Pats' Seattle Draft Pick could rise as high as #12

[PonyExpress]

The unbalanced nature of the two conferences could create a draft bonanza for the Pats provided Seattle loses its last two games. The pick is currently sitting at #20. Assuming Seattle loses to SD, the pick could rise as high as #16, I believe, despite an increase in Seattle's opponents' winning % due to SD's stellar record. Then, if TB could possibly beat Seattle in TB with Tim Rattay at the helm in Week 17, the pick could potentially rise as high as #12. Dare to dream!

 

[BelichickFan]

It's fairly unrealistic, though possible, that SF will win out with Seattle losing out to hand SF the division. However if Seattle loses out and wins the division at 8-8 there are several AFC teams that could not make the playoffs but finish at 9-7, thus moving the pick into the #18-#20 range.

If not, #21 is all but assured (assuming SD beats Seattle) as there won't be any other playoff teams with a worse record and Seattle losing the SoS tiebreaker to pretty much everyone.

 

[PonyExpress]

It's fairly unrealistic, though possible, that SF will win out with Seattle losing out to hand SF the division. However if Seattle loses out and wins the division at 8-8 there are several AFC teams that could not make the playoffs but finish at 9-7, thus moving the pick into the #18-#20 range.

If not, #21 is all but assured (assuming SD beats Seattle) as there won't be any other playoff teams with a worse record and Seattle losing the SoS tiebreaker to pretty much everyone.

BF,
I believe first rd draft order is based purely on record and opposition winning % until reaching the SB participants. Therefore, Seattle making the playoffs at 8-8 does not put them behind 9-7 AFC teams who do not make the playoffs. That is why I believe the situation will benefit the Pats.

 

[Pats726]

Could TB possibly win?? Even at 20..the pick is GREAT!!

 

[carolinatony]

A pick around 20 is great!

I seen 2 games they won with a FG in the last few seconds or we would be talking about a top 10 pick..

 

[patsfaninpa]

BF,
I believe first rd draft order is based purely on record and opposition winning % until reaching the SB participants. Therefore, Seattle making the playoffs at 8-8 does not put them behind 9-7 AFC teams who do not make the playoffs. That is why I believe the situation will benefit the Pats.

I thought the playoff team with the worse record picks at 21. I think you are correct if this article is right. See note at end of article.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDraft/Draft+Extras/2006/DraftOrderFormula.html

This link says head to head has no bearing.

http://nfl.com/draft/story/9137410?TTFUID=CSNFL4

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I thought the playoff team with the worse record picks at 21. I think you are correct if this article is right. See note at end of article.

It just so happened last year that the Pats had the "worst" record of any team that made the playoffs, and that no team with a better record missed the playoffs. I think, in theory, a playoff team could be assigned a draft pick as high as #4. [As David Fleming put it on ESPN.com:

SEATTLE can clinch division with:
1) SEA win or tie, OR
2) SF loss or tie, OR
3) Wait + does + anyone + actually + "win" + the NFC West + or + do + you + just + not + lose it?
4) SEA win + SF loss + CALGARY loss or tie + OTTAWA loss.

And head-to-head has no bearing on draft picks.

 

[cstjohn17]

Where does it stand now? after week 15? Thanks,

It just so happened last year that the Pats had the "worst" record of any team that made the playoffs, and that no team with a better record missed the playoffs. I think, in theory, a playoff team could be assigned a draft pick as high as #4. [As David Fleming put it on ESPN.com:



And head-to-head has no bearing on draft picks.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Right now, with one week to go, it stands at #22.

Here are the week 17 games; the numbers after each team indicate Ws (and italicized games will have little impact):

WAS 5-NYG 7
CHI 13-GB 7
CIN 8-PIT 7
TB 4-SEA 8
KC 8-JAC 8
IND 11-MIA 6
DAL 9-DET 2
PHI 9-ATL 7
NYJ 9-OAK 2
BAL 12-BUF 7
NO 10-CAR 7
HOU 5-CLE 4
TEN 8-NE 11
MIN 6-STL 7
DEN 9-SF 6
SD 13-ARI 5

 

[The Gr8est]

Interestingly enough, I think Seattle is pretty much locked in to the #4 seed so they have no motivation to win and can rest players.

We only get Seattle's #1 choice they get to keep the rest, so Seattle's losing next week is, strangely enough, to both team's advantage.

 

[cstjohn17]

Interestingly enough, I think Seattle is pretty much locked in to the #4 seed so they have no motivation to win and can rest players.

We only get Seattle's #1 choice they get to keep the rest, so Seattle's losing next week is, strangely enough, to both team's advantage.

Too bad for us, a loss would be huge as they would finish 8-8. Finishing 9-7 and making the play-offs could move the pick from the 16-20 range to the 22-26 range.

As of 12/27:
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=88968

Tampa just plain sucks, I have no confidence in there offense to score more than 10 points, I don't think that gets the job done. But lets hope....

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The absolute lowest the pick can be now is #18.

This can be achieved by..(my calculations, so not an absolute, but I think I'm right)

1. Seattle loses Sunday to Tampa Bay and
2. Seattle does not make the Superbowl and
3. Cincinnatti beats Pittsburg and Denver loses to San Francisco and
4. Green Bay and/or Giants win on Sunday, and whichever of them makes the playoffs loses in the same round or later in the playoffs as Seattle.

Assuming that Seattle doesn't make the Superbowl, the highest the pick can be will be #23.