Pats rookie salary projections

[Urgent]

Here are projected salary cap figures for the current rookie class:

34 Patrick Chung $925,000
40 Ron Brace $800,000
41 Darius Butler $800,000
58 Sebastian Vollmer $720,000
83 Brandon Tate $520,000
97 Tyrone McKenzie $480,000
123 Rich Ohrnberger $450,000
170 George Bussey $350,000
198 Jacob Ingram $325,000
207 Myron Pryor $240,000
232 Julian Edelman $220,000
234 Darryl Richard $220,000

You can play around with these, swapping these figures out for current players to consider cap ramifications.

I took last year's player cap figures, from the USA Today database, and bumped up by 9.5%, the increase in the cap. I looked at the entire second round, because there is great variability in cap figures due to different bonuses, and adjusted within the range of the curve.

These projections total $6,050,000. The rookie pool for the Patriots is $6,032,711, so these should be about in range. Obviously any one can vary, but in total they should be pretty close.

Under the rule of 51, the first six, through Tyrone McKenzie, would impact the cap during the offseason, bumping down players with lower cap hits (the current lowest salary figure on Miguel's list is Dan Connolly at $467K).

As these rookies replace other players, there would be a net positive or negative impact on the cap. For example, if Patrick Chung replaced Tank Williams or Antwain Spann, both at about $470K on the cap, that's an increase in cost of about $460K.

 

[letekro]

Here are projected salary cap figures for the current rookie class:

34 Patrick Chung $925,000
40 Ron Brace $800,000
41 Darius Butler $800,000
58 Sebastian Vollmer $720,000
83 Brandon Tate $520,000
97 Tyrone McKenzie $480,000
123 Rich Ohrnberger $450,000
170 George Bussey $350,000
198 Jacob Ingram $325,000
207 Myron Pryor $240,000
232 Julian Edelman $220,000
234 Darryl Richard $220,000

You can play around with these, swapping these figures out for current players to consider cap ramifications.

I took last year's player cap figures, from the USA Today database, and bumped up by 9.5%, the increase in the cap. I looked at the entire second round, because there is great variability in cap figures due to different bonuses, and adjusted within the range of the curve.

These projections total $6,050,000. The rookie pool for the Patriots is $6,032,711, so these should be about in range. Obviously any one can vary, but in total they should be pretty close.

Under the rule of 51, the first six, through Tyrone McKenzie, would impact the cap during the offseason, bumping down players with lower cap hits (the current lowest salary figure on Miguel's list is Dan Connolly at $467K).

As these rookies replace other players, there would be a net positive or negative impact on the cap. For example, if Patrick Chung replaced Tank Williams or Antwain Spann, both at about $470K on the cap, that's an increase in cost of about $460K.

Is the aggregate salary cap hit for these 12 players less than that of Matthew Stafford?

 

[eom]

haha....yeah, a bit.....

let me go get my graph

from 2005

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I took last year's player cap figures, from the USA Today database, and bumped up by 9.5%, the increase in the cap. I looked at the entire second round, because there is great variability in cap figures due to different bonuses, and adjusted within the range of the curve.

IIRC, increases in the rookie cap max out at 5%. I got somewhat different numbers when I did the calculations earlier (but I need to find that thread).

Under the rule of 51, the first six, through Tyrone McKenzie, would impact the cap during the offseason, bumping down players with lower cap hits (the current lowest salary figure on Miguel's list is Dan Connolly at $467K).

As these rookies replace other players, there would be a net positive or negative impact on the cap. For example, if Patrick Chung replaced Tank Williams or Antwain Spann, both at about $470K on the cap, that's an increase in cost of about $460K.

Two things here:

(1) The Pats already had 51 salaries on the salary cap, the last ~10 of which were $460K. So $460K of the cap hit those six players will consume is already counted against the cap. [I say will because those 12 rookies have been tendered rookie minimum contracts, at $310K each, but that makes no difference to the salary cap, because the 51st salary is $460K.]

(2) If a player is below the top 51, his salary doesn't count against the cap, but his bonuses do.

 

[Urgent]

A couple points:

Regardless of the exact bump in the cap, the total rookie pool is the $6.03mm figure. These numbers total $6.05mm. So they should be somewhat close. There was fairly significant variation last year in the cap amounts in the second round, pick to pick - that level of variability decreases the accuracy of the projection for each of the second rounders. However, we are probably close to the right range.

Looking beyond the artificial Rule of 51, which only counts during the off-season but is significantly different than the rules during the season:

Plugging these figures in for eight rookie players that might make the team, and releasing other players at those positions, and adding in the practice squad, I came in with about $3.5mm in remaining cap room for IR and any additional players.

My specific assumptions:

WR Tate on PUP (counts against cap)
TE Smith on, Thomas off
OT Vollmer on, LeVoir off (or O'Callaghan, small difference)
OG Ohrnberger on, Yates off, Bussey on PS
NT Brace on, Pryor and Richard on PS
LB McKenzie on, Alexander off
CB Butler on, Richardson off
S Chung on, Williams or Spann off
LS Ingram on, Hodel off

Eight PS @ $88,400 each (last year's figure, probably slightly too low)
Dead money of about $2.2mm, per Miguel

 

[ctpatsfan77]

A couple points:

Regardless of the exact bump in the cap, the total rookie pool is the $6.03mm figure. These numbers total $6.05mm. So they should be somewhat close. There was fairly significant variation last year in the cap amounts in the second round, pick to pick - that level of variability decreases the accuracy of the projection for each of the second rounders. However, we are probably close to the right range.

Fair enough. I'm just saying that the actual cap allotments—which, oddly, the NFL refuses to release even to teams—could not have gone up that much. Also, the rookie cap has to include room for bonuses (but not salaries) for undrafted rookies, too.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Here are projected salary cap figures for the current rookie class:

34 Patrick Chung $925,000
40 Ron Brace $800,000
41 Darius Butler $800,000
58 Sebastian Vollmer $720,000
83 Brandon Tate $520,000
97 Tyrone McKenzie $480,000
123 Rich Ohrnberger $450,000
170 George Bussey $350,000
198 Jacob Ingram $325,000
207 Myron Pryor $240,000
232 Julian Edelman $220,000
234 Darryl Richard $220,000

You can play around with these, swapping these figures out for current players to consider cap ramifications.

When I glanced at the numbers I guess I saw "$220,000" as "$320,000." These numbers are clearly wrong, because the minimum rookie salary in 2009—which necessarily counts against the cap—is $310,000.

The numbers I got were:

Chung $770,000
Brace $725,000
Butler $715,000
Vollmer $575,000
Tate $500,000
McKenzie $470,000

Ohrnberger $425,000
Bussey $350,000
Ingram, Pryor, Edelman, Richard $310,000-$330,000

I based the numbers off Miguel's numbers for 2008 Pats rookies, and then using Jordy Nelson (#35 in 2008) to calibrate the second-round.

 

[Urgent]

Interesting.

I based this off the 2008 rookie cap data from the USA Today salary cap database. By looking up each pick in the second round, I got the following data:

32 $815,000
33 $821,000
34 $839,500
35 $1,047,000
36 $1,725,000
37 $800,000
38 $770,000
39 $740,000
40 $730,000
41 $711,000
42 $1,390,080
43 $1,368,250
44 $678,333
45 $678,333
46 $1,091,750
47 $657,500
48 $640,500
49 $633,250
50 $595,000
51 $611,000
52 $606,250
53 $678,333
54 $975,000
55 $916,500
56 $511,500
57 $1,080,000
58 $984,500
59 $957,500
60 $945,000
61 $500,000
62 $835,900

As you can see, it's not a pretty curve. Compare pick 56 to 57, for example (both QB's, by the way). Compare 43 to 44. Now it's possible that the USA Today data is all wrong, but that's the best source I know of for cap reporting, not just salary.

Anyway, that makes the $770K projection for Chung, necessary to fit the higher rookie minimum's, look much too low.

At the bottom end, I didn't check the current minimum, but I looked up last year's 207 pick, corresponding to Myron Pryor, and that was $217K. Maybe that one was just wrong. I see that Ruud was $295K, and that the salaries for rookies was at $295K, so that was clearly the min. You're right to assume a minimum salary around $300K, which clearly changes the bottom three.

By the way, that database shows Nelson at $1,725,000.
USATODAY.com

When you look at the details, it looks tough to sign all the rookies within $6mm.

 

[Miguel]

http://www.patscap.com/2009draftpicks.jpg

 

[ctpatsfan77]

As you can see, it's not a pretty curve. Compare pick 56 to 57, for example (both QB's, by the way). Compare 43 to 44. Now it's possible that the USA Today data is all wrong, but that's the best source I know of for cap reporting, not just salary.

True. That said, the NFL assigned salary cap allotments for each pick before the draft.

By the way, that database shows Nelson at $1,725,000.
USATODAY.com

When you look at the details, it looks tough to sign all the rookies within $6mm.

When I made my projections, I was going off the size of Nelson's signing bonus only, which was $1,700,000 for slot #36 in 2008; by comparison, Wheatley's bonus at slot #62 was $890,000. [You can see the general downward trend in signing bonuses, although I admit it's not as clear as I'd like.]

In general, for second-round picks and later, the Pats have generally gone for relatively vanilla signing bonus + salary contracts.

 

[DaBruinz]

A couple points:

Regardless of the exact bump in the cap, the total rookie pool is the $6.03mm figure. These numbers total $6.05mm. So they should be somewhat close. There was fairly significant variation last year in the cap amounts in the second round, pick to pick - that level of variability decreases the accuracy of the projection for each of the second rounders. However, we are probably close to the right range.

Looking beyond the artificial Rule of 51, which only counts during the off-season but is significantly different than the rules during the season:

Plugging these figures in for eight rookie players that might make the team, and releasing other players at those positions, and adding in the practice squad, I came in with about $3.5mm in remaining cap room for IR and any additional players.

My specific assumptions:

WR Tate on PUP (counts against cap)
TE Smith on, Thomas off
OT Vollmer on, LeVoir off (or O'Callaghan, small difference)
OG Ohrnberger on, Yates off, Bussey on PS
NT Brace on, Pryor and Richard on PS
LB McKenzie on, Alexander off
CB Butler on, Richardson off
S Chung on, Williams or Spann off
LS Ingram on, Hodel off

Eight PS @ $88,400 each (last year's figure, probably slightly too low)
Dead money of about $2.2mm, per Miguel

LeVoir was their best back-up OT last year and he more than held his own when he subbed in for Light and Kaczur. Its more likely that O'Callaghan and Britt are gone.

 

[DaBruinz]

http://www.patscap.com/2009draftpicks.jpg

You the man, Miguel.

Great job as always.

I wonder when some NFL team is going to wake up and give you a call..

 

[Urgent]

http://www.patscap.com/2009draftpicks.jpg

Not sure why the rest of us even bother, but it's fun to dance at the feet of the master.

Thanks Miguel.