yet from the 2nd quarter until the middle of the 4th, Brady was on. He broke the NFL record for consecutive completions in the Super Bowl, and until he got knocked hard in the head in the early to mid 4th, he looked about as good as Brady can look.

He had a bad series after getting clocked.

Then he lead them on that potential game sealing drive that was royally screwed up by our OC who took his foot off the gas.