Pats treat draft like we treat money

[40yrpatsfan]

One way to look at the way BB/SP operate 1 is to see their moves as investment decisions. Let's say the day-1 draft was an investment club, where the 1st overall pick is worth $100k, the 2nd overall pick $99k, our #24 was worth $76k, our #28 was worth $72k, and our #91 was worth $9k.

The rules are that you can spend each pot of money on an asset now, or invest it and buy another asset a year from now. Assume that you're fairly well off to begin with (which they are), and have recently spent a lot acquiring other assets (FA's).

So what the Pats did with their three pots yesterday was:

1) spend $76k on an asset that was worth at least $76k (Merriweather);

2) with the $72k, the only assets available to buy were worth less than $65k, so rather than take that 10% hit, they invested in a stock (SF's 2008 #1) that's guaranteed to be worth at least $80k within 1 year (20th pick), with a chance to be worth $90k (10th pick). That's a gain of 20 to 40% as compared to buying today's devalued asset. Plus they got a dividend right now of about 1%, which admittedly was a little below normal market (the high 4th).

3) with the $9k, again there were no assets to buy worth 9k, so they invested in a stock (Raiders #3) that's guaranteed to be work at least $20k in a year (pick 80), and may be worth $30k (pick 70). That's a 200-300% gain. Plus they got a small kicker this year (a 7th).

That's the way they think. That's what they mean when they talk about "value". They take the emotion and the people out of it, and look at it as asset trading. Those 10% and 20% gains add up as compared to what other teams do.

I think Kraft probably played a role in developing this view of managing players and picks as assets.

ps: and because it's an investment activity, not a football activity, the Pats' draft is not always a good spectator sport, as they proved yesterday.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Excellent charaterizaton of their philosophy. To take that a step further, they do the same thing with their current roster as it relates to their salary cap. if their expectation that their player will perform at level x for y years, then their production justifies the assigned cap number. Its all time-based ROI with the Pats. Plain and simple.

 

[marty]

Well said 40yr! Might I also add that the moves they made this past off season also has allowed them to be in position to "back off" on this draft. They'll pick up a few developmental players in later rds, but didn't have the needs for nfl-ready players as much this year.

 

[Fencer]

Indeed.

The "discount rates" commonly applied to future picks is way too high.

The Pats' deals trading into next year were clearly good deals. The only solid basis for criticism is to wonder whether Pioli could have gotten even better deals than those if he were a trickier negotiator somehow.

But then, the same people who argue that might argue he negotiates TOO toughly with players.

I don't see what people are so exercised about.

 

[RayClay]

Indeed.

The "discount rates" commonly applied to future picks is way too high.

The Pats' deals trading into next year were clearly good deals. The only solid basis for criticism is to wonder whether Pioli could have gotten even better deals than those if he were a trickier negotiator somehow.

But then, the same people who argue that might argue he negotiates TOO toughly with players.

I don't see what people are so exercised about.

It was a buyers market. Weak draft, no one really looking to move up, we sought buyers and made the best deal we could.

Our draft will be judged based on day two. If we get a serviceable DB and LB. or increase competition at those spots, we might do as well as we could with those 2 picks.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Excellent charaterizaton of their philosophy. To take that a step further, they do the same thing with their current roster as it relates to their salary cap. if their expectation that their player will perform at level x for y years, then their production justifies the assigned cap number. Its all time-based ROI with the Pats. Plain and simple.

Exactly. Each job title (position) has a pay grade and scale, the total of which equals the salary cap. The salaries of the players filling each slot have to be within the budget for that slot.

It's a little more complicated than that because of the amortizing bonuses etc., but that's the philosophy.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

The amortizing of bonuses, etc., all adds up to risk-loading, essentially how much risk you believe you're incurring to add the guy. The Pats have a habit of loading the risk on the player until he is clearly, clearly producing, has drunk the kool-aid, and looks poised to continue that productions (i.e., Brady, Seymour.)

We like this model, because we're Pats fans. Everybody understands these same dynamics, but the Pats excel at saying "screw you" to fans, the press, or anybody else who wants instant gratification.

Again, because we're Pats fans, we go along with the present characterization of the draft class as "weak". This could also be us whitewashing the fact that we thought we'd get "our guy" a few times, and made trades based on the "next guy" we want being a reach, bolstered by the knowledge of a pretty good roster as is, a "better" draft class next year, and perhaps a whole passel of guys we can get in the lower rounds, who we think can pan out.

Somewhere buried in these threads, I did a listing of late round guys picked during the BB/SP tenure... there's gold in them thar 4-7s. BB/SP may not have felt there was much more gold in them thar 3s. I was pretty much rooting for them to get rid of the spare 1 and push it forward.

PFnV

 

[patchick]

It's a good analogy. Two extensions:

- In another thread, a poster compared trading picks into the future to making a loan. Given the time value of money, the key is the "interest" you get, which usually takes the form of jumping up a draft round or adding an extra pick. The interest rate is usually quite high, and some fans are naturally disappointed at what the Pats were able to command compared to other deals made. But if it was the best investment available, so be it.

- BB acts like he owns the team. This is a HUGE difference between the Pats and other teams, and it goes beyond draft philosophy to overall organizational structure. You can only think in terms of long-term investment strategy if you treat today, tomorrow and 5 years from now as equally important for your investment. How many staffs have that luxury, or that self-discipline?

 

[sieglo]

Anyone speculating that BB is giving serious thought to leaving and has "loaded up in free agency for one more run before he quits" had better think again after this draft. He's in for the long term.