Patriots type 3-4 OLB

[Ochmed Jones]

There's a lot to like about Acho as an all-around player, but his single biggest downside is that he's not an explosive pass rusher. Given the consensus about the team's needs, that's a pretty big downside.

With his intelligence, agility and frame, Acho might actually project well to ILB in the Pats scheme.

The tape says Acho is not an inside downhill thumper like Ted Johnson or even MR. slow motion Spikes.

Acho's tape says he plays the run fairly well, but when I think about LOT Long of the Dolphins coming off the ball at him on a running play, I cringe.

A guy that intrigues me is Sherald of Pittsburgh (even though I can't spell his name right). He is a little bigger and better at standing up OT's on running plays plus he brings that tremendous first step suddenness. I could see BB taking a chance if the character issues check out and he is available at #33.

 

[MaineMan]

It does indeed. But I think the previous Ninkovich comparison comes into play then. If what you want is a smart, hard-working guy with good all-around athleticism who will stay sound in the various parts of his assignment but who doesn't have to be schemed against as a pass rusher, don't we already have him?

Well, yeah. But it never hurts to have more than one guy like that. Pending Cunningham's further development, we sorta have 1.7 of them. Plus TBC (?) and Eric Moore (??). So, maybe BB does focus more on the pass rush of the guy he takes this time around. Or maybe he, again, goes with a Ninkovich/Cunningham type who can develop a pass rush. I'm assuming, of course, that it's just as possible for a "a smart, hard-working guy with good all-around athleticism who will stay sound in the various parts of his assignment" to develop a pass rush as it is for an elite college pass-rusher to learn how to play run defense and cover. Although it seems like most everyone assumes the latter and gives no credence to the former.

The other side is that we don't really know how much more Ninkovich might develop. His comps with Vrabel at the same point in their careers are disturbingly close.

Vrabel became a fulltime OLB within the Pats' VETERAN defense in 2001 at age 26 after 4 years as a 3-4OLB reserve/sub-rusher with the Steelers (51 games active, no starts).

Ninkovich became a fulltime OLB for the Pats' YOUNG defense in 2010 at age 26. His prior experience:
* 2006, Saints - 3 games active as a 4-3 DE
* 2007, Dolphins - 4 games active as a 4-3 DE
* 2008, Dolphins - 1 game active (Miami's 4-3 to 3-4 conversion year)
* 2008, Saints - no games active
* 2009, Patriots - 15 games active (no starts) as 3-4 OLB reserve/sub-rusher

And here are their stats for those age 26 seasons:
* 16 games, 10 starts, 55 TT, 4 SK, 2 INT, 4 PD
* 16 games, 12 starts, 53 TT, 3 SK, 2 INT, 9 PD

See the difference?

 

[mgteich]

Yup, we always have our analysis which shows rookies as being so much better than players we have. Just give them a year or so to learn.

The open question is whether anyon available after 50 will be an improvement over our current pair Ninkovich and Cunningham (with Banta-Cain as our #3).

Many have said "anyone but Banta-Cain" or "anyone but Ninkovich" or "Cunningham isn't a top pass rusher yet". We have 5 OLB's: Cunningham, Banta-Cain, Ninkovich, Fletcher and Moore. I'm not sure that Bleichick sees the Acho's of the world as an improvement over Ninkovich.

I would certainly like to add a player or two, but one needs to be early. Houston, Reed and Sheard seem to players who are likley to give us improvement.

I suspect that the sweet spot for DE's will be in the top 20; the sweet spot for OLB's will be in the next 20.

It does indeed. But I think the previous Ninkovich comparison comes into play then. If what you want is a smart, hard-working guy with good all-around athleticism who will stay sound in the various parts of his assignment but who doesn't have to be schemed against as a pass rusher, don't we already have him?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Houston, Reed and Sheard seem to players who are likley to give us improvement.

Cunningham had two things which neither of these gentlemen have:
-- BB saw Cunningham practice at Florida.
-- BB saw Cunningham in Linebacker drills at his Pro-Day, he didn't have to guess using cone drill data.

I have my early favorites for OLB, but I have higher hopes for my later round favorites:
-- Karl Klug
-- D'Aundre Reed
-- Bruce Miller
-- Brandon Bair

However, neither of our dreams are reasonable in the face of Belichick eccentricity.

 

[supafly]

Thanks everyone for the assessment of Acho. Much appreciated.

I have absolutely no idea at all about him whatsoever, but I saw him in the top 5-10 prospects at the position, and have heard some positive things about his ability to learn, maturity level, and supposedly he's pretty smart too. I just threw it out there to learn a little bit about him.

I am familiar with Sheard from Pitt, since I live here, and get stuck watching their games pretty often. I'd also love to possibly take a flyer on Romeus, but I doubt that happens--just a gut feeling though.

Regardless, it's great to talk actual football, especially during this slow part of the offseason (no free agency) + the situation with the lockout.

 

[MaineMan]

Yup, we always have our analysis which shows rookies as being so much better than players we have. Just give them a year or so to learn.

The open question is whether anyone available after 50 will be an improvement over our current pair Ninkovich and Cunningham (with Banta-Cain as our #3).

Many have said "anyone but Banta-Cain" or "anyone but Ninkovich" or "Cunningham isn't a top pass rusher yet". We have 5 OLB's: Cunningham, Banta-Cain, Ninkovich, Fletcher and Moore. I'm not sure that Bleichick sees the Acho's of the world as an improvement over Ninkovich.

I would certainly like to add a player or two, but one needs to be early. Houston, Reed and Sheard seem to players who are likley to give us improvement.

I suspect that the sweet spot for DE's will be in the top 20; the sweet spot for OLB's will be in the next 20.

I'm sure I'm nearly alone in this, but to me the open question preceding that one is whether BB sees any significant need for OLB "improvement" at all. Ninko and Cunningham both appear to be "...smart, hard-working guys with good all-around athleticism who will stay sound in the various parts of their assignments, but who don't (necessarily) have to be schemed against as pass rushers..."

If BB's defensive philosophy is "STOP big plays first; MAKE big plays second," or maybe, "stop big plays early in order to put yourself in a better position to make big plays later," perhaps the Ninko/Cunningham pairing is just fine for him - under the condition that he can, one way or another, restore a (mostly) 3-down 30-front that can actually contain an opponent's ground game and get significant pressure on its own, one thing that was sorely lacking in 2010.

IOW, if the D-line is restored to a state in which it can:
(A) contribute a much higher portion of the work involved in creating 3rd-and-long (still with LB help) than the 2010 line did
(B) make running for the first down from 3rd-and-long a much less viable proposition for opponents (even without significant LB help) than it appeared to be in 2010
- and -
(C) contribute significantly more QB pressure on 3rd-and-long without sacrificing (B)
--- then, perhaps, the OLB corps with the Ninko/Cunningham pair as (mostly) 3-down guys with TBC/Moore (or someone like them) as occasional/situational edge-rushers and Wright/Pryor (or someone like them) as occasional/situational interior rushers is already enough for BB's scheme (in which, it appears to me, it's the scheme that generates the pass-rush, rather than any one particular player all the time).

If this is the front-7 circumstance as BB sees it, perhaps all that's really "missing" for him is a realistic injury-replacement for Ninko/Cunningham (and he may think he already has that in Fletcher) and, possibly upgrades for the TBC/Moore and Wright/Pryor sub-rushers. In which case, he may not even look at OLB until the late-2nd, try to upgrade the sub-rushers with late-round picks and focus exclusively on DE/OL with the first three picks, whatever they end up being. In fact, I wouldn't be completely shocked to see BB take TWO from a list of Watt, Jordan, Heyward, Wilkerson if things fall right, and then take Acho at #60 and/or Romeus even later.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying that this IS the way BB sees things. He may well go for, say, Houston, Aldon Smith or someone like them as a way of moving Ninkovich or even Cunningham, down into that reserve/injury-replacement role. I'm just saying that BB may have an alternative, yet still rational, way of looking at this that would leave the door open for a guy like Acho.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

If BB's defensive philosophy is "STOP big plays first; MAKE big plays second," or maybe, "stop big plays early in order to put yourself in a better position to make big plays later," perhaps the Ninko/Cunningham pairing is just fine for him - under the condition that he can, one way or another, restore a (mostly) 3-down 30-front that can actually contain an opponent's ground game and get significant pressure on its own, one thing that was sorely lacking in 2010.

It's not unreasonable to assume Ninko and Cunningham are going to grow further into their roles. The question that arises, "with TBC entering his 9th season in the NFL, and unlikely to improve significantly beyond his present level of attainment, is it not prudent to look for or prepare a successor?" With a follow-on question, "who is waiting in the wings on Special Teams or the Practice Squad" (not just as successor, but as depth)? Inquiring minds await Bill Belichick's answers.

 

[bucky]

It's not unreasonable to assume Ninko and Cunningham are going to grow further into their roles.

Yes, everyone can "grow" and "improve". The questions are:

1) What is their current level of play? - I would rate both average at best.
2) How far can they grow? - Hard to say, but IMO Nink's ceiling is as a poor man's Vrable. And Cunnigham's ceiling is as a poor man's Willie Mac.
3) How fast will they improve and how long will it take them to get there? - Obviously this is impossible to say.
4) Can either of them be improved on? - There's no question there are prospects in this draft who are better pass rushers. But are there prospects who are better overall OLBs? Hard to say, but IMO it's worth a shot to get a pass rusher who will contribute on 3rd down and grow into the competition for a 3-down OLB. Much like the Jets did with John Abraham 10 years ago.

 

[Water Boy]

I'm assuming, of course, that it's just as possible for a "a smart, hard-working guy with good all-around athleticism who will stay sound in the various parts of his assignment" to develop a pass rush as it is for an elite college pass-rusher to learn how to play run defense and cover. Although it seems like most everyone assumes the latter and gives no credence to the former.

In watching the combine Mike Mayock is of the "Nature" rather than "Nurture" opinion when it comes to edge rushers. In particular he cited the ability to "watersurf" or run at full speed around the edge with a 45 degree body lean. Its why he likes Quinn so much and he says his ability to lean is on par with Dwight Freeney.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Yes, everyone can "grow" and "improve". The questions are:

1) What is their current level of play? - I would rate both average at best. I'd grade one "rookie" and the other certainly makes "average" appear hopeful given the Vrabel similarities.
2) How far can they grow? - Hard to say, but IMO Nink's ceiling is as a poor man's Vrable. And Cunnigham's ceiling is as a poor man's Willie Mac. Perhaps, yet at this point in their careers "poor man's" comparisons are encouraging.
3) How fast will they improve and how long will it take them to get there? - Obviously this is impossible to say. Ninkovich appears to be moving right along, Cunningham looked to have hit a rookie wall - this lockout hardly does him any service.
4) Can either of them be improved on? - There's no question there are prospects in this draft who are better pass rushers. But are there prospects who are better overall OLBs? Hard to say, but IMO it's worth a shot to get a pass rusher who will contribute on 3rd down and grow into the competition for a 3-down OLB. Much like the Jets did with John Abraham 10 years ago.

Point four is in keeping with my concern for depth.

 

[MaineMan]

Yes, everyone can "grow" and "improve". The questions are:

1) What is their current level of play? - I would rate both average at best.
2) How far can they grow? - Hard to say, but IMO Nink's ceiling is as a poor man's Vrable. And Cunnigham's ceiling is as a poor man's Willie Mac.
3) How fast will they improve and how long will it take them to get there? - Obviously this is impossible to say.
4) Can either of them be improved on? - There's no question there are prospects in this draft who are better pass rushers. But are there prospects who are better overall OLBs? Hard to say, but IMO it's worth a shot to get a pass rusher who will contribute on 3rd down and grow into the competition for a 3-down OLB. Much like the Jets did with John Abraham 10 years ago.

Well, assuming that BB is satisfied with Ninko and Cunningham as solid OLBs who will improve, he's been pretty successful at finding decent 3rd-down sub-rushers much later. Jarvis Green was the earliest and he was, what?, a 4th rounder? So, I'd question (a bit) the idea that BB would spend a high pick on such a guy in the hope that he can develop into a solid OLB.

 

[MaineMan]

In watching the combine Mike Mayock is of the "Nature" rather than "Nurture" opinion when it comes to edge rushers. In particular he cited the ability to "watersurf" or run at full speed around the edge with a 45 degree body lean. Its why he likes Quinn so much and he says his ability to lean is on par with Dwight Freeney.

I'd agree with Mayock on that particular "elite" rush technique, but there are many other techniques that may be much more "nurture" than "nature" that can be just as successful - especially if all the surrounding players and the scheme can produce effective pressure all around.

 

[VJCPatriot]

and watt is nothing like seymour. seymour has the frame to carry 325-330 and still keep the 40 under 5.0.......watt is not quite that and never will be

This is getting ridiculous. I'll have to call you out on that one. Seymour has never played at 330 in his life. Seymour weighed in at 299 lbs at his combine. Watt weighed in at 290. A grand total difference of 9 lbs. Seymour was also a senior and Watt is a junior. Watt has time to grow into his full frame and size. The difference in weight is negligible. Let's not fabricate facts just to fit bias.

this is what the NFL analysis says

NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - J.J. Watt

Lacks some lateral mobility both rushing the passer and playing in space.

This is also what this NFL Draft Analysis said:
"Summary: When I first put on tape of J.J. Watt I saw him crash inside and let Tyrrell Prior roll outside of him for a huge gain. I saw him often get overpowered by bigger linemen and lose leverage. I also saw a couple missed tackles. That gave me a bad impression of him, but after a while I began to see the kind of player Watt really is. I see a natural leader who leads by example and who loves the game of football. I saw a DE with talent and skills that cannot be taught. He makes plays; whether it is stripping the football, blocking a kick or recovering a fumble, he is always in the right place at the right time. I don't know what to call that, maybe luck, but whatever it is, Watt has it."

Watt has the IT factor, a great motor, leadership abilities, and talent. The Patriots would be very fortunate to get this guy on the roster. He is a playmaker who can impact football games at a position of need. Watt has a very high ceiling and unteachable combination of rare athleticism and size that could make him an ELITE player at the NFL level.

 

[IllegalContact]

This is getting ridiculous. I'll have to call you out on that one. Seymour has never played at 330 in his life. Seymour weighed in at 299 lbs at his combine. Watt weighed in at 290. A grand total difference of 9 lbs. Seymour was also a senior and Watt is a junior. Watt has time to grow into his full frame and size. The difference in weight is negligible. Let's not fabricate facts just to fit bias..

you can call out whatever you wish.

watt is 22.....seymour did not turn 22 until midway through his rookie season, so I'm not sure what being a junior or a senoir means.....

seymour had been listed at 320 for several years and was said to have played even higher then that......

This is also what this NFL Draft Analysis said:
"Summary: When I first put on tape of J.J. Watt I saw him crash inside and let Tyrrell Prior roll outside of him for a huge gain. I saw him often get overpowered by bigger linemen and lose leverage. I also saw a couple missed tackles. That gave me a bad impression of him, but after a while I began to see the kind of player Watt really is. I see a natural leader who leads by example and who loves the game of football. I saw a DE with talent and skills that cannot be taught. He makes plays; whether it is stripping the football, blocking a kick or recovering a fumble, he is always in the right place at the right time. I don't know what to call that, maybe luck, but whatever it is, Watt has it."

Watt has the IT factor, a great motor, leadership abilities, and talent. The Patriots would be very fortunate to get this guy on the roster. He is a playmaker who can impact football games at a position of need. Watt has a very high ceiling and unteachable combination of rare athleticism and size that could make him an ELITE player at the NFL level.

ridiculous? as the 'IT' factor you describe? lots of college players have that.

like I said, I believe wilkerson to be more complete for the pats scheme. there are countless players over the years with 'high ceilings' and unteachable size/athleticism who have fallen flat on their faces. doesn't mean that he will, but there's a reason he isn't being mentioned in the same breath as dareus or fairley.

maybe the pats will draft him and he will be great.......then again, maybe the pats get him and it turns out that he is no more than a situational guy who does not hold up against the run. I like wilkerson better.....but thats just me

 

[mgteich]

Yup.

However, Belichick may agree. This consensus of this board certtinly does not have a great record in evaluating who Belichick will choose or not choose.

I am fine with Belichick drafting his man at DE in the mid-first no matter who he is. I am fine with Jordan, Watt and Wilkerson; but I could see Belichick even choosing someone else.

I like wilkerson better.....but thats just me

 

[MaineMan]

This is getting ridiculous. I'll have to call you out on that one. Seymour has never played at 330 in his life. Seymour weighed in at 299 lbs at his combine. Watt weighed in at 290. A grand total difference of 9 lbs. Seymour was also a senior and Watt is a junior. Watt has time to grow into his full frame and size. The difference in weight is negligible. Let's not fabricate facts just to fit bias.



This is also what this NFL Draft Analysis said:
"Summary: When I first put on tape of J.J. Watt I saw him crash inside and let Tyrrell Prior roll outside of him for a huge gain. I saw him often get overpowered by bigger linemen and lose leverage. I also saw a couple missed tackles. That gave me a bad impression of him, but after a while I began to see the kind of player Watt really is. I see a natural leader who leads by example and who loves the game of football. I saw a DE with talent and skills that cannot be taught. He makes plays; whether it is stripping the football, blocking a kick or recovering a fumble, he is always in the right place at the right time. I don't know what to call that, maybe luck, but whatever it is, Watt has it."

Watt has the IT factor, a great motor, leadership abilities, and talent. The Patriots would be very fortunate to get this guy on the roster. He is a playmaker who can impact football games at a position of need. Watt has a very high ceiling and unteachable combination of rare athleticism and size that could make him an ELITE player at the NFL level.

While I'm not saying that Watt is my favorite candidate for the Pats' next 34 LDE, to be fair about comparing his game tape successes/failures to the way he'd need to play in BBs scheme, he WAS doing what was required of him in the Wisconsin scheme (mostly crashing inside with no OLB to protect his flank) and doing so against "DE-read" offenses that don't exist in the NFL. To conclude, based on that, that he can't become a gap-filling run-stopper for the Pats is really no different from saying that a premier 1st round pass-rusher is never going to be able to learn how to set the edge as an OLB (or that a run-stopping college DE/OLB is never going to able to learn how to get QB pressure).

I mean, either guys CAN develop the skills to do things they haven't done in college or they can't (what's good for the goose, etc.). If they can't, we might as well pack up and go home because I don't see any front seven prospect in this class who's already done everything that BB's scheme requires and who can step right in a do the same, so there's really nobody we can safely draft.

 

[bucky]

Well, assuming that BB is satisfied with Ninko and Cunningham as solid OLBs who will improve, he's been pretty successful at finding decent 3rd-down sub-rushers much later. Jarvis Green was the earliest and he was, what?, a 4th rounder? So, I'd question (a bit) the idea that BB would spend a high pick on such a guy in the hope that he can develop into a solid OLB.

You are right to question whether BB would spend a high pick on such a guy. Yet the example you gave was 9 years ago. Recent history is not so kind - Crable, Moore, Burgess, Pryor, Landon Cohen, even Kyle Arrington - all guys that have been used as 3rd down pass rushers over the past 2 years with poor results. I wouldn't say that's a success.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

You are right to question whether BB would spend a high pick on such a guy. Yet the example you gave was 9 years ago. Recent history is not so kind - Crable, Moore, Burgess, Pryor, Landon Cohen, even Kyle Arrington - all guys that have been used as 3rd down pass rushers over the past 2 years with poor results. I wouldn't say that's a success.

I agree it is not a success, which is why a guy like Sheard in the second round makes more sense.

First he has that first step suddenness that we desperately need at OLB.

Second he is not that bad at setting the edge. Not a Kerrigan, but not as bad as Miller.

Third he has some lateral agility and change of direction that translate to coverage ability, he will be raw as raw can be, but if he is willing to put in the work, by year two he could be decent.

 

[MaineMan]

You are right to question whether BB would spend a high pick on such a guy. Yet the example you gave was 9 years ago. Recent history is not so kind - Crable, Moore, Burgess, Pryor, Landon Cohen, even Kyle Arrington - all guys that have been used as 3rd down pass rushers over the past 2 years with poor results. I wouldn't say that's a success.

Out of your list, only Crable and Pryor were actually drafted. "Drafting sub-rushers" WAS the topic, yes?

Moore and Cohen were FA emergency injury replacements at the end of just this season and I seriously doubt that Cohen was picked up for his demonstrated pass-rush prowess. That Moore actually showed some flashes in limited playing time is very cool, though.

No argument from me about Burgess being a Grade A EPIC FAIL, regardless of what kind of list we're talking about. Crable, too, though I'm not sure he was acquired as just a sub-rusher.

But, bucky ... Arrington? Really? A UDFA cornerback/special teamer who was in at "DE" for a few plays at the end of ONE game and he makes your list of "pass-rushers who failed"? Sorry. No disrespect, but you might want to excise that one.

I understand your point, though, and if you want to expand the list to include non-drafted acquisitions, we're also talking about Mike Wright and TBC (who, IMO, was originally drafted as just a sub-rusher, AND brought back as a sub-rusher, but, through an unfortunate set of circumstances, ended up playing a much larger role than he was cut out for).

Green was drafted in the 4th in 2002 wasn't really very productive until 2006 (7.5sk) and 2007 (6.5sk) and then tailed off (heh).

Wright was picked up UDFA in 2005, but was really productive until the past two years (5.0 and 5.5 sks).

TBC was a 7th rounder in 2003, got to 5.5sks in 2006 before leaving for SF and has had 15 sks in the two seasons he's been back (when he clearly SHOULD have been just a sub-rusher).

So, maybe I shouldn't have painted myself into a corner with the "drafted" part. But my overall point was that there seems always to have been a reasonably successful sub-rusher in the fold (with some overlap among them), none of whom cost a lot in draft picks (Green being the highest expenditure). And it's entirely possible that Pryor (6th) or Deaderick (7th) or even Moore (FA) develops into the next guy before Wright (UDFA) is done being productive.

 

[Water Boy]

I believe wilkerson to be more complete for the pats scheme.

I'll 3rd that emotion.

Here's a poll on the Chargers Forum on the Watt vs Wilkerson debate. (Watt is way ahead).

Who Would You Rather: Muhammad Wilkerson or JJ Watt? - The Official San Diego Chargers Forum