New England's Keys to Victory
Last week, the Jets actually forced the Colts to rush the ball more than they passed it. This despite the fact that Indianapolis had averaged 42.4 pass attempts and 24.6 rush attempts per game this season. Manning constantly checked to the run on third down, perhaps fearful that Revis' presence severely limited his options in the passing game. The Patriots may have more weapons than the Colts, but New England's passing attack flows through two rookie tight ends and two slot-type receivers. The Jets defense can be burned -- Pierre Garcon showed that -- but the Patriots aren't exactly ripe with big-play potential. Will success come from sustained drives and short passes or from finding the big play against the Jets?
On defense, the Patriots are going to have to take advantage of mistakes. Odds are Sanchez will force some passes into areas he shouldn't, and it'll be on the Patriots to pick him off as they did in Week 13. McCourty has turned into a Pro Bowl-caliber player in a hurry, finally giving the Patriots a competent replacement for Asante Samuel. McCourty's seven interceptions actually tied Samuel and Troy Polamalu for second in the NFL behind Ed Reed. Unlike Samuel, he can make the sure tackle if he doesn't get the pick -- his 82 total tackles easily dwarfed the totals of those other three defensive backs. Sanchez will definitely throw the ball his way, and if McCourty can come up with a big play or two, the Jets' fate could be sealed.
Prediction
The Patriots have been on a roll since dropping that Week 2 game to the Jets, winning 13 of their last 14 games and playing exactly one competitive game in their last six victories. That run included three playoff teams: the Packers, Bears and these Jets.
The Jets certainly have gained momentum by dispatching of the team that eliminated them in last season's playoffs, but will momentum and familiarity be enough to counteract the Patriots? Expect the Jets to rise to the occasion, but the Patriots are just too good to beat at home. Patriots 31, Jets 24.
