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Pats have an Easy Road to Hoe: Strength of Schedule

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by VJCPatriot, May 9, 2011.

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  1. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    Pats strength of schedule this year is only .504. That ties for 15th in the NFL despite them finishing with the top record in the NFL in 2010. (Reported on ESPN). This is ALSO the weakest strength of the schedule in the entire division. Yes, an even easier road than the Jets, Bills, or Dolphins have to face.

    Factor into that strength of schedule that the Pats drafted players at positions that have less of a transition, ie the lockout will affect them the least if training camp starts late, and you have an advantage coming right out of the gate.

    2011 Draft:
    Two RBs - easily the easiest position to translate into the NFL.
    Two OL - fairly easy transition coupled with one of the best offensive line coaches in the game once they do make it into camp.
    One QB - will hold the clipboard for years with no expectation to start.
    One CB - one of the easiest transition positions on defense in the NFL. Not nearly as difficult to learn as a linebacker in the Pats defense.

    Now combine the above advantage with the easiest schedule in the AFC East. What's not to like? Taking those factors into account, I see a minimum of 12 wins for the Pats in 2011. Another 14 wins is not out of the question either.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2011
  2. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    How is it the easiest schedule in the AFCE? They all play a common schedule except for two games. In those game the Pats as a first place finisher get the first place finishers in the other AFC divisions and it goes down the line Jets 2nd place finisher, get 2nd place teams, Dolphins 3rd and Bills 4th. Other wise the schedules are identical...
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2011
  3. Oswlek

    Oswlek In the Starting Line-Up

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    The Patriots have a harder SOS than the other teams in the AFCE because those guys have to face a 14-2 juggernaut twice!

    (though a flawed 14-2 juggernaut with no pass rush and no deep threat that will be lucky to win 8 games in 2012, according to a lot of the commentary on this board)

    SOS based on last year's records is meaningless. Unless someone really thinks the Vikings were one of the 4 best teams in the league in 2010, and that Cincy was a playoff contender
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2011
  4. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The reason the Pats schedule ranks as being 'easier' is because ... the Pats don't play the Pats - but the other teams on their schedule do. I realize that sounds like I'm stating the obvious, but it is something tends to be overlooked whenever the topic of strength of schedule comes up. It also one of many reasons that while strength of schedule discussions are fun, they shouldn't be taken too seriously either.
     
  5. PYPER

    PYPER Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    You beat me to it.

    Consider the Bills/Patriots comparison.
    For Buffalo, their two games vs the Pats boosts there strength of schedule b/c it adds 28 wins and only 4 losses (14-2 X 2) whereas those same two games actually brings down the Patriots SoS b/c it adds only 8 wins vs 24 losses (4-12 X 2).

    In other words, in the 14 other games the Patriots and Bills play, the Patriots SoS could be 19 games harder than Buffalo's but when you add in the head-to-head matches, the result is a 20 game swing to their respective totals.

    This is why this method of evaluating SoS is flawed. It needs to be broken down into greater detail.
     
  6. eom

    eom In the Starting Line-Up

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    Why would you hoe a road?
    aren't they usually a street corner item?
     
  7. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Drum, drum--(rimshot) cymbals... :)
     
  8. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    There's an awful lot to like about the chances in the upcoming season. As someone who rarely ever gets amped up or excited, I am finding it hard to contain myself when looking ahead. Maybe there's actually some optimism in me afterall??

    All that said, I do agree that SOS is somewhat flawed, as described by PYPER. 2 games vs common opponents can really swing the numbers in our favor, however your overall point is much agreed upon here. A .504 SOS is still a .504, which obviously bodes well for our team. I do expect the usual though--and I say the same thing every year...a loss on the road, a loss in the division, a loss at home, and an 'unexpected' loss (a la CLE last yr) are pretty much what I have grown accustomed to expecting.

    I will agree that if I had to make a prediction today, that I wouldn't see why 12-4 is not a realistic goal.
     
  9. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #24 Jersey

    only on Patsfans.com can playing the NFC east and resurgent AFC west along with the likes of Indy and Pittsburgh be an "easy rode"
     
  10. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Don't pick on the guy too badly. That is because he messed up the metaphor. It should have been... a tough Row [of corn], to Hoe...

    I saw someone the other day mix metaphors and say "...that train sailed a long time ago..." :cool:
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2011
  11. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Well I don't know if its easy or not, but if it truly is an easier schedule, then all I have to say, "Its about Freakin' TIME!".....but I know it isn't easy:rolleyes:
     
  12. Rob0729

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    Talking Strength of Schedule in May is an exercise in futility. I guarantee you the Pats' 2011 SOS come January will look nothing like it does now. It could be much harder or much worse. The Pats based on last year's records, have a relatively easy September and December/January, but have a murder's row in October and November. Now the way things shake out, the schedule could end up being tough in September and December and weak in the other months. No one knows for sure.

    That said, Michael Irvin does look a little stupid (nothing new to him) saying the Pats have the toughest schedule he has seen by any team in years.
     
  13. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    It could be a bit of a benefit to get off to a good start, and a good finish--with some of the kinks/harder challenges coming in the middle.

    I do agree about the exercise in futility though, but it never hurts to be optimistic ;)
     
  14. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Pro Bowl Player

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    The schedule looked pretty easy for the World Champion Patriots heading into the 2002 season....we all know that season was a disappointment after a super start.

    Nothing is for certain and we all know there will be teams that were great last year and will stink this year and vice versa.

    Three teams that we are playing that I could see going from mediocre to good this year are the Raiders,Redskins and Cowboys if their new/semi new HCs can keep the team focused.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2011
  15. Richard Camembert

    Richard Camembert On the Game Day Roster

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    #54 Jersey

    Should be, "Easy row to hoe," of course.
     
  16. eom

    eom In the Starting Line-Up

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    sos is really pointless.

    the point is to win your division, and outside of a couple games, we all have pretty much the same schedule, unless you want to count home/away, travel, night games, etc.
    the question is which team in the division will be best, and I think that's the pats --- just like I thought last year when so many predicted their demise.

    I'd echo the guy's who's all amped up about this upcoming season --- I think they'll be even better than last year.

    last year, outside our tough division, here's what we were looking at:

    vs Bengals (not so good, but they were in 2009)
    vs Ravens
    @ Chargers
    vs Vikings
    @ Steelers
    vs Colts
    vs Packers

    and like I said, that's aside from 2 against jets and miami.
    the one 'soft' game was cle -- how'd that work out?

    how is next year going to be worse than 2010?

    here are the 'good' teams outside our division:
    vs Chargers -- same as every year
    @ Steelers -- same as last year
    vs Colts -- same as every year

    outside of the big 3 in the afc you've got maybe giants, chiefs, and eagles.

    this looks like just another pats schedule to me --- you don't know how all these teams will look in 2011.
    we'll be good as long as we beat the division.
     
  17. jsull87

    jsull87 In the Starting Line-Up

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    That and the fact i looked at the strength of schedule last year and went ... CR@P we'll be happy with 11-5 and exstatic with 12-4 but we ended up at 14-2. You just never know which teams will break out any given year. tell you what i am intrigued how the lions will go with that defensive front.
     
  18. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Heres to hoping that the 8th Circuit makes a decision tomorrow.
     
  19. Joker

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    yeah..not holding my breath on that
     
  20. PatsWickedPissah

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    Disable Jersey

    Remember, some day the daily prediction of an 8th circuit decision WILL come true!
     
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