I thought this was going to be complicated but it's not. Pats and jets split so head to head is out. If the jets beat Buffalo and Miami, Jets win due to superior division record. If it goes to the second tiebreaker (common games), Patriots win. Here's why. There are only two games for each team that do not involve common opponents: Cincinnati and Tennessee for the jets; Indianapolis and Pittsburgh for NE. Since the jets have already won both games and the Patriots have already lost to the Colts, the Patriots would have to have a better record in the remaining games (i.e., the games against common oppponents) under any scenario involving the second tiebreaker.