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  1. captadamnj

    captadamnj On the Game Day Roster

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    Week 5 of Sunday NFL football in the books (still got tonite's game). Trying to get something positive to look forward to, so thought I'd break down the current AFC standings (teams listed in current order of standings) to see where we stand. A "brutal" schedule of having to play the South divisions in each conference is now shaping up to be more of a scheduling boon than any of us could have hoped for. Let's hope the Pats use it to their advantage. (I like the defense, and despite loosing 2nd half leads, the D has had little help from the O in the 2nd half of the two losses. The O improves through the year as Brady and the receivers improve whatever it is that isn't working like we've seen in the past.)

    Here's where things stand right now, half the conference essentially in the playoff picture (more complete breakdowns below) based on current record and schedule the rest of the way.

    DEN (5-0, leads IND on strength of victory)
    IND (5-0)
    CIN (4-1)
    NYJ (3-1)
    PIT (3-2)
    BAL (3-2)
    NWE (3-2)
    SD (2-2)

    My feeling is that of the above 8, two of the teams from the AFC North will wind up with lesser records than the Pats (as well as all teams not currently listed). I'm looking for a division championship, but if not, then I like our odds in a 3+ team wild card race based on the fact that the North is going to beat each other up affecting their overall conference record.

    Pass the kool-aid, here's to the playoffs and beyond!

    East -
    Jets (3-1) - Chance at 12-4. Penciling in losses on the road to Pats and Colts, plus a loss in one of the Miami games or, based on current records, tough home games against Falcons (although a cold weather game for a dome team from the south) and the Bengals.
    Pats (3-2) - At least as good a chance or better than the Jets to be 12-4. Toughest games will be home for the Jets (but we just pencil in that as a W, right?!), at the Colts and at the Saints. Other games all should be favored in.
    Dolphins (2-2) - Hard time finding 10 wins on their schedule with 2 games still against both the Jets and Pats along with games against the Saints and Steelers.
    Bills (1-4) - TO who?

    Jets and Pats in playoffs. At 12-4 (or better), I like us as Division champs either straight up or in a tie-breaker with the Jets on division record (5-1 vs 4-2 as Jets lose to Pats and one to Miami).

    North -
    Bengals (4-1) - On tap for 10-11 wins, but the Bengals? THE BENGALS?!? 3 quality wins by a total of 9 points. I don't see their luck holding up all season with games against Baltimore, @ Pitt, @ Minn, @ SD, @ NYJ. At least 3 losses there, plus at least another loss or two somewhere because they are still the Bungles. I think.
    Ravens (3-2) - 8-8 isn't out of the realm of possibility. @ Minn, Denver, @ Cin, Indy, Pitt, @ GB, @ Pitt could all come up as an "L" leaving them sub-500.
    Steelers (3-2) - Still likely the class of the division with 11+ wins possible if they keep the running game going, Ben upright and find a way to win the close road games they've lost so far this season. Minn, @ Den, Cinn, GB and a pair against the Ravens look like toughest games, but 4 of those games are at home.
    Browns (1-4) - Punter was their best player on the field yesterday. QB's stats made Jamarcus Russell stats look good. Who will be gone first, their coach or their heralded first round QB?

    I like the Steelers for the division. Cinn and Bal could challenge, or in running for Wild Card. If we have to compete for Wild Card, we already have the head-to-head tie breaker of Bal and these teams will all beat up each other for conference record tie-break.

    South -
    Colts (5-0) - Hate to admit it, but the only thing holding this team back from 13 wins right now is that they may have the division wrapped up by T-giving. Home games against the Pats, Broncos and Jets. We know they'll lose at least one of those (;)). @ Texans and @ Jags in division games.
    Jaguars (2-3) - Hard time finding 10 wins, and maybe another battle for .500. @ Jets, @ 49ers, Colts, @ Pats. They might look like world beaters, however, after next week's game at home against the Rams.
    Texans (2-3) - See also - Jags, only harder schedule. @ Cinn, @ SF, Pats, a pair against the Colts.
    Titans (0-5) - NFL = Not For Long (until we see VY?)

    Colts as division winners.

    West -
    Broncos (5-0) - Going with 11-5, but neither 12 wins nor 10 (or less) would surprise me. @ Bal, Pitt, NYG, @ PHI, @ IND, plus a pair with SD.
    Chargers (2-2) - Going with 11-5 also. @ NYG, PHI, Cinn, a pair with DEN = 3 losses.
    Raiders (1-4) - You just have to feel for Seymour. Turns out, however, that his coach may be a harder hitter than he is.
    Chiefs (0-5) - At least Pioli, Cassel and Vrabel have each other to comfort.

    Broncos and Chargers both worth mentioning for playoffs right now, with Den leading the division champ race right now. If we have to go the Wild Card route in a 3 (or more) horse race, let's hope Den definitely wins the West since we're already behind the 8-ball on head-head and conference record.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2009
  2. mfaith

    mfaith Rookie

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    There's still a lot of football left. The Pats still have an excellent chance to win the division especially considering the Jets have a rookie QB.
     
  3. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan In the Starting Line-Up

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    #50 Jersey

    I stop back after Thanksgiving.....:rolleyes:
     
  4. Shrekk

    Shrekk On the Roster

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    I agree with alot here, except a few things, with jets, you penciled indy as a loss, but keep in mind the jets play indy in week 16, if indy continues to roll and the rest of the south keeps playing poorly, you may see sorgy instead of manning under center. in my estimation the colts might only have 2 losses by week 16, perhaps already grabbing the number one seed, there would be no reason to put mannings neck on the line against a blitz happy defense in a game that means nothing. i see the colts going 13-3 at the very least. theyll be 8-0 before their first tough game against new england. they only have 4 tough games which is annoying, patritots, denver, baltimore, and jets. i can only see them handed a loss from these opponents.


    I say that the afc west and afc south send one team to the playoffs: denver and indy, the afc east will send two, jets and patriots, wc or div. winner depends on how the season plays out, and in the north id expect to see baltimore and either pitt or cin, im inclined to think cincy, considering pittsburgh is having issues even against teams like detroit who almost won.

    So here is my pre mature playoff picture:

    1- Colts (anywhere between 13-3 and 15-1)
    2- Jets or Pats (anywhere between 11-5 and 13-3)
    3- Bal/Cincy (10-6/11-5)
    4- Denver (10-6/11-5)
    5- Jets or Pats (anywhere between 11-5 and 13-3)
    6- Cincy/Bal/Pitt (9-7/10-6)
     
  5. Phoenix111

    Phoenix111 Banned

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    Pats own tiebreaker over Ravens. Their conf records are the same but Pats won the head to head...if it ended now of course.
     
  6. captadamnj

    captadamnj On the Game Day Roster

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    3-way Wild Card tiebreaker different than two-team head-to-head unless one team has beaten both teams head-to-head. Next applicable is won/loss/tied in the conference, thus the current conference ordering.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2009
  7. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    I give Denver all the credit in the world for their gutsy win yesterday but I see deja vu in that division,I see a Broncos team falling apart by midseason and the Chargers stealing the division away again. - Denver will win 9 or 10 games at most...yes,even at 5-0 I am saying this.
     
  8. bostonia3333

    bostonia3333 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I think the Pats are well within the playoff picture:), but their seeding is going to be pretty low. I think Pitt may get the no. 2 seed--that team is too complete to go 9-7 or 10-6. The bad news about the Pats loss to Denver is it makes the likelihood of getting a first round bye pretty unlikely. I think 12-4 is too optimistic because that means you have to go 9-2 the rest of the way--sounds like no room for error.

    It's likely that Pats would host a wild card game---I hate having the Pats play 3 games to get to a Super Bowl---but that's the punishment you get when you play not to lose on defense.
     
  9. Shrekk

    Shrekk On the Roster

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    I have to disagree with your assessment of pittsburgh, they are not the smash mouth defense of yesteryear. Dick Lebeau not being there has had an effect. Pittsburgh has 6 games left that are certainly losable, they have minnesota, denver, baltimore twice, cincinati, and green bay. and the season finale against miami is no guarantee. I would not be surprised to see pittsburgh miss the playoffs. its a 3 horse race in the north i think the team that comes in 3rd misses the playoffs and the 2nd place team gets the 6th seed.
     
  10. captadamnj

    captadamnj On the Game Day Roster

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    2 losses in 11 games allows them to err 18% of the time! :D
     
  11. captadamnj

    captadamnj On the Game Day Roster

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    Not thinking much of SD then? Even if they loose all 5 of the "tough" games I listed (based on current records) that still puts them at 9-7 and in the hunt for the 6th seed based on your projections.
     
  12. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think the Broncos need 4 more wins to win the division. I don't see the Chargers going better than 8-8. The Chargers aren't a good team. Their two wins are against the Raiders and the Dolphins and they barely beat the Raiders. I think the Broncos will win the AFC West pretty handily. I expect them to go 6-0 with a win over the Chargers this weekend. And Denver still has Oakland and KC twice, Washington, San Deigo twice, and Philly might not be playing for anything when they meet the second to last game of the season (the Giants could have the division locked up and Philly may have the first Wild Card locked up by then).

    Going into this weekend, I thought the Broncos could get 9-10 wins. I have upped it to 10-11, possibly 12.
     
  13. Shrekk

    Shrekk On the Roster

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    I was ready to coronate SD as afc west champs before the seasons started but after seeing them play defense, or not play defense, i dont think they will make the playoffs, not playing good defense allows mediocre teams to beat you in the so called trap games. there are always games you expect a team to win and they end up faltering chargers wont get better than 9-7.
     
  14. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Your optimism is great, and I realize this is not going to be too popular of a post. Sorry to those that are offended, but I'm not sure how you could be talking about the playoffs right now, we have a long way to go.

    So far here are some positives and negatives:

    NEGATIVES

    --BB is now 0-2 v. rookie head coaches this yr

    --average running game, major injury for biggest piece of O-line (LT), and leading rusher (Taylor)

    --absolutely no WR other than Welker. Moss is doubled, and it seems like TB is trying to buy time almost every passing play, looking for Welker. We are using a TE/slot receiver based offense, which means no one goes downfield more than 10-15 yds it seems

    --there has been 1 dominant game out of 5, ATL. Every other game has either been a loss, or a dramatic escape. We certainly could've lost to BUF and or BAL, luckily we didn't, but by no means have been anything more than competitive--certainly not dominant at all

    --are 0-2 on the road

    --On defense, not too much pressure, lots of time for QB to throw. many teams choose to pick us apart w/ underneath routes, since we are taking away the long passes

    --that's 2 second half collapses now, both had nice leads going into the half v. NYJ and DEN

    --after 1/3 of the season, Randy Moss is tied for the lead in INT w/ 1

    --the passing D is on pace for how many TD's this yr? at least 20. A long cry from the Colts great secondary a few yrs ago of giving up 7 or 8 IIRC

    --problems with execution and penalties. Off-sides on a game winning, OT, field goal? not usually on our team in the past. may have been the game, who knows?

    --offense has given up 2 TD's in 5 games

    --special teams problems in many aspects

    --2 AFC losses in 5 games, on pace for a 10-6 record, probably not good enough for the playoffs with teams like NYJ, BAL, PIT, CIN, SD, DEN, IND

    POSITIVES:

    --We have played a difficult schedule, but one that will remain hard if we want to succeed

    --We have BB and Brady

    --O-line has looked decent, giving up a sack per game

    --secondary has looked better than in the recent past

    --D has looked good, although 4 of 5 games have been scores of 24,23,21,20, however the offense gave up 2 TD's in that span

    --D line has looked ok in replacing Seymour

    --team has the ability to compete, pretty much in every game

    --team usually gels down the stretch


    I agree that this yr's team has playoff potential, but I also agree that there are many holes to fix and patch. There are almost 1/3 of the teams who look better than our team right now. I don't think, I personally will be worried about the playoffs right now, and I bet you'd get a reaction out of BB much like the Jim Mora Sr commercial--but I understand your points too

    Sorry to offend the homers, or sound like a chicken little, I am simply trying to say that the playoffs are a long way off---not saying that we are not going, or not expected to go, because I think and hope we will of course
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2009
  15. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Chargers haven't looked good in any aspect other than their passing game so far this season. They made the Raiders' offense look somewhat competitent. Teams have been running over them all season. They haven't been able to run the ball even with LT. I am not confident this team can win all the games they are supposed to win.

    The Chargers were 9-7 last year. They weren't really impressive either. They are living on reputation. If they were in a more competitive division, I wouldn't give them more than 4-6 wins.
     
  16. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    UMMM McKelvin was in FOXBORO when he gave us that gift
     
  17. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    #12 Jersey

    Yeah I think we are okay for the playoffs. This year 11-5 will be good enough and I think that's worst case scenario for us.

    Baltimore most likely will not finish better than 11-5. San Diego will probably be 10-6 at best. Even if you assume Cincy or Pittsburgh (whoever doesn't win the AFC North) finishes above us, our only competition for the last spot looks like Houston and Jacksonville. Hard to see either of those teams going 11-5.

    The win over Baltimore could prove to be huge if it comes down to that later on. Hopefully it doesn't and we run the tables like in '03 :)
     
  18. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not only that. Even if McKelvin took a knee in the endzone and got the touchback, the Pats still could have stopped the Bills and gotten the ball back in time to win the game. McKelvin fumbled at 2:06 and the Pats had all three of their time outs. That means the clock would stop four times before the end of the game for the Pats to get the ball back and go down the field for a TD. It would have made it far tougher for the Pats to accomplish that feat, but it was far from impossible for the Pats to win if McKelvin didn't fumble the ball.
     
  19. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    yeah, really--talk abt a brain fart. sorry all, ill change it

    EDIT: sorry abt that, regardless, we're still 0-2 on the road, not much better
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2009
  20. Spiral

    Spiral PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ahhh. 2007 seems like a long time ago. For Red Sox fans, too.
     
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