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Patriots have better defense than Steelers

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Nov 14, 2007.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Using an objective way, instead of the dumb old "points allowed" method to calculate the better defense, I used adjusted averages to figure out which team's defense is better.

    Now, taking away the Patriots and Steelers from their opponents' statistics, here are their opponents averages when not playing the two teams.

    Here are my conclusions.

    Steelers opponents have scored 1520 points in 72 games, for an average of 21.1 points per game. The Steelers have allowed 14 ppg this season. The Steelers adjusted defensive differential is -7.1 ppg, so their defense is 7.1 points better than the average team against the same opponents.

    Patriots opponents have scored 1755 points in 72 games, for an average of 24.4 points per game. The Patriots have allowed 16.3 ppg this season. The Patriots adjusted defensive differential is -8.1 ppg, so their defense is 8.1 points better than the average team against the same opponents.

    The Patriots have shut down much tougher offenses, including Indianapolis and Dallas. While no mainstream pundit will bother to use this reasonable formula and will proclaim the Steelers the "#1 ranked defense" just remember that the truth lies here. Steelers fans are in for a rude awakening when they come to the Razor thinking they have an edge on defense.

    One more note of interest.

    On third down, the Pats' defense leads the league, allowing a first down only 30.3% of the time. The Steelers rank 13th, allowing a first down 41% of the time.
  2. patsox23

    patsox23 Rookie

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    interesting stuff, a point of view, and effort. THANK YOU for saving the site, at least for today. I love the newbies who bring it.
  3. Amnorix

    Amnorix Rookie

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    There are a million ways to cherry pick stats. Your analysis is good, but the STeelers are allowing half a yard less per rush, have a lower QB-rating against, are tied with us for most INTs, are better in the red zone than us (who isn't), etc.

    We've forced more turnovers, and have a better offense.

    Suffice to sayt hey're a VERY good team with a VERY good defense. I think we're better, but we'll see...
  4. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Agreed. Both teams have great defenses. But this formula makes more sense for "points allowed" than simply taking the overall points allowed.
  5. Amnorix

    Amnorix Rookie

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    That I agree with.

    Basically, most stats are dumb. The NFL's system of ranking offense/defense strictly by yards gained/allowed is the stupidest of all systems.

    Your formula is light-years ahead of that.
  6. eom

    eom Rookie

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    and how often are both teams in nickel, and which running offenses have each played?

    it's not like your own running game is the only way to kill clock.
  7. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

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    I read somewhere this week that some experts are of the opinion the Patriots defense will improve significantly moving forward to the end of the season. I can see Seymour's return having a big impact, but what other rationale could they be using to make that statement?

    Is it just the time of year the Patriots typically turn it up a notch?
  8. sieglo

    sieglo Rookie

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    Pats ALWAYS turn it up on defense as the season goes on. Offense too, as a matter of fact. The team always looks incredible in weeks 12-16 versus earlier in the year. If this Pats team is the same, then we are in for a real treat.
  9. SteelerSteve

    SteelerSteve Rookie

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    Okay, while that logic is interesting I have a question for you, you really think that the Pats defense shutdown Dallas and Indy? didn't they both put up over 20 on you? sorry but it was your offense that beat Dallas, and as for the Colts game, well that was actually just a sloppy game by both teams imo, but they still put up twenty plus on you.
  10. everlong

    everlong Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    The Colts put up 20 and Dallas 27 but Dallas scored a defensive TD and had a long return put them in FG range and the defense held. So technically the defense gave up 17.

    20 and 17 isn't bad vs those offenses. You can lay a similar claim against Cleveland and those 28 points but Denver hung 31 on you which is more than we've given up all year.
  11. Patriot Power

    Patriot Power Rookie

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    Wait... so if holding the Colts to 20 points is a bad thing... what does that make giving up 21 to the Arizona Cardinals ?
  12. SteelerSteve

    SteelerSteve Rookie

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    :rolleyes: that was not my point, he said that the Pats defense dominated the Colts and Cowboys, yet they gave up twenty plus points. That is not domination.
  13. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady Rookie

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    Held both teams to about 10 points under their average. Kind of like the Steelers shutting out the Niners.
  14. psychoPat

    psychoPat Role Player PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Kudos! for your hard work in deleting the numbers that shouldn't be counted
    ... those caused by the team you are comparing to.

    I've long wished for stats to be done that way.
    It is a very credible approach.
  15. scott99

    scott99 Rookie

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    #87 Jersey

    A lot of our points against came when teams were trying to play catch up. For instance, Miami scored 28, but were down 42-7 at the half, Cleveland scored 17, but were down 20-0 at the half. The Cowboys OFFENSE, scored 20 points and Indy's OFFENSE scord 20 points, that's pretty damned dominating (especially AT Dallas and AT Indy). Those offenses are the second and third highest scoring offenses in the NFL, averaging 30+ a game (Ok, Indy is at 29.5). To hold them to 10 points under their average, in THEIR home field is pretty damned good. We have also faced SD, Cincy & Cleveland, who have some pretty good offenses, and gave up 38 points total. SD & Cincy are scoring less than they have been in prior seasons, but to hold them to 21 points total is pretty damned good.

    It's interesting, when you break things down, the 16.3 points against average for the Pats is pretty damned impressive considering a lot of points scored againt us came during garbage time (when we were way ahead). Pitt has a wonderful defense, and have given up 21 points less than us, but they also haven't really faced a Dallas or Indy type offense.
  16. eom

    eom Rookie

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    how is this even a discussion?

    last year, the pats had a top 3 defense in pts allowed w/a bunch of guys injured, and players out of position.
    this year they get those guys back healthy --- seau's back, seymour, harrison, etc, and they add adalius thomas.

    in the second halves of the 2 serious games they played this year, where the game was actually contested at the half, they basically allowed 7 pts each to dallas and indy --- 2 of the top 3 offenses in the league.

    wtf has pitt done??
    shut out seattle?
    congrats on that.

    they each gave up 13 to cincy, w/the pats giving a couple extra to buffalo, while pitt gives a couple extra to an anderson led cleveland.
    meanwhile, pitt has also given up 31 to denver, 21 to arizona, and 16 to a horrible san fran team who's only topped that total twice this year: scoring 20 against 'zona, and 17 against the hapless st louis rams.

    I'd say pitt has a very good d, but to somehow claim it's better than the pats is grounds for drug testing.
  17. qbert

    qbert Rookie

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    Because the majority of Pats fans here simply CANNOT accept any statistics recorded or words uttered, by anyone, anywhere, ever, that even suggest another team could possibly be as good or better than the Pats at any one thing.

    Allowed 21 fewer points than the Pats D through 9 games.

    They've allowed even fewer when you factor in the fumble return TD by Denver and the kick/punt return TDs by CLE and ARZ.

    You only face who's on your schedule. Oh yeah, where have I heard THAT before?
  18. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

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    the Steelers are marginally better than the Patriots defense, but the Titans are the best of all.

    the trouble with both your method and with traditional stats is that is doesn't remove the affect the teams OFFENSE has on defensive stats. also, it doesnt adjust for strength of schedule. or luck (ie your fumble recovery rate, which has been shown to be luck)

    DVOA does, read up on it

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2007
  19. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    no troll..a majority of Pats fans detest rotten scumbag trolls like you polluting every thread with your idiotic attempts to promote your troll opinions.

    Patriot fans are well aware of weaknesses and strengths on OUR team and are quite capable of arguning the same amongst ourselves without the incessant troll interuptions by agenda driven mongoloids like you. Take your arrogance and contrarian snottiness and shove 'em right back up your tuna can sized sphinter chocolata.
  20. eom

    eom Rookie

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    dude, I don't know who you think you are, but I'm not going to blindly accept some idiocy just because you uttered it.
    I'll stick w/reality.

    we'll check out that great pitt d when they play each other.
    hope you don't disappear like all the chargers fans, dallas fans, etc after the game.
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