Patriots wild card opponent will be:

[Patspsycho]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Ravens, Steelers, Broncos win - Jets, Texans lose = NE vs PIT

I have picked this as the most likely scenario.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Anything else incorrect? I can't see it.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Very good post... My question, is the chance to face the jets is very unlikley unless there is a 4 way tie of 8-8 teams...

It's entirely impossible for the Patriots to face the Jets.

Unless you get into ties. Then it's possible.

Please don't make me do it.

In terms of 8-8 teams, the pecking order goes like this: #1 Jax, #2 Miami, #3 Den

You don't need to go any deeper than that because this already assumes that Miami beats Pitt and that Den gets in with a loss.

So, Den is the only team that can lose and get into the playoffs. All other teams are out with a loss.

Again, if you bring ties into play, anything can happen.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

If the Patriots and Bengals end up with the same record, it will come down to strength of victory.

At the moment the Patriots victory opponents combined record is 65-85 and the Bengals is 60-89 (Bengals one game less as the Bears play tonight).

It is possible for both the Patriots and Bengals to both win and then all the Bengals strength of victory opponents to win and the Bengals could beat the Pats to the 3rd seed. Unlikely, but possible the same for both teams losing.

Pats strength of victory teams: Buf 5-10 (x2), Atl 8-7, Bal 8-7, Ten 7-8, TB 3-12, Mia 7-8, NYJ 8-7, Car 7-8, Jax 7-8.

Bengals strength of victory teams: GB 10-5, Pit 8-7 (x2), Cle 4-11 (x2), Bal 8-7 (x2), Chi 5-9 (still to play Min tonight), Det 2-13, KC 3-12.

Atlanta play Tampa Bay in Week 17 so the Pats will have 1 definite win added and so will the Bengals as Detroit plays Chicago.

Phew!

You guys just want to complicate matters.

I didn't go into changing that stat precisely because it would incorporate all 32 teams and all 16 games and the sscenarios would be endless. I also ignored possible ties.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

My guess its the Ravens vs Pats in Foxboro..

 

[IcyPatriot]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

This should help clear things up. I have a very bad headache now.

NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

I'm going to email this to Rex.

 

[sieglo]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Ravens are the team that concerns me the most.

 

[slash83]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Ravens are the team that concerns me the most.

I think the pats would put up at least 25 on them, their top 3 or 4 corners are on IR. Their defense is still good but I think if the Pats offense is clicking they would move the ball pretty effectively. The Ravens offense concerns me, Ray Rice is a stud, Flacco is a good qb and mason seems to pretty well whenever he plays the Pats.

Broncos for obvious reasons would probably concern me most if we had to play them first.

 

[SVN]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

imagine the jets meeting the bengals in the playoffs..beating them and then beating the colts season in the 2nd round. colts fans will go nuts..if that happens although its a long shot.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

OK, here's another one. Notice "if the playoffs started today", we play the Jets.

But the season does not end today so it doesn't matter.

A look at the scenarios if the NFL playoffs started today - ESPN

 

[Patspsycho]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

OK, here's another one. Notice "if the season ended today", we play the Jets.

But the season does not end today so it doesn't matter.

A look at the scenarios if the NFL playoffs started today - ESPN

I just don't see Jets beating Bengals.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

I just don't see Jets beating Bengals.

Didn't quite see the Colts game either. The Bengals may tank the game, so in effect the Jests won't beat them but the Jest will win.

 

[Patters]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Incredible post. Thanks for the headache!

 

[efeene]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Great work to all involved - I have a question. Not out of doubt but curiosity.

If the season ended today the Ravens are the 5 seed and Jets 6th right?

If both win this coming weekend - what variable changes to flip flop the two teams? If both win then the Jets are shown as the 5th seed and Ravens 6th right? What tiebreaker plays differently next week than this week?

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

OK, here's another one. Notice "if the playoffs started today", we play the Jets.

But the season does not end today so it doesn't matter.

A look at the scenarios if the NFL playoffs started today - ESPN

Yes, those "season end today" scenarios don't take into account the way the tiebreakers change in a week. For instance, the common games tiebreaker needs at least four common games, whereas most of the tied teams after this week have only three common games. Balt against Oakland and Cincy and the Jets produce a lot of 4 common game scenarios which in turn trigger the tiebreaker and make this week's seedings totally irrelevant.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Great work to all involved - I have a question. Not out of doubt but curiosity.

If the season ended today the Ravens are the 5 seed and Jets 6th right?

If both win this coming weekend - what variable changes to flip flop the two teams? If both win then the Jets are shown as the 5th seed and Ravens 6th right? What tiebreaker plays differently next week than this week?

If the season ended today, it would be impossible to seed any of these teams since the Broncos have the best resume but they lost head-to-head to both Balt and Pitt, so I couldn't really do a seeding.

What changes though in the next week is this: common games. Right now, teams have only 3 common games, and you have to have four. After next week, four different teams will have four common games, and that tiebreaker will be in effect.

 

[upstater1]

If Belichick had no compunction about throwing a game (or heck, starting Hoyer with Wheatley and Arrington at CB) then these are the scenarios that would be in play:

4. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets win = Ravens

4a. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Broncos win = Broncos

4b. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Broncos lose = Texans

The Steelers would be erased with a Patriots loss, and the three scenarios above would play out.

 

[efeene]

There are 19 listed scenarios for our 1st round opponent by upstater1 - here is a quick breakdown of what teams have the most scenarios that lead to us in round 1-

Denver --- 5 of the 19 scenarios
Houston --- 4 of the 19 Scenarios
Jacksonville --- 3 of the 19 Scenarios
Miami --- 3 of the 19 Scenarios
Baltimore --- 2 of the 19 Scenarios
Pittsburgh --- 2 of the 19 Scenarios

Funny to me that 7-8 Miami and Jax have more chances to play us than the 8-7 Steelers or Ravens.

 

[D-Money]

The ravens will be our opponents should we beat the Texans.

 

[upstater1]

There are 19 listed scenarios for our 1st round opponent by upstater1 - here is a quick breakdown of what teams have the most scenarios that lead to us in round 1-

Denver --- 5 of the 19 scenarios
Houston --- 4 of the 19 Scenarios
Jacksonville --- 3 of the 19 Scenarios
Miami --- 3 of the 19 Scenarios
Baltimore --- 2 of the 19 Scenarios
Pittsburgh --- 2 of the 19 Scenarios

Funny to me that 7-8 Miami and Jax have more chances to play us than the 8-7 Steelers or Ravens.

Yes, it is odd, but you need to remember this isn't about probabilities, just scenarios. In fact, the scenarios that are concise (such as #3 and #4) are all a lot more probable than the scenarios that include the Phins and Jax.

Consider: the probability of this one scenario alone (Jets and Balt win = Pats against Balt) is about 40 to 50%