Patriots Offense - 2006 - run versus pass distribution

[cstjohn17]

It looks like we will have a more balanced offense than last year. I think we will have to score points to help the defense which does not appear to be as strong as years past. I am interested in opinions on an ideal breakdown of run versus pass and who will be catching the ball.

Using 2004, the Patriots best offensive year, as a barometer I came up with the following projection for 2006. Being conservative, even without Branch, this should be a very good offense. With Branch add 400 more passing yards add 1 PPG, his presence will decrease the number of touches for other players.

2006 - Projections
26.5 PPG
Spilt - 470/ 475 = .99 ratio pass to run

Passing
300/470, 63.8% - 3700 yards
Caldwell 30, Brown 30, Gabriel 40. Jackson 20, Branch ???, Childress 10, Smith 5, Watson 40, Graham 25, Mills 5, Thomas 15, Faulk 35, Dillion 15, Maroney 20, Others 10

Rushing
475\1900 yards, 4 ypc
180 -Maroney - 750 yards, 200- Dillion - 750 yards (hopefully a lot of clock killing), 70 Faulk - 300 yards, 30 various - 100 yards

----------------------------- Historical Stats - Offense ---------------------------------
2005 - 23.7 PPG
Spilt - 530/ 434 = 1.22 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 334/530 = 63%, 4322 yards
- Rushing - 434/1513, 3.5 YPC (Dillion 733, Faulk 245)

2004 - 27.3 PPG
Spilt - 474/ 524 = .90 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 288/474 =60.8%, 3750 yards
- Rushing - 524/2134, 4.1 (Dillion 1635, Faulk 235)

2003 -21.75 PPG
Spilt - 527/ 466 = 1.13 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 317/527 = 60.2%, 3561 yards
- Rushing - 466/1617, 3.5 YPC (Antowain Smith 642, Faulk 638)

2002 - 23.8 PPG
Spilt - 601/ 473 = 1.27 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 373/601 =62.1%, 3767 yards
- Rushing - 473/1793, 3.8 YPC (Antowain Smith 1157, Faulk 169)

2001 - 23.2 PPG
Spilt - 413/ 395 = 1.05 ratio pass to run
- Passing - 264/413 =63.9%, 3053 yards
- Rushing - 395/1508, 3.8 YPC (Antowain Smith 982, Faulk 271)

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm not a playcall second guesser but I sure hope we can run more and then run more playaction off of it. Some game near the end of last year they showed stats of Brady's QB rating off play action and not off play action and it was SICK how great he was off of play action - but the percentage of attempts off play action was lower than in 2004.

Hopefully a strong running game will lead to more play action and an even better Brady in 2006.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I can't speak to your actual methodology, but looking at your WR numbers it looks to me like you're nicely conservative.

You give Caldwell his career high of 30 receptions - but that's not an unreasonable goal - even though when he was signed many here projected him in the 50 - 60 category easy. I prefer to look at past performance as an indiciation of future performance so 30 is about right.

If I have some doubt as to whether Caldwell can even catch 30 I'd say that you are underestimating what even an older Troy Brown can do. If Las Vegas set 30 as the over/under for Troy I'd take over 30 in a heartbeat.

Gabriel at 40 - I'm willing to take that on faith right now and give the guy the benefit of the doubt. Low #2 numbers is a good goal for him.

Keeping Branch out the equation for now is smart as well.

Generally though,our #1 and #2 WRs get the majority of playing time and you're suggesting a situation which might require more WRs on the active roster each game- which might not be possible.

Given that we've lost 50+ passes from Givens and 70+ passes from Branch as of now and while our TEs will make up some of that, defenses will doubleteam Watson before long and the WRs will have to hold their own.