Patriots in playoffs, with top 7th ranked rushing and passing offense?

[mesoslo]

I was listening to PFW in progress on wednesday and the guys on the show mentioned about how BB seems to be happier and up beat. It got me thinking, of the remaining games, if you dont count the this week's game agaisnt the steelers, the patriots face, the seahawks(30th ranked pass defense, 22th ranked rush defense), the raiders(29th ranked rush defense, 10th ranked pass defense), the cardinals(17th ranked pass defense, 8th ranked rush defense, the bills(20th ranked rush defense, 16th ranked pass defense).

Now if the patriots win out and Cassel continues to turn out +300 yard passing games until the end of the season, including the game agasint the steelers with the #1 ranked defense. The patriots could very well go into the playoffs with a top 7 rushing and passing offense in the league.
The patriots a team who started early in this season without their #1 QB Tom Brady,and 1st round pick RB Maroney, goes into the playoffs with the top 7 rushing and passing offense, has to be a really well coached team. In Bill we trust.
If the patriots do go into the playoffs with the top 7 ranked pass and rush offense, supported by a bend but dont break BB defense with a front seven that can stop the run very well, combine with Matt Cassel the best kept secret in the NFL that other teams have very little game film on, the patriots will be a pretty scary team to face.

 

[slash83]

I was listening to PFW in progress on wednesday and the guys on the show mentioned about how BB seems to be happier and up beat. It got me thinking, of the remaining games, if you dont count the this week's game agaisnt the steelers, the patriots face, the seahawks(30th ranked pass defense, 22th ranked rush defense), the raiders(29th ranked rush defense, 10th ranked pass defense), the cardinals(17th ranked pass defense, 8th ranked rush defense, the bills(20th ranked rush defense, 16th ranked pass defense).

Now if the patriots win out and Cassel continues to turn out +300 yard passing games until the end of the season, including the game agasint the steelers with the #1 ranked defense. The patriots could very well go into the playoffs with a top 7 rushing and passing offense in the league.
The patriots a team who started early in this season without their #1 QB Tom Brady,and 1st round pick RB Maroney, goes into the playoffs with the top 7 rushing and passing offense, has to be a really well coached team. In Bill we trust.
If the patriots do go into the playoffs with the top 7 ranked pass and rush offense, supported by a bend but dont break BB defense with a front seven that can stop the run very well, combine with Matt Cassel the best kept secret in the NFL that other teams have very little game film on, the patriots will be a pretty scary team to face.

I think the run defense is good, its the pass denfense thats not very good IMO.

 

[mesoslo]

the pass defense is not great, but its not ranked super horrible. Keep in mind that the patriots went into this season knowing that the secondary will take a few lumps a long the way. Its the offense that keeps the patriots a going and BB defensive coaching talent that prevents the patriots from sinking.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Lot of if's in your original comment. I would prefer to play each game, one at a time, instead of comparing ourselves to future opponents now. Injuries happen, on both sides, that effect who and how you play each game.

 

[mesoslo]

The guys on PFW in progress has mentioned before that BB can be grumpy often. One time Paul on PFW in progress was in the elevator with a pizza and BB came into the elevator, paul said hi to BB, then BB replied, "dont you guys ever work?" So now that I hear that BB is happy and upbeat, I think its because BB is holding Aces. Or maybe BB is just happy that he has kept Cassel on his roster for so long and now it justifies it.

 

[matt1073]

The guys on PFW in progress has mentioned before that BB can be grumpy often. One time Paul on PFW in progress was in the elevator with a pizza and BB came into the elevator, paul said hi to BB, then BB replied, "dont you guys ever work?" So now that I hear that BB is happy and upbeat, I think its because BB is holding Aces. Or maybe BB is just happy that he has kept Cassel on his roster for so long and now it justifies it.

LOL that funny

 

[dtbrks]

the pass defense is not great, but its not ranked super horrible. Keep in mind that the patriots went into this season knowing that the secondary will take a few lumps a long the way. Its the offense that keeps the patriots a going and BB defensive coaching talent that prevents the patriots from sinking.

while the overal pass defense isn't great, the 3rd down and redzone defense is awful.. if they can't improve these numbers then the playoffs aren't guaranteed.

Third-down defense
59 of 134 (44 percent)
NFL rank: 27th

Red-zone defense (based on TD percentage)
22 of 33 (66.7 percent)
NFL rank: 31st

 

[mesoslo]

Well hopefully because the patriots have a great front 7, rushing TDs from the redzone will be a lot harder, so maybe teams will opt for throwing it in, which might lead to INTs.

The patriots are probally bad at 3rd down defense because of their bad pass defense.
I would be really worried if their pass and run defense were ranked lower than 15th, and their 3rd down defense and redzone defense were ranked 27th and 31st.

Its kinda werid, the patriots are ranked 13th in rush defense and 18th in pass defense, yet their 3rd down defense is a horrible 27th.

 

[sieglo]

I think there's a chance that BB is playing this year like a rebuild year and the success they've had so far actually surprises him. Nothing else could explain not picking up a Law or Colvin in FA, other than that the idea is to get rookies valuable experience this year in prep for next.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

The guys on PFW in progress has mentioned before that BB can be grumpy often. One time Paul on PFW in progress was in the elevator with a pizza and BB came into the elevator, paul said hi to BB, then BB replied, "dont you guys ever work?" So now that I hear that BB is happy and upbeat, I think its because BB is holding Aces. Or maybe BB is just happy that he has kept Cassel on his roster for so long and now it justifies it.

Maybe BB just got laid

 

[Sicilian]

while the overal pass defense isn't great, the 3rd down and redzone defense is awful.. if they can't improve these numbers then the playoffs aren't guaranteed.

Third-down defense
59 of 134 (44 percent)
NFL rank: 27th

Red-zone defense (based on TD percentage)
22 of 33 (66.7 percent)
NFL rank: 31st

I beg to differ. The overall pass defense is pretty bad too. The reason it looks better is because they tend to rank by total yards, where our 215 per game is 18th, middle of the pack.

However, our 7.84 yards per pass attempt allowed is good for 29th in the league. The reason we don't give up as many total yards is because our offense tends to sustain long drives and control the clock.

For that matter, our 4.0 ypc allowed is only 15th in the league, so while our run defense has looked good at times, we're only middle of the road overall there as well.

I think the D has a chance to get better (or just get hot at the right time), but right now there really is no strong suit for the defense that you can point to and say, "That's why this defense will excel in the playoffs."

 

[stinkypete]

I beg to differ. The overall pass defense is pretty bad too. The reason it looks better is because they tend to rank by total yards, where our 215 per game is 18th, middle of the pack.

However, our 7.84 yards per pass attempt allowed is good for 29th in the league. The reason we don't give up as many total yards is because our offense tends to sustain long drives and control the clock.

For that matter, our 4.0 ypc allowed is only 15th in the league, so while our run defense has looked good at times, we're only middle of the road overall there as well.

I think the D has a chance to get better (or just get hot at the right time), but right now there really is no strong suit for the defense that you can point to and say, "That's why this defense will excel in the playoffs."

I am shocked that the pass defense is statistically ranked in the middle of the pack. I think it has been shockingly bad at times. We have given up big games to some stinker offenses, and the 3rd and long pass defense has been the worst of the BB era.

 

[Sicilian]

I am shocked that the pass defense is statistically ranked in the middle of the pack. I think it has been shockingly bad at times. We have given up big games to some stinker offenses, and the 3rd and long pass defense has been the worst of the BB era.

Yeah, like I said, it's deceptive because when people in the mainstream say, "18th ranked pass defense." They're counting yards per game. Going by yards per attempt is a much different story, and one I find more accurate because it isn't affected much by how long the offense controls the ball.

 

[Rob0729]

while the overal pass defense isn't great, the 3rd down and redzone defense is awful.. if they can't improve these numbers then the playoffs aren't guaranteed.

Third-down defense
59 of 134 (44 percent)
NFL rank: 27th

Red-zone defense (based on TD percentage)
22 of 33 (66.7 percent)
NFL rank: 31st

I think those stats are the key stats. Third down efficiency on both sides of the ball is the most underrated stat in football, while the one the NFL uses to rank teams including rushing and passing offenses and defenses(total yards) may be one of the more overrated. I think most team's success on both sides of the ball really depends on how successful they are on third downs. Can you keep drives alive consistently on offense and can you kill drives on defense?

For the Pats to have a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl, the defense needs to improve quite a bit in the two areas described. You cannot have a bend, but don't break defense and break 2 out of every 3 time the opposing offense gets in the red zone.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I think there's a chance that BB is playing this year like a rebuild year and the success they've had so far actually surprises him. Nothing else could explain not picking up a Law or Colvin in FA, other than that the idea is to get rookies valuable experience this year in prep for next.

That is a very cogent observation that I have also been maintaining for quite a while. It is not just those two people either. He let Hobson go, and never called Seau in. He kept all the youngsters and cut many of the secondary vets he brought in. He hasn't feared to play the youngsters either. Mayo, Guyton, Woods, at LB and Meriwether, Wheatley, Whilite, Richardson have seen extensive playing time. Even on the Defensive line, the reserves have been getting snaps to both rest the starters, and give them experience.

BB started rebuilding his Defense in the off-season and on the fly. He didn't expect that he would be playing a new QB too, and he has developed Matt Cassel too. Still the Team is near the top ten in production despite the youth and inexperience. I predict that it will be awesome next year and subsequently, with more experience and a further infusion of talent. Meanwhile enjoy a winning season and see how far it goes, while BB rebuilds.

 

[mesoslo]

Third down efficiency on both sides of the ball is the most underrated stat in football

I think 1st and 2nd down efficiency is more important. I would rather worry more about getting on 1st base or hit a double and get to 2nd base before I worry about 3rd base. And besides your opponent has just as much pressure converting 3rd downs as you do stopping it. On 2nd downs and 1st downs the pressure is all on the defense and not as much on offense, well I guess how many yards you need to get for the next first down puts pressure on the offense.