Patriots wild card opponent will be:

[Patspsycho]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Didn't quite see the Colts game either. The Bengals may tank the game, so in effect the Jests won't beat them but the Jest will win.

I think that at this point, the league mentality is that it is bad karma to tank a game near the end of the season. You want to keep any kind of momentum going.

 

[Nordberg]

After thinking about the matchups for this weekend I have it as follows:

pitt vs. miami = pitt
new vs hou = hou
jack vs cleveland = jac
balt vs oak = bal
kc vs den = den
cin vs jets = jets

Looks to me like we will see Denver according to the first page breakdown.

See you soon Josh

 

[upstater1]

After thinking about the matchups for this weekend I have it as follows:

pitt vs. miami = pitt
new vs hou = hou
jack vs cleveland = jac
balt vs oak = bal
kc vs den = den
cin vs jets = jets

Looks to me like we will see Denver according to the first page breakdown.

See you soon Josh

According to those games, it would be Pats-Balt.

 

[efeene]

Nordberg if you have both Baltimore and the Jets winning, as you do in your predictions, then we see Baltimore not Denver. Unfortunately as I would love to see Denver.

 

[D-Money]

I prefer the ravens.U can throw at their secondary.

 

[Joker]

who cares..we're gonna roll...I feel it in my toes

 

[Nordberg]

Nordberg if you have both Baltimore and the Jets winning, as you do in your predictions, then we see Baltimore not Denver. Unfortunately as I would love to see Denver.

Thanks....my bad. I was looking at this

4. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Broncos win = Broncos

I had it in my mind that was a Jets win.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Bumblebee Tuna

 

[Nordberg]

I would rather see Baltimore.

Flacco sucks. He reminds me of Bledsoe with his tunnel vision. I was screaming at the TV yesterday for him to throw the ball....and apparently he couldn't hear me, because he kept getting sacked. The guy holds onto the ball forever

 

[Triggerfish]

If Belichick had no compunction about throwing a game (or heck, starting Hoyer with Wheatley and Arrington at CB) then these are the scenarios that would be in play:

4. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets win = Ravens

4a. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Broncos win = Broncos

4b. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Broncos lose = Texans

The Steelers would be erased with a Patriots loss, and the three scenarios above would play out.

You're missing one important (but HIGHLY improbable) scenerio....

Patriots LOSE, Ravens LOSE, Jets LOSE, Broncos LOSE, Steelers WIN....Pittsburgh is in.

 

[goheels22002]

You're missing one important (but HIGHLY improbable) scenerio....

Patriots LOSE, Ravens LOSE, Jets LOSE, Broncos LOSE, Steelers WIN....Pittsburgh is in.

Pittsburgh at Gillette would be a great gift and a nightmare for Steelers fans. Steelers fans would rather miss the playoffs than get smoked by the Pats in Foxboro. That would just create spasms of joy and nostalgia in NE for 2001. I e-mailed Jonathan Kraft that the Pittsburgh city fathers are planning their Super Bowl Parade and booking hotel rooms in Miami. The Steelers have no running game, their QB wishes someone would answer the phone ringing in his head and Troy Polamalu is barely recovery from an injury he sustained while cashing "You said it with your eyes..." Head & Shoulders checks. I'd take the Steelers in Foxboro over the Ravens, Dolphins or Jets any day. Top of my wish list is mini-fist-pumping-Hoodie and the Broncos.

 

[upstater1]

You're missing one important (but HIGHLY improbable) scenerio....

Patriots LOSE, Ravens LOSE, Jets LOSE, Broncos LOSE, Steelers WIN....Pittsburgh is in.

Yes, although in this scenario, the Steelers play Cincy, Patriots play Texans. I only included the three most probable scenarios.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Just updated with new info.

Need to look at mgcolby's post.

gfecte, don't know about Yahoo, but they were wrong all last week as this weekend's games proved. Jerome Bettis on his show said Yahoo was wrong all week because it didn't account for Houston's impact on Pitt's chances, so I would distrust it.

Doesn't mean I'm right and Yahoo is wrong though, but that was the case last week where I was right and Yahoo was wrong.

This is a work in progress.

thanks, though, for taking a crack at this. thankless task, when you're trying to balance so many variables. thanks again!

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

One scenario would be really interesting for wildcard weekend.

Cincy Jets
Dallas Philly
Pats Houston
AZ Packers

What would be the odds all four games are rematches of week 17 games?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Below are the scenarios by cluster:

_______________________________________________________

1. If the Ravens win, Jets win = Ravens (Houston/Patriots game is irrelevant)
...
4a. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Broncos lose = Texans

Thanks again for all the work.

I think the Pats are going to play to win on Sunday and that they're going to win.

Assuming that the Update is right and using the current spreads, then the most likely outcome is Ravens Win, Jets Win. So, that means we get the Ravens, whether we win or lose. So, I'm just thinking that that is most likely what's going to happen and I'm putting it as my Number One.

Beyond that, my head starts to hurt.

But, it's not inconceivable that we win, the Jets blow it, the Ravens beat the Raiders and the Steelers beat the Dolphins, then we get the Steelers. That's not completely nuts, so I'll make it my Number Two.

We get the Broncos on a scenario similar to Number Two (we win, Jets lose, Ravens win) if they beat KC at home and if the Steelers lose to Miami. That feels a lot less likely, but, nonetheless, I'd make it my Number Three.

I think that Number One is 60% likely, Number Two is 20% likely, Number Three is 10% likely and that there's another 10% chance that something else happens.

That's about all my poor, weak brain can handle.

 

[upstater1]

Thanks again for all the work.

I think the Pats are going to play to win on Sunday and that they're going to win.

Assuming that the Update is right and using the current spreads, then the most likely outcome is Ravens Win, Jets Win. So, that means we get the Ravens, whether we win or lose. So, I'm just thinking that that is most likely what's going to happen and I'm putting it as my Number One.

Beyond that, my head starts to hurt.

But, it's not inconceivable that we win, the Jets blow it, the Ravens beat the Raiders and the Steelers beat the Dolphins, then we get the Steelers. That's not completely nuts, so I'll make it my Number Two.

We get the Broncos on a scenario similar to Number Two (we win, Jets lose, Ravens win) if they beat KC at home and if the Steelers lose to Miami. That feels a lot less likely, but, nonetheless, I'd make it my Number Three.

I think that Number One is 60% likely, Number Two is 20% likely, Number Three is 10% likely and that there's another 10% chance that something else happens.

That's about all my poor, weak brain can handle.

I buy all of this.

I also think that Belichick will manipulate things so as to make Patriots-Steelers a virtual impossibility.

That's precisely why I favor the Patriots-lose scenarios.

Brady and the boys will play one half.

Hoyer will be out there with Edelman, Taylor and Aiken in the second half, and Darius Butler and Wheatley will be covering Andre Johnson.

If the Patriots lose, there are only three scenarios that matter.

70% Ravens
20% Broncos
10% Texans

 

[Mista Kool]

I just can't see you guys getting past the first round.

 

[upstater1]

I just can't see you guys getting past the first round.

Thanks for coming to the board. Your presence here made the owners an extra 13 cents.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I buy all of this.

I also think that Belichick will manipulate things so as to make Patriots-Steelers a virtual impossibility.

That's precisely why I favor the Patriots-lose scenarios.

Brady and the boys will play one half.

Hoyer will be out there with Edelman, Taylor and Aiken in the second half, and Darius Butler and Wheatley will be covering Andre Johnson.

If the Patriots lose, there are only three scenarios that matter.

70% Ravens
20% Broncos
10% Texans

I buy most of your math, but I'm not sure I buy your logic.

I worry about the Ravens. They have a ginormous chip on their shoulder after "how" they feel they lost the Foxboro game and were quite vocal about it for a week or more afterwards, from the HC on down. Also, that loss knocked their season temporarily off the rails as they came in 3--0 and then lost the next two games as well to drop to .500.

Anyway, my point is that I don't think the preference of the Ravens (or even the Broncos) over the Steelers is so clear cut that BB would "manipulate" the Texans game with avoiding them at the top of his mind. I think he'll play the first half and maybe most of the third quarter all out with the starters, then let the chips fall where they may with the starters on the sidelines.

 

[pao]

Breakdown

Wow, great post. The one with all the possibilities. Appreciate the work, very interesting.