Patriots Offseason Has Potential to Wow

[jsull87]

Why get Mario and Lloyd when you could probably get Lloyd, Mathis, and sign a few vet min players.

Because Mario is a guy you can build a top 5 defense around and Mathis is a solid vet.

Thats why Mario will get paid more.

 

[patsfan-1982]

Ocho and Haynesworth were WOW moves they both sucked, Carter Anderson and Waters had the biggest impact on the team and they came to the pats as two vets no one wanted and a JAG that could not even find a back up roll on a team,

WOW moves look great on paper and make us fans happy but most of the time they dont make you a better team you can ask the 2011 eagels that

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Ocho and Haynesworth were WOW moves they both sucked, Carter Anderson and Waters had the biggest impact on the team and they came to the pats as two vets no one wanted and a JAG that could not even find a back up roll on a team,

WOW moves look great on paper and make us fans happy but most of the time they dont make you a better team you can ask the 2011 eagels that

You could ask the 2007 Patriots the same thing. Ocho and Haynesworth were salvage efforts. That situation is not comparable to signing Mario Williams, but he's going to command low teens per year which is just too much, regardless of whether or not he's worth it. Jared Allen could want an opportunity to win and take a paycut . Elephant role returneth.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Before people start adding in and spending the $6.6M in carryover, understand that much if not most of it will be eaten up by escalators and incentives met in several player contracts and not yet accounted for. We likely have a lot of guys who exceeded playing time projections this season... We've had rookie deals in the past where projected player salaries doubled as a result. Mike Wright was one example. As Andrew Brandt tweeted yesterday some teams with carryover and currently under the cap could still find themselves over it once those are factored in. We won't, but that isn't straight free additional 2012 cap space. It may already be accounted for.

 

[Rob0729]

I read that the Pats have 6 million of cap space and the Jets have 8.8 million...once again proving how far greater the Jets are than the Patriots...of course, the post comes from Sewerhole Insider and its "cap expert" guy...so,I mean, they are so screwy over there it's probably utter garbage...BUT...does anyone have THE definitive numbers from an impeccable source???

They are just idiots. They still think it is 2011. They read the Pro Football Talk article that said the Jets have $8 million left in money to carry over to this year's cap and the Pats have $6.6 million and they think that is this year's cap figures.

 

[Rob0729]

By the time the Pats are done cutting guys like Ochocinco and Barrett and Mike Wright retiring, the Pats will be around $35 million under the cap. What they do with Matt Light (they could give him an extension just to spread his cap money over two years) and whether Waters retires or not could free up another $5 million.

The Pats will have plenty of money to spend. I would assume that it will take about $15 million in cap dollars to lock up the free agents they want to retain (assuming Welker is franchised) and a few million less if Welker gets a long term deal. Assume that it will take $5 million for rookies. That means that the Pats will have between $15-25 million to acquire new players. Not a huge amount, but the Pats are likely to structure any long term deal so that the cap numbers are relatively low this year and next and let most of the cap hit occur in 2014 and beyond when the new TV deals kick in and the cap goes up a lot.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

Before people start adding in and spending the $6.6M in carryover, understand that much if not most of it will be eaten up by escalators and incentives met in several player contracts and not yet accounted for. We likely have a lot of guys who exceeded playing time projections this season... We've had rookie deals in the past where projected player salaries doubled as a result. Mike Wright was one example. As Andrew Brandt tweeted yesterday some teams with carryover and currently under the cap could still find themselves over it once those are factored in. We won't, but that isn't straight free additional 2012 cap space. It may already be accounted for.

That's a good point, but I think in a significant amount of those cases, guys not counted by the cap get the escalators and bump someone off, making a small difference in cap hit. No matter how you slice it though, the Pats are in great cap shape even without any contract restructuring.

The massive expanse of salary cap in a couple of years will get a lot of teams out of cap hell. The Patriots won't be in cap hell, instead, they'll be able to resign a solid core of young players coming off of their initial contracts (Gronk, Hernandez etc...), and still have plenty of money to make the team better.

A play shy of winning the superbowl and in great cap shape with the cap about dramatically expand is a pretty unique situation. How will this affect BBs drafting strategy? I think the long term outlook for the Patriots has never been so bright.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

By the time the Pats are done cutting guys like Ochocinco and Barrett and Mike Wright retiring, the Pats will be around $35 million under the cap. What they do with Matt Light (they could give him an extension just to spread his cap money over two years) and whether Waters retires or not could free up another $5 million.

The Pats will have plenty of money to spend. I would assume that it will take about $15 million in cap dollars to lock up the free agents they want to retain (assuming Welker is franchised) and a few million less if Welker gets a long term deal. Assume that it will take $5 million for rookies. That means that the Pats will have between $15-25 million to acquire new players. Not a huge amount, but the Pats are likely to structure any long term deal so that the cap numbers are relatively low this year and next and let most of the cap hit occur in 2014 and beyond when the new TV deals kick in and the cap goes up a lot.

The $6.6 is probably largely gone, spoken for in escalators and incentives. They will net around $3.5M in space if Wright and Ocho go, but their replacements will cost that and possibly more (although Lloyd may be off the grid since he apparently signed on with Tom Condon). They can eek out a couple of million more with back of the roster cuts, but since they are already at 52 the replacement cost will negate most of that saving. They aren't as inclined to postpone the inevitable as you think contract wise, they prefer to pay as you go. Pushing off any of Light's hit into 2013 would be unwise as they have lots of signings to deal with by then and the cap will remain flat.

They'll have around $25M to work with and can manufacture another $5+ if needbe, but they won't manufacture it unless they need to. They will need at least $5M to sign draftees and another $5M or more in excess to cover end of season needs and potential rollover to cover next year's escalators and incentives met. They will need $9.4M to tag Welker and $2M+ to tender RFA and ERFA. They will do their due diligence but they won't be big players in top tier FA. They will shop the second wave and hit the bargain basement for closeouts in what will be a deep FA class as the draft approaches. In reality they will have about $5-$10M to play with. That will likely land them 4-5 FA in the mid level to JAG category as opposed to one let alone 2 perceived impact players. A couple of those are likely to be our own. This is how they remain competitive while staying out of the kind of cap bind some competitive and even non competitive teams persistently find themselves in. Much of any talent infusion will have to come via the draft.

Bill liked this team on the whole so you aren't going to see wholesale changes, just some tweeking to add talent and reinforcements to make necessary replacements. Guys like Mario who will require nearly double digit to mid teens average deals won't get them here. We will have our quota of them already in Brady, Welker, Mankins and Wilfork. Add many more to that list and you will limit flexibility going forward to retain significant pieces of the core like the TE's and the experienced middle class.

 

[sieglo]

I am looking for a big name DL pickup. Someone like Albert Haynesworth, maybe.

 

[reflexblue]

I am going to respectfully disagree with this assessment. The Patriots pass rush in 2011 was light years ahead of where it had been the previous three years; you can't lump the '11 pass rush in with the pass rush of those other teams. If you had to pick only one area on this team that lagged behind and needed to be upgraded then that would without a doubt be pass coverage, not the pass rush. In fact it was the pass rush that helped hide the glaring deficiencies of the secondary, helped along with schemes by the coaching staff.

Granted the pass rush cannot be ignored this off-season since Anderson and Carter are free agents. Plus, there are other free agents that would be huge upgrades - whether they big money, big name players like Mario Williams or less costly options - but in my opinion the Pats defensive line did a much better job than the secondary did this year.

Cater and Anderson are old in foot ball years, there is absolutely no guarantee that they could play up to the same level as last year, especially Carter. The D-line and pass rush have been ignored for many years now. The last time the Pats had a Really effective, consitant pass rush was when Vrable and Willie Mac were on the field at the same time.

 

[Smokeeye123]

So how much would Mario be asking for anyways? 60 Mill 5 years? We could always make a backloaded contract for him.

 

[Bonzo]

Cater and Anderson are old in foot ball years, there is absolutely no guarantee that they could play up to the same level as last year, especially Carter.

Carter is (almost exactly) 4 years older than Anderson, who I expect is the more likely candidate to return.

Would not be at all surprised to see Deaderick make a pretty major leap in his third season.

 

[UK_Pat37]

I am going to respectfully disagree with this assessment. The Patriots pass rush in 2011 was light years ahead of where it had been the previous three years; you can't lump the '11 pass rush in with the pass rush of those other teams. If you had to pick only one area on this team that lagged behind and needed to be upgraded then that would without a doubt be pass coverage, not the pass rush. In fact it was the pass rush that helped hide the glaring deficiencies of the secondary, helped along with schemes by the coaching staff.

Granted the pass rush cannot be ignored this off-season since Anderson and Carter are free agents. Plus, there are other free agents that would be huge upgrades - whether they big money, big name players like Mario Williams or less costly options - but in my opinion the Pats defensive line did a much better job than the secondary did this year.

IMO our pass rush is heavily overrated. Light years is a tad strong. We had FOUR sacks more than last season's 'horrendous' pass rush as so many people called it.

It seems more impressive in 2011 purely because we had two guys with double digit sacks...in 2010 it was more spread around the team.

Trust me, there are serious issues with our pass rush because whilst it had its moments in 2011, it out right disappeared at times. If anything, when we were playing a lot of zone, we just didn't get enough pass rush which was half our problem.

It starts up front, and Carter and Anderson having top years shouldn't hide the fact we're too big and too slow on the D Line.

 

[Wotan_the_Wanderer]

I also agree with those who think the 20 sacks tallied by Carter and Anderson were pretty much soft totals and at no point did I get the impression that our pass rush was feared by opposing teams. In a 34 rotation, I feel like we have a bunch of third OLBs and this includes Ninko and Anderson. Given his age and his injury also, I'm not sure that Carter's even brought back and we have not seen enough of Cunningham to assess his how he truly fits into the scheme. We need to keep adding frontline talent to this rotation and upgrading.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

IMO our pass rush is heavily overrated. Light years is a tad strong. We had FOUR sacks more than last season's 'horrendous' pass rush as so many people called it.

It seems more impressive in 2011 purely because we had two guys with double digit sacks...in 2010 it was more spread around the team.

Trust me, there are serious issues with our pass rush because whilst it had its moments in 2011, it out right disappeared at times. If anything, when we were playing a lot of zone, we just didn't get enough pass rush which was half our problem.

It starts up front, and Carter and Anderson having top years shouldn't hide the fact we're too big and too slow on the D Line.

We also faced weaker QBs with less experience, guys like Tebow and the KC QB really helped our defense and pass rush look good.

I think we need a solid upgrade at safety, that can help big time.

 

[Dobbo]

We also faced weaker QBs with less experience, guys like Tebow and the KC QB really helped our defense and pass rush look good.

And the NYJ QB...

 

[Sciz]

Pertaining to the pass rush, one huge key to a more productive pass rush is figuring out how to be productive starting right away in week 1 and throughout the early part of the season. The Pats' pass rush has definitely been the tale of two halves, halves of a season.

2010 Games 1-8: 13 sacks, 24th
2011 Games 1-8: 15 sacks, T-25th

2010 Games 9-16: 23 sacks, T-2nd
2011 Games 9-16: 25 sacks, 4th

Now they just need to put together a full season of rushing the passer. Those 48 sacks between the two second halves would be the 13th best sack total of the past decade if it were one season instead of two put together.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

By the time the Pats are done cutting guys like Ochocinco and Barrett and Mike Wright retiring, the Pats will be around $35 million under the cap. What they do with Matt Light (they could give him an extension just to spread his cap money over two years) and whether Waters retires or not could free up another $5 million.

Not much they can do there; the only part of his 2012 cap hit they can reduce is his $3.4M salary, and that only by converting some of it to a bonus. The most they could realistically save on Light is about $1.2M.

You can redistribute salary by converting it into a bonus to spread it out, but you can't do anything about already-paid bonuses and their prorations (the $3M from his 2011 SB is set in stone, and can't be reduced).