Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by JDSal45, Dec 5, 2009.
Most sportsbooks took the Pats game off the board tonight. No idea why.
J D Sal
They only do that when a big cog is questionable to them...like a QB.
Or maybe they just found out Charlie Weis is in Miami or something?
Either that, or maybe Belichick threatened to unleash his secret weapon on Las Vegas?
I don't think so: NFL Previews for the New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins at VegasInsider.com, The Leader in Sportsbook and Gaming Information - NFL Previews
Pats are -4.5 favs.
This isn't BS, it's absolutely true.
One of the webs largest sportsbooks, Sportsbook.com, which is advertised in USA Today, ESPN, etc just took it OFF TOTALLY.
This is not good news, IMO. Something big has got to be going down. There would be no good reason if it's not a major injury, etc. It's got to be something really big to be taken off the boards 12 hrs before.
That's just a preview of the matchup, I checked 3 sportsbooks, and all of them have removed the game.
I've never seen a game removed 12 hrs prior to kickoff---ever.
There was a thread regarding a Brady rumor.....
Not to be facetious, but let's say for the moment that "something big" is "going down." How do you know it won't hurt the Dolphins?
Heck, for all we know, it's just that the betting ended up too f***ed up and they were afraid of losing too much money on the game (as someone else noted, most of the money was coming in on the Pats, and yet they lowered the line during the week).
Trust me, its off the board you log on and try to bet it. That thing was written days ago likely and scheduled to run. The game just came off tonight.
J D Sal
Well, that's a decent question of course, but it's getting relatively closer to kickoff and no one has heard anything rumor-wise regarding any MIA players. The rumor(s) we have heard have all been regarding Brady. First it was the head, then somehow a finger appeared after a whole week of practice, etc.
For the game to be removed totally this close to kickoff, they obviously know something that they feel will change the outcome of the game in some way--I don't want to be negative or guess anymore than you, so I'll just stay positive.
I really doubt it would have anything to do with Porter, or any of our inactives/injuries reported today--mostly because that wouldn't change the outcome that dramatically. In other words, it may have gone up or down a 1/2 pt or even 1 pt, but nothing dramatic enough to totally stop all wagering.
It may just be that rumors are really starting to pick up steam, that's all I could think of?? Usually Vegas and the offshore accts don't mess around, maybe they're just being extra cautious until they finalize a rumor.
To answer your ??? about a MIA player, I couldn't think of too many besides Chad Henne who would/could take the game off the board totally. There wouldn't be any other player who would have such an inpact, not R.Williams, etc. (It'd change the line, but not be removed)
Same pretty much goes for our team, even if Moss or Welker were injured, I really think the line would simply move down a pt or so. The only player who could dramatically change the outcome of the game that much just happens to be the one whom we've been hearing strange rumors about recently. That's what kind of scares me. Hopefully, it's nothing, but whatever it is, you can 'bet' they have some kind of inside info--somewhere.
I explained the difference in money coming in on us with the pointspread vs. money coming in on them with the moneyline in the other thread.
The person who said there was "98%" money on NE is not even close to correct. As of right now it's 74% NE with the pointspread, but the public is backing MIA on the moneyline, which means the spread is low enough that there's a decent chance they could win the game outright (MIA).
The person who posted/started that other thread yesterday was kind of ignorant (certainly no offense at all), so to speak, and didn't understand what he was talking about at all. Money is coming in on both sides, just like any other game. The line has moved from NE -5 1/2 to NE -4 1/2, but that just means more are backing MIA.
In other words, even if a ton of money was coming in on one side, they would just adjust the spread and moneyline accordingly--they'd never take it off the board, especially the night before the game, it's their biggest time to make money. Hopefully, it's just acting cautious to a rumor.
I didn't quote the number since it seemed high, although the basic point seemed correct.
In any case, there are really only three possibilities (more than one of which may be true):
(1) Something major has happened in the last 24 hours or so. [If that's the case, I expect BB to launch a thorough investigation to figure out how the oddsmakers got their tips. . . .]
(2) BB was flat-out lying when he filled out his injury reports this week (remember, he said Brady was participating fully).
(3) The problem that led to the game being taken off the books is something unrelated to Brady.
I am sorry if I added negative speculation ct, that wasn't my intent, I do not mean to be negative.
I think it's just that there are many different sportsbooks/casios/offshores and they all have been quite different lately (past 2-3 days). They will not take any risk whatsoever, and are most likely just trying to gather, deny, or confirm info so they don't get 'beat' so to speak.
Since there have been some newer rumors regarding a major star player, they probably just want to be sure they have the correct info, and proper spread. Some of the books had it at -3, while others were up to -5 recently. Somebody knows something (not necessarily negative) that someone else does not know currently.
That's my best guess, and I think from our fans' POV everything will be just fine. My guess is that TB is just fine, regardless these new rumors are messing up their system. Regardless, it's been a very, very strange week in the form of sports betting regarding the NE/MIA game for whatever reason. My guess it's just the unsubstantiated rumors, nothing else.
As someone who doesn't gamble, it would seem that -5/-3 isn't really spectacular per se. Wouldn't lines tend towards an "equilibrium" value? [In other words, if the spreads were, say, Team X -9 v. Team X +1, wouldn't both lines get pushed towards something around -4?]
Sometimes it's as simple as a very large bet comes in on one side and looks suspicious.. so they take the game of the board. It happens in tennis fairly often. Usually with late breaking injury information they just reset the line to what they think it should be. But it is possible that there is some kind of rumor that is causing the odds makers to pull the game until it is cleared up anticipating a potential shift tomorrow.
Actually, the difference between -3 and -5, even -5 1/2 in one casino in Jamiaca, is pretty significant. Usually it'll be -3 in most casinos, maybe -3 1/2 in some--(for example) but it's always within a 1/2 or 1 pt of all of the other casinos.
What would happen if it was that different is that people would decide to go elsewhere depending on their wanted bet. If we as Pat fans, wanted to bet NE tomorrow we're looking for the lowest # possible. We'd just go to the casino with the lowest spread, and the others would not only lose business, they could actually get screwed like in the case of Dallas/Pgh SB a long time ago. Some casinos took bets starting at -5 and ending at -3, without gradually moving it slowly. The game ended up being a 4 pt difference and a lot of casinos lost a lot of money on both ends--the bettors who chose DAL, and the bettors who chose PGH. It's a very famous Vegas 'mistake' that they still talk about some 30+ years later.
Since their main objective is to make money on the 'juice' or the 5-10% it costs you to wager with them, they want to have as close to equal payouts as possible. They don't really care who wins, that's why they adjust the lines accordingly. They just want to pay both sides as equally as possible.
But, yeah, with some casinos giving -3 odds to NE and others giving -5 1/2 odds to NE, that shows that they're not all on the same page with their info right now. There's actually a tracker that'll show you all of the Vegas casino spreads in a row just like the NYSE or NASDAQ. For instance the Pgh game tomorrow pretty much is coming between -14 and -15, with a lot having it at -14 1/2--but for the most part they're all on the same page with their information/injuries, etc. If a few casinos started having it listed as Pgh -12 or something, then the other casinos would get nervous and possibly pull the game for a while until they researched it properly.
That's what I think happened here. Just unsubstantiated rumors regarding TB, so they became cautious/safe rather than sorry.
This is why I am glad I do not gamble, this is very confusing....
I don't mean to be negative, and as someone who is going to the game, I really don't want this to be true, but I've read speculation in a few different places, and in one place from someone who claims to have inside info, that Brady broke his middle finger on his throwing hand.
That would of course be a reason why the game cannot be bet now.
As someone who has been unhappy with Brian Hoyer as the sole back-up, the thought of the Pats putting an entire game in his hands makes me more than a little concerned.
Hopefully, it's all internet BS.
The rumors come and go, but I think it usually takes someone or a group of people placing huge bets on the under to actually spark a game's removal from the books. That's probably what happened here. Someone or a group of people thought it would be a super idea to place money on the Dolphins based on the rumors, and they shut it down, worried that the rumors might have substance if people are willing to bet large like that.
If true, look for the Belichick's counterintellience agents to start knocking heads.
If you go to a couple of the online sports books.. there are a couple off on different sites, most have the pats by +4 or 4.5.. some have it off.
Saw one where the Pitt vs. Oakland game is off also...
Glad I do not gamble...
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