Pats #1 seed in AFC right now

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Re: First Round, Playoffs?

So I know its a tad early but seeing that we are entering the last portion of the season with 4 games left, the playoff picture is beggining to form.

If we get the 1st seed, which I'm sure we will, what team do you think we'd be playing first? I think it'll be either Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

Do we like our chances against these teams?

Thoughts?

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Re: First Round, Playoffs?

If Baltimore and Pittsburgh are indeed the toughest matchups for the Patriots (probably a reasonable thought) it may be best to have the #2 seed (or #3). This is the scanario Deus was describing.

hypothetical:
#1 Ravens
#2 Patriots
#3 Texans
#4 Broncos / Raiders
#5 Steelers (best wild card)
#6 worst wild card, Bengals, Jets, Broncos. Raiders?

wildcard weekend:
#3 beats #6
#5 beats #4

then in the division round:
#1 Ravens play #5 Steelers
#2 Patriots play #3 Texans


In that scenario, we avoid either the Ravens or Steelers until the AFC championship game, which would follow a week in which they beat each other up.

 

[patsinthesnow]

This is the golden scenario:

#1 Steelers
#2 Patriots
#3 Texans
#4 Broncos
#5 Ravens
#6 Jets

Texans beat Jets, Broncos beat Ravens.

Broncos beat Steelers, Pats beat Texans.

Broncos @ Pats AFCCG

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

This is the golden scenario:

#1 Steelers
#2 Patriots
#3 Texans
#4 Broncos
#5 Ravens
#6 Jets

Texans beat Jets, Broncos beat Ravens.

Broncos beat Steelers, Pats beat Texans.

Broncos @ Pats AFCCG

If the Broncos were to beat the Ravens, then the Steelers, and then the Patriots, and then (presumably) the Packers, I will start sending 10% of all my income to Tim Tebow, because he would clearly be Lord.

Heck, if they did the first two things he might be in the running.

 

[PatriotFan77]

If the Broncos were to beat the Ravens, then the Steelers, and then the Patriots, and then (presumably) the Packers, I will start sending 10% of all my income to Tim Tebow, because he would clearly be Lord.

Heck, if they did the first two things he might be in the running.

made me laugh

 

[JJDChE]

Flacco could make it,The Ravens defense took Trent Dilfer into a Super Bowl,Why not Flacco?

A great Defense can overshadow an average QB

That 2000 Ravens defense wasn't great, it was all-time freaking mega-great. They didn't even need a QB. They literally could have run the ball every down and won (don't forget, that team had Jamal Lewis AND Priest Holmes).

This year's Ravens defense, while very good, has already allowed almost 30 points more than the 2000 defense did the ENTIRE YEAR. The 2000 Ravens played four games in the playoffs and allowed 23 points. Yes, 23 points allowed in the entire playoffs. In 20 games that season they only allowed more than 10 points 5 times. They forced 49 turnovers in the regular season and 12 in the playoffs.

 

[BlueThunder]

If the Broncos were to beat the Ravens, then the Steelers, and then the Patriots, and then (presumably) the Packers, I will start sending 10% of all my income to Tim Tebow, because he would clearly be Lord.

Tim Tithe ?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Wait..so we are #1..i thought Houston was #1..what changed?

 

[PatsGirl2011]

Re: First Round, Playoffs?

This Baltimore D is not nearly as good as the 2000 D. That D was straight nasty. There are plays to be made against that defense..

 

[ausbacker]

Re: First Round, Playoffs?

This Baltimore D is not nearly as good as the 2000 D. That D was straight nasty. There are plays to be made against that defense..

This Baltimore D is nowhere near as good as the media is making it out to be. They're still very good but they're not otherworldly good.

 

[NinjaZX6R]

Wait..so we are #1..i thought Houston was #1..what changed?

We played and won vs a conference opp. They beat a non conference opp.

 

[Gumby]

Wait..so we are #1..i thought Houston was #1..what changed?

all depends on if you assume 3 way versus 2 way tie at the end.

if you wish away houston winning out; the best Pats can do is 2nd place.

If it is a 3-way tie; it all depends on SOV. (how many points you score). Currently 1. Hou 2. Pats 3. Balt

 

[Deus Irae]

Here's a bit of news that could at least potentially impact the AFC race(s):

The Texans are going to sign quarterback Jeff Garcia and punter Matt Turk.

Ultimate Texans » Texans to sign Garcia, Turk

 

[Metaphors]

all depends on if you assume 3 way versus 2 way tie at the end.

if you wish away houston winning out; the best Pats can do is 2nd place.

If it is a 3-way tie; it all depends on SOV. (how many points you score). Currently 1. Hou 2. Pats 3. Balt

- SOV is strength of victory which is different from points scored
- Unless Indy and JAX suddenly win a bunch of games, the SOV standings are currently the opposite and likely to remain that way...1. BAL 2. Pats 3. Hou
- It is unlikely that the Pats will win any kind of tiebreaker over BAL and they lose head-2-head against PIT. It is equally unlikely that the Texans win a tiebreaker vs. the Pats.

This likely puts the Pats at #2 pending any major upsets. Regardless of #1 or #2 seeding, I'm just hoping that it is settled before the Buffalo game so injured/overworked vets like Brady, Welker and Wilfork can get 2 full weeks of rest and recovery.

 

[silenthuntr7]

Am I the only one that wants a #2 seed more than a #1 seed?

IF we get a #1 seed, we'd be likely playing Pitt/Bal at home, then the other of Pitt/Bal at home.

IF we get a #2 seed, we'd be likely playing Houston at home, then either Pitt/Bal on the road.

Looking at road team records in the last decade of playoffs...I'd rather have the second scenario.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Looking at road team records in the last decade of playoffs...I'd rather have the second scenario.

Not with this D..this D needs to play at home to go the the SB..no number #1 seed...i don't see a SB appearance

 

[Metaphors]

Not with this D..this D needs to play at home to go the the SB..no number #1 seed...i don't see a SB appearance

I'm inclined to agree that the SB is unlikely as a #3 or #4 seed...more because of the lack of an off-week. But how about this scenario?

- Seeding falls #1 BAL, #2 NE, #3 HOU, #4 DEN, #5 PIT
- HOU enters week 17 locked into the #3 seed
- HOU hosts TEN in week 17 and (faced with the prospect of a WC rematch the next week) sits starters and throws out a vanilla gameplan...essentially letting TEN win to earn the #6 seed
- HOU and PIT win the WC round, setting up HOU@NE and PIT@BAL in the division round
- The Pats dispatch the Texans and the Steelers finally break through against the Ravens
- The Steelers head to the Razor for their 5th roadie (including every time zone) in 6 weeks. Meanwhile the Pats would have been at home for 34 straight days with an off week and a week 17 scrimmage in the middle of that span. A gassed Steeler squad, battered and bruised from the Ravens game, can't replicate their earlier effort against the Pats.

That looks like an ideal scenario for the Pats and seems reasonably likely from where things stand today.

 

[carolinatony]

We should get a 1st round bye but; the question is
Will we win a playoff game with this defense and No real running game to count on if we need it?

 

[MP-Logick]

Am I the only one that wants a #2 seed more than a #1 seed?

IF we get a #1 seed, we'd be likely playing Pitt/Bal at home, then the other of Pitt/Bal at home.

IF we get a #2 seed, we'd be likely playing Houston at home, then either Pitt/Bal on the road.

Looking at road team records in the last decade of playoffs...I'd rather have the second scenario.

Whatever route prevents us from having to go into Baltimore and win, that's the route I want. So I want the #1 seed. The Ravens are a flat-out different team on the road, and they are nearly as good as us at home.

We can beat any team in the AFC at home. Let's get HFA and be done with it.

 

[carolinatony]

We can beat any team in the AFC at home. Let's get HFA and be done with it.


I am as big a Pats fan as anyone but after the last few years I have to disagree with you on this.