Patriots chances at the #2 seed

[Disco Volante]

Was simulating some playoff scenarios assuming the Patriots win their final three games.

It would be a 5 step process.

Chargers (10-3)

Lose
1) vs Bengals (9-4)
2) @ Titans (6-7)

+

Bengals (9-4)

Lose
3) vs Chiefs (3-10)
4) @ Jets (7-6)

+

Broncos (8-5)

Lose
5) 1 game (vs Raiders or @ Eagles or vs Chiefs)

= Patriots #2 seed.

Slim? Indeed, but just for anyone interested in how things would have to work out.

 

[xmarkd400x]

What if the Broncos win out? Or are the Broncos now 10-6 at best?

 

[RobertWeathers]

I give the Bolts credit for beating the teams that they are supposed to beat. They certainly have the one-up on the Pats in that regard.

Cinci is uneven. Not sure what is going on with that team.

As you lay out, it's possible.

 

[Disco Volante]

What if the Broncos win out? Or are the Broncos now 10-6 at best?

Oh yeah, forgot about those pesky Broncos.

Added.

 

[klinefan]

This assumes the Patsies (after the Thomas fiasco, I think we are patsies again), win out. Big assumption.

I think it would behoove teh team to try to make the playoffs, change up the offense to make it a little more unpredictable, and get healthy.

 

[upstater1]

It's out of reach.

I went through a few playoff scenarios last night, and this is what I realized.

The Patriots will host the Broncos in the first game, and they will win.

Then, it all depends on Cincy. If Cincy loses to, say, the Ravens, then the Patriots travel to San Diego.

When all is said and done, Baltimore will beat Cincy and Indianapolis, and they will travel to Foxboro for a repeat of this season's regular season game.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

 

[NEPatriot]

I don't care about # seed at this point. Pats need to be in the playoff. The only way they do it is to win AFC division. It's that simple.

 

[Metaphors]

While a #2 seed would be great, I'm actually more concerned about the injured guys getting healthy, the old guys getting rest and the young guys getting the reps needed to stay sharp. Assuming the Pats win the division, here are my takes on the seeding prospects:

#2 Seed

Obviously the best scenario with the bye week and only 1 home game from the AFFC game. This is only realistic with a Bengals win over SD which is possible.

#4 Seed

I actually like this seeding as well, especially if the Pats can clinch before week 17...essentially making the Texans game a bye week. This would make the road to the AFFC game: home vs. Broncos, at Indy. Besides the symmetry of avenging Brady's 1st two playoff losses, I like the Pats chances. The Broncos would be making their 2nd trip east in 3 weeks. The Colts would be rested but wouldn't have played a meaningful game in over a month.

#3 Seed

Assuming SD in the #2 spot, I hate this scenario (essentially the same as 2006). Instead of getting the Broncos, the Pats would host whoever gets hot from the AFC wildcard contender group. Possibly a Ravens team that is physical and could be getting their act together. They the Pats travel west and if they survive that, then they take on an Indy team that knocked off the rust beating up on Cincy or Denver. If the Pats have a chance to advance to #3 in the last week, I wouldn't do it. Rest everyone and take the easier road to Miami.

So in any case, we should all be Bengal fans this week. Having Cincy cough up a hairball kills any chance of a #2 seed and makes a #3 seed more likely. Go Bengals!!!!!

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I can't trust a Bengals team with all their sorry history no matter how good of a team they are this year.

 

[Rob0729]

I think the #2 seed is a lost cause. The Chargers are playing too well.

I would rather have the 4 seed than the 3 seed too. Rather go into Indy than San Deigo. San Deigo might be the best team in football right now forgetting the record.

 

[staypuff]

Pats 2 seed scenarios a bit different than you listed

Bengals:

Lose 2 more games or just lose to jets (loss to jets would give us tie in conference record and advantage with common opponents); and

Chargers:

Lose 2 games, including loss to tennessee (loss to titans would give us tie in conference record and advantage with common opponents); and

Broncos: Lose one more game

 

[pats1]

There's no way the Chargers lose two games.

 

[Rob0729]

There's no way the Chargers lose two games.

I totally agree. The way they are playing now, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't lose another game until the 2010 season. As much as I hate to admit it.

 

[TheWill]

For those that think the Pats were better with more options on offense.

Then I looked at stats of San Diego, the 2nd best team in the AFC. Kinda hurts your argument? It looks like its all about execution or the Pats bad defense.

Rushing

Tomlinson 611 yards 10 TD vs Maroney 654 yards 8 TD
Sproles 276 yards vs Faulk 287 yards

Receiving

Gates 71, 1038 yards 5 TD vs. Moss 69, 1074, 9 TD
Jackson 58, 989 yards 7 TD vs. Welker 105, 1158, 4 TD
Sproles 40, 452 yards vs. Faulk 36, 298 yards
Floyd, 29, 518 yards vs. Watson 25, 358 yards

Explain it.

Of course it's all about execution. Individual stats can't tell the whole story; it's about executing when the team needs it. For example, the Pats players might have better stats, but I could never see this San Diego team going 3 for 11 on third down against a mediocre Carolina defense, and that's not even taking into account the other side of the ball.

That being said, I would still take the players on this Pats offense over those on SD.

 

[NSpatsfan]

I love all the talk about the #2 seed but at this point they got a hot Miami team chomping at their heels, an away division game this week plus two more conference games vs potential playoff contenders, and really can't afford to lose any or they make not even make the playoffs. I really wish they could have avoided crapping their pants last week in Miami

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Not to mention that SD has won 16 straight regular season games in December and all of a sudden are going to lose 2 or 3?

Please get realistic guys,don't let being a homer make you stupid

 

[supafly]

While a #2 seed would be great, I'm actually more concerned about the injured guys getting healthy, the old guys getting rest and the young guys getting the reps needed to stay sharp. Assuming the Pats win the division, here are my takes on the seeding prospects:

#2 Seed

Obviously the best scenario with the bye week and only 1 home game from the AFFC game. This is only realistic with a Bengals win over SD which is possible.

#4 Seed

I actually like this seeding as well, especially if the Pats can clinch before week 17...essentially making the Texans game a bye week. This would make the road to the AFFC game: home vs. Broncos, at Indy. Besides the symmetry of avenging Brady's 1st two playoff losses, I like the Pats chances. The Broncos would be making their 2nd trip east in 3 weeks. The Colts would be rested but wouldn't have played a meaningful game in over a month.

#3 Seed

Assuming SD in the #2 spot, I hate this scenario (essentially the same as 2006). Instead of getting the Broncos, the Pats would host whoever gets hot from the AFC wildcard contender group. Possibly a Ravens team that is physical and could be getting their act together. They the Pats travel west and if they survive that, then they take on an Indy team that knocked off the rust beating up on Cincy or Denver. If the Pats have a chance to advance to #3 in the last week, I wouldn't do it. Rest everyone and take the easier road to Miami.

So in any case, we should all be Bengal fans this week. Having Cincy cough up a hairball kills any chance of a #2 seed and makes a #3 seed more likely. Go Bengals!!!!!

Real nice job on the scenarios, etc. I have a question regarding the 3 or 4 seed.

What if we got the #3, thus avoiding DEN, who has much more of a defense and passing attack, not to mention we have certainly had our hands full with DEN? (check out BB's record with Pats vs. DEN) We'd not only play a weak team with a more run-oriented offense, such as JAX, MIA, BAL--but we'd avoid playing DEN also.

I don't think I'd be too scared of JAX or MIA at home, but DEN/BAL are probably on a pretty even level. We won a real close one vs. BAL, but lost a real close one vs. DEN. The thing about DEN that scares me (besides their defense and secondary) is Brady/BB's overall struggle vs them. DEN also can toss the ball on us a little better than BAL maybe could. That's debatable.

Also, by getting the #3, we give the 4 to CIN. They would have to play round #2 at IND, while we go to SD. Otherwise at #4 we'd go to IND for rd #2, with them well rested and coming off a bye. If it's me, I'd rather play SD in rd 2 than go to IND with them having that much time to prepare.

I like the chances of SD laying a 1st game egg (like 06), rather than IND laying a 1st game egg.

Just something to think about, I dunno.

 

[InRodWeRust]

Was simulating some playoff scenarios assuming the Patriots win their final three games.

It would be a 5 step process.

Chargers (10-3)

Lose
1) vs Bengals (9-4)
2) @ Titans (6-7)

+

Bengals (9-4)

Lose
3) vs Chiefs (3-10)
4) @ Jets (7-6)

+

Broncos (8-5)

Lose
5) 1 game (vs Raiders or @ Eagles or vs Chiefs)

= Patriots #2 seed.

Slim? Indeed, but just for anyone interested in how things would have to work out.

Wow! When you put it that way it looks like the Pats have a lock on the #2 seed!

Seriously though my gut is churning about the thought of losing the AFC East to the Dolphins or Jets. :ugh:

 

[SeauOUCH]

If the #2 seed is out of reach ( & I think it is ) I also much rather have the Pats get the #4 seed.

If both Denver & Balt win the wild card I think I rather play Denver, both games are winnable in Foxboro but having to play a very physical Balt team then travel all the way to SD to play a hot & rested SD team doesnt sound to appealing.

Indy will more than likely do their typical rest/coast into the playoffs & I rather get them in their 1st playoff game.