PATs-JAGs difficult game to predict

[JR4]

Thinking about this game ... there are several match up that have,
at least for me, become difficult to assess.

1. PATs Oline vs Jags Dline/Blitzers
This has become increasingly difficult. I can't get out of my mind
the Miami game and the visions of the Oline just being mauled.
Have they improved since then? Matt Light may have a better day
but Kaczur may be outclassed by Bobby McCray all day.The interior of
the line also is a question. Jags can bring some serious heat up the middle.

2. PATs run game vs JAgs run D.
Again it's not that PATs don't have some very good RBs but can the Oline
block well enough against the Jags very good Dline ... will PATs even be able to get to JAGs LBs?

3. Jags Run game aginst PATs run D.
This is also hard to gauge. If it were pre-Seau injury I would say -
PATs run D will stop Jags. Now with Seau and it looks like Wilfork out and with
three position changes in the Vrabel -> ILB, Colvin -> LOLB and
Banta Cain -> ROLB, this is a new defense.
Even if they will eventually do well ... as of now they do not have much
time working together in this new configuration.
One hope here is the JAGs RBs are banged up and may not do as well.
But this new kid JAGs are hinting at using may cause problems ... PATs
won't have much film on him.

4. PATs WRs against Jags secondary
This does not look good for PATs especially if Oline struggles. I expect the
JAGs to try and do exactly the same thing Miami did. Without a deep threat
or without an Oline to protect long enough to make one ... this could be
a long day for the passing game. The screen game worked nicely last
week but you can bet JAGs will be ready for that. It looks like Watson
won't be available. The one hope here is PATs have potential to get
some rather unknown players in the mix - Knight and Jackson. Jags may
not be reeady for what Jackson can bring if he is ready.
I keep reminding myself the Jags D is one that kept Manning to a
61 QB rating and he has some great WRs.

5. The Jags passing game vs PATs D
This should not be a serious problem but if PATs find themselves having
to adjust to stop the run then it could be.

To me the hardest thing to evaluate is PATs Oline and PATs run D in
relation to what JAGs bring.
Any insights?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Lots of screens last week, makes you wonder if they were just in for the Houston game or if someone looked at the score and decided to run a few extra as "bait" for the Jags...

1. Jags had to shuffle new players onto the roster to account for DE injuries, this may help.
2. Mankins, Koppen, & Neal blocking on Stroud and Henderson, last season Hochstein was the C and there was still some movement inside.
3. I have more doubts about Seymour than I do the four LBs in new positions. Besides, BB is going to come out in a 5 -2 look sitting Colvin and Banta-Cain, that way he can disrupt the post-game analysis between Mr. Bigglesworth and myself.
4. Somedays the bear eats you, this is a problem match-up based on the first 14 games.
5. The Jags have a passing game? I mean one besides the jump ball and interception toss.

 

[teamplay]

good post: a war in the trenches!

Against the Jags, we'd better have some field stretching ability: Maroney, Faulk, Jackson, Gaffney...no recent consistency in the bunch...reason for concern.

My optimism about the game come from two places: the Pats playing well in late season games, and the inexperience of Garrard.

 

[PatsFan37]

Good post, JR4. I'd like to talk about your comments on the Jags pass defense and rushing offense. It's all about matchups. Here's why:

No team is perfect and the Pats offensive strength is not in the passing game. So here's the bad news for the Jags strength at shutting down the league's top WRs. We don't have any.

Why do the Jags demolish the Colts? Because they can stop that fantastic passing game, those great receivers, then take the field and run over the Colts light, quick defense. They take away the Colt's strength and hit them where they're weak. The Colts cannot take away the Jags strength.

But the Pats can.

So what is the Pats strength on offense? Damned if I know. Shifty backs, a QB who usually doesn't make mistakes, TEs who can run people over, ability to play a field position game, one of the best 2-minute no-huddle offenses. And did I mention, a QB with a steel-trap mind. It's a multiple offense that the Jags will find as tough to shut down as any because it doesn't feature any one thing.

Again, back to the Jags offense: are you worried about a small, shifty back? Were you worried about Willie Parker, too? That's what makes those fits in the 3-4 defense so boring. Jones-Drew is best against opportunistic, upfield 4-3 defenses like the Colts.

How about the Jags tall receivers? Did you worry about the Bear's receivers? The Bengals? That steady pressure, Seymour's big hands and Samuel and yes, Hobbs, jumping routes are a scary thing for Garrard to face.

If I'm worried about anything, it's pass interference, except that our corners are fast and likely won't get beaten downfield, which is typically how PI calls happen. The other worry, of course, is injuries against these big fellows who will be playing at home in a must-win game.

One more thing for all those screaming about the cap. This will be a field position game. Now aren't you glad they had the money to sign a reliable punter after TWO punters went down? Like Jonathan Kraft has said, they see cap space as an asset. This is why.

 

[JR4]

.....

So what is the Pats strength on offense? Damned if I know. Shifty backs, a QB who usually doesn't make mistakes, TEs who can run people over, ability to play a field position game, one of the best 2-minute no-huddle offenses. And did I mention, a QB with a steel-trap mind. It's a multiple offense that the Jags will find as tough to shut down as any because it doesn't feature any one thing.
.......

Miami didn't have much problem with PATs offense. Their method
1. play manup on WRs and be physical with them.
2. Over power the Oline
3. pressure the QB
4. play good run D

Why can't JAGs do that as well?

But somethings have change which improve PATs ability to deal with JAGs.
PATs do now have a decent Punter so the field postion may not be as bad
as it was with Miami.
PATs may have Maroney back and that would help.
Also of benefit for PATs is Matt Light won't have to contend with J.Taylor so he may do better.

What is not so good is:
PATs are now missing Watson unless that changes. That is a blow to PATs
offense especially going up agaisnt one of the best Ds in the league.