Patriots May Need to Get Creative on Brady's Next Contract

[PatsFans.com Article]

Ian's Daily Blog - Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is heading into the final year of his contract, and while one would have to believe that a contract extension should be in the works, a report on the NFL Network Friday morning certainly raises an eyebrow.As fans in New England know, Brady has never been a guy who demanded to [...]

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[PATSYLICIOUS]

Man, NFLN pulled a quick one on me yesterday! I'm flipping channels and I see they are showing clips of Brady and at the bottom it says "Brady signed extension of 6 years $60M........" and I was like that is so cheap!!:rocker: Then after a brief celebration I look back at the screen and read the rest "......... through 2010" and thats when reality set in. What's the point of even talking about that extention NOW. You can just say his contract is running out after the season instead of messing with my half reading *** like that

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Actually I don't think it will be that hard. His Salary is only $5M, but he also has a $3M roster bonus that was paid in March and not amortized. Ergo his "salary" for 30% purposes is $8M per and therefore his salary could increase by $2.4M per year over the life of his extension. Do that and add in a $20M signing bonus and a $10M 2011 option bonus and you have a 5 year extension that pays him $105M over the next 6 seasons. About a $17M+ average. And you can always add one more dummy year on at the end to make it a 6 year extension paying over $120M over the next 7... and really fluff up the incentives. More than his wannabe peers by a million or two and less than Paymeaton by a million or two. I doubt Manning will get $20M, chatter always over projects this stuff and had Eli poised for that too, probably closer to $18M+.

The concern for the team is flexibility, they probably hate being dictated to and that is what the 30% rule essentially does structure wise. And the fact that they will have to load up on signing/option bonus money on top of hefty salary within a 9 month or so period during which **** can happen including a lockout... However they will likely be able to restructure some of these deals once a new CBA is agreed upon or there is no more CBA beyond what the owners decide the rules will be while the union decertifies and heads to court for 3-4 years to hash it out... The concern for Brady has to be that any split or second signing bonus can't be guaranteed except against injury so if there is a lockout before it's due he won't see it until they resume play...

I think in a perfect world they would have preferred to deal with all this in 2008, but **** happened then, too... The owners opted out and triggered all this expiring CBA crap and we know what else then transpired... the bad thing that reminds you of the reality of risk.

 

[eom]

I think on the plus side brady's character is a known commodity --- it's not like they're rolling the dice on giving offthemarkus russell a ton of dough up front.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think on the plus side brady's character is a known commodity --- it's not like they're rolling the dice on giving offthemarkus russell a ton of dough up front.

I'm sure they know that. It's the giving him $40M or so in front money over the next less than 12 months on top of the money they just paid to Vince that has to give you pause simply because of the potential injury risk. If you give that kind of dough to two guys and lose them it can be devastating not only short term but long term... They have always tried to layer their bonus money payments in a way that no two big ticket guys are carrying a lot of it in the same season...

 

[BSR]

I might be naive in thinking this but in the case of Brady and the Pats, I think both sides know how important one is to the other. Its more like a marriage then a buisness relationship and as such I think a sensible deal will just get done with little hoopla or fanfare. He'll still end up being paid top 5 money, just not the top. At this point I am not worried one bit.

 

[Ring 6]

I suppose a reason for waiting is to see whether the new cba will change those rules and allow a 'less creative' deal.

 

[upstater1]

Does the 30% rule even apply here? The Patriots can close out the year and give Brady a deal that will count before the next year officially starts, and we'll likely still be uncapped.

Plus, the 30% rule should refer to the average payout over the length of the contract, not the salary in the last year. if it referred to the salary in the last year, then players would have incentive to take less up front. It makes no sense.

I don't think the 30% is in play at all.

I bet the Patriots could frontload a contract in an uncapped year.

 

[Ring 6]

Does the 30% rule even apply here? The Patriots can close out the year and give Brady a deal that will count before the next year officially starts, and we'll likely still be uncapped.

Plus, the 30% rule should refer to the average payout over the length of the contract, not the salary in the last year. if it referred to the salary in the last year, then players would have incentive to take less up front. It makes no sense.

I don't think the 30% is in play at all.

I bet the Patriots could frontload a contract in an uncapped year.

I think it applies to an extension but would not to a brand new contract starting in 2011, which would be after Brady is UFA.
And by that I mean applying with respect to the 2010 salary.

 

[Patspsycho]

Does the 30% rule even apply here? The Patriots can close out the year and give Brady a deal that will count before the next year officially starts, and we'll likely still be uncapped.

Plus, the 30% rule should refer to the average payout over the length of the contract, not the salary in the last year. if it referred to the salary in the last year, then players would have incentive to take less up front. It makes no sense.

I don't think the 30% is in play at all.

I bet the Patriots could frontload a contract in an uncapped year.

How 49ers circumvented the 30-percent rule | National Football Post

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Does the 30% rule even apply here? The Patriots can close out the year and give Brady a deal that will count before the next year officially starts, and we'll likely still be uncapped.

Plus, the 30% rule should refer to the average payout over the length of the contract, not the salary in the last year. if it referred to the salary in the last year, then players would have incentive to take less up front. It makes no sense.

I don't think the 30% is in play at all.

I bet the Patriots could frontload a contract in an uncapped year.

It does apply here and it is in play and it was done this way to deliberately make it difficult to frontload extensions in anticipation of a one year get out of cap jail free card.

Once you close out a year it is closed and nothing you do counts against it, it counts against the future years. And that isn't a solution since it requires Brady to absorb the entire risk of playing the 2010 season for $8M in the last year of his 6 year $60M deal when his so called peers are in deals now averaging $15M...

The only way to frontload a deal for Brady in an uncapped 2010 is to make him a FA. That may be a tad too radical an approach...although they got away with it twice with Tully Banta Cain in the last six months...

Brady's deal can still be done, it just won't be the deal they had hoped to structure to suit their own model. Or one some fans crave that makes Brady a relative freeby for the remainder of his career...It is likely however that in a year or two they will again be able to restructure deals to better suit their needs. The only problem with that will be they won't be able to restructure the treatment of the signing bonus moneys since once paid those are automatically amortized over the length of the deal and nothing can change that. That is why I wouldn't be surprised to see them go very short or excessively long with Brady. Option one would require another extension in a year or two which Brady might balk at since there is no guarantee they commit as much under that scenario. Option two would give them dummy/voidable years even including a year after he "retires" to spread the restructured hits into. Basically, the Polian approach. Technically Manning's deal was to run through 2012, and Polian has dumped some roster bonus money restructured into signing bonus and then amortized, into those basically non existent years even knowing they would be voided. Those hits however will carry over into his new deal, atop the hits that new deal generates, because as I said amortization never gets moved (unless the player retires or is released in which case (except for under an uncapped scenario) the charges accelerate into the last year or two following his departure.

As for there not being a cap in 2011, if they play there will be because that's the only way ownership will approve a new deal. Fixed labor costs are the little engine that has driven the NFL franchise values train for the last 15 years not to mention the have nots still number more than enough to scuttle any deal that favors the haves. Ditto for the rookies having a contract cap... If a new CBA can't be agreed upon before the start of the new league year in early March, there will either be a lockout - in which case nobody's getting paid - or the union will decertify thereby making the last offer on the table from management (which will clearly contain a salary cap and rookie contract cap and a lower percentage of gross dedicated to union members) the defacto CBA during the next couple of years while the union attempts to challenge rules/terms they don't want (or even the anti-trust status of the league) via the courts.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I'll leave it to those who understand capology much better than I do to discuss those topics and will accept the opinion of whoever seems most well informed, until Miguel says otherwise.

But, putting that aside, just for a moment, if Peyton ends up with a deal that's worth around $20 per year, as Ian's article suggests, and if Eli-of-the-magic-helmet is getting around $15, if Carson Palmer is playing out a nine year deal worth around $13 a year and if various others are making silly money considering what they've done, how much is Tom Brady worth?

Let's be hardnosed and acknowledge that he'll be 33 when this season starts, that he's had a major injury and taken a lot of hits, but also let's put aside the sentimentality that says he should "take one for the team" to the tune of tens of millions of dollars.

Personally, I think he's worth every dime that a 34 year old Manning is worth, despite Manning's superior stats over his career.

But, the Pats just don't pay top dollar for skill positions, so, what's the right number? Capology aside, a 10% discount off of Manning would put him at $18. That takes $10 million out of his pocket over five years, but still puts him well above Eli and probably around where Brees will end up. It likely means he isn't the highest paid, but among the top three. In exchange for that, of course, he can reasonably expect that the Pats will surround him with the weapons he needs to win again "now," i.e., in the next two or three years.

What do you think?

 

[ALP]

how much do u think brady wants? I would say 13 mil a year would satisfy him....

 

[upstater1]

Wouldn't the base for the 30% bump be the average value of the contract? That would make more sense.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Wouldn't the base for the 30% bump be the average value of the contract? That would make more sense.

It wasn't designed to make sense. It was designed to make it difficult to frontload contracts in an uncapped year.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

how much do u think brady wants? I would say 13 mil a year would satisfy him....

Not on your life. Brady's good, he's not foolish. He doesn't need to be the top paid player at the position. I'm not even sure Manning "needs" that, but his Agent (Tom Condon) does so he goes along as long as Polian and Irsay don't grouse about it. But Tommy knows he's more than earned the right to remain among the top 3. Maximizing legacy matters to him just a little more than maximizing career earnings does. But don't ever confuse that with not giving a **** whether or not he gets paid reasonably.

When he was negotiating his last deal they quickly agreed on the parameters and average. Then they hit a snag because the team wanted to split his $26.5M bonus into an unheard of 4 segments... He politely said NO. The team was reportedly surprised because he'd been so easy to deal with on the overall deal they apparently presumed incorrectly he was a doormat. Shortly thereafter the deal was announced with a split signing/option bonus payable in two installments due in the first and second year of the deal.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'll leave it to those who understand capology much better than I do to discuss those topics and will accept the opinion of whoever seems most well informed, until Miguel says otherwise.

But, putting that aside, just for a moment, if Peyton ends up with a deal that's worth around $20 per year, as Ian's article suggests, and if Eli-of-the-magic-helmet is getting around $15, if Carson Palmer is playing out a nine year deal worth around $13 a year and if various others are making silly money considering what they've done, how much is Tom Brady worth?

Let's be hardnosed and acknowledge that he'll be 33 when this season starts, that he's had a major injury and taken a lot of hits, but also let's put aside the sentimentality that says he should "take one for the team" to the tune of tens of millions of dollars.

Personally, I think he's worth every dime that a 34 year old Manning is worth, despite Manning's superior stats over his career.

But, the Pats just don't pay top dollar for skill positions, so, what's the right number? Capology aside, a 10% discount off of Manning would put him at $18. That takes $10 million out of his pocket over five years, but still puts him well above Eli and probably around where Brees will end up. It likely means he isn't the highest paid, but among the top three. In exchange for that, of course, he can reasonably expect that the Pats will surround him with the weapons he needs to win again "now," i.e., in the next two or three years.

What do you think?

I don't think Manning will actually reach the magic $20M AAV mark, but for the rest I essentially agree although the differential may be a little less than 10%.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Not on your life. Brady's good, he's not foolish. He doesn't need to be the top paid player at the position. I'm not even sure Manning "needs" that, but his Agent (Tom Condon) does so he goes along as long as Polian and Irsay don't grouse about it. But Tommy knows he's more than earned the right to remain among the top 3. Maximizing legacy matters to him just a little more than maximizing career earnings does. But don't ever confuse that with not giving a **** whether or not he gets paid reasonably.

When he was negotiating his last deal they quickly agreed on the parameters and average. Then they hit a snag because the team wanted to split his $26.5M bonus into an unheard of 4 segments... He politely said NO. The team was reportedly surprised because he'd been so easy to deal with on the overall deal they apparently presumed incorrectly he was a doormat. Shortly thereafter the deal was announced with a split signing/option bonus payable in two installments due in the first and second year of the deal.

I agree. I get amazed sometimes out here at how quickly people give away Tom Brady's money. Like you, I see him taking 5--10% off of Peyton's number; a "discount" to stay around an organization that he admires, but not a "give away" where he's sacrificing tens of millions in "current dollars" and what those dollars could earn for him.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

how much do u think brady wants? I would say 13 mil a year would satisfy him....

I disagree. Tom Brady is dedicated to the Pats, but he's not dumb. If Peyton gets $18--20, Brady will get $16--18. Over a five year period, that's around $10 million in "giveback."

 

[patsinthesnow]

Brady deserves to be paid the minimum as the 3rd best QB in the league. Is that 15mil a year about?