Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Na_polian, Nov 19, 2007.
Unbelievable. This is a respectable 5-5 team that plays in the NFC east....usually considered a tough division.
LOLOLOLOLOLOL. We'll F-ing COVER it, too. Ha ha.
No kidding. It's not often you see a line over 20... I'm a little... shocked, I guess. Although, in a way I shouldn't be the way the Pats are playing...
WTF is the line against the Jets & Fins going to be, 30?
Wow. Whats the spread going to be like when we face the Fins and Jets, -40?
I read that the largest line in NFL history was the 49ers spotting the Charger 18.5 in the SuperBowl. If this is true and holds, this would be the biggest line. I think the Jets will have a higher line - because there will be no mercy on Mangini for what he did on week 1.
I read the largest was '76 Steelers -24 over expansion Bucs (Steelers covered 42-0).
Nonetheless, 23.5 in this day and age is insane...and probably still too small.
my thoughts exactly...
They have Super Bowl spreads and Pats are favored anywhere from 15 (Dallas) to 23 points.....Wow.....
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I say this all the time, but... point spreads are about money and have nothing to do with how good one team is vs. the other in real life.
Vegas has been taking a bath on the Patriots this season... they've covered 9 out of 10 games... people are loading up on them at this point... it's the only thing they can do to try and bring in some money on the other side.
Unfortunetely, if I'm an Eagles player, I take it as an extreme slight and it pisses me off and I come out on Sunday night, balls to the wall. Not that that will make any difference.
point spreads are an excellent measure of relative team quality.
if they weren't, the sports books wouldn't be able to make money. do you see why?
I understand what you mean and I agree to a degree. But the original purpose of a point spread is not to be a measuring tool for comparing football teams, it's only based on one primary reason... to bring in as close to equal money on both sides of the bet as possible, so the house doesn't lose in either scenario.
Vegas has officially thrown in the towel with the Pats.
sure...but IF the point spreads weren't generally set up accurately, then the bettor would be able to pick games correctly at a 60% (or more rate) which would be enough to overcome the juice and make the books lose money.
since sports books have existed for so long, we know that the bettor can not beat the books at a 60% rate, which means that the lines are set up very well with regard to relative team quality
it is possible to pick say 55% correct over the long run, but almost nobody has been documented to do better than this, and most people are right around 50%
Really? Nothing to do with how good one team is vs the other, huh? So you are saying there is a 50-50 chance that the Dolphins will be favored over the Pats next month?
Of course the Pats will be favored over the Dolphins, and you know why. Because the Pats are a better team than the Dolphins.
There is a definate relationship between how good a team is and how many points they are giving. The point spread may not indicate exact what anyone thinks the exactly score will be, but to say that the spreads have NOTHING to do with how good teams are vs their opponent is silly.
Just look at any odds sheet. Good teams give points and bad teams get points, and the better the team the more points they give, and the worse the team, the more points they get.
Whether I phrased it improperly or not, the point remains... the point spreads' purpose has to do with where the money is being bet, and is not to be taken as an accurate tool for comparing how good one team is vs. the other. Yes, it can be used a basic indicator for the relative quality of teams, but it's not chiefly derived on football statistics, it's derived more on money and betting statistics, how much/how often a team covers, etc.
Dallas v. New England (-15) O/U 60
Green Bay v. New England (-17) O/U 56
Giants v. New England (-20) O/U 58
Seattle v. New England (-21) O/U 57
Other(?) NFC team v. New England (-22) O/U 56
see my post above to explain why it's not just about "betting" stats, which are actually pretty unimportant
It's not always about bring in 50-50 money. Not every game. It's a myth.
Point spread is a statistical-inferred value that makes the market efficient, like the stock market. That's the reason they are in business. Any one claiming that they can beat the bookie is like the proverbial example of one in a million who happens to flip a coin 20 times in a row and always getting head (or tail). [see e. g. "A Random Walk Down The Wall Street"]
Therefore, people who set the point spread, for their survival, actually set them to be truly reflective of the strength of the teams involved. They may not always be perfect in any one game, but aggregately, they are quite right over a large population samples and a long period time.
Think of it like the stock value of a company. Everyone has a different opinion. But together, the market set its fair value.
A number of us develop models to predict games (just for fun) based on the Game Theory. Our model is conceptually similar to Accuscore, but does not require Monte Carlo sim like Accuscore. The output of the model, for each game, is a probability density function (pdf) of two scores, for example, P[Pats, Eagles]. From this, we have the pdf of Pats-Eagles. The prob. for Pats win is the integration of this function from 0 to positive infinitive. Conversely, the prob. for Eagles win is from -infinity to 0. The line where it is 50-50 on each side (median) is the point spread.
So far, ever since we started several yrs ago, we have been very impressed with the bookies. I don't know which model the bookies use, but we found them impossible to beat, in other words, we bet only when our point-spreads differ from their point-spread (either toward the favorite or the underdog) by more than 35-65 split. Over the years, we beat them by just a small margin that is probably not better than monkeys throwing darts.
Clearly, these guys know their business. That said, this yr Pats is truly a market anomaly. They have been loosing big until the Colts game. The line 23.5 is dead on, amazingly.
BTW, this is just one web site that report the betting percentage:
(I can't vow for their accuracy though)
Bottom line: point spread (to me) is truly a correct measure of relative strength of two teams in a game. The distribution has a large spread of confidence interval (variance - with its origin from Gaussian distribution) is an INVALID CONCEPT in this theory), that's why anything can happen and why they play the game. There is enough of fluky things happen to make the game sufficiently unpredictable and interesting. The more predictable an event is (that is the narrower the confidence interval of an outcome is) the less interesting it becomes. The Pats can lead the Eagles, say 28 pts, then a last second garbage hail Mary can make it 21 and the house would win. Remember in SB 39, the Pats led by 10 until the garbage TD.
As a side note: relative strength is NOT a scalar with transitive property like A>B and B>C means A>C. It is like paper, scissor, rock. That's why linear power ranking has little value in Game Theory prediction.
If everything keeps on keeping on we certainly will see some 30 point spreads this season and, gulp, 40 vs. the Jets is not out of the realm. Unfathomable.
The spread on the Jets - Pats game should be around 42!
I don't know, it seems to me that Vegas hits the spread right on the nose pretty often.
If that holds I believe it ties a record for the largest spread set by the 49ers in their prime
If the Pats continue to dominate there's no question they'll set a record
It's the only way the bookmakers are going to get action on Philly.
Is this college Football with USC going up against San Diego State or something?
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