Pats still have a reasonable shot at the #2 seed

[PATSYLICIOUS]

After winning in Dallas, I really can't see the Chargers losing anymore games, let alone 3

I just hope Miami loses on Sunday and we win the next 2 to clinch the division so that week 17 is essentially our 'bye week'. I'm sure not all starters would be pulled but definitely the ones that are banged up would get a chance to rest.

 

[supafly]

Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

Not one of those outcomes would be wildly unexpected were it to happen, so I think deeming the 2 seed possibility "reasonable" is ok. Obviously it is quite unlikely that all 6 of those games go the way we need them to, but it's not like we need the Rams to go into SD and win, or anything.

It's important for Cincinnati to win Sunday not just for the 2 seed possibilities, but also for potential playoff seeding. It also keeps the possibility alive for the Bengals to get the 2, and the Chargers to potentially (if they lose at Ten) slip to the 4 (if the Patriots win out). This would set up a 3/6 matchup against whomever (Baltimore/Miami/Denver), then, if they get a win there, a divisional round matchup in Cincinnati, while San Diego (or the winner of the 4/5, if they get beaten), slop up to Indy.

It's a lot like last year, in some respects. One game changed the Pats fortunes from "11-5 and out", to "12-4 and a first round bye" (if they win vs. Pittsburgh last year, they actually climb to the 2). Anything from 2 to being out altogether is entirely possible...

I actually like this scenario here.

I know Metaphors made a lot of great points about rather having the #4 than the #3, but IF we had to have the #3 this would be the best scenario IMO. It would allow us to build up some momentum in the playoffs, which is obviously quite important. I really think we'd match up well against the #6 (BAL,DEN,MIA) at home, (already talked about playing DEN anyway with the #4) and wouldn't really mind playing Cincinnati--especially considering SD/IND would knock one of the others out.

I think this is the path to the SB--although I know a lot would rather play IND in the divisional round, this would give the team some confidence and momentum when we played IND/SD in the AFCCG.

 

[TriplecHamp]

We dont deserve it.

 

[supafly]

After winning in Dallas, I really can't see the Chargers losing anymore games, let alone 3

I just hope Miami loses on Sunday and we win the next 2 to clinch the division so that week 17 is essentially our 'bye week'. I'm sure not all starters would be pulled but definitely the ones that are banged up would get a chance to rest.

Actually, in the scenario provided there, SD only has to lose on Sun. to CIN, then again to TEN--so it's really only 2x. I agree it'd be a stretch, but CIN and TEN should at least be able to give them a game anyway.

Then in week 17 CIN would have to lose to the NYJ.

Definately agree about MIA losing Sunday to TEN, + we win next 2. I like the thought of resting some players, surely a good idea. Some rest heading into the playoffs is much needed.

 

[aluminum seats]

Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

If that happens, and Cinci goes 2-1 (8-4 in conf) and SD goes 1-2 and (beats Wash), all 3 teams will be 11-5 AND 8-4 in conf

If that happens....

NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

Going off of this: "To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers."

Wild Card Tie-breakers: Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

5. Strength of victory.

Common Opponents
Pats 3-2 (hypothetical)
Den-L
Bal-W
Hou-W (hypothetical)
NYJ-L
NYJ-W

SD 2-3 (hypothetical)
Den- L
Den -W
Mia -W
Bal-L
Ten- L (Hypothetical)

Cinci (2-3) (hypothetical)
Den-L
Bal-L
Bal-W
Hou-L
NYJ-W (hypothetical)

If this happens, Pats would get #2 seed.

Like you say, long shot but possible....

It's the same result, but I don't THINK that's what the rules indicate. I think with a three way tie, the first thing that would happen is the Chargers "dropping out" because of 5 conference losses. Following that, the Pats would get the edge over Cincy based on common opponents.

 

[aluminum seats]

For the record, I think the Chargers will win this week, and if not, they'll beat Tennessee. I DO think the Jets will beat Cincy, but not if the Pats need them to--honestly. It's not that the Jets will try to lose, but the universe doesn't seem to allow anything the Jets do to help the Pats.

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

I actually like this scenario here.

I know Metaphors made a lot of great points about rather having the #4 than the #3, but IF we had to have the #3 this would be the best scenario IMO. It would allow us to build up some momentum in the playoffs, which is obviously quite important. I really think we'd match up well against the #6 (BAL,DEN,MIA) at home, (already talked about playing DEN anyway with the #4) and wouldn't really mind playing Cincinnati--especially considering SD/IND would knock one of the others out.

I think this is the path to the SB--although I know a lot would rather play IND in the divisional round, this would give the team some confidence and momentum when we played IND/SD in the AFCCG.

I would have to agree with you here. My earlier points were based on the assumption of #1 Indy and #2 SD. Facing #6 at home, Cincy on the road and then having the possibility of hosting SD in the AFCC game would be sweet. Go Bengals!!!

 

[mgcolby]

Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

i can see the pats going 11-5 but there is no way san diego will loose 2 games they are playing the best football out of every team in the NFL

I wouldn't say that. They beat the Browns by a TD, giving up 23 points and the Cowboys played right into SD's game plan.

Cincy has a hell of a run game 6th best in the league and SD is 21st in run defense. Not to mention the Titans running attack number 2 in the league.

It isn't a stretch to think that a team that has been winning despite their defense for the past several weeks could actually lose two games to two teams that run the ball very well and play solid defense. Cincy is 5th in total defense and Tennessee is averaging about 17ppg allowed during their resurgence.

 

[supafly]

Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

I wouldn't say that. They beat the Browns by a TD, giving up 23 points and the Cowboys played right into SD's game plan.

Cincy has a hell of a run game 6th best in the league and SD is 21st in run defense. Not to mention the Titans running attack number 2 in the league.

It isn't a stretch to think that a team that has been winning despite their defense for the past several weeks could actually lose two games to two teams that run the ball very well and play solid defense. Cincy is 5th in total defense and Tennessee is averaging about 17ppg allowed during their resurgence.

Good points mgcolby. Where you been? Haven't seen you posting much lately. I think Cincy will be inspired this week, not to mention their great run defense, as you pointed out. I think they will at least be able to keep it a competitive game for sure, so we have a shot there.

If TEN continues to win this week vs. MIA, they'll be playing for something still, and will have been on a hell of a roll. It's a possibility at least that SD loses 1 if not 2.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

I wouldn't say that. They beat the Browns by a TD, giving up 23 points and the Cowboys played right into SD's game plan.

Cincy has a hell of a run game 6th best in the league and SD is 21st in run defense. Not to mention the Titans running attack number 2 in the league.

It isn't a stretch to think that a team that has been winning despite their defense for the past several weeks could actually lose two games to two teams that run the ball very well and play solid defense. Cincy is 5th in total defense and Tennessee is averaging about 17ppg allowed during their resurgence.

Cincy is a team this week that is VERY emotional for the death of teammate Henry, so you can either expect an emotional slaughter of "Win one for Chris" game or more likely a team that may not have thier heads in the game and get pummeled.

 

[Schmo]

Quick math w/o a calculator:

For the Pats to win out, assuming a .700 winning percentage (currently .615) it would be about 35%.

For the second scenario, assuming a 50% chance of the better team LOSING in each game (quite generous) would be a 12.5% chance.

For both of these to happen would be 4.375%, even with a generous chance of things going our way. Check my math, maybe it's flawed... but I wouldn't consider 4% a "reasonable shot."

Hell, it's the NFL, anything can happen.

 

[supafly]

Quick math w/o a calculator:

For the Pats to win out, assuming a .700 winning percentage (currently .615) it would be about 35%.

For the second scenario, assuming a 50% chance of the better team LOSING in each game (quite generous) would be a 12.5% chance.

For both of these to happen would be 4.375%, even with a generous chance of things going our way. Check my math, maybe it's flawed... but I wouldn't consider 4% a "reasonable shot."

Hell, it's the NFL, anything can happen.

So what you're saying is that I may have a better shot at bagging Scarlett Johannson then?

 

[aluminum seats]

Quick math w/o a calculator:

For the Pats to win out, assuming a .700 winning percentage (currently .615) it would be about 35%.

For the second scenario, assuming a 50% chance of the better team LOSING in each game (quite generous) would be a 12.5% chance.

For both of these to happen would be 4.375%, even with a generous chance of things going our way. Check my math, maybe it's flawed... but I wouldn't consider 4% a "reasonable shot."

Hell, it's the NFL, anything can happen.

Your percentages are way off. The Pats have a far better chance than 1/3 to win out.

 

[aluminum seats]

So what you're saying is that I may have a better shot at bagging Scarlett Johannson then?

I'm gonna take a wild guess and say you're chances with Scarlett are a lot lower than 5%....

 

[ausbacker]

We'll be the 3rd or 4th seed at best, providing we don't lay an egg and get a wildcard.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Can we just get in the playoffs first???!!!!

 

[moosekill]

Quick math w/o a calculator:

For the Pats to win out, assuming a .700 winning percentage (currently .615) it would be about 35%.

For the second scenario, assuming a 50% chance of the better team LOSING in each game (quite generous) would be a 12.5% chance.

For both of these to happen would be 4.375%, even with a generous chance of things going our way. Check my math, maybe it's flawed... but I wouldn't consider 4% a "reasonable shot."

Hell, it's the NFL, anything can happen.

Wow nice use of math there, why even bother.

 

[moosekill]

Here I'll make up some numbers...I give Cincy a 75% chance to win this week, the Jets a 50% chance of beating Cincy and Tennessee a 40% chance of winning next week. I give the Pats a 75% chance of winning out.

Someone check my math.

 

[moosekill]

I would say there is a much much much better chance of this happening than anyone on this board banging Scarlett. Or Ellen D. for that matter.

 

[Schmo]

Your percentages are way off. The Pats have a far better chance than 1/3 to win out.

Even with how bad the Bills are, 70% chance to win each game is more than generous. that would result in a slightly less than 35% chance to win out. Obviously this doesn't include several intangibles, but I'm just trying to put some perspective on it. Since, mathematically we have a below average chance of winning out, if we do, it is a VERY good sign.

I agree with the previous poster - we should just worry about making the playoffs. If we win out, every team we face in the playoffs should watch out, whether we play at home or away.