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Patriots offense has become far too scheme heavy


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...I think we've seen the staff be more cognizant of this the last few years with Vollmer, Solder, Gronk all beefing up the run game, but we still don't have an outside receiver who can dominate a corner on physical ability. Welker's role is not that and asking him to be that is too much for someone his size.

For years I very forcefully denied the belief we need a big time receiver, and I still do to a degree. However we absolutely, positively need a guy who can "go up and get it" on the outside and get us big plays and easy points.

In 2011, the Patriots had the lead with just minutes left in the Super Bowl. They reached that point without Lloyd and with a hobbled Gronk. What they needed to win a Super Bowl was one defensive stop, not an outside receiver.

A middle-deep threat was needed, and Lloyd was brought in, but the Patriots aren't losing Super Bowls and AFCCGs because they're missing one player on offense or there's too much scheme. They're losing games because a combination of factors end up working against them.
 
The Pats offense is broken vs good defenses.

SF (34 points), Balt , Sea, NYG pretty much have their way with the NE offense.

SF: 34 points last game, 30 the game prior
Baltimore: Average 22 points last two years
Seattle: 23, 24, and 30 points last three meetings
NYG: Average 22.5 points since '07 season

Isn't saying that teams do better against bad teams than they do against good teams stating the obvious? If the only game you look at are ones that a team lost, what exactly do you expect to find?
 
Stolen from another forum, but does anyone find it funny that Belichick's defense is predicated on "don't give up the big play, make them grind out 5 first downs to score and let them make mistakes" and then on offense his philosophy appears to be "make Brady churn out first downs, make it as difficult as possible on Brady, and force Brady to play perfect for us to score". Obviously that's not how he would word it but that is what our offense has become. It's become "Brady needs to play perfect every snap of the entire game against any team that is even close to on par with us or we lose the game".

To put it kindly, that's an incredibly misleading interpretation of the Patriots offense. New England was 9th in the NFL in average yards per pass play. They were also 7th in the league in the number of 20+ yard plays.
 
The Pats offense is too dependent on certain personnel. If Gronk is on pace for 17 TDs in a season and is hurt or is neutralized by the other team the Pats have nobody to make up for the loss.

It never used to be that way.

Defenses could take away Branch but they could not prevent the Pats from putting up points. In 2003, NE didnt have a 1000 yard Rusher, a 1000 yard Receiver or a player with double digit TDs. 2003 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com Injuries were never an excuse and as BB says " thats why you have a team."

Mike Vrabel used to catch TD passes.

Points per game scored by the Patriots' offense since 2001:

2001: 39 - 13.0 avg (13 in the SB)
2003: 71 - 23.7 avg (32 in the SB)
2004: 78 - 26.0 avg (24 in the SB)
2005: 41 - 20.5 avg
2006: 81 - 27.0 avg
2007: 66 - 22.0 avg (14 in the SB)
2009: 14 - 14.0 avg
2010: 21 - 21.0 avg
2011: 85 - 28.3 avg (17 in the SB)
2012: 54 - 27.0 avg

So their playoff offense has had its highest scoring playoff runs in this order:

2011 (28.3) - lost the SB
2012 (27.0) - lost in AFCCG
2006 (27.0) - lost in AFCCG
2004 (26.0) - won SB
2003 (23.7) - won SB
2007 (22.0) - lost the SB
2010 (21.0) - lost in divisional round
2005 (20.5) - lost in divisional round
2009 (14.0) - lost in wild card round
2001 (13.0) - won SB

So their 3 highest scoring playoff offenses (on a per-game basis) came in years where they did not win a Super Bowl. And their single worst scoring playoff offense came when they won their first Super Bowl.
 
Points per game scored by the Patriots' offense since 2001:

2001: 39 - 13.0 avg (13 in the SB)
2003: 71 - 23.7 avg (32 in the SB)
2004: 78 - 26.0 avg (24 in the SB)
2005: 41 - 20.5 avg
2006: 81 - 27.0 avg
2007: 66 - 22.0 avg (14 in the SB)
2009: 14 - 14.0 avg
2010: 21 - 21.0 avg
2011: 85 - 28.3 avg (17 in the SB)
2012: 54 - 27.0 avg

So their playoff offense has had its highest scoring playoff runs in this order:

2011 (28.3) - lost the SB
2012 (27.0) - lost in AFCCG
2006 (27.0) - lost in AFCCG
2004 (26.0) - won SB
2003 (23.7) - won SB
2007 (22.0) - lost the SB
2010 (21.0) - lost in divisional round
2005 (20.5) - lost in divisional round
2009 (14.0) - lost in wild card round
2001 (13.0) - won SB

So their 3 highest scoring playoff offenses (on a per-game basis) came in years where they did not win a Super Bowl. And their single worst scoring playoff offense came when they won their first Super Bowl.

This skews things a bit they hung up HUGE point numbers in 1 game and were basically inept in the other games (Baltimore 2011, Giants 2011, Baltimore 2012). Those teams had a LEGIT top 5 defense or top 10 this one is a bottom dweller without Talib and Jones. There's a lot of problems one is the lack of a real good outside receiver. There's tons of problems on the defensive side. It's a lot of problems like Deus said.
 
This skews things a bit they hung up HUGE point numbers in 1 game and were basically inept in the other games (Baltimore 2011, Giants 2011, Baltimore 2012). Those teams had a LEGIT top 5 defense or top 10 this one is a bottom dweller without Talib and Jones. There's a lot of problems one is the lack of a real good outside receiver. There's tons of problems on the defensive side. It's a lot of problems like Deus said.

I don't disagree with you at all. But the reality is that their first Super Bowl was won with a very lax offensive effort. I mean, 39 points scored by the offense in three games? They relied SO much on defense, special teams, and, frankly, good fortune, to accomplish that feat.

I've argued numerous times on this board that what's largely separated the Pats from winning the SB and losing it has been the bounce of a football, and not really anything more than that.

I just pointed out those numbers to show that it isn't like their offense during the SB-winning seasons was this unstoppable juggernaut.
 
In 2011, the Patriots had the lead with just minutes left in the Super Bowl. They reached that point without Lloyd and with a hobbled Gronk. What they needed to win a Super Bowl was one defensive stop, not an outside receiver.

A middle-deep threat was needed, and Lloyd was brought in, but the Patriots aren't losing Super Bowls and AFCCGs because they're missing one player on offense or there's too much scheme. They're losing games because a combination of factors end up working against them.

You could also say the defense was good enough and the offense was at fault for not putting away the game earlier.

Despite recent Super Bowl history most games do not come down to one last drive that defines the outcome.
 
These universally good WRs cost more money and higher picks than the scheme fits. Where are you cutting resources in order to get better WRs?

I thought I explained pretty blatantly the plan is to replace Welker and use the resources we had in him with a guy who fits the scheme better. Weren't you the one harping how Welker was a poor fit for the scheme a couple years ago?

Welker is an elite receiver but having three elite guys who thrive in the same portion of the field is a waste of resources. My theoretical plan is replace Welker with someone not as good as him overall but is better than him outside the numbers, has better breakaway speed (this qualifier is basically anyone in the NFL), and costs less. Then use the rest of that money on defense or depth on the OL.
 
You could also say the defense was good enough and the offense was at fault for not putting away the game earlier.

Despite recent Super Bowl history most games do not come down to one last drive that defines the outcome.

Exactly. Just look at the Ravens. They scored over 30 in all of their playoff games IIRC. This is with Joe Flacco at the helm and Rice being the only player that comes close to the talent of Hernandez and Welker.

The Patriots in SB42 had a devastating combination of injuries occur so I'll give them a pass, but this past SB we should have been able to overcome the singular injury to Gronkowski. In the dynasty years we were able to. That SB and this past year we were not able to. Why? Because no other skill player can physically dominate an opposing coverman. Givens, Thomas, etc. weren't fast or explosive, but were strong and reliable and new how to get open. Welker is great at getting separation but he's not very strong, and Hernandez is Finley-soft. Branch and Lloyd are both made of glass and could get tossed around by a 16 year old.
 
I think the scheme where gronk is healthy gets us two Super bowls. How many high scoring teams can overcome the loss of their "far and above" best receiver on offense? I think we need a speed receiver and maybe that would have offset the loss, but not losing your best player would work better.

Lots of teams now are trying to employ a similar gronk, Hernandez offense and are only missing the ability to clone Gronk and Hernandez.

The difference between this team and the championship teams is a defense in their prime, and that simply takes time, if you have the right players. In the mean time, we need to score to win and losing your best weapon makes the defenses job easier.
 
Everyone can try, only defenses with the right personnel can pull it off. And those defenses are usually pretty good.

It is dependent on talent. See: 49ers, who had had decent coverage and amazing pressure up front until Justin Smith went down. And we all saw how far their D fell once Mankins gave him a boo boo.

Same old argument, we always lose to similar defenses, then when it is pointed out the defenses aren't similar, it becomes 'good defenses'. Then when its pointed out we beat good defenses too, its injuries, matchups, blah, blah, blah.
The end result is its not the same thing and making 100 exceptions, rationalizations and qualificiations just goes to prove it.
 
The Pats offense is too dependent on certain personnel. If Gronk is on pace for 17 TDs in a season and is hurt or is neutralized by the other team the Pats have nobody to make up for the loss.

It never used to be that way.

Defenses could take away Branch but they could not prevent the Pats from putting up points. In 2003, NE didnt have a 1000 yard Rusher, a 1000 yard Receiver or a player with double digit TDs. 2003 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com Injuries were never an excuse and as BB says " thats why you have a team."

Mike Vrabel used to catch TD passes.

So we shouldn't have good players because then we rely on them too much, and when we didn't have good players we had a worse offense but won because the defense was better, so lets change the offense, make it worse, then it won't rely on good players, and we can win because of defense again. Wait, the defense isn't good...............
 
The Patriots had the no.1 offense in football this past regular season. If its not broken don't fix it imo.

For years we enjoyed pointing out to Colts fans that it's how one does in the PLAYOFFS that matters, yet we now forget that truth because we're just like they were.
 
You could also say the defense was good enough and the offense was at fault for not putting away the game earlier.

No, you couldn't. Well, more accurately, you [highlight]could[/highlight] say that, but it would be false and an example of arguing against the plain evidence.
 
The Pats offense is broken vs good defenses.

SF, Balt, Sea, NYG pretty much have their way with the NE offense.

Especially with SF, I'd say "have their way with" isn't the right phrase.
 
Especially with SF, I'd say "have their way with" isn't the right phrase.

I'd also consider putting up 30 down in BAL earlier in the season pretty effective, especially without Hernandez.

Going to the hardest on the road stadium in the NFL at SEA wasn't too bad either, considering they had a 23-10 lead with 7 min remaining, and lost out on the easy FG with the 10 sec runoff at the end of the half.

That leaves reasonable arguments for SF, and SEA.

BAL and the NYG slow us down, but they also won vs BAL in the AFCCG last year, and then scored 30 on them in the reg season. They also went on a 17-0 streak vs the NYG in the SB, and were winning the past 3 losses against them in the final 2-3 min...

That's about what I take from it. There are a couple of good defenses that slow us down.
 
Especially with SF, I'd say "have their way with" isn't the right phrase.

But they are a good defense, so they have to have or the argument doesn't work.
Therefore they must only be a good defense because of 1 guy who was hurt and otherwise suck.
Of course Houston doesn't count either because even though they were better this year than 12 Ravens or 11 Giants, they don't count. I forget the reason for that excuse? Matchups maybe?
So when we have a bad game that defines the defense as good, and when we have a good game against a better defense that is just cause we match up well, we didn't actually do anything.
Are you getting this?
 
Those defenses didn't play the same style.
Since the game the Jets supposedly created the 'blueprint' we have scored 30,37,29,49 against them.
If 'every time a team plays that style we are stopped cold' why did the Jets decided to stop playing that style so they could lose 4 straight and allow 36.3 ppg against us?


Regarding the Jets - I made a point and clearly wrote "one time", I never said the lowly Jets created the blueprint to stop us...no way, they played one really good game at just the right time. Take a look back (if your stomach can take it) at that game and remember, we were within 3 points starting the 4th quarter having overcome a stupid fake punt call, mental errors etc. Yet, they did manage to hold us to 21 points and sacked brady 5 times.

The "style" that I see succeed against is usually heavy pressure, usually up the middle while the secondary is clogging the middle at the same time. The first time I recall seeing it was Ravens Monday night game in 2007, that was the game where the great catch by Gaffney bailed us out. That was followed by the regular season game vs the Giants in the Meadowlands, yes we won, but that game gave the Giants the confidence and realization that their system and match ups on defense were favorable for them. While the game was decided by a fluke catch, questionable calls and flat out dumb luck, they way their defense played us enabled them to be in a position to win that game.

Next up was Ravens trouncing us at Gillette knocking us out of the playoffs, followed by yet another Giant win in a superbowl (after we barely snuck by the Ravens)and finally, of course, this years loss in the AFC championship game.

High powered offenses need to score points...we haven't been able to do that against these two teams and it has cost us dearly.

Starting with the game in 2007 against the ravens we played them 7 times winning four of them....however, our average points comes out to 22.5.

Against the Giants since the 2007 game we have played them four times, winning only once and our average points came out to 22.3.

It just seems obvious to me that we have simply not been able to play well enough and score enough points (22 hasn't cut it) to overcome the "style" manifested by pressure and coverage as I described above, in particular against the Giants & Ravens.
 
Regarding the Jets - I made a point and clearly wrote "one time", I never said the lowly Jets created the blueprint to stop us...no way, they played one really good game at just the right time.
But thats exactly my point. You (and others) say every time a team plays a certain style against us they stop us. Since the Jets were the start of that thinking, if it were true, they would continue playing that style.
The argument has now become listing the teams/games we didn't play well and pretending they are similar teams with similar approaches and they simply aren't.


Take a look back (if your stomach can take it) at that game and remember, we were within 3 points starting the 4th quarter having overcome a stupid fake punt call, mental errors etc. Yet, they did manage to hold us to 21 points and sacked brady 5 times.
Thats a game, not proof a style that owns us.

The "style" that I see succeed against is usually heavy pressure, usually up the middle while the secondary is clogging the middle at the same time.
Thats not really a style, that is a team effectively pass rushing. The clogging the middle is a gratuitious throw in.


The first time I recall seeing it was Ravens Monday night game in 2007, that was the game where the great catch by Gaffney bailed us out.
The Ravens didn't play the scheme the Jets did in 10, they gambled, took chances, held on every play, and hoped to get big plays. The Jets plan was to drop up to 8 in coverage and hit after the catch.


That was followed by the regular season game vs the Giants in the Meadowlands, yes we won, but that game gave the Giants the confidence and realization that their system and match ups on defense were favorable for them.
Didnt we score 38 points?


While the game was decided by a fluke catch,
Fluke? What catch was a fluke?

questionable calls and flat out dumb luck, they way their defense played us enabled them to be in a position to win that game.
Umm, no their offense kept them in the game. Their defense barely slowed us down. We had 400 yards of offense, 38 points, and Brady was 32-42-356 with 0 ints and was sacked once.
If the Giants confidence was based on how they 'handled' our offense in that game, they wouldn't have shown up for the SB.

Next up was Ravens trouncing us at Gillette knocking us out of the playoffs, followed by yet another Giant win in a superbowl (after we barely snuck by the Ravens)and finally, of course, this years loss in the AFC championship game.
So you have named the losses. I agree we lost those games. You have done nothing to show a trend of how, or what teams do to beat us. You can't because it isn't there.

High powered offenses need to score points...we haven't been able to do that against these two teams and it has cost us dearly.
Every offense needs to score points.
You make it like a great offense that scores less against a good team is worse than having a bad offense that scores less against good teams, because everyone scores less against good teams, after all.

Starting with the game in 2007 against the ravens we played them 7 times winning four of them....however, our average points comes out to 22.5.
Because they are historically a good defense. Do you expect us to score more against good teams? How much have they allowed per game?
They allowed 18 ppg over those years, so we exceeded what they allow by 25%.
Conversely, we scored 31 per game over that time, which means we averaged
27% less vs them than our average.
So in other words, when we faced a good D we beat what they allow by almost exactly the same amount as they cut what we score. So, there is no abnormal difference here.


Against the Giants since the 2007 game we have played them four times, winning only once and our average points came out to 22.3.
So, the Giants beat us 3 out of 4.
What does that have to do with your argument. The Giants play a very different style of defense than either the Jets or Ravens. In fact, the Giants had different coordinators in 07 and 11 and a bunch of different players.


It just seems obvious to me that we have simply not been able to play well enough and score enough points (22 hasn't cut it) to overcome the "style" manifested by pressure and coverage as I described above, in particular against the Giants & Ravens.
We have had games where we don't score a lot of points.
The teams you are pulling out a handful of games over a 6 year stretch are not similar at all.
They do not cover the same as each other, they do not generate pressure the same. Hell, some of those games (including this year) had absolutely nothing to so with pass rush.

Sometimes other teams play good defense. Sometimes they score more points than we do.
There really are no other similarities.
 
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