Patriots 2013 Rookies

[Kdo5]

It really stands out when you actually accept the fact that 16 catches were in four games and he missed most of the rest of the season after that. It also stands out when you take into effect that in that four game stretch he had 262 yards and 3 TDs. Over that time he averaged 4 catches for 65.5 yards and 0.75 TDs per game. Not a world beater numbers, but solid for a rookie WR.

Again, you are spinning it as if he played every one of the last 10 games and his performance is based on those ten games. It isn't the case.

Indeed. I basically agree with Supafly on most of what he is saying except for the part mentioned above. You are trying to say that Dobson's productivity when he is ON the field can be judged by averaging in the number of games he did not play w/an injury. That does not make sense. Sure his overall season was not greatly productive because he was out several games, but don't count the games he didn't play as proof of the fact he was suddenly performing less efficiently when he actually plays.

 

[supafly]

By your logic, the Pats should have kept Matt Cassel and traded Brady after the 2008 season because Cassel passed for 3693 yards and 21 TDs while Brady was atrocious throwing for only 76 yards and no TDs the entire season. I mean Brady threw for 4.75 yards per game that year. Embarrassing!

Not to sound disrespectful, Rob--but what's embarrassing is this comparison.

Why in the world would you bring anything about Tom Brady or Matt Cassel into the conversation, or the position of QB altogether? I didn't say anything of the sort...nor would I ever come close to saying anything even remotely comparable about Tom Brady.

The fact remains that Aaron Dobson caught 18 balls from mid-October on, which happens to be the final TEN games of the season...I don't know if it was affected by the wind, the rain, the flu, a dead relative, a bum foot, or wearing the wrong size of shoes, but we're discussing overall production. It's a shame that he was injured, dropped a lot of balls, and blew some opportunities, but the fact remains that he just didn't produce near what some are suggesting.

If you see that as some great year, then so be it. I'm not going to say that I think he's got a lot of potential and will hopefully make a year 2 leap anymore, b/c I've already done that way too many times.

If you want to check out some WRs who were rookies and had good seasons this year, look at the numbers of Keenan Allen (71 catches), Cordarelle Patterson (9 TDs), or even Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Ace Sanders, etc--who all had decent seasons either in catches, yardage, and TD's. That isn't even taking into account the bunch of guys who were mediocre themselves, but still above Aaron Dobson in many categories such as Marlon Brown, Kenny Stills, and Robert Woods.

I believe that Dobson had a mediocre to good year based on what our usual lower Patriot rookie standards are, but it's hardly anything to brag about. The talk of Dobson as a OROY candidate was downright silly. I think you see my posts and see a blinking red sign that screams "I hate Dobson, he sucks." That's not even close to what I'm saying. I think we just have a difference of opinions on what we perceive as a "GOOD" year, production-wise.

The truth is that Dobson showed nice flashes at times, and we can see why he was a higher round pick, but he also looked like a rookie (not coincidentally, b/c that's exactly what he was) who needs to improve in many areas. Hopefully that happens and we have a great outside threat for years to come. I think there's a fine chance that's the case.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The top rookie WRs in 2013, sorted by receptions, with games played at the end:

1. Keenan Allen, SD, 71/1046/8—15
2. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU, 52/802/2—16
3. Ace Sanders, JAC, 51/484/1—15
4. Marlon Brown, BAL, 49/524/7—14
5. Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN, 45/469/4—16
6. Terrance Williams, DAL, 44/736/5—16
7. Tavon Austin, STL, 40/418/4—13
8. Robert Woods, BUF, 40/587/3—14
9. Aaron Dobson, NE, 37/519/4—12
10. Kenny Stills, NO, 32/641/5—16
11. Kenbrell Thompkins, NE, 32/466/4—12

 

[supafly]

Indeed. I basically agree with Supafly on most of what he is saying except for the part mentioned above. You are trying to say that Dobson's productivity when he is ON the field can be judged by averaging in the number of games he did not play w/an injury. That does not make sense. Sure his overall season was not greatly productive because he was out several games, but don't count the games he didn't play as proof of the fact he was suddenly performing less efficiently when he actually plays.

Fair enough.

First of all, I appreciate the respect and level headedness that you've shown, and keep in mind that there are many differences of opinions--so it's nothing more than that.

But tell me, HOW exactly would you judge his production then if you don't like the fact that I looked at it down the stretch of the past 10 games, or from mid-October on? Do you think the OROY selection process revolves around "well, he was injured in these games here, so we shouldn't count them?"

It's a shame that Dobson missed 4 games this season, but it is what it is. He missed 25% of the games, dropped a TON of balls this year, and looked just as much like a lost rookie as he did an OROY candidate. To me, that defines the word "mediocre," but I also agree with you that there were excellent flashes mixed in there as well, which is why I am as hopeful as I am that he'll be a much better year #2 player.

I'm not disputing the fact that there was a period where he was targeted more and around the 8th or 9th game of the season looked to peak. Those are both facts that you've made that would be correct. The truth is that just as much as you don't care for my sample size, I also think yours is skewed too. He had a nice stretch somewhere in the middle of the year, but we can't project that few game stretch into an entire 16 game season.

 

[Deus Irae]

Fair enough.

First of all, I appreciate the respect and level headedness that you've shown, and keep in mind that there are many differences of opinions--so it's nothing more than that.

But tell me, HOW exactly would you judge his production then if you don't like the fact that I looked at it down the stretch of the past 10 games, or from mid-October on? Do you think the OROY selection process revolves around "well, he was injured in these games here, so we shouldn't count them?"

It's a shame that Dobson missed 4 games this season, but it is what it is. He missed 25% of the games, dropped a TON of balls this year, and looked just as much like a lost rookie as he did an OROY candidate. To me, that defines the word "mediocre," but I also agree with you that there were excellent flashes mixed in there as well, which is why I am as hopeful as I am that he'll be a much better year #2 player.

I'm not disputing the fact that there was a period where he was targeted more and around the 8th or 9th game of the season looked to peak. Those are both facts that you've made that would be correct. The truth is that just as much as you don't care for my sample size, I also think yours is skewed too. He had a nice stretch somewhere in the middle of the year, but we can't project that few game stretch into an entire 16 game season.

If I may....

I think it's fair to say that you both have a rational case for your positions on the missed games. I also think it would be fair to point out that a huge part of the reason that Dobson and Thompkins had the numbers they did is that they were force fed out of necessity, when neither should have been on the field, and that colors their numbers a lot.

 

[supafly]

If I may....

I think it's fair to say that you both have a rational case for your positions on the missed games. I also think it would be fair to point out that a huge part of the reason that Dobson and Thompkins had the numbers they did is that they were force fed out of necessity, when neither should have been on the field, and that colors their numbers a lot.

Yes, I think that wraps it up pretty nicely. Both have some cherry picking qualities to them, while both also have some valid points to them. That is probably not unusual when getting into debates, as I have found that many times the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

Your point about force feeding is exactly why I'm not quite as high on the 3 rookie WRs as some may be, at least in terms of the 2013 campaign anyway. This thinking also goes hand in hand with many tending to overvalue Edelman's season too, judging by some of the salary projections that are being thrown around.

As many have pointed out, a proper blending of sorts with one or more of these rookie WRs being paired with improvements from Amendola, the possibility of retaining Edelman, the hopeful return of Gronkowski, and maybe an additional free agent or unexpected vet receiver being added would go a long way towards our 2014 corp.

 

[Rob0729]

Not to sound disrespectful, Rob--but what's embarrassing is this comparison.

Why in the world would you bring anything about Tom Brady or Matt Cassel into the conversation, or the position of QB altogether? I didn't say anything of the sort...nor would I ever come close to saying anything even remotely comparable about Tom Brady.

The fact remains that Aaron Dobson caught 18 balls from mid-October on, which happens to be the final TEN games of the season...I don't know if it was affected by the wind, the rain, the flu, a dead relative, a bum foot, or wearing the wrong size of shoes, but we're discussing overall production. It's a shame that he was injured, dropped a lot of balls, and blew some opportunities, but the fact remains that he just didn't produce near what some are suggesting.

If you see that as some great year, then so be it. I'm not going to say that I think he's got a lot of potential and will hopefully make a year 2 leap anymore, b/c I've already done that way too many times.

If you want to check out some WRs who were rookies and had good seasons this year, look at the numbers of Keenan Allen (71 catches), Cordarelle Patterson (9 TDs), or even Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Ace Sanders, etc--who all had decent seasons either in catches, yardage, and TD's. That isn't even taking into account the bunch of guys who were mediocre themselves, but still above Aaron Dobson in many categories such as Marlon Brown, Kenny Stills, and Robert Woods.

I believe that Dobson had a mediocre to good year based on what our usual lower Patriot rookie standards are, but it's hardly anything to brag about. The talk of Dobson as a OROY candidate was downright silly. I think you see my posts and see a blinking red sign that screams "I hate Dobson, he sucks." That's not even close to what I'm saying. I think we just have a difference of opinions on what we perceive as a "GOOD" year, production-wise.

The truth is that Dobson showed nice flashes at times, and we can see why he was a higher round pick, but he also looked like a rookie (not coincidentally, b/c that's exactly what he was) who needs to improve in many areas. Hopefully that happens and we have a great outside threat for years to come. I think there's a fine chance that's the case.

I used Brady and Cassel as an extreme to prove a point. You can discount a player for missing games from injuries, but you cannot make it sound like if he played and just made zero contribution. And that is what you are saying by saying he had 18 catches in the last ten games and not explain that he missed all or most of his final 3-4 games due to injury.

I never said he would ever be in the discussion of OROY. In fact, I said he wouldn't even if he played 16 games.

As for the other rookies you list, Dobson was on track to have a better year than many of them if he wasn't injured. Who knows if he would have, but based on his averages he would have.

We do agree with the overall conclusions that he shows potential. I just don't think your argument of the last ten games is valid though. I just don't know how you can judge a guy on his on field potential when he wasn't on the field.

 

[Rob0729]

If I may....

I think it's fair to say that you both have a rational case for your positions on the missed games. I also think it would be fair to point out that a huge part of the reason that Dobson and Thompkins had the numbers they did is that they were force fed out of necessity, when neither should have been on the field, and that colors their numbers a lot.

Several things:

• Plenty of rookie WRs are force fed balls out of necessity right out of the gate. That isn't uncommon. It is uncommon to have two rookies are first fed balls right out of the gate, but one happens quite frequently.
• Dobson broke out around the Saints game and most of his production happened starting in that game. Prior to that, he had typical numbers for a rookie WR who was the #2 WR on the field.
• I think assuming Dobson can come back for the playoffs, force feeding him the ball early may have been the best thing for the team in the playoffs. When healthy, he is a legitimate outside/deep threat that teams have to account for. If he was buried on the depth chart, I don't think he would be close to that.

 

[DarrylS]

I really like this draft class, not "pretty" but very utilitarian. And have always contended that this team is being rebuilt on the fly... to have 15 rookies on this team that went 12-4, is a tribute to talent evaluation and good coaching.

Need to put all of this in perspective, when the draft took place we were counting on AH and Gronk being a factor. So the rookie WR's were asked to do more than they were probably ready for... Dobson, Thompson and Boyce all look as though they have a bright NFL future...

When you look at how BB worked Collins into a starting role, it helped him become pretty good as opposed to just having him start and not be ready.

The same is pretty much true for Ryan, Harmon and the rest..

Allen was a good find...

 

[patsinthesnow]

Not to sound disrespectful, Rob--but what's embarrassing is this comparison.

Why in the world would you bring anything about Tom Brady or Matt Cassel into the conversation, or the position of QB altogether? I didn't say anything of the sort...nor would I ever come close to saying anything even remotely comparable about Tom Brady.

The fact remains that Aaron Dobson caught 18 balls from mid-October on, which happens to be the final TEN games of the season...I don't know if it was affected by the wind, the rain, the flu, a dead relative, a bum foot, or wearing the wrong size of shoes, but we're discussing overall production. It's a shame that he was injured, dropped a lot of balls, and blew some opportunities, but the fact remains that he just didn't produce near what some are suggesting.

If you see that as some great year, then so be it. I'm not going to say that I think he's got a lot of potential and will hopefully make a year 2 leap anymore, b/c I've already done that way too many times.

If you want to check out some WRs who were rookies and had good seasons this year, look at the numbers of Keenan Allen (71 catches), Cordarelle Patterson (9 TDs), or even Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Ace Sanders, etc--who all had decent seasons either in catches, yardage, and TD's. That isn't even taking into account the bunch of guys who were mediocre themselves, but still above Aaron Dobson in many categories such as Marlon Brown, Kenny Stills, and Robert Woods.

I believe that Dobson had a mediocre to good year based on what our usual lower Patriot rookie standards are, but it's hardly anything to brag about. The talk of Dobson as a OROY candidate was downright silly. I think you see my posts and see a blinking red sign that screams "I hate Dobson, he sucks." That's not even close to what I'm saying. I think we just have a difference of opinions on what we perceive as a "GOOD" year, production-wise.

The truth is that Dobson showed nice flashes at times, and we can see why he was a higher round pick, but he also looked like a rookie (not coincidentally, b/c that's exactly what he was) who needs to improve in many areas. Hopefully that happens and we have a great outside threat for years to come. I think there's a fine chance that's the case.

In fairness to Dobson, only two WRs really stood above the rest (Allen and Patterson). What a surprise, the two WRs that we're ranked highest on draft boards prior to the pro days. People on this board would of lost their minds with Hopkins or Williams, who we're terribly inconsistent throughout the year. (Just like our rookie WRs)

I'm with you supa though. I would call Dobson's year mediocre to average for a highly drafted rookie WR that started most of the year. Also agree that hypothetical numbers are dumb. If Keenan Allen actually started at the beginning of the season, he may of reached 1,200 yards.

2013 Rookie WR Class:

1. Keenan Allen-stud
.
.
.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson-raw WR ability, crazy playmaker
.
.
.
.
.
3. Everyone else-meh/average rookie years

 

[Rob0729]

In fairness to Dobson, only two WRs really stood above the rest (Allen and Patterson). What a surprise, the two WRs that we're ranked highest on draft boards prior to the pro days. People on this board would of lost their minds with Hopkins or Williams, who we're terribly inconsistent throughout the year. (Just like our rookie WRs)

I'm with you supa though. I would call Dobson's year mediocre to average for a highly drafted rookie WR that started most of the year. Also agree that hypothetical numbers are dumb. If Keenan Allen actually started at the beginning of the season, he may of reached 1,200 yards.

2013 Rookie WR Class:

1. Keenan Allen-stud
.
.
.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson-raw WR ability, crazy playmaker
.
.
.
.
.
3. Everyone else-meh/average rookie years

I think if you take away Patterson's kick return production, he wasn't really anything special at least until the last month of the season. He showed potential, but other that two or three big plays at the end of the season (79 yard TD catch vs. Baltimore and 50 yard TD run vs. Detriot) he really had a very quite season. He has shown potential to be a stud, but he was a complete non-factor on offense until about week 11. He had 627 all purpose yards and 7 TDs on offense this year and 375 yards and 6 TDs came in the last five weeks.

I would say that if Dobson didn't get hurt, he would have had a better year than Patterson.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I think if you take away Patterson's kick return production, he wasn't really anything special at least until the last month of the season. He showed potential, but other that two or three big plays at the end of the season (79 yard TD catch vs. Baltimore and 50 yard TD run vs. Detriot) he really had a very quite season. He has shown potential to be a stud, but he was a complete non-factor on offense until about week 11. He had 627 all purpose yards and 7 TDs on offense this year and 375 yards and 6 TDs came in the last five weeks.

I would say that if Dobson didn't get hurt, he would have had a better year than Patterson.

You can't just take Patterson's kick return production away. He was the best KR in the NFL by a pretty decent margin.

 

[Luxusdk]

In fairness to Dobson, only two WRs really stood above the rest (Allen and Patterson). What a surprise, the two WRs that we're ranked highest on draft boards prior to the pro days. People on this board would of lost their minds with Hopkins or Williams, who we're terribly inconsistent throughout the year. (Just like our rookie WRs)

I'm with you supa though. I would call Dobson's year mediocre to average for a highly drafted rookie WR that started most of the year. Also agree that hypothetical numbers are dumb. If Keenan Allen actually started at the beginning of the season, he may of reached 1,200 yards.

2013 Rookie WR Class:

1. Keenan Allen-stud
.
.
.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson-raw WR ability, crazy playmaker
.
.
.
.
.
3. Everyone else-meh/average rookie years

How many Places was "The rookie" the WR corps?
Allen almost gave up right away do to strugle. Became better when others returned to remove attention and a run game ppl have to respect.

Patterson have been a hell of a returner, but in the 1 round he should be!! There is a run game with AD ppl watching. Other receivers like Jennings ( Rudolpth ) to Draw attention.

Dobson had... Gronk for a few games and became better with him around. Not saying he's the real deal, but plz jugde him in 2-3 years not in the middle of injurys of doom.

 

[Rob0729]

You can't just take Patterson's kick return production away. He was the best KR in the NFL by a pretty decent margin.

I am not taking away. I am just talking about his production as a receiver. If we are compare receiver production for all rookies on offense, you don't add the special teams. The special teams production was great, but it is comparing apples to oranges for this purpose.

 

[everlong]

Looking at Dobson, Thompkins purely by the numbers, Boyce was too small of a sample.

Dobson 37 catches in 74 targets for 514 yards with 4 TDs works out to 7.01 yards per attempt, 50% completion percentage and a 90.99 quarterback rating.

I won't factor in interceptions but I can think of at least one for both Dobson and Thompkins and both hit their hands so that would make it worse.

Thompkins 32 catches 70 targets for 466 yards 4 Tds works out to be 45.7% completion percentage, 6.7 yards per attempt and a 86.96 quarterback rating.

I think coming into the year assuming Gronk and Amendola would carry the load most of us would have been very happy with the yardage and TDs. The completion percentage to get those numbers sucks no matter how you cut it.

Although not apples for apples since the Pats were interested in Emmanuel Sanders here are his rookie year and this past year.

2010: 28/49, 376 yards, 2 TD, 57%, 7.6 YPA, 95.38 QBR
2013: 67/112, 740 yards, 6TD, 59%, 6.8 YPA, 96.06 QBR

He wasn't asked to do as much as a rookie but he really wasn't that much better as time went on. Obviously only a one player comp but if Dobson and Thomkins are only moderately better in year 4 they'll be considered failures.

 

[RobertWeathers]

People are way too harsh and impatient around here.

In KT, BB gets 30 something catches from a rookie UFA with by all accounts nowhere to go but up.

In Dobson, the team gets a similar rookie season as they did with Deion Branch.

Certainly both players can regress and be cut in two years but for rookie WRs in a complicated system with a demanding as hell QB throwing to them and hard-ass perfectionist as a coach, I'm damn pleased with what they accomplished this year and looking forward to 2014.

 

[everlong]

In Dobson, the team gets a similar rookie season as they did with Deion Branch.

I can't find a targets stat for as far back as 2002 but for the record

2002: 43 catches, 489 yards, 2 TDs.
2003: 57, 803 yards, 3TDs.

If Dobson catches (approx with doing the math) 25% more balls, twice the yards and 1.5X the TDs that will be an epic success in year two. Super Bowl MVP in year three........