Pats vs. Niners - Initial Thoughts

[PatriotSeven]

The 49ers defense is much better than Huston's. Colin K. makes their offense more potent than Alex Smith. Harbaugh is a very good coach and motivator.

They can stop us. They can score on us. They're healthier. They have a back up quarterback who can come in and do a great job, and are not so dependent on their QB like we are.


But.....then you realize the Rams beat them once and tied them once. Just saying...

 

[Fencer]

I bet that Shane Vereen sees some practice snaps as the scout team QB. He certainly doesn't have a similar build or the arm, but he has similar speed and ran some wild cat and read option at Cal.

Kevin Faulk was scout team QB at least once (for Kordell Stewart).

 

[CityOfChampions]

Rams tied and beat them, Giants put up 26 and held them to 3, Saints put up 21 despite a pretty bad game from Brees..

 

[SVN]

The word you will hear from the pats this week is 'physical' .Thats what bb is going to challenge them to match.
On offense , its about frank gore. Pats have been good against the run but harbaugh is very good at designing running plays and putting extra linemen and such to get him going.

 

[AmpLee]

The word you will hear from the pats this week is 'physical' .Thats what bb is going to challenge them to match.
On offense , its about frank gore. Pats have been good against the run but harbaugh is very good at designing running plays and putting extra linemen and such to get him going.

The Pats better hope it's not about physical. No team in the NFL is more physical than the Niners.

The Pats best strategy is to be smarter. The Niners are a team led by a relatively young coaching staff with a young QB at the helm and they are susceptible to young mistakes like not getting plays in on time, offensive line penalties, and poor decisions regarding challenges and TOs. That being said, this physicality of the Niners is far superior and if your coach wants to match physical prowess, the Pats will be sorely mistaken in their gameplan.

Last year the Saints tried to go helmet to helmet with us an Whitner set the tone by smashing Pierre Thomas so hard he coughed up the ball at the goal line. I see this game going in a similar direction regardless of the fact it's a year later.

Our defense isn't vaunted because we hold people to the fewest points in the game, it's because we hit you in the mouth so hard you don't want to play offense. It might sound like smack talk, but I'm proud of our ability to be more physical than our opponent.

That being said, Brady is a master at neutralizing the effect of an aggressive D and your offense is nothing to sneeze at, especially since it matches up well against a defense that has susceptibility in the passing game.

No matter what, this will be a fantastic game and I can't wait to see how it turns out. However, to your dismay, we will knock the snot out of you and win the game by a narrow margin.

-Amp

 

[ausbacker]

I'm looking forward to seeing the best coached OL in the game go against the 49ers talented DL AmpLee. I'm also looking forward to seeing Vince Wilfork go against your OL.

Whatever the outcome, it may be brutal for the 49ers given the tough match up against the Seahawks in Seattle the following week.

 

[CityOfChampions]

49ers fans are complaining about refs before the game... lol. Other things I'm seeing on the 49ers forum are: Belichick doesn't know how to adjust (lmao), Patriots don't have a run game.. usually I like reading other team's forums to get some insight but they're either extremely confident or completely spewing incorrect information lol.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Wow, for once I go into an opposing teams forum and find myself agreeing to a lot of the posts.

I can tell you how the 49ers defense will attack your offense. They're going to run their bread and butter Nickel package to bring pressure on Brady with 4 down linemen and mixing the coverage with 7 defenders. No defense in the league has a better personnel to run the Nickel D like the 49ers, because we have elite defenders at every level and teams that cannot establish the run against this package lose almost every time. Because the QB is then forced to throw against it. Aaron Rodgers couldn't beat it, neither could Drew Brees.

You run game will be the key.

The Patriots and Tom Brady have not played the 49'ers in years yet Brady was on the radio yesterday singing the praises of Niner defensive players by name. TB has been studying that D for weeks in anticipation of this game. If any QB is going to throw on that group and exploit their weakness it's going to be Tom Brady.

 

[RodThePat]

The 49ers have the best defense in football, by pretty much any measure, but the Patriots have one of the 5 best offenses in history, by pretty much every measure. Why is everyone just conceding that they'll sputter and have a lot of trouble against the 9ers? I mean, that's the more likely outcome, I don't expect us to hang 40 on those guys, but there IS a chance we just come out, execute, and smoke them.

 

[Rob0729]

Although the 49ers have arguably the best defense in the league, their PPG total is a little misleading. They have faced a lot of bad or mediocre offenses that they shut down which brings it down including the Jets (0 points allowed), Buffalo (3 points), Miami (13 points), Chicago with Jason Campbell at QB (7 points), and Seattle (6 points). Against some of the better offenses in the league, they have given up a decent amount of points including Green Bay (22 points), Giants (26 points), and New Orleans (21 points). Plus they gave up 24 points to both Minnesotta and St. Louis.

They haven't given up more than 26 points in a game, but it isn't like they have been holding every team to under 20 points. I don't know if the Pats can continue the trend of 37 plus points a game that they have put up 4 of the last 5 games, but they should be able to get 25-30.

 

[mayoclinic]

The Pats better hope it's not about physical. No team in the NFL is more physical than the Niners.

The Pats best strategy is to be smarter. The Niners are a team led by a relatively young coaching staff with a young QB at the helm and they are susceptible to young mistakes like not getting plays in on time, offensive line penalties, and poor decisions regarding challenges and TOs. That being said, this physicality of the Niners is far superior and if your coach wants to match physical prowess, the Pats will be sorely mistaken in their gameplan.

Last year the Saints tried to go helmet to helmet with us an Whitner set the tone by smashing Pierre Thomas so hard he coughed up the ball at the goal line. I see this game going in a similar direction regardless of the fact it's a year later.

Our defense isn't vaunted because we hold people to the fewest points in the game, it's because we hit you in the mouth so hard you don't want to play offense. It might sound like smack talk, but I'm proud of our ability to be more physical than our opponent.

That being said, Brady is a master at neutralizing the effect of an aggressive D and your offense is nothing to sneeze at, especially since it matches up well against a defense that has susceptibility in the passing game.

No matter what, this will be a fantastic game and I can't wait to see how it turns out. However, to your dismay, we will knock the snot out of you and win the game by a narrow margin.

-Amp

I understand your intention, but I don't think you're too familiar with the Pats ad the AFC. The Saints are very much a team that relies on speed rather than physicality. But the Pats have gone toe to toe with very physical teams many times before, particularly the Steelers and Ravens, who have been among the most physical teams in the NFL for years. This team is NOT a "finesse" team. And we played Whitner twice a year for years when he was with Buffalo - there's not going to be much of an intimidation factor there.

I'm sure the Pats' will respect SF's physicality. And you're absolutely right that they will need to be "smart". But they are going to treat the physicality of the 49ers the way the treat a game with the Ravens and Steelers, which is nothing new. That won't intimidate them at all.

 

[livinginthe past]

Personally i'm going to side with the team that accentuates the side of the ball that the powers-that-be deem to be more important.

The 49ers have an excellent D - no doubting that, but as mentioned before this is a Patriots offense for the ages.

Not only is it racking up TD's at a similat lick to the 2007 version, but it is doing it on the back of an effective passing and running game.

I have maintained for several years that Brady is one of the best exponents of the play action pass the league has ever seen - anyone remember the statue of liberty fake in 2007 down near the goalline?

Well, with a running game that you don't just have to account for (like the Antowain Smith years) - you have to actively gameplan for it - which puts it closer to the Corey Dillon 2004 vintage.

The 49ers D is very aggressive, revelling in its tough guy image, I think that they can be taken advantage of like the Texans - getting the run supporting safeties to bite hard on the run - like the Lloyd catch on Monday.

The Patriots seemed to have a specfic wrinkle in place for the Texans D - that was the PA pass off the stretch play - I have no doubt they have something cooking for the 49ers.

Kaepernick has been excellent so far - but Belichick does do well against rookie QB's by taking them out of their comfort zone - that will mean keeping CK in the pocket and making multiple progression reads.

This is the first game we've headed towards where I have been genuinely confident in what the defense brings to the table (DB injuries notwithstanding).

 

[Double TE]

The Niners D is super physical and my thoughts on the Texans game were that if the Texans did not establish physicality they would lose. While the Niners D is physical, their offense is not really other than Gore who while not "old" is not exactly young either and their receivers are finesse all the way. It would really help to have Gronk back but I think our D can punish their offense. Question is how will our finesse players (AH and Lloyd) deal with their gritty D?

Maybe a dose of Ridley/Boldin and a hurry up offense can help?

 

[JR4]

Although the 49ers have arguably the best defense in the league, their PPG total is a little misleading. They have faced a lot of bad or mediocre offenses that they shut down which brings it down including the Jets (0 points allowed), Buffalo (3 points), Miami (13 points), Chicago with Jason Campbell at QB (7 points), and Seattle (6 points). Against some of the better offenses in the league, they have given up a decent amount of points including Green Bay (22 points), Giants (26 points), and New Orleans (21 points). Plus they gave up 24 points to both Minnesotta and St. Louis.

They haven't given up more than 26 points in a game, but it isn't like they have been holding every team to under 20 points. I don't know if the Pats can continue the trend of 37 plus points a game that they have put up 4 of the last 5 games, but they should be able to get 25-30.

To go along with this note the Offensive Hog Index (OHI)
offered by coldhard facts.

Higher the OHI of a team the less points scored in general.

OHI of Giants 7.67 (26 points) and NO 9.3 (21Points) for example.

PATs OHI is the best of all at 6.67.

So your assertion "they should be able to get 25-30." is in line
with a prediction base on the OHI also

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2012/15/OHI/

 

[Steve102]

you guys are quoting stats and all that. I am not going that route.

The only thing I am going to say is last week, the Pats played the supposedly #1 team in the league, and gave 'em a beat down. Now, the #1 defense is coming in here. I look for the D to make a statement, and show the league that they are not to be taken lightly. Wouldn't surprise me if they held San Fran under 10 pts.

 

[BelichickFan]

From what I can tell the 49ers defense is excellent due to lack of breakdowns more than being the dynamic, inpenetrable force that some make it out to be.

They have 32 sacks, we have 28.
They have 10 INT we have 15.
They have 15 Forced Fumbles, we have 31.

I'm not saying our defense is as good - we have had about 10,000 (OK, maybe not quite THAT many) more defensive breakdowns than them. But the ultra physical, game changing defense I keep reading about seems a little overstated.

BTW, the updated Football Outsiders stats has the 49ers ranked as the 4th best defense in the league. Guess who's 3rd ? Houston. Pass defense then run defense respectively they have Houston (after the MNF beatdown) at 4th & 4th and the 49ers at 7th and 1st.

 

[mayoclinic]

you guys are quoting stats and all that. I am not going that route.

The only thing I am going to say is last week, the Pats played the supposedly #1 team in the league, and gave 'em a beat down. Now, the #1 defense is coming in here. I look for the D to make a statement, and show the league that they are not to be taken lightly. Wouldn't surprise me if they held San Fran under 10 pts.

Makes sense. Pats have a lot of pride. Then after the game you would hear Wilfork or Mayo say something like "All we heard about all week is how great the San Francisco defense is. Well, they are great. But we have a defense, too."

 

[mayoclinic]

Reiss previews some of the players on the 49ers:

Getting to know the 49ers - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

I'd personally add Dashon Goldson to the list of impact players for the 49ers. One of 2 guys - along with DE/DT Red Bryant - who I dearly lament the Pats not being able to land in FA.

 

[makoute]

Makes sense. Pats have a lot of pride. Then after the game you would hear Wilfork or Mayo say something like "All we heard about all week is how great the San Francisco defense is. Well, they are great. But we have a defense, too."

Wasn't that Rodney's shtick lol.

 

[mayoclinic]

Wasn't that Rodney's shtick lol.

Any shtick that was Rodney's had to be good, as far as I'm concerned.