Pats are 9 to 1 to win Super Bowl XL

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by SoCal Bong, Jan 3, 2006.

  1. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    I already had a good chunk down from the preseason but the odds are actually higher now (+900) so I'm in for more.

    Vegas odds are almost surely lower but if you have an offshore account I think there is some value here though I have an obvious bias. If Pats come out with a light injury report tomorrow look for those odds to drop so I recommend getting it in today.

    Also +610 to win the AFC which also is appealing.

    Giving 8 points to Jacksonville this Saturday. Over/under total is only 37
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    The odds of winning 4 50-50 games (I assume we'd be favored this week and in the SB but underdogs in the other two unless we get to host Pittsburgh) is 16-1 so while I'm as confident as the next guy, those aren't odds I'd be putting my money on.
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2006
  3. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Pro Bowl Player

    This really means nothing.

    I find it helpful to keep in mind that the odds aren't truly designed to reflect who has the best chance to win any given game or series

    They are used to help the "House" ensure that an equal number of people bet on all possible outcomes - its slightly more complicated when considering the odds off all 12 teams in the playoffs, but easilly illustrated on a game by game basis

    For example the Jags are 8 point underdogs right now

    That number is specifically crafted to ensure that equal numbers of people bet on the Patriots and Jaguars

    If equal numbers bet on both teams, the "House" always wins.

    If too many people bet on one side, the House might lose... and the House doesn't like to lose.

    That's why you see the odds change over time - it doesn't reflect a reassessment of who stands a better shot at winning - it only reflects where people are placing their betting dollar.
  4. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Didn't mean to imply that the odds or spread meant anything; just trying to make a few bucks.
  5. groundgame

    groundgame Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Pats 6:1 Favorites

    Tuesday's Boston Globe had the Vegas SB odds: 1. Indy (even); 2. Seattle (4:1); T3 Denver and New England (both 6:1).
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2006
  6. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member Supporter

    #75 Jersey

    The only time I gamble is when I go to the Chinese buffet.
  7. Fanfrom1960

    Fanfrom1960 In the Starting Line-Up

    Indy (even)! Holy crap. If I were a betting man...
  8. Mike the Brit

    Mike the Brit Minuteman Target Supporter

    Disable Jersey

  9. tombonneau

    tombonneau In the Starting Line-Up

    Sometime mid-season, after maybe the KC loss even dunno, can't remember when, but I saw odds at 22-1 for the Pats and would have jumped all over it. They were basically a lock to make the playoffs at that point with the toughest part of their sked over with.

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