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Patriots have a Top 10 defense


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Tough to argue with Banks assessment of a steep decline in talent on teh defensive side:

New England Patriots are struggling; Brett Favre trend continues - Don Banks - SI.com

"While each subtraction looks defensible in and of itself, the cumulative effect of trying to play without Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison and Tedy Bruschi has created a void greater than the sum of its parts. Especially when Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs are still missed in Foxboro.

Add to that the discouraging reality that New England has swung and missed in terms of the defensive veterans it has acquired in recent years. The level of exposure the Patriots young defensive players are suffering was supposed to be minimized by the likes of cornerback Shawn Springs, linebacker/defensive end Derrick Burgess and linebacker Adalius Thomas. But New England has gotten little or no impact from those veterans, and that has made it rely too heavily on young players who just aren't ready for the roles they were drafted to fill (see Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler and Terrence Wheatley)."

Spot-on IMO
 
I think both sides have a tendency to exaggerate their point, as is the case in much of life it is a polarizing debate. Either its terrible or a top 10 defense, I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle and they are an average defense, in the 14-16 area.

But because you asked for the reasoning behind those who believe the defense is bad (or not as good as you believe it is), I will present what I believe is their case:

The teams we have played and their Total Offense ranking:

Bills - 29th
Jets - 20th
Falcons - 16th
Ravens - 15th
Broncos - 17th
Titans - 13th
Bucs - 27th
Fins - 19th
Colts - 4th
Jets - 20th
Saints - 1st
Fins - 19th

Avg - 16.667

So besides the Saints and Colts games (in which the defense gave up 34 and 35 respectively) the defense has gone against offenses ranked 15th or lower every week except for the Titans, and the Titans ranking is a bit deceiving considering we played them pre-Vince Young when their total offense was much lower. There is certainly a case to be made that they have at least taken care of business versus the opponents they were given, but it is tough to say they are as good as those PPG statistics indicate. For what its worth, Football Outsiders and their opponent adjusted stats put the Pats as the 15th best defense.

I also believe another reason is the timing of the defense. It seems like the bigger the moment the worse the defense gets. This has a lasting impact on people as they are far more likely to remember the 4th quarter collapse vs the Colts than to think back to the shut-out against the Titans, even though statistically both count evenly as 1 game. Their inability to get it done when it matters is concerning. Certainly the offense hasn't done their job to close out games on that side of the ball, but the defense hasn't stepped up to the added responsibility and closed out games either. From the Ravens drive that was luckily saved due to a drop by Mason, to the OT drive by the Broncos, to the entire 4th quarter against the Colts, to the entire Saints game, to the game-winning drive by the Fins. Holding the Titans and Bucs to a combined 7 points is great and certainly a nice stat-booster, but what is the point if you can't stop teams when we need a game-winning stop or in high-pressure games (Saints)?

Hopefully this helps you understand where they are coming from.

very nice analysis tart. I was just going to say we beat up the pansies but can't stop the good ones. You've provided some stats to back that up.

Generally for me, it comes down to whether they can come up with the big stop. Some of those bend but don't break defenses of the championship years weren't that great in the YPG category but could make the big stop when it mattered most. Maybe bend but don't break defenses require a certain makeup that we just don't have right now.
 
You are paying too much attention to the hyperbole of "one of the worst."

The Pats don't have a good defense. We should know what a good defense looks like after what the Pats had earlier this decade yet we've been having the same discussion on this board for 3 years now. This isn't a good defense.

They aren't good enough to slow down elite offenses (see Indy or No) and have really struggled against mediocre ones at times (see Denver or Miami). They did hold up pretty well against offenses like Tampa, Tenn, or the Jets who are playing QBs who had no business starting NFL games that week.

The defense isn't the only issue on this team but I really find it crazy that a few days after Chad Henne and the Dolphins produce over 400 yds, go 12-22 on 3rd and 4th down, and drive down the field with the game on the line to win it that people would question those who say the defense is an issue on this team. And that is before you factor in that Henne's inaccuracy made the defense look better because he missed numerous wide open guys in the 2nd half.

Yeah, tell me about it. I started a rare thread on how we've had late leads of 17, 14, 10 etc this year, but the defense collapsed and blew it. Just because the offense can't always come back to get the lead in the 4th quarter like a machine doesn't mean it's all on them.

I can't believe that on a day when we had TD's in every quarter but the 4th (INT in EZ, left on the 5 yd line), Brady threw for 352, Welker had 167 receiving, and we even got Aiken involved--not to mention the 3 long balls to Moss,Welker, and Aiken himself, that everyone could blame the defense. 12 for 22 on 3rd and 4th + an average offense like MIA's is absolutely pathetic.

We are up there statistically in TOP, points scored, yards per game, etc---all on offense. Hell, at least we have various players performing up to their high standards on offense, multiple playmakers. When we won 2 out of 3 SB's we scored totals of 20 and 24, to me it's more than cut and dry, but to others, not so much. Having lost 3 out of the past 4 games, our defense was totally manhandled in every way in losses to IND, NO, and MIA.

What's worse, as respectful/polite as I've been to just about everyone, I actually got responses like "What planet are you on?" from posters whom I respected and thought highly of. I understand each person believes it's a different area of the team--but to act like it's not even debate worthy is just...asinine. I understand no one thinks Brady's human, and can't make mistakes, etc, but at least he's played decently and consistantly coming off a tough injury. The same goes for Welker and Moss, also a lot of the O-line. Execution obviously needs some work, etc, but at least the pieces are there. But if BB were to coach up the offense this week, what the hell would he really do, besides tell them to limit mistakes and execute better? It's not like a lot of their stuff is totally failing. On defense, it's totally the other way around. If BB had to coach up the defense this week, he'd certainly have his hands full as we have zero pass rush, average rush defense, and a sub-par secondary. I think that pretty much tells you everything right there, imagine if you had to coach up the offense or defense this week, who would you rather be responsible for?

On defense we either have first round talent playing, like Mayo, Meriweather, Warren, Wilfork, Chung, Butler,or MAJOR off-season acquisitions like Burgess, AD, Bodden etc---added with long-tenured vet talent like Green. I don't want to hear that our "defense wasn't supposed to be good this yr so we should be happy with what we have." That's a major copout if I ever heard one. We have major playmaking ability, supposed excellent (genius level) coaching, and a good work ethic. To me, there's not much excuse, like BB says 'you play with what you have.' Well, upper-tier management brought these players here, so they must've figured they could do well. Too bad It'll cost us a rapidly closing window of opportunity to win the SB, with guys like Brady, Moss, etc on offense.
 
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Tough to argue with Banks assessment of a steep decline in talent on teh defensive side:

"New England has swung and missed in terms of the defensive veterans it has acquired in recent years. The level of exposure the Patriots young defensive players are suffering was supposed to be minimized by the likes of cornerback Shawn Springs, linebacker/defensive end Derrick Burgess and linebacker Adalius Thomas. But New England has gotten little or no impact from those veterans, and that has made it rely too heavily on young players who just aren't ready for the roles they were drafted to fill (see Jonathan Wilhite, Darius Butler and Terrence Wheatley)."

Does anyone here dispute this? And if you don't why keep throwing the PPG stat as if it's meaningful?
 
The Patriots will finish with a top 5 scoring defense at season's end.

That's quite fine with me.

Really? Even if they continue to play as the have?
 
I can't believe that on a day when we had TD's in every quarter but the 4th (INT in EZ, left on the 5 yd line), Brady threw for 352, Welker had 167 receiving, and we even got Aiken involved--not to mention the 3 long balls to Moss,Welker, and Aiken himself, that everyone could blame the defense.

I guess you meant "everyone could blame the offense." They blame the offense because these are the same guys that two short years ago had, arguably, the most prolific offense in the hx of the NFL, so more is expected of them AND because this offense has been a tale of two halves.
 
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Our team dominates T.O.P

also the breakdown against the colts and saints... other than that theyve been alright

You mean the games against competent teams?

Stats don't prove anything. On paper we were the best team in '07 but we have nothing to show for it.

If this team played against more top tier teams you would see our defensive stats slide fast
 
Ever since the Colts game our D has gone downhill. If you asked me before that if we had a top 10 defense I'd say yes. Now? Not so much.
 
Ever since the Colts game our D has gone downhill. If you asked me before that if we had a top 10 defense I'd say yes. Now? Not so much.

That's because, before the Colts game, we really didn't play any good offenses. In the Colts game and since then, we've played two and have allowed over 35 points each time.
 
I posted this in another forum but it belongs here as well...

The defense has not been the problem this year. Look at their stats 7th in points per game, 11th in yards per game, 13th in passing, 15th in rushing. Coming into the season looking at the players that we had I think anyone would have been satisfied with those numbers because we would have thought that the offense would be carrying this team.

The offense has been the problem this year because they just arent putting up the points that we are used to them seeing. They are 5th in scoring per game at 27.3, but that number is decieving because of the Tennessee game. You would expect with the talent that we have on offense we would be able to score at will and not have to worry too much about how many points the defense gives up.

If the offense was doing what everyone thought they would do this year, no one would be complaining about the defense. The offensive has been the issue this year not the defense.
 
I posted this in another forum but it belongs here as well...

The defense has not been the problem this year. Look at their stats 7th in points per game, 11th in yards per game, 13th in passing, 15th in rushing. Coming into the season looking at the players that we had I think anyone would have been satisfied with those numbers because we would have thought that the offense would be carrying this team.

The offense has been the problem this year because they just arent putting up the points that we are used to them seeing. They are 5th in scoring per game at 27.3, but that number is decieving because of the Tennessee game. You would expect with the talent that we have on offense we would be able to score at will and not have to worry too much about how many points the defense gives up.

If the offense was doing what everyone thought they would do this year, no one would be complaining about the defense. The offensive has been the issue this year not the defense.

How does the Tennesee/Tampa combo not fall under "deceiving" for the defense?
 
I didn't miss them. I just think that they undersell the level of suck this team has faced. The numbers should improve a bit more over the last month as the Patriots face even more terrible offenses, and the data will become even more skewed as a result.

You are aware that the Pats have played the Colts and Saints in the past four weeks, aren't you? Saying that we haven't faced good offenses just doesn't work, especially for stats that are adjusted for defense (that's what the D in DVOA stands for).

I don't think we're a top-10 defense either, but IMO the DVOA rankings have us pegged pretty solidly. We're average.
 
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How does the Tennesee/Tampa combo not fall under "deceiving" for the defense?

Well then you could also make a case that the Colts/Saints combo is also "deceiving"

My point was that if the offense was performing to what it is capable of nobody would be complaining about the defense because we would be winning games that this year we are not
 
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I posted this in another forum but it belongs here as well...

The defense has not been the problem this year. Look at their stats 7th in points per game, 11th in yards per game, 13th in passing, 15th in rushing. Coming into the season looking at the players that we had I think anyone would have been satisfied with those numbers because we would have thought that the offense would be carrying this team.

The offense has been the problem this year because they just arent putting up the points that we are used to them seeing. They are 5th in scoring per game at 27.3, but that number is decieving because of the Tennessee game. You would expect with the talent that we have on offense we would be able to score at will and not have to worry too much about how many points the defense gives up.

If the offense was doing what everyone thought they would do this year, no one would be complaining about the defense. The offensive has been the issue this year not the defense.

I'll have to differ with you on a few points.

1. The offense in the 2nd half has been a problem. 1st half, the Pats are the most prolific scoring offense in the NFL and if you're scoring an average of 27 ppg, the offense is not really the biggest problem.

2. Has the offense closed out games and converted 4th downs to continue drives and kill the clock? No. But the defense hasn't been HOLDING the opponent's offense in check in the 4th quarter when the game has been on the line either. Laying all the blame on the offense and none on the defense is hardly an objective way to examine the problems that are plauguing this team.

3. If you're honest with yourself and you use your EYES, you can see that this is not a top 10 defense. Yes we shut out some crappy teams - Bucs, Titans when they were on their 0-6 slide, etc. But that just skews the points per game average. Against GOOD offensive teams like the Colts and Saints, this defense has shown its true colors. It's just not very good and it is HARDLY a top 10 unit. A top 10 defensive unit can close out games when its offense gives it a lead of over 3 points to protect with 5 or less minutes left on the clock. When has this defense done that this season? Give me concrete examples!
 
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I'll have to differ with you on a few points.

1. The offense in the 2nd half has been a problem. 1st half, the Pats are the most prolific scoring offense in the NFL and if you're scoring an average of 27 ppg, the offense is not really the biggest problem.

2. Has the offense closed out games and converted 4th downs to continue drives and kill the clock? No. But the defense hasn't been HOLDING the opponent's offense in check in the 4th quarter when the game has been on the line either. Laying all the blame on the offense and none on the defense is hardly an objective way to examine the problems that are plauguing this team.

3. If you're honest with yourself and you use your EYES, you can see that this is not a top 10 defense. Yes we shut out some crappy teams - Bucs, Titans when they were on their 0-6 slide, etc. But that just skews the points per game average. Against GOOD offensive teams like the Colts and Saints, this defense has shown its true colors. It's just not very good and it is HARDLY a top 10 unit. A top 10 defensive unit can close out games when its offense gives it a lead of over 3 points to protect with 5 or less minutes left on the clock. When has this defense done that this season? Give me concrete examples!

1. As I said the 27 ppg figure is deceiving, if you take out the Tennessee and Tampa games they only average 20.8 points a game. In the league this year with no dominating defense, you need to think you need to score atleast 20 points to win games. Especially with the weapons you have on offense you should be scoring 30+ points each week.

2. The offense has put a lot of pressure this year in the 2nd half with all the 3 and outs. A perfect example of this was last weeks game. The Pats continuously went 3 and out in the 3rd and 4th quarters and the defense stopped the Dolphins every possession except the final one. The Pats offense was asking way too much from their defense.

3. I have never said that the Pats D is actually a top 10 defense, I will admit that they are not and they have their flaws. Coming into the season we knew that they were going to have their flaws; look at the players that are playing. Young and inexperienced players are obviously going to have some issues. I can say that the defense has shown once this year that it can stop a team in the 4th quarter when they had a chance to win and that was the Ravens game. The defense is not a top 10 defense and has its flaws but the defense has been asked to do a lot more than they should have to do this year especially with the offense that we have.
 
Patriots are now tied with the Bengals in defense for 3rd (17.4 PPG) in the NFL.
 
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You are aware that the Pats have played the Colts and Saints in the past four weeks, aren't you? Saying that we haven't faced good offenses just doesn't work, especially for stats that are adjusted for defense (that's what the D in DVOA stands for).

I don't think we're a top-10 defense either, but IMO the DVOA rankings have us pegged pretty solidly. We're average.

The Saints and the Colts exposed this defense for what it really is

nothing

Most of the game we've played have been against average opponents and we've padded our stats with it.

Being top 10 statistically doesn't mean a thing because there are definitely 10 other defenses in the league I'd take over ours
 
The Saints and the Colts exposed this defense for what it really is

nothing

Most of the game we've played have been against average opponents and we've padded our stats with it.

Being top 10 statistically doesn't mean a thing because there are definitely 10 other defenses in the league I'd take over ours

*violin playing*
 
This should be a 10-2 team, but its a immature team that does not know how to win down the stretch... Brady ,Welker and Moss can only do so much..

We could just as easily be 7-7, This is why our D is not as good as it seems
we shut out a terrible Tennessee team and gave up a combined 73 points in the biggest games we've played all year.
 
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