Pats Mock

[PonyExpress]

Patriots Mock Draft

Here are the Pats’ needs as I see them:
1. #1 cornerback: Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, Eric Warfield?
2. #2 receiver, a long term answer: Reche Caldwell?
3. Quickness and youth at RB: Dillon, Faulk, and Pass?
4. Pass rusher at OLB: move Vrabel outside again?
5. Return specialist: Troy Brown and Bethel Johnson?
6. Quality youth at ILB: Ryan Claridge?
7. Back-up Nose Tackle: Mike Wright and Santonio Thomas?
8. 3-4 DE depth: Marquise Hill?
9. 3rd string QB: Doug Flutie?
10. Place Kicker: Martin Grammatica?

Here are the needs that I feel for certain should be addressed in the draft:
1. #1 cornerback
2. #2 receiver, a long term answer
3. Quickness and youth at RB
4. Pass rusher at OLB
5. Return Specialist

The players I think the Pats should target in Day One to address those five needs are:
1st String: Richard Marshall, Mo Stovall, Brian Calhoun, Manny Lawson, Mo Drew.
2nd String: Dee Webb, Michael Hass, Mo Drew, Mathias Kiwanuka, TJ Rushing.
3rd string: Derrick Martin, Jason Avant, Dontrelle Moore, Daryl Tapp/Mark Anderson, Will Blackmon.

Here is a guess as to the range where each of those players will be drafted, and the mean value of each player in points according to the Trade Value Chart.
Lawson 11-21 (1000)
Kiwanuka 14-35 (720)
Marshall 25-43 (550)
Stovall 32-49 (500)
Calhoun 35-61 (410)
Drew 41-75 (370)
Webb 45-75 (300)
Tapp 43-65 (360)
Anderson 64-78 (240)
Martin 65-100 (175)
Hass 75-120 (112)
Avant 98-120 (74)
Blackmon 98-133 (62)
Moore 98-169 (44)
Rushing: 225-256 (2)

Here are the draft picks the Pats have, and their total point value according to the Trade Value chart:
Picks: 21(800), 52(380), 77(205), 86(160), 106(82), 118(58), 136(38), 191(16), 205(NA), 206(NA), 229(2).
Total tradeable points: 1781.
Untradeable picks: 205 and 206.

So the problem becomes how to best address those five needs with a limited budget of only 1781 points at our disposal.

Here are my favorites solutions, assuming the Pats make the maneuvers needed to draft each player at his mean value.
1. Marshall, Stovall, Drew, Anderson. (Total points: 1660)
2. Marshall, Stovall, Drew, Tapp. (1730)
3. Kiwi, Marshall, Drew, Avant. (1714)
4. Kiwi, Stovall, Drew, Martin. (1765)
5. Lawson, Drew, Webb, Avant. (1744)
6. Lawson, Stovall, Martin, Moore, Rushing: (1721)
7. Lawson, Calhoun, Martin, Hass, Blackmon: (1759)

Any of these scenarios leave the Pats with at least their two untradeable compensatory picks, #205 and #206, to select a back-up QB and a kicker.

 

[bucky]

I have to disagree with your needs assessment a little. I think Samuel is absolutely a #1 CB and the need at that position is for depth only. The pass rushing need is probably much higher than most people think. Not because Willie left, but because Colvin has lost a lot of speed and we don't have a speed edge rusher - which is a HUGE asset in the NFL.

The scenario I really like - a combination of scenarios 5 and 7 - Lawson, Drew, Avant, Blackmon, Webb and maybe Kai Praham as well.

 

[PonyExpress]

I have to disagree with your needs assessment a little. I think Samuel is absolutely a #1 CB and the need at that position is for depth only. The pass rushing need is probably much higher than most people think. Not because Willie left, but because Colvin has lost a lot of speed and we don't have a speed edge rusher - which is a HUGE asset in the NFL.

The scenario I really like - a combination of scenarios 5 and 7 - Lawson, Drew, Avant, Blackmon, Webb and maybe Kai Praham as well.

Bucky,
If the Pats draft Lawson, Drew, Webb, Avant, Blackmon and Parham, the total value of those picks in draft points (assuming my guess as to the mean value of those players is correct) would be 1856 points. Since the Pats only have 1781 to play with in this draft, they would have to trade a 2007 3rd rd pick to get all the players you want. That doesn’t seem like their MO, but we've been surprised before.

 

[Flying Fungi]

I have to disagree with your needs assessment a little. I think Samuel is absolutely a #1 CB and the need at that position is for depth only. The pass rushing need is probably much higher than most people think. Not because Willie left, but because Colvin has lost a lot of speed and we don't have a speed edge rusher - which is a HUGE asset in the NFL.

The scenario I really like - a combination of scenarios 5 and 7 - Lawson, Drew, Avant, Blackmon, Webb and maybe Kai Praham as well.

I agree--except that I don't see that Colvin has lost a lot of speed. Willie was more of a bull rusher than a speed rusher. Regardless...I have made it no secret that I'd love to have Kiwi here...and the fact that nobody--nobody--is talking about Kiwanuka speaks volumes to me. I would not be surprised to see us move up in front of Dallas to make a grab at him.

 

[bucky]

Bucky,
If the Pats draft Lawson, Drew, Webb, Avant, Blackmon and Parham, the total value of those picks in draft points (assuming my guess as to the mean value of those players is correct) would be 1856 points. Since the Pats only have 1781 to play with in this draft, they would have to trade a 2007 3rd rd pick to get all the players you want. That doesn’t seem like their MO, but we've been surprised before.

Well, it falls within 5%, which I'm sure is less than the margin of error in your point assignments. The Pats also have enough picks to draft all 6 guys in the first 4 rounds, assuming they keep them. And if Lawson falls to 21, they probably would in this scenario.

 

[PonyExpress]

Well, it falls within 5%, which I'm sure is less than the margin of error in your point assignments. The Pats also have enough picks to draft all 6 guys in the first 4 rounds, assuming they keep them. And if Lawson falls to 21, they probably would in this scenario.

Very true. I was being petty.

 

[mgteich]

I suppose you would be ecstatic if Lawson is really chosen at the spots whose value is 800.

 

[rookBoston]

Here are my favorites solutions, assuming the Pats make the maneuvers needed to draft each player at his mean value.
1. Marshall, Stovall, Drew, Anderson. (Total points: 1660)
2. Marshall, Stovall, Drew, Tapp. (1730)
3. Kiwi, Marshall, Drew, Avant. (1714)
4. Kiwi, Stovall, Drew, Martin. (1765)
5. Lawson, Drew, Webb, Avant. (1744)
6. Lawson, Stovall, Martin, Moore, Rushing: (1721)
7. Lawson, Calhoun, Martin, Hass, Blackmon: (1759)

Any of these scenarios leave the Pats with at least their two untradeable compensatory picks, #205 and #206, to select a back-up QB and a kicker.

Love your evaluation. Disagree in parts, mostly based on your Needs Assessment, which I would have stacked a bit differently. But it's mostly semantic.

My favorite is option #1 which (ironically) is the cheapest.

#3 is cool, too.

 

[PonyExpress]

I suppose you would be ecstatic if Lawson is really chosen at the spots whose value is 800.

:rocker: That would be manna from heaven. it would also save us 200 bonus points to spend on our other needs...
Another thought: Do you recall how Dan Koppen was the 18th player on the Pats’ value board when they took him in the 5th rd? This hints at a number of interesting things. (1) the incredible discipline BB has in being willing to wait for the 18th best player in the draft into the 5th rd; and (2) that there were probably a very small number of players on the Pats board to begin with.

 

[PonyExpress]

Love your evaluation. Disagree in parts, mostly based on your Needs Assessment, which I would have stacked a bit differently. But it's mostly semantic.

My favorite is option #1 which (ironically) is the cheapest.

#3 is cool, too.

Rook,
you can see that this method corresponds with your own "value grouping" analysis. Interestingly enough, it allows you to know before the draft what players you will end up with... it will be one of your preestablished groupings. For instance, if you trade up for Lawson, you can cross off all of the groupings that didn't include him, and you are left with a prioritized list of "Lawson Groupings". Then you lie in wait for the second player in your highest "Lawson grouping". If that player is selected before your turn comes, you check your next priority "Lawson grouping", and immediately trade up and take the second player listed there. This process of elimination continues until all the possible groupings have been crossed off except the one you actually end up with. A bit mechanical, but it provides a degree of cost and need certainty and allows you to maneuver through the draft with a real purpose.

 

[BelichickFan]

3. Kiwi, Marshall, Drew, Avant. (1714)

I like this a lot with either Kiwi or Lawson (I think it's 50-50 that they'll both be there at #21). The only thing is I don't love Drew. Yes, he's intriguing as a returner and a change of pace guy so I wouldn't hate it. But I would probably slot in an equivalent OL or TE in his place. Also my gut feeling says we could get Avant in the 4th round as opposed to the late #3 you have here but I wouldn't hate taking him there - I'd just have a feeling we could get him a little later.

 

[PonyExpress]

I like this a lot with either Kiwi or Lawson (I think it's 50-50 that they'll both be there at #21). The only thing is I don't love Drew. Yes, he's intriguing as a returner and a change of pace guy so I wouldn't hate it. But I would probably slot in an equivalent OL or TE in his place. Also my gut feeling says we could get Avant in the 4th round as opposed to the late #3 you have here but I wouldn't hate taking him there - I'd just have a feeling we could get him a little later.

BF,
The way I prioritized needs and my choice for the pool of players are highly subjective and probably deeply flawed. Any suggested changes are welcome. On the other hand, setting up priority groupings according to a cross section of need and positional rankings, based on total value, seems intriguing. I just wish it were easier to explain in a sentence.