Welcome to PatsFans.com

Pats rookie salary projections

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Urgent, May 1, 2009.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Urgent

    Urgent In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2005
    Messages:
    2,068
    Likes Received:
    48
    Ratings:
    +173 / 2 / -0

    #24 Jersey

    Here are projected salary cap figures for the current rookie class:

    34 Patrick Chung $925,000
    40 Ron Brace $800,000
    41 Darius Butler $800,000
    58 Sebastian Vollmer $720,000
    83 Brandon Tate $520,000
    97 Tyrone McKenzie $480,000
    123 Rich Ohrnberger $450,000
    170 George Bussey $350,000
    198 Jacob Ingram $325,000
    207 Myron Pryor $240,000
    232 Julian Edelman $220,000
    234 Darryl Richard $220,000

    You can play around with these, swapping these figures out for current players to consider cap ramifications.

    I took last year's player cap figures, from the USA Today database, and bumped up by 9.5%, the increase in the cap. I looked at the entire second round, because there is great variability in cap figures due to different bonuses, and adjusted within the range of the curve.

    These projections total $6,050,000. The rookie pool for the Patriots is $6,032,711, so these should be about in range. Obviously any one can vary, but in total they should be pretty close.

    Under the rule of 51, the first six, through Tyrone McKenzie, would impact the cap during the offseason, bumping down players with lower cap hits (the current lowest salary figure on Miguel's list is Dan Connolly at $467K).

    As these rookies replace other players, there would be a net positive or negative impact on the cap. For example, if Patrick Chung replaced Tank Williams or Antwain Spann, both at about $470K on the cap, that's an increase in cost of about $460K.
     
  2. letekro

    letekro In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2005
    Messages:
    4,180
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +19 / 2 / -3

    Is the aggregate salary cap hit for these 12 players less than that of Matthew Stafford?
     
  3. eom

    eom In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2007
    Messages:
    2,597
    Likes Received:
    13
    Ratings:
    +31 / 0 / -2

    haha....yeah, a bit.....

    let me go get my graph

    [​IMG]

    from 2005
     
  4. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,871
    Likes Received:
    239
    Ratings:
    +637 / 11 / -5

    IIRC, increases in the rookie cap max out at 5%. I got somewhat different numbers when I did the calculations earlier (but I need to find that thread).

    Two things here:

    (1) The Pats already had 51 salaries on the salary cap, the last ~10 of which were $460K. So $460K of the cap hit those six players will consume is already counted against the cap. [I say will because those 12 rookies have been tendered rookie minimum contracts, at $310K each, but that makes no difference to the salary cap, because the 51st salary is $460K.]

    (2) If a player is below the top 51, his salary doesn't count against the cap, but his bonuses do.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2009
  5. Urgent

    Urgent In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2005
    Messages:
    2,068
    Likes Received:
    48
    Ratings:
    +173 / 2 / -0

    #24 Jersey

    A couple points:

    Regardless of the exact bump in the cap, the total rookie pool is the $6.03mm figure. These numbers total $6.05mm. So they should be somewhat close. There was fairly significant variation last year in the cap amounts in the second round, pick to pick - that level of variability decreases the accuracy of the projection for each of the second rounders. However, we are probably close to the right range.

    Looking beyond the artificial Rule of 51, which only counts during the off-season but is significantly different than the rules during the season:

    Plugging these figures in for eight rookie players that might make the team, and releasing other players at those positions, and adding in the practice squad, I came in with about $3.5mm in remaining cap room for IR and any additional players.

    My specific assumptions:

    WR Tate on PUP (counts against cap)
    TE Smith on, Thomas off
    OT Vollmer on, LeVoir off (or O'Callaghan, small difference)
    OG Ohrnberger on, Yates off, Bussey on PS
    NT Brace on, Pryor and Richard on PS
    LB McKenzie on, Alexander off
    CB Butler on, Richardson off
    S Chung on, Williams or Spann off
    LS Ingram on, Hodel off

    Eight PS @ $88,400 each (last year's figure, probably slightly too low)
    Dead money of about $2.2mm, per Miguel
     
  6. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,871
    Likes Received:
    239
    Ratings:
    +637 / 11 / -5

    Fair enough. I'm just saying that the actual cap allotments—which, oddly, the NFL refuses to release even to teams—could not have gone up that much. Also, the rookie cap has to include room for bonuses (but not salaries) for undrafted rookies, too.
     
  7. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,871
    Likes Received:
    239
    Ratings:
    +637 / 11 / -5

    When I glanced at the numbers I guess I saw "$220,000" as "$320,000." These numbers are clearly wrong, because the minimum rookie salary in 2009—which necessarily counts against the cap—is $310,000.

    The numbers I got were:

    Chung $770,000
    Brace $725,000
    Butler $715,000
    Vollmer $575,000
    Tate $500,000
    McKenzie $470,000

    Ohrnberger $425,000
    Bussey $350,000
    Ingram, Pryor, Edelman, Richard $310,000-$330,000

    I based the numbers off Miguel's numbers for 2008 Pats rookies, and then using Jordy Nelson (#35 in 2008) to calibrate the second-round.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2009
  8. Urgent

    Urgent In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2005
    Messages:
    2,068
    Likes Received:
    48
    Ratings:
    +173 / 2 / -0

    #24 Jersey

    Interesting.

    I based this off the 2008 rookie cap data from the USA Today salary cap database. By looking up each pick in the second round, I got the following data:

    32 $815,000
    33 $821,000
    34 $839,500
    35 $1,047,000
    36 $1,725,000
    37 $800,000
    38 $770,000
    39 $740,000
    40 $730,000
    41 $711,000
    42 $1,390,080
    43 $1,368,250
    44 $678,333
    45 $678,333
    46 $1,091,750
    47 $657,500
    48 $640,500
    49 $633,250
    50 $595,000
    51 $611,000
    52 $606,250
    53 $678,333
    54 $975,000
    55 $916,500
    56 $511,500
    57 $1,080,000
    58 $984,500
    59 $957,500
    60 $945,000
    61 $500,000
    62 $835,900

    As you can see, it's not a pretty curve. Compare pick 56 to 57, for example (both QB's, by the way). Compare 43 to 44. Now it's possible that the USA Today data is all wrong, but that's the best source I know of for cap reporting, not just salary.

    Anyway, that makes the $770K projection for Chung, necessary to fit the higher rookie minimum's, look much too low.

    At the bottom end, I didn't check the current minimum, but I looked up last year's 207 pick, corresponding to Myron Pryor, and that was $217K. Maybe that one was just wrong. I see that Ruud was $295K, and that the salaries for rookies was at $295K, so that was clearly the min. You're right to assume a minimum salary around $300K, which clearly changes the bottom three.

    By the way, that database shows Nelson at $1,725,000.
    USATODAY.com

    When you look at the details, it looks tough to sign all the rookies within $6mm.
     
  9. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    4,213
    Likes Received:
    147
    Ratings:
    +410 / 2 / -1

    #75 Jersey

  10. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,871
    Likes Received:
    239
    Ratings:
    +637 / 11 / -5

    True. That said, the NFL assigned salary cap allotments for each pick before the draft.

    When I made my projections, I was going off the size of Nelson's signing bonus only, which was $1,700,000 for slot #36 in 2008; by comparison, Wheatley's bonus at slot #62 was $890,000. [You can see the general downward trend in signing bonuses, although I admit it's not as clear as I'd like.]

    In general, for second-round picks and later, the Pats have generally gone for relatively vanilla signing bonus + salary contracts.
     
  11. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2005
    Messages:
    24,331
    Likes Received:
    196
    Ratings:
    +368 / 24 / -48

    #50 Jersey


    LeVoir was their best back-up OT last year and he more than held his own when he subbed in for Light and Kaczur. Its more likely that O'Callaghan and Britt are gone.
     
  12. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2005
    Messages:
    24,331
    Likes Received:
    196
    Ratings:
    +368 / 24 / -48

    #50 Jersey

  13. Urgent

    Urgent In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2005
    Messages:
    2,068
    Likes Received:
    48
    Ratings:
    +173 / 2 / -0

    #24 Jersey

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>