Pats prefer J.Mayo over K.Rivers?

[BRiZ]

But they would take Dominique Rodgers at 7th overall though, right?

Absolutely, he is the best corner in the draft and his talents are worthy of a top 10 selection. I see them taking either DRC or Mayo, wherever they pick at.

 

[sebman2112]

It's certainly possible the Pats were going to draft Harris at 28 before they got an offer that they couldn't refuse from San Francisco.

They received a 2007 fourth rounder, and a 2008 1st rounder. At the time of the trade, that wasn't a particularly great deal for the Patriots, and you need to remember that future picks are devalued. Also, I doubt the Patriots knew the 49ers were going to suffer some key injuries, and actually finish out with a worse record in 2007, since most were projecting them as a young team on the rise.

 

[Gator Mike]

I have to admit that I didn't focus in on Mayo, but it scares me a little that Tennessee's defense was AWFUL this year.

 

[PonyExpress]

They aren't "virtually the same athletically", despite the similar Combine numbers (Might be hard for the Combine geeks to grasp), and since when is Mayo more intelligent than Patrick Willis? I doubt it, and any member of this forum is going to have a hard time selling me on the idea of Mayo actually being as good as Willis.

Really, did you guys watch much SEC football? Willis was an absolute monster at Ole Miss, and it never really seemed all that realistic to believe he was going to be around for the 24th overall selection. Also, I think part of the reason Mayo's climbing the board happens to be the fact that some of these mediots believe the Patriots are going to select a LB, and they're simply trying to plug one in. You know, how Kiper was plugging Talib in for them at 7th, when all the mediots thought the lose of Asante Samuel was going to be the thorn in their side?

Incidentally, this is Don Banks, and the Patriots have given him bad pre-draft info before, so I wouldn't at all take this as the truth. Last year before the draft word leaked that NE was going to select David Harris....he's on the Jets.

Mayo is going to be a very good LB in the NFL. He is a better prospect than D. Harris was last season. If you feel he can't carry Willis' jock, and that comparisons between the two players are ridiculous (despite the fact they have the same height, weight, speed, VJ, short shuttle, bench press and both led the SEC in tackles at MLB the year they entered the draft), that's your right, I guess.

BTW, Gosselin had Willis rated #12 last season, and Mayo #19 this season. So the perception of the two players in NFL front offices heading into the draft is not that different.

 

[sebman2112]

Mayo is going to be a very good LB in the NFL. He is a better prospect than D. Harris was last season. If you feel he can't carry Willis' jock, and that comparisons between the two players are ridiculous (despite the fact they have the same height, weight, speed, VJ, short shuttle, bench press and both led the SEC in tackles at MLB the year they entered the draft), that's your right, I guess.

BTW, Gosselin had Willis rated #12 last season, and Mayo #19 this season. So the perception of the two players in NFL front offices heading into the draft is not that different.

They don't have the same speed, and anyone who's watched them should know this. Please don't give me artificial combine numbers either, especially since Willis killed it during his Pro Day.

Didn't say Mayo couldn't hold Patrick's jock, but I simply don't think he'll be as good, and I also think you're underrating what Willis did in the SEC, where he was a consistent performer. He could very well be a better prospect at LB than David Harris, especially if you're running a 43 defensive front. I'm not sure he would be high on the Patriots board, but if they did end up picking him then I would be comfortable with it, since they would have obviously liked him, and thought he could make the transition to their system. I'll again say that I'm not sure about him though, and he does have some issues to overcome in a 34 defense.

 

[cubedoggy]

Im more interested in Tommy Mustard, a 5th round projected prospect.

Him or Franklin Relish from East North Dakota Tech

I'm looking at Hank Sauerkraut as a UFA.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'm looking at Hank Sauerkraut as a UFA.

You're kidding, right? I mean the kid only seems to play well around weenies and he's just not crisp.

 

[mgteich]

Mayo seems a fine pick at 13. He would be an immediate contributer. I still favor moving up to 5 for Long or Gholston, but down to 13 for Mayo or Albert certainly has appeal.

 

[PonyExpress]

They don't have the same speed, and anyone who's watched them should know this. Please don't give me artificial combine numbers either, especially since Willis killed it during his Pro Day.

Didn't say Mayo couldn't hold Patrick's jock, but I simply don't think he'll be as good, and I also think you're underrating what Willis did in the SEC, where he was a consistent performer. He could very well be a better prospect at LB than David Harris, especially if you're running a 43 defensive front. I'm not sure he would be high on the Patriots board, but if they did end up picking him then I would be comfortable with it, since they would have obviously liked him, and thought he could make the transition to their system. I'll again say that I'm not sure about him though, and he does have some issues to overcome in a 34 defense.

When someone disagrees with you about a prospect, you act like you're the only one who watches college football.

You tell me not to give you artificial numbers, then tell me Willis "killed it" during his pro day. So which were the artificial numbers? The ones at the combine? Or the ones at the proday?

I am not underrating Willis at all. I was an advocate of him last season- not just during draft time, but throughout the whole college year I posted updates on him and discussed him at length with Ochmed Jones, especially his improvements vs the pass. Willis has great speed, but he does take false steps due to recognition issues. That's not an unusual problem for a young ILB, and I expect him to correct those going forward. His best fit was a simpler 3-4 scheme like the one the 49ers ran, which didn't require chameleon changes every week. IMO his rookie year was excellent but overhyped. He was on a terrible losing team which gave him plenty of opportunities for tackles. A good argument can be made Willis was outplayed by Beason in pass coverage and Harris overall once Harris replaced Vilma. I give Willis great credit for durability, attitude in an awful situation on an awful team, and for delivering that devastating body blow to Bulger that broke his ribs and basically ended the Rams season before it began.

As far as Mayo goes, there are real scouts, who get paid to watch college football, who believe Mayo is the best LB in this draft and potentially the next Al Wilson or Ray Lewis.

 

[Metaphors]

You tell me not to give you artificial numbers, then tell me Willis "killed it" during his pro day. So which were the artificial numbers? The ones at the combine? Or the ones at the proday?

I didn't understand that point either. Pro day numbers are almost always skewed positive. Even if Willis did run a legitimate 4.37 (not likely), he doesn't play that fast. Not to pick on Willis only...few players translate their "track" times to the field.

Despite similarities in measurables, Mayo and Willis have different strengths and weaknesses...which have actually been fairly well covered in this thread. Instead of nitpicking the differences between them (2 inches/second in speed) and determining who is "better", it is actually fairly easy to appreciate the unique skills they each bring to the table.

 

[PonyExpress]

I just want to make it clear to Sebman that I have alot of respect for his opinions on players and especially his intense interest in football. I don't mind if he considers me a combine geek. The geeks will inherit the earth.

 

[sebman2112]

When someone disagrees with you about a prospect, you act like you're the only one who watches college football.

Sometimes I word things in that manner (IE: "anyone who's watched them should know this") simply because the point seems obvious to me. How else should I word it? "Your wrong, Willis is faster....blah"? If it seems obvious to me, I'll tell you.

Thinking you're the only person who watches college football would be a complete joke. That still doesn't mean you can't question how often someone has watched a prospect, and if they actually know what to look for when scouting a player, if you believe their opinion is false. Also, developing my own opinion of players has served me particularly well over the years, so I might come off a bit strong at times. Not sure if you remember this, but last year Meriweather had a number of doubters, and we got into some pretty heated arguments concerning him on this forum. After the Patriots selected Meriweather (and Lua), I decided to listen to the opinions of others, but to always form my own opinion after watching that player, and stick to it.

You tell me not to give you artificial numbers, then tell me Willis "killed it" during his pro day. So which were the artificial numbers? The ones at the combine? Or the ones at the proday?

I was almost going to add on to that since I knew it would become a point of contention, and that the accuracy of Pro Day numbers would get brought up. Pro Day numbers and Combine numbers are artificial, to a degree. The basic point was that Willis looks faster on the field when you watch them play, and while I think workout numbers are somewhat artificial, Willis was even faster during his Pro Day, so Mayo still wouldn't seem as fast.

I am not underrating Willis at all. I was an advocate of him last season- not just during draft time, but throughout the whole college year I posted updates on him and discussed him at length with Ochmed Jones, especially his improvements vs the pass. Willis has great speed, but he does take false steps due to recognition issues. That's not an unusual problem for a young ILB, and I expect him to correct those going forward. His best fit was a simpler 3-4 scheme like the one the 49ers ran, which didn't require chameleon changes every week. IMO his rookie year was excellent but overhyped. He was on a terrible losing team which gave him plenty of opportunities for tackles. A good argument can be made Willis was outplayed by Beason in pass coverage and Harris overall once Harris replaced Vilma. I give Willis great credit for durability, attitude in an awful situation on an awful team, and for delivering that devastating body blow to Bulger that broke his ribs and basically ended the Rams season before it began.

Didn't actually say you're underrating Willis. What I did say was that "you're underrating what Willis did in the SEC", when comparing him to Mayo. It's a slight difference, but a difference none the less. I will say that in my opinion, he's a little bit better than even your follow up would suggest. Willis is a very special LB, and he will be considered one of the top 2-3 ILB's in the league within the next few years.

As far as Mayo goes, there are real scouts, who get paid to watch college football, who believe Mayo is the best LB in this draft and potentially the next Al Wilson or Ray Lewis.

Never said Mayo sucks, and I do see a good amount of potential, but he also seems like more of a 43 prospect to me, and a lot of these rankings usually aren't taking the Patriots system into account.

You're comparing him to Ray Lewis seems funny to me, since a number of Patriots fans have said Lewis wouldn't be so great in NE's system. Remember, Lewis doesn't like playing in a 34, and wanted the protection of a 43. I think Mayo needs that same protection, and has issues he would need to overcome in order to be successful within NE's system. I'm not sure he would be able to fully overcome those issues, but strong coaching has developed what looked like a turd in waiting, so who knows...

Also, are these the same scouts who thought Tom Brady didn't have a chance in hell of making it at the pro level? The same scouts who absolutely fell in love with a number of players who became complete bust?

Oh, and I've got one of those future bust for you...JaMarcus Russell. Said it during the 2007 draft, and I still believe he's not going to be anything special in the NFL.

 

[sebman2112]

I just want to make it clear to Sebman that I have alot of respect for his opinions on players and especially his intense interest in football. I don't mind if he considers me a combine geek. The geeks will inherit the earth.

You might be surprised to learn I'm somewhat of a geek, even though I've also been a jock for a large portion of my life. Heck, I even built the PC I'm using right now, and find building PC's to be fun

Now, can I sway you on Mike Jenkins? I went back and watched some of his video this past week, and parts of his game remind me of someone who used to play for the Patriots...

 

[BritPat]

You might be surprised to learn I'm somewhat of a geek, even though I've also been a jock for a large portion of my life. Heck, I even built the PC I'm using right now, and find building PC's to be fun

Now, can I sway you on Mike Jenkins? I went back and watched some of his video this past week, and parts of his game remind me of someone who used to play for the Patriots...

Tebucky Jones?

 

[Metaphors]

Sometimes I word things in that manner (IE: "anyone who's watched them should know this") simply because the point seems obvious to me. How else should I word it? "Your wrong, Willis is faster....blah"? If it seems obvious to me, I'll tell you.

The problem I have is that you use a pro day workout to justify your claim, especially when Mayo didn't run on his pro day. Put that timing aside (and those times are inconsistent and unreliable...unlike the combine) and "anyone who's watched them" would conclude their functional speed is very similar. And living in the south, I've seen my share of SEC football.

Never said Mayo sucks, and I do see a good amount of potential, but he also seems like more of a 43 prospect to me, and a lot of these rankings usually aren't taking the Patriots system into account.

This is one point that is constantly put on this board and gets annoying after a while. The Pats system has a consistent basis but changes year to year based on the players in the system. The Pats will have multiple new starters and likely new bench contributers as well. Even have a new secondary coach. What makes you think you know what will be asked of those players this year? I haven't a clue. Mayo may be a perfect fit if the Pats will be asking the ILB to blitz move, cover more and pursue sideline to sideline. That being said, I think the Pats would have taken Willis last year if possible. He is a special talent and would be productive in any system. I can appreciate Willis (my binky last year) without finding inadequacies in Mayo (my binky this year). They are like beer and sex. Would love to have both but I'm not going to complain if I can only have one.

I think Mayo needs that same protection, and has issues he would need to overcome in order to be successful within NE's system. I'm not sure he would be able to fully overcome those issues, but strong coaching has developed what looked like a turd in waiting, so who knows...

If the Pats select Mayo, you can bet they have a very good idea that he will be successful with the system he will be put into. If the Pats pass on Mayo (especially if they trade down), then they likely didn't think he was a good fit. Belichick and Pioli haven't whiffed on a first rounder yet (please hold the snap judgements on Meriweather).

Also, are these the same scouts who thought Tom Brady didn't have a chance in hell of making it at the pro level? The same scouts who absolutely fell in love with a number of players who became complete bust?

Oh, and I've got one of those future bust for you...JaMarcus Russell. Said it during the 2007 draft, and I still believe he's not going to be anything special in the NFL.

Not getting your point. Are you saying that scouts aren't perfect in their evaluations? No shocker there...but your examples are poor. There are plenty of 1st round busts to choose from (the "Ryan Leaf" category).

Brady was too skinny, lacked arm strength and never fully grabbed the QB job at Michigan. Watching him run the 40 at the combine was comical. Brady did have all the intangibles and a key tangible (6'4"). He bulked up, developed his arm strength and footwork and became a student of the pro game. Scouts would have a hard time predicting that. Brady was a lucky find with a little gut instinct from the Pats thrown in for good measure.

Russell may become a bust, but it is way too early to use him as an example of your prognosticating prowess. He signed late, got in only a handful of games (showing some potential) and he plays in Oakland I'm willing to cut him some slack...provided he doesn't eat himself to Lorenzen proportions.

 

[lapatsfan]

Im more interested in Tommy Mustard, a 5th round projected prospect.

Him or Franklin Relish from East North Dakota Tech

LOL, that was funny.

 

[sebman2112]

The problem I have is that you use a pro day workout to justify your claim, especially when Mayo didn't run on his pro day. Put that timing aside (and those times are inconsistent and unreliable...unlike the combine) and "anyone who's watched them" would conclude their functional speed is very similar. And living in the south, I've seen my share of SEC football.

I already explained what the point of that comment was, and I happen to disagree with your opinion of their in-game speed.

This is one point that is constantly put on this board and gets annoying after a while. The Pats system has a consistent basis but changes year to year based on the players in the system. The Pats will have multiple new starters and likely new bench contributers as well. Even have a new secondary coach. What makes you think you know what will be asked of those players this year? I haven't a clue. Mayo may be a perfect fit if the Pats will be asking the ILB to blitz move, cover more and pursue sideline to sideline. That being said, I think the Pats would have taken Willis last year if possible. He is a special talent and would be productive in any system. I can appreciate Willis (my binky last year) without finding inadequacies in Mayo (my binky this year). They are like beer and sex. Would love to have both but I'm not going to complain if I can only have one.

We don't know that they aren't going to change their system up a bit, but I wouldn't count on Capers addition meaning they will change things up significantly. He's only signed on for one year, and he could move on in '09. At this point, it seems more likely they'll continue to use a defensive system very similar to what they've used the past few years, and in that system I personally believe Mayo wouldn't be a great fit. Also, if they did install a system that uses more blitzes, you need to remember that Mayo can get caught up in traffic, and hasn't been that effective without a free lane to the passer. These are conclusion I came to after watching him, but if you read through his weaknesses in various scouting reports (read 5 different reports on him) you'll notice those paid professionals have been saying the same things. They also seem to think he makes more sense in a 43.

If the Pats select Mayo, you can bet they have a very good idea that he will be successful with the system he will be put into. If the Pats pass on Mayo (especially if they trade down), then they likely didn't think he was a good fit. Belichick and Pioli haven't whiffed on a first rounder yet (please hold the snap judgements on Meriweather).

Yup, if the Patriots select him it would obviously mean they believe his flaws can be coached up, and he'll be a stud in their system, but they would have to actually pick him for that hypothetical to have any impactive meaning.

Not getting your point. Are you saying that scouts aren't perfect in their evaluations? No shocker there...but your examples are poor. There are plenty of 1st round busts to choose from (the "Ryan Leaf" category).

Brady was too skinny, lacked arm strength and never fully grabbed the QB job at Michigan. Watching him run the 40 at the combine was comical. Brady did have all the intangibles and a key tangible (6'4"). He bulked up, developed his arm strength and footwork and became a student of the pro game. Scouts would have a hard time predicting that. Brady was a lucky find with a little gut instinct from the Pats thrown in for good measure.

Russell may become a bust, but it is way too early to use him as an example of your prognosticating prowess. He signed late, got in only a handful of games (showing some potential) and he plays in Oakland I'm willing to cut him some slack...provided he doesn't eat himself to Lorenzen proportions.

Only gave Brady because he's an obvious example of someone the scouts thought had very little chance of making it, and he turned into a very good NFL QB. There have been a number of other players who fall into this category as well. FWIW, there was a single professional scout that I know if who said Brady could be a good QB in the NFL, and projected him as a third round pick.

A player can develop into a bust for a number of reasons, and some of the players eventual problems weren't apparent during his college career. So, the scouts aren't always wrong about those players, but they've obviously been wrong about a good number of players selected in the first round. That doesn't mean they don't know what their talking about, but it goes to my point of their not always being correct, and the opinion of someone like Scott Wright shouldn't always be used to trump the beliefs of others.

JaMarcus Russell isn't being used as an example of my "prognosticating prowess", since he hasn't been given enough time to prove himself yet. What I am saying is that I think he will be a bust, and have since 2007. That doesn't mean I'm correct, but I never bought into his hype, when the professional scouts were practically salivating over him. We'll have to wait a few years to see who was correct though.

 

[Metaphors]

We don't know that they aren't going to change their system up a bit, but I wouldn't count on Capers addition meaning they will change things up significantly. He's only signed on for one year, and he could move on in '09. At this point, it seems more likely they'll continue to use a defensive system very similar to what they've used the past few years, and in that system I personally believe Mayo wouldn't be a great fit.

50% of the secondary rotation is gone.
40% of the linebacker rotation is gone.
A new defensive coach is brought on with head coach and coordinator experience with aggressive schemes.

I'm no rocket scientist, but that points to some changes. I don't think they will be significant in nature (still base 3-4 with responsibilities generally staying the same...the "system" as you call it), but I think it is very unlikely that the defensive play calling will remain the same. Bring pressure, be aggressive in the secondary and put a guy in the middle who can play all over the field. I think that is why you hear Avril, Cason and Mayo all the time on this board.

If the Pats draft a cover 2 corner, an elephant type on the outside and a thumper in the middle...I will be the first to admit the defense will likely be more of the same. I say that now since I won't be able to post it...my wireless doesn't extend out to the ledge I will be on.

 

[sebman2112]

50% of the secondary rotation is gone.
40% of the linebacker rotation is gone.
A new defensive coach is brought on with head coach and coordinator experience with aggressive schemes.

I'm no rocket scientist, but that points to some changes. I don't think they will be significant in nature (still base 3-4 with responsibilities generally staying the same...the "system" as you call it), but I think it is very unlikely that the defensive play calling will remain the same. Bring pressure, be aggressive in the secondary and put a guy in the middle who can play all over the field. I think that is why you hear Avril, Cason and Mayo all the time on this board.

If the Pats draft a cover 2 corner, an elephant type on the outside and a thumper in the middle...I will be the first to admit the defense will likely be more of the same. I say that now since I won't be able to post it...my wireless doesn't extend out to the ledge I will be on.

I get that point, and I've previously voiced my wishes for change in the secondary, blitz packages. I'm hoping they play a more physical brand of coverage going forward, but I still expect to see plenty of zone coverages.

Avril has some similarities to Colvin, so he would fit into what they've been doing the past few years.

Cason can play physical, and has been successful in man coverages, but he's also very good in zone, has strong ball skills, and gets a good break on the ball, so I believe he would actually fit in with what they've been doing. He's more physical (and has better size) than Samuel though, so they would have more flexibility in their secondary.

Mayo is the only prospect of the three you mentioned who doesn't really seem like a great fit, if they're using a similar defensive system & scheme. You don't expect them to switch over to a 43 full time, or start running a Wade Phillips style 1 gap, right?

 

[Metaphors]

Mayo is the only prospect of the three you mentioned who doesn't really seem like a great fit, if they're using a similar defensive system & scheme. You don't expect them to switch over to a 43 full time, or start running a Wade Phillips style 1 gap, right?

Not at all. I just see Mayo's skill set being effective in a more aggressive scheme. Two things I noticed last year that bothered me:

1) Running plays where the ILB is late to the hole, RB makes one quick move, ILB tumbles to the ground like he was shot, RB gets into the secondary.

2) Weak passes by weak-armed QBs over the middle being completed with regularity, keeping inferior teams in games.

If a guard or FB fires out and makes it to the second level...and the rest of the OL can engage Warren, Wilfork, Seymour and AD/Vrabel enough to open a hole...I'll just accept the yards that result and give the offense credit.

I will be physically ill if I see Feeley, Boller or Eli throwing garbage down the middle of the field and prolonging another gut-wrenching, quarter-killing drive.

That is why Mayo is my binky this year. He's not Ted Johnson or Tedy Bruschi or Junior Seau (older versions). He can't thump like Willis and run through blocks. But I really like what Mayo is ABLE to do on the field. He isn't a traditional fit for the Pats defense as you have noted. I'm just not big on traditions that result in a Manning starring in an SI commercial.