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Pats best use for Cassel

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by SunnyDenmark, Feb 16, 2009.

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  1. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Cassels’ value to Pats (Best use of Matt Cassel)

    I , like many on this forum would love for some team (Lions, SF, etc) to fork over a 1st rounder plus another high (2 or 3rd round ) pick for Cassel. Nothing would please me more. HOWEVER, I am also considering what maybe the best possible use for Cassel (if I were PATS GM) -as follows:

    Following is my main criteria for my rational
    1) Job #1 for Pats is THIS year and is about WINS. As we saw in ’08, one more game won would have put them in the playoffs. This is not baseball - NFL has only 16 games so each and every one counts greatly. Pats are a team built to win NOW. Pats need to field the best team from week 1 -without screwing up long term TB’s health (see point 2 below).

    2) No sense rushing Tom back from his SEVERE injury. He is still young enough (32 in Aug) to be playing on a high level for next 4-6 years. 2 ligaments damaged in TBs’ knee is severe. Carson Palmer and Dante Culpepper were not the same their first year back following knee surgery. Screw it up again while not completely healed and it might kiss Toms career goodbye (I remember all to well Bobby Orr). PUP for TB seems like a good compromise and ease him back into 2009 season keeping him fresh for 2nd half of season and playoffs. Personal note: Having had ACL surgery myself – I was not the same even playing Frisbee or skiing the first year following surgery; let alone playing a competitive sport at NFL level.

    3) Cassels’ trade value should remain high EVEN after the ’09 draft. He is not a piece of rotting fruit with a self-life and franchaise QB’s don’t grow on trees every day (or at every draft). Ryan and Flacco are the vast exception – not the rule and it is not even worth debating.

    4) Fair to good chance O’Connell by week 1 (2009 season) not able to play at Cassels level of this past season. Cassel had 3 years to practice, study playbook and learn with Pats. O’Connel has had only 1.

    5) Pats can afford to keep Cassel 14 mill within their salary cap structure without wacking lots of veterans. Yes, that does mean little FA action this offseason. But that downside is negated by the upside of fielding the best QB available week 1 of 2009 season for priority #1 (point 1= WINS).

    6) This point is – granted, somewhat lacking in objectivity and only a ‘best guess’ observation: While this draft ’09 looks fairly deep first day at positions of need (CB, OLB , ILB, OT) – Pats do already have 3 first day picks and with Samuels compensatory likely a 3rd rounder –that would be 5 picks in first 3 rounds. How many rookies can realistically make the team ? Might be better to get more first day picks in 2010 draft where there could be a flood of juniors who want to avoid a rookie pay scale possibly instituted (earliest) in 2011.

    To spell out my idea according to the points above, I believe the Pats should keep Cassel for start of 2009 season, PUP Brady and activate him likely as late as possible (depending upon Pats game schedule). Trade Cassel just before the trade deadline in 2009 season which means would have to start O’Connell (or another FA Veteran pickup) for 1-2 games before Brady off of PUP list. Cassel would be traded to any number of DESPERATE teams who lost their starting QB to injury (or unhappy with current starter – see Derek Anderson ‘08) and don’t want to see their season go down in flames so early on. They would happily trade away high draft picks to keep playoff hopes alive and as it would be relatively early on in the season –that increases the potential pool of suitors (ie. Teams that had not already gone 3-4 games under .500).

    Finally, after Cassel is traded just before trade deadline ( early/midway through season), the salary cap is suddenly freed up and allows contract extension possibilities for Wilfork, Gostkowski, Mankins, etc. Meanwhile these potential FA players (Wilfork, etc) are already playing their butts off that season trying to look good as a potential FA. (unless uncapped year were they would have to acrew 6 years tenure). And to top it all off, as Cassel will only have played alittle less than half a season – he is only owed about half of the 14 mill franchaise tag with no signing bonuses to screw up future years cap numbers.

    Summary:

    Pros’: Get best starting QB week 1 (health wise); keep Brady from rushing back too quickly risking long term health of knee; still get good trade value for Cassel (for 2010 draft); pay only about ½ of franchaise tag salary (players’ salary is pro-rated for each week of season); Brady available for late season push and playoffs.

    Cons: contract extensions would have to be done during the 2009 season after Cassel trade; would have to start O’Connel or FA veteran 1-2 games as2009 in-season trade deadline is a couple of weeks before players can come back from PUP list.

    Thoughts, comments and constructive criticisms are welcome. Flames will not be replied to.

    Cheers from snowy Denmark – land of Lego and Hans Christian Andersen.
  2. fair catch fryar

    fair catch fryar Rookie

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    HOWEVER, I am also considering what maybe the best possible use for Cassel (if I were PATS GM) -as follows:


    Whatever Bill does....is what I think is best. Unlike you apparently,:rolleyes: I don't have any insight to what Brady's status is and will be, so I'll trust in Bill thank you very much.
  3. PatsAttack

    PatsAttack Rookie

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    To unrealistic. They are not going to change their entire system on offense midway through the season. I agree with you to a point about Cassel possibly being the best option in week 1 with brady coming back.

    I also think that Brady will be back quicker than you suspect, so i could see Gutz or OC could start in the first couple weeks if he really isnt ready.

    Trade Cassel and build a defense that can absolutly carry them the first couple of weeks, then with a healthy brady and new contracts for 2009 free agents they would be set for the playoff push.

    That frees up a ton of money this offseason and lets the needs of patriots be addressed on defense.
  4. Mike the Brit

    Mike the Brit Minuteman Target PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Major negative: trade value for a quarterback is at its lowest at that stage. Any team that needs a QB wants him during the off-season to work in camp and getting to know the offense. By the time the season has started, teams have made their choices.
  5. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Rookie

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    I think you have a lucid, well though out, and a very cogent arguement. But you do not have to PUP Brady. Just not play him until he is fully ready. On PUP, he is not allowed to practice, whereas on non PUP, as a member of the 53, he can practice with the Team and get ready to play. Early on, he might not even be on the active 47, for the first several weeks, as is necessary, and determined by Belichick weekly.

    :D;)
  6. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Interesting idea....sounds rational as when on the PUP - you have to pay TBs' salary anyway - so I see your logic in not putting him on the PUP, just maybe gameday inactive until ready to play.
  7. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Trade value is not only based on future need (like now before FA / draft) but could actually increase for some teams if they don't get the FA or draft QB they were targeting. Or increase when during the season a starting QB gets injured and your choices for backup are Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Patrick Ramsey, JP Loseman, etc. On the otherside is that during the season many teams wont have much cap space left if they are smart.
  8. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Never claimed I had a crystal ball, (just some lucky dice hanging from rear view mirror). But not even BB, Tom Brady or even the teams physicians can at this time now tell how his knee will respond to drills in training camp come end of July. No one knows until then.....so by keeping Cassel and easing Tom back in during the season - it will give more time for the knee to heal completely and yet still (by keeping Cassel) give Pats best chance to win week 1.

    I don't want to jepordize TB's long term health for a few early season games in 2009 (C. Palmer and D. Culpepper were not good first half season after surgery).
  9. BelizePats

    BelizePats Rookie

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    I like the thought that went into this post. But I have major disagreements with it.
    I am of the opinion that keeping Cassel on team in 2009 will hurt the team from a longer term point of view. Having close to 30 mil tied up in one position is just not practical regardless of how much the 2009 cap increases. I want the Pats to win now but not at the expense of 2010 and 2011. BB has always been unwilling to mortgage the future for immediate success if the price paid potentially jeopardizes long term plans.
    Cassel's value is at or near its peak right now. The only way it goes higher is if he makes it to the Superbowl in 2009.
    He has to be traded in order to maximize this current value. There is no way he was franchised with the expectations that he would be on the team at any point during the 2009 season (this is just my opinion as I have no way of knowing this as fact) If Brady is not ready (and I'd be shocked if he wasn't) then hello KO or MG until he is ready. This defense needs to be improved in 2009 and 2010, and trading Cassel is how this happens over the next 16 months.
    I'm OK with 2010 picks so long as Cassel is traded before the season. Not doing so would be failing to take advantage of Cassel's current value. And franchising him was doing precisely this. Taking advantage of his current value.
    Great post dude. It got me thinking.
    Respects,

    Rich
  10. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sunny you did very good job in stating your case. However I will disagree.

    1. From Miguels pages
    So I have the Pats under their adjusted cap by about $3.9 million.

    That is not enough space to field a full roster. Sure they can redo contract but they need much more cap space than that. They do need to make one impact FA signing on D this year. That could be a vet CB.

    2. This is one of the worse years for QB's in the draft in a long time. Matts value will never be higher.

    3. The more and higher draft picks you have, the more you can do with trades for players, picks this year, or stockpile them for next year.

    So I think that Matt will be traded and I think a deal has already been agreed.
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2009
  11. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Hey Rich, Are you really in Belize? I always have wanted to go as I am a diver. Not much diving in Denmark - need dry suits and not much life except for herring!

    Anyway, I agree that if the trade value is 'right' for BB during these next many weeks, -he will take the offer and run with the picks (to the draft). But if for whatever reason he gets no resonable offers , then BB will not just take -say a 3rd rounder - but will keep Cassel as there is logic in keeping him as I thought about in my post.

    I actually am hoping he will get a great trade offer (1st and a 2nd or conditional 3rd) but then wondering how many picks can we use in this 2009 draft (will probably have 5 in first three rounds already w/Samuels comp) - how many rookies can make this team? Next year with alot of our VETs becoming possible FA's - we may have many more holes to fill in 2010 draft.

    Cheers :)
  12. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Hi P.N.M, - its an honor having a MOD reply. I just need one more MOD reply then I will have the MOD SQUAD after me! (for those born b-4 1970's).

    Anyway,
    1) the cap would be a challenge this offseason. That is for sure! Can't resign several of our FA's but I would only worry about Sanders leaving - (not Jordan, or others so much). I would like a few new FA's to compete - as you said a CB would be nice. But havent done too well with them Vet CB's in the past (Starks, O'Neill, F. Bryant, etc). I am hoping for a first day CB in the draft - as I know others are too. I would rather see a FA for a Safety or LB -but what do I know. I am sitting 6000 miles away in Legoland!

    2) Amen! Definately a good year to shop a QB. Hopefully Warner and / or Collins will re-sign with old teams making supply of QB's even worse!

    3) True about draft picks and can usually trade picks (except comp picks) to next year. Good positive about Belichicks expanding coaching tree is that probably easier to trade picks in this draft with McDaniels in DEN and Pioli in KC. (of course they probably want same players Pats will target - it is not a perfect world.)
  13. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Thanks for the feedback. Not sure I follow about 'change their entire system on offense" - if anything bringing Brady back would allow more flexability -opening up the entire playbook.

    Brady is already swinging the golf club. But (having had knee surgery) that is serious stuff and you don't want risking the HOF career for a few early season games. Yet still want best chance of winning - by having Cassel over O'connel or Gutz. Having seen Cassel start slowly last season (with 3 years in the NFL), I cringe at the thoughts of O'Connel or Gutz being our opening day starter. Pats have a tough schedule in 2009.

    I very much agree about the Pats defense needing a serious upgrade. However, BB defensive scheme is (supposidly) very complex and so any draft picks in April or to some extent FA's probably would not have as huge effect first month of the season (as having a competent starting QB like Cassel over Gutz / O'connel). Most of the Pats rookies during BB reign of terror have been slowly worked into the mix. Mayo , Seymore, etc. are the exceptions.

    Well it is well past midnight here so I am off to bed. Thanks for your input.
  14. fair catch fryar

    fair catch fryar Rookie

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    It's a good point, but I think Tom Brady has a pretty good idea of where he'll be by week 1 and with an injury like that it can be jeopardizing whether your in week 1 or week 16. I think they miove Cassel because of his value at the right time and they bring in a vet as insurance in case O'Connell isn't ready.

    My first response is simply stating that I believe the Pats FO has a plan B, plan C and so forth because they actually know what's going on contrary to what all the mediots would have us believe.
  15. Mike the Brit

    Mike the Brit Minuteman Target PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think you are quite wrong.

    Any team that is half-way rationally run (that means all of them except, possibly, the Raiders) wants to have its starting quarterback signed and taking reps in training camp. Of course, if your quarterback goes down, you may have to juggle things, but, if the victim is a highly-paid starter like Eli or Ben, you don't blow a first-round pick on a one-year replacement.

    I guess we'll just have to disagree ...
  16. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    PALMER:
    pre-injury - 2005: 3836 yds, 32 TD, 93.9 rating
    post-injury - 2006: 4035 yds, 28 TD, 86.7 rating

    CULPEPPER:
    pre-injury - 2005: (7 games) 1564 yds, 6 TD, 72.0 rating
    post-injury - 2006: (4 games) 929 yds, 2 TD, 77.0 rating

    MCNABB:
    pre-injury - 2006 (10 games): 2647 yds, 18 TD, 95.5 rating
    post-injury - 2007 (14 games): 3324 yds, 19 TD, 89.9 rating

    RIVERS:
    pre-injury - 2007: 3152 yds, 21 TD, 82.4 rating
    post-injury - 2008: 4009 yds, 34 TD, 105.5 rating
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2009
  17. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Rookie

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    Trade Cassel. Get the draft picks. Stock the defense with good talent at decent price. Get rid of Cassel's large cap number and sign a few free agents. Get back to defense being the strength of this team and the offense will be good. C'mon we have Moss, Welker, a good O-line and good RB's.

    We need talent on defense and I'd rather have it this year versus next.
  18. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    ok...but to assess this fairly, you'd have to look at the winning potential of this year's team comparing:

    A. Cassel as QB insurance policy
    vs.
    B. $14.6 million in other free agents

    IOW, you could practically choose any other two FAs on the market instead of Cassel.
  19. BelizePats

    BelizePats Rookie

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    Yo Sunny D,

    I am actually in Toronto until Thursday when I head back down south to Havana. I lived in Belize for a decade (great diving) and even better fishing (I own a fishing company that send guests all over the world to fish) I moved from Belize to Cuba 2 years ago run run my business there and now I rotate between Belize,Toronto and Havana. If you ever want to dive Belize let me know and I will have my office manager in Belize set you up. no problem.
    As to this thread, I would also argue that the 14.6 would be far better spent on redoing Big Vince and a couple of our other soon to be 9 end of the 2009 season) free agents, rather than an as an insurance policy for TB. Our D needs to get better (younger and faster) over the next 2 drafts and trading Cassel is an excellent way to do this, whatever we end up getting for him.
    Respcts,

    Rich
  20. Ice Cold Bruschi

    Ice Cold Bruschi Rookie

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    In regards to putting brady on the p.u.p. list, what happens if Cassel is 4-2,5-1, or god willing 6-0? Theres no longer the speculation of a qb controversy its a fully blown one and you have to keep Tom on the bench, what then?
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