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Pats still have a reasonable shot at the #2 seed

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by aluminum seats, Dec 17, 2009.

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  1. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    This surprised me, and odds are still against it happening, but it's clearly within the realm of possibility. If I have my tiebreakers right, it goes like this:

    1) Pats win out.

    Then, there's one game a week for us to root for:

    1) Cincy beats SD this week. Who knows what role emotions will play for Cincy this week.

    2) SD loses at Tenn the next week. Combine the resurgent Titans with a bizarre Friday night playing time, who knows what will happen.

    3) Cincy loses to at the Jets the last week. The Jets D has been playing well, and could shut down Cincy the last week of the year.

    Does anything here sound impossible?
  2. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    I think the #2 seed is a long shot. The Chargers are playing too well to lose two of the last three games. It could happen, but I doubt it.
  3. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    I feel like we ALWAYS get screwed. Last year we went 11-5, which gives you about a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and about 20 games didn't go our way. In 2002, we had the infamous Brett Favre meltdown. I don't remember many times when we've actually been pleasantly surprised by the results of other games.

    I'd be surprised if San Diego loses to Cincy; besides that I can see the other scenarios playing out.

    It would be better to play the Colts in the AFC Divisional Game. That's when they are always their worst, in their first playoff game.
  4. BoTown

    BoTown Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    I could see the Bengals upsetting the Chargers, but the other two are a major stretch IMO.
  5. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    Wow. Actually if you think about it, Favre has screwed the Pats 4 seperate times...

    1) 1996/97 SB XXXI.
    2) 2002, Week 17- Pack @ Jest and Jest won in a 42-17 Pack roll-over. Our boy Brett goes 16-33 in the loss.
    3) 2007/08 NFCCC- We play GB, Pats win SB42. No Giant pass rush to worry about.
    4) Last year. Jets beat the Fins in NY, Pats go to the playoffs. Instead, Favre poops the bed for the Jets in the loss.
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2009
  6. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    Agree. If the Pats can't get the #2 seed, I hope they clinch the division before week #17. There are a lot of players that need a week off and there is little reason to play for the #3 seed.
  7. Mack Herron

    Mack Herron Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    I'll be happy if just 1. comes through.
  8. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    The Pats have as much chance of being the second seed as I have

    of winning the powerball. They have a banged up team and will be

    hard pressed to win at Buffalo. Based upon their lack of success on

    the road, they may end up 9-7 and no playoffs at all.
  9. jagkho

    jagkho Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    Actually in 2001 we went 11-5 and got a first round bye. I remember that several games down the stretch had to go our way, including a game where Oakland lost to the Jets --- which led to the Raiders coming to our house to play in the Snow Bowl....
  10. PATRIOTSFANINPA

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    The Patriots will earn the second seed when......

    [​IMG]

    Come on guys,This is a 3rd or 4th seed at best,The Patriots left thier second seed fight to a knockout punch in Miami

    You should consider this team fortunate if it even makes the playoffs...luckily they are in the most inconsistent division in the league.
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2009
  11. cavtroop

    cavtroop Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    your definition and my definition of 'reasonable' must be far, far apart.

    Can it happen? Sure. Will it? Highly doubt it.
  12. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    If that happens, and Cinci goes 2-1 (8-4 in conf) and SD goes 1-2 and (beats Wash), all 3 teams will be 11-5 AND 8-4 in conf

    If that happens....

    NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

    Going off of this: "To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers."

    Wild Card Tie-breakers: Three or More Clubs
    (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

    1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

    2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

    3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

    4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

    5. Strength of victory.

    Common Opponents
    Pats 3-2 (hypothetical)
    Den-L
    Bal-W
    Hou-W (hypothetical)
    NYJ-L
    NYJ-W

    SD 2-3 (hypothetical)
    Den- L
    Den -W
    Mia -W
    Bal-L
    Ten- L (Hypothetical)

    Cinci (2-3) (hypothetical)
    Den-L
    Bal-L
    Bal-W
    Hou-L
    NYJ-W (hypothetical)

    If this happens, Pats would get #2 seed.

    Like you say, long shot but possible....
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2009
  13. AFPatsFan12

    AFPatsFan12 Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    Not one of those outcomes would be wildly unexpected were it to happen, so I think deeming the 2 seed possibility "reasonable" is ok. Obviously it is quite unlikely that all 6 of those games go the way we need them to, but it's not like we need the Rams to go into SD and win, or anything.

    It's important for Cincinnati to win Sunday not just for the 2 seed possibilities, but also for potential playoff seeding. It also keeps the possibility alive for the Bengals to get the 2, and the Chargers to potentially (if they lose at Ten) slip to the 4 (if the Patriots win out). This would set up a 3/6 matchup against whomever (Baltimore/Miami/Denver), then, if they get a win there, a divisional round matchup in Cincinnati, while San Diego (or the winner of the 4/5, if they get beaten), slop up to Indy.

    It's a lot like last year, in some respects. One game changed the Pats fortunes from "11-5 and out", to "12-4 and a first round bye" (if they win vs. Pittsburgh last year, they actually climb to the 2). Anything from 2 to being out altogether is entirely possible...
  14. patsfan-1982

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    i can see the pats going 11-5 but there is no way san diego will loose 2 games they are playing the best football out of every team in the NFL
  15. 102 Pat

    102 Pat Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    IF that scenario plays out, the Bengals might have the AFC North locked up by the time they play the Jests, so they might be resting players for that game.
  16. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    Last year was seriously messed up. It was not out of the realm of possibility for the Pats to be 12-4 and tie for the best record in the NFL...and still miss the playoffs. I think it only took the Pats beating the Jets (3rd and 15), Fins beating the Jets (late int in end zone) and Ravens beating the Titans (had the lead late). The stars aligned against the Pats last year in an unbelievable way that I don't think we will ever see again. They are due for a little positive karma this year.
  17. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    One other thing I forgot to mention is that if the Pats are hoping for the Jets to beat the Bengals the last week of the season to get a first round bye, the Jets will lose. Every time the Pats' playoff hopes have relied on the Jets' winning or losing the last week of the season during the Belichick era, the Jets do the opposite of what the Pats' needed. They beat the Packers big time in 2002 and lost to the Dolphins who played like they were trying to lose last year.
  18. NJPatsfan26

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    Couldnt agree more......that fat bastard Rexy will do that on purpose because as he said, he isnt here to kiss BB's rings.......f*cking rat bastard....
  19. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    Possible. All depends how SD does and what the matchup for 3 vs 6 is as opposed to 4 vs 5.

    Still a ton of permutations to go!
  20. Metaphors

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    That is less about the Jets and more about Favre. He has crapped the bed to eliminate the Pats from the playoffs twice. Add in the Super Bowl loss in '96 and I'm hoping for the Vikings to be the last stop on the Brady Vengeance Tour this postseason.
  21. PATSYLICIOUS

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    After winning in Dallas, I really can't see the Chargers losing anymore games, let alone 3 :(

    I just hope Miami loses on Sunday and we win the next 2 to clinch the division so that week 17 is essentially our 'bye week'. I'm sure not all starters would be pulled but definitely the ones that are banged up would get a chance to rest.
  22. supafly

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    I actually like this scenario here.

    I know Metaphors made a lot of great points about rather having the #4 than the #3, but IF we had to have the #3 this would be the best scenario IMO. It would allow us to build up some momentum in the playoffs, which is obviously quite important. I really think we'd match up well against the #6 (BAL,DEN,MIA) at home, (already talked about playing DEN anyway with the #4) and wouldn't really mind playing Cincinnati--especially considering SD/IND would knock one of the others out.

    I think this is the path to the SB--although I know a lot would rather play IND in the divisional round, this would give the team some confidence and momentum when we played IND/SD in the AFCCG.
  23. TriplecHamp

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    We dont deserve it.
  24. supafly

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    Actually, in the scenario provided there, SD only has to lose on Sun. to CIN, then again to TEN--so it's really only 2x. I agree it'd be a stretch, but CIN and TEN should at least be able to give them a game anyway.

    Then in week 17 CIN would have to lose to the NYJ.

    Definately agree about MIA losing Sunday to TEN, + we win next 2. I like the thought of resting some players, surely a good idea. Some rest heading into the playoffs is much needed.
  25. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    It's the same result, but I don't THINK that's what the rules indicate. I think with a three way tie, the first thing that would happen is the Chargers "dropping out" because of 5 conference losses. Following that, the Pats would get the edge over Cincy based on common opponents.
  26. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats Rookie

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    For the record, I think the Chargers will win this week, and if not, they'll beat Tennessee. I DO think the Jets will beat Cincy, but not if the Pats need them to--honestly. It's not that the Jets will try to lose, but the universe doesn't seem to allow anything the Jets do to help the Pats.
  27. Metaphors

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    I would have to agree with you here. My earlier points were based on the assumption of #1 Indy and #2 SD. Facing #6 at home, Cincy on the road and then having the possibility of hosting SD in the AFCC game would be sweet. Go Bengals!!!
  28. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    I wouldn't say that. They beat the Browns by a TD, giving up 23 points and the Cowboys played right into SD's game plan.

    Cincy has a hell of a run game 6th best in the league and SD is 21st in run defense. Not to mention the Titans running attack number 2 in the league.

    It isn't a stretch to think that a team that has been winning despite their defense for the past several weeks could actually lose two games to two teams that run the ball very well and play solid defense. Cincy is 5th in total defense and Tennessee is averaging about 17ppg allowed during their resurgence.
  29. supafly

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    Good points mgcolby. Where you been? Haven't seen you posting much lately. I think Cincy will be inspired this week, not to mention their great run defense, as you pointed out. I think they will at least be able to keep it a competitive game for sure, so we have a shot there.

    If TEN continues to win this week vs. MIA, they'll be playing for something still, and will have been on a hell of a roll. It's a possibility at least that SD loses 1 if not 2.
  30. PATRIOTSFANINPA

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    Re: Pats Still Have a Reasonable Shot at the 2 Seed

    Cincy is a team this week that is VERY emotional for the death of teammate Henry, so you can either expect an emotional slaughter of "Win one for Chris" game or more likely a team that may not have thier heads in the game and get pummeled.
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