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Pats 7 Round Mock with Commentary

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Metaphors, Mar 19, 2010.

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  1. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Goals
    1) Get faster and more aggressive on defense (particularly against the pass)
    2) Get Brady targets in the passing game that get open quickly
    3) Depth at positions that will transition in 2011

    Plan
    1) DE, OLB and TE need starter-quality players out of this draft. Don't wait too long.
    2) WR, ILB and CB need contingencies in case youngsters don't pan out
    3) Same for RB in case oldsters regress
    4) More OL talent in the pipeline (particularly interior) is a good thing
    5) Look for a developmental QB late
    6) No S or NT picks unless value is overwhelming
    7) Get a P

    Picks (trades probably needed but not specifically spelled out)
    - Jared Odrick, DE Penn St. (6'5", 306)

    Eventual starting DE in the base 3-4. After developing his pass rush moves, has the potential to slide inside in the nickel. His draft floor is Indy at #31 so have to get him first.

    - Jerry Hughes, OLB TCU (6'2", 257)

    Starts out as a specialist on passing downs. Generally don't like changing my mind based on the combine, but Hughes showed plus skills dropping into coverage. That flexibility is key. Has good functional strength but probably don't want him too much in the base 3-4 initially, but over time he could be an every-down guy. Will likely need to move up a bit to get him.

    - Koa Misi, LB Utah (6'2", 244)

    Can play all over the field and do everything at a relatively high level (though not a stud at anything in particular). Adding Hughes and Misi gives Belichick the numbers to run the "wandering LB" formation on 3rd downs that he showed at the end of 2009. Misi in particular can play outside or inside effectively which adds to the disguise and gives the QB more to think about.

    - Dennis Pitta, TE BYU (6'4", 245)

    The "speed" TEs will go first, but the Pats don't need another guy like Watson. Pitta isn't a burner but knows how to get separation quickly and has excellent hands, particularly on the move. He won't get many of those 30 yard seam passes, but he will become a go-to guy on 3rd down and in the red zone. The Misi and Pitta picks are a little early so some trade-downs could be had.

    - Kevin Thomas, CB USC (6'1", 185)

    Very good size/speed ratio and was an aggressive defender particularly in the middle of the field. Dropped in the draft because the "stink" from the USC season stuck to him. Can immediately contribute in the slot and in the red zone. Pretty much ensures that at the end of camp, one of Wheatley/Wilhite will get voted off the island...which should light a serious fire under Wheatley.

    - James Starks, RB Buffalo (6'2", 218)

    Assuming his shoulder checks out, he is an interesting candidate for the RB depth chart. Not a speed guy (though he thinks he can be) and was never super-productive running the ball...but he has excellent receiving skills and has the size and recognition to develop into an effective pass protector. Faulk is almost certainly in his last year and Pats have kicked the tires on Starks so they are interested to some degree.

    - Seyi Ajirotutu, WR Fresno St. (6'3", 204)

    Doesn't stand out except on the football field. He is a David Givens type and would fit naturally into a #4 role and red zone specialist. Opened some eyes at the Shrine Game but lost that momentum since he didn't test well at the combine.

    - Nate Byham, TE Pittsburgh (6'4", 268)

    A mini-tackle but has reliable hands if the defense forgets about him. Should be effective in 2 TE sets and at the goal line.

    - Matt Dodge, P East Carolina (6'2", 223)

    He is a punter so by definition he is an upgrade.

    - Joe Hawley, G/C UNLV (6'3", 297)

    A project for Dante to mold. Also fits the "I live on a mountain and hunt for my food" look that the Pats lineman occasionally sport.
    [​IMG]

    - Tim Hiller, QB WMU (6'4", 230)

    Fits the Pats prototype for the position, but has been in a free-fall since his junior year. Was on a nice career arc but graduation of his skill position teammates seems to have destroyed his confidence. Developed some bad habits that scouts have reported as a "weak arm". He needs to be coached up and get his confidence back, but look at his first 3 years in college and you see a kid that was on target for something special.

    Results
    1) Get faster and more aggressive on defense (particularly against the pass)

    Check. Got pass rush and cover skills. Odrick isn't a Seymour replacement but aren't going to get that this year without getting into the top 3. Misi can also help inside without taking snaps away from McKenzie and Guyton. Belichick would have the pieces to be more aggressive without fundamentally changing the scheme.

    2) Get Brady targets in the passing game that get open quickly

    Pitta fits the bill here. Didn't get a top WR but Ajirotutu can help as a situational guy. Still counting on Tate and Edelman to hold down the fort and Welker to be back for the stretch run...which is risky.

    3) Depth at positions that will transition in 2011

    Didn't do much at WR, but the 2011 draft should be able to yield a Moss replacement. Got the next-gen Faulk and some more pipeline talent for the interior OL.

    So lots of talent at positions of need and builds good depth. Didn't want to invest much in another young WR with Edelman/Tate already onboard and a top WR class in 2011. However, the pass defense should be improved enough to take significant pressure off Brady. Did get Brady a couple of new toys that will help turn short FG's into TD's. Addressed the 2009 pain points without upsetting the apple cart with bad character or blocking youngsters already on the roster. One way to skin a cat but I think it demonstrates this draft is a good one to build from.
  2. BillBelichickFan79

    BillBelichickFan79 Rookie

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    Great effort, I like how you listed the goals and such. I like the Pitta pick at TE and I love the Kevin Thomas pick at CB. I think he could be a good add later in the draft.

    As a project QB, I actually like Jarrett Brown, but I feel he will go too early for us to have a look at.
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2010
  3. SunnyDenmark

    SunnyDenmark Rookie

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    Good summary of objectives, great logicical ordering of picks and description on how they meet Pats needs, excellent all-around effort.

    If we got even 80% of that haul, I would be poping the champagne. The only name I could envision being difficult to get would be Hughes (who is my binky). I believe he will go top of round 2. Bill has traded up, down and all-around in 2nd round. BUT this year I believe it will require alot of ammo to move into top of 2nd due to:
    A) abundance of 1st round talent overflowing into top 5-10 picks of 2nd round.
    B) day betweens rounds 1 & 2 will give 31 other GM's / FO / HC time to re-plan strategy and make prospective calls on possible trade scenarios. This (and point A) will give lots of competition for those top of round 2 picks.

    In short, I think it will require alot to move up to snag Hughes. But I would really think NEP should do it to get a top tier OLB (but not Dunlop).

    The rest of the draft hopefully will play out as you posted. Only thing is about those 4 possible 7th round comp picks - another TC of soon to be forgotton cannon fodder. Which is why I would think quite likely Pats will trade their own (tradeable) 7th and maybe 6th to move up sometime (hopefully in 2nd). Thought that will only 'bump' you up a few spots - in front of Miami would be worth it as they likely also needing 3-4 OLB with Porter gone and Taylor on last legs.
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2010
  4. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Totally agree with everything you said. Almost took Hughes off my list because of those exact points, but I couldn't bring myself to do it. Hughes looked that good in his combine drills. My hope is that the Pats can trade down a little on #22, #47 and/or #53, end up with a very early 2nd and still get Odrick/Misi/Pitta. Certainly possible and also possible that Hughes could slide more than we anticipate. I agree that it is worth giving up some later picks if the results are an Odrick/Hughes combination lining up for the Pats in 2010.
  5. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    Pretty good but can't see a CB in the second when we need a WR, and there are plenty good ones to be had.
  6. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Thomas would be acquired after the top 4 picks, about the 4th round or so. I didn't put the rounds/pick numbers because the Pats almost certainly will move around so they are pretty meaningless.

    As I mentioned, WR is the biggest question mark in my scenario. If Belichick thinks Tate isn't ready for the start of 2010 or Welker won't be ready by the end of 2010, then I would rework my scenario to get a WR before the 3rd day.
  7. Feep50

    Feep50 Rookie

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    Fine effort and analysis........ Maybe the Patriots FO can use you.

    In all seriousness though, well thought out draft and commentary, I could definitely live happy till Sept with this draft!
  8. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #91 Jersey

    Great work........
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2010
  9. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    I love the format, stating your guiding principles first. I'd love to see that become a standard feature for mocks here, so that we can tease out whether we're (dis)agreeing on players or priorities!

    I like a lot of what you've done, two things that would give me pause:

    - Are Hughes and Misi too much of the same, both weak-side types? I'd love to see 2 OLB prospects, but I lean toward combos with complementary strengths.

    - Did you notice a theme developing with your offensive skill players? "He's not fast, but..." I worry about an overall lack of speed becoming a problem on the offense if we draft 4 more without a single breakaway threat. Maybe that's a function of how you framed your offensive goals?
  10. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    You are actually picking up on my LB theme. I'm not thinking "strong vs. weak"...I'm thinking "left vs. right". And even then, would like to see the LBs do more motion, disguise, twists, switches, etc. Rather than just line up in your "role" and go...line up with the potential to play any number of positions/roles and make the QB figure it out.

    Something like Warren, Wilfork, Odrick, TBC, Mayo, McKenzie, Ninkovich as the base 3-4. When faced with key 3rd down passing situations (and lets face it, hasn't that been the Pats downfall more often than not recently?), deploy a lineup of Mayo, Guyton, Misi, Hughes, TBC, Chung (pseudo-LB) along with a nickel backfield. Show 7 at the line (including an inside CB), all of them showing blitz or moving laterally, and bring 4-5 at the snap. The QB can't possibly diagnose this pre-snap and the inside hot reads may or may not be covered immediately. That extra second of indecision gives the rush time to get close and force a bad throw.

    Totally fair and not my general inclination. The total lack of interest in Watson and the reasonable interest in Boldin (not a speed guy) leads me to believe the Pats are looking for the ability to get open quickly...not so much the ability to get 30 yards downfield quickly. Brady generally didn't have a lot of trouble moving the ball, but when the field compressed he really struggled to find a non-Welker option. Tate is plenty fast and wouldn't mind seeing a vet like Curtis signed. Otherwise would like to see Brady unload more after 3 steps to a variety of players (WR, TE and RB).
  11. ayjackson

    ayjackson Rookie

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    Good effort and well laid out. I would be fairly excited about that draft. My only comment is that an "end of round 4" cornerback in this draft isn't going to beat out wheatley/willhite and may not beat out the uconn kid. I would prefer we invested the pick in a WR - not enough for the skill positions on offense in this draft.
  12. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    You did a lot of work and put some thought into this. Agree with some, don't on others but Bravo, Cousin. I notice you paid attention to some the Pats FO has met.
    DW Toys
  13. PatsCanDoIt

    PatsCanDoIt Rookie

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    I like your mock as a whole. James Starks fits the prototype for a NEP running back. He is very similar to Maroney as an athlete and some sources say he is a good zone/cut-back type runner as well. The only significant difference is Starks height.
  14. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    Interesting, thanks! I really like both Misi and Hughes, but Hughes strikes me as too much of a situational player long-term in the Pats scheme, given how high he'd have to be drafted. But it's great to see where your thinking's going.

    BTW, kudos for including a punter! It's getting to be a pet peeve of mine, seeing lots of 7-round Pats projections with no P.
  15. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    I see Hughes as a situational guy in year 1, but that situation for the Pats is a key one. I think he has the potential to be an every-down guy since he has the size (same as TBC and Ninkovich) and functional strength to pull it off. If the Pats see him as a long-term situational player, I agree that an early 2nd is a hefty price in a deep draft.
  16. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    I'm not looking at Starks in a Maroney role. Check out the stats below:

    YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD
    2006 175 704 4.0 54 6 34 226 6.6 30 0
    2007 251 1103 4.4 92 12 41 311 7.6 74 2
    2008 272 1333 4.9 66 16 52 361 6.9 65 1

    That is a ton of catches for a college RB. The averages are nothing special, but the team around him was generally poor (not bad in 2008). Remember Boldin was a former RB and ran around a 4.7 at the combine. Starks has a similar build and runs about a 4.5. So I could see the Pats grooming Starks for a Faulk-like role. If he happens to shine as a primary RB as well, that is a bonus.
  17. Christopher Patriot

    Christopher Patriot Rookie

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    Patriots draft
    Derrick Morgan
    Jerry Hughes
    Koa missi
    Jason Worilds
    Ben Tate
    Marc Easley
    Punter
    This would be sick defense fixed for next decade

    Unrealistic but who here wouldn't be happy with this haul?
  18. Defsoul

    Defsoul Rookie

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    Although Misi is considered undersized for an every-down defensive end, the scouting reports say that he is strong enough to set the edge as a linebacker. He lost almost 20 pounds prior to the Senior Bowl and the combine, so he would be able to add some weight if needed.
  19. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    He was 244 at the Senior Bowl and up to 251 at the Combine with the special diet and conditioning he was getting, I'd say he can easily carry the 260 he did in college with Pro conditioning and diet programs. Like Vrabel he used to slide inside and take DL reps in certain defensive packages, so he's already got a base in hand fighting/leverage that guys like Mayo and Guyton had to acquire.
  20. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    Ummm....OLBs with your first four picks? It would be a sick defense, but probably not the way you mean it.


    Great job on the original, Metaphors.
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