Patriots 2013 Rookies

[supafly]

I presumed you were counting week six and if we are then it is 24 catches. I don't understand why week six wouldn't be counted. And it is still ridiculous to act like his production dipped by throwing out a stat of 1.5 catches per game over the last ten games when he only played five.

If he didn't play then it is silly to use stats to make it seem like his production went down because of his play on the field.

I was just pointing out his production in the past 10 games when I showed a column of all 3 rookie WRs in an earlier post.

Boyce 8 catches, Dobson 18 catches, and Thompkins 11 catches. Those are the numbers since mid-October ten games ago. The reality was that NONE of our 3 rookie WRs stepped up when they had a great opportunity. It's also one of the more important reasons why Edelman has had so much production. The reality is that Brady really has no other trusted WR to go to on a regular basis, which means that he's seeing a lot more looks than anyone else most of the time.

I chose the past 10 games because it was easier for me to figure out an average of per game catches, as it was a nice round number I also thought it'd be more appropriate to show what the 'REAL' offense looked like since that was the period where Gronkowski coincidentally was returning.

The bottom line is that we all expect a nice 2nd yr leap, but still have a weakness at the position and would like to add a more experienced player who's affordable like E.Sanders.

 

[supafly]

Just to be clear and not coming off as terribly pessimistic, I think we got the best of the first rd trade w/MIN, and we saw some of these rookies get some valuable live game reps, which was very important---and also likely the point of Brady6's thread.

This year could provide a solid base foundation for many of the rookies this year as they attempt to make a 2nd yr leap.

 

[Rob0729]

I was just pointing out his production in the past 10 games when I showed a column of all 3 rookie WRs in an earlier post.

Boyce 8 catches, Dobson 18 catches, and Thompkins 11 catches. Those are the numbers since mid-October ten games ago. The reality was that NONE of our 3 rookie WRs stepped up when they had a great opportunity. It's also one of the more important reasons why Edelman has had so much production. The reality is that Brady really has no other trusted WR to go to on a regular basis, which means that he's seeing a lot more looks than anyone else most of the time.

I chose the past 10 games because it was easier for me to figure out an average of per game catches, as it was a nice round number I also thought it'd be more appropriate to show what the 'REAL' offense looked like since that was the period where Gronkowski coincidentally was returning.

The bottom line is that we all expect a nice 2nd yr leap, but still have a weakness at the position and would like to add a more experienced player who's affordable like E.Sanders.

Considering both Dobson and Thompkins both missed times with injuries over the last ten games, your analysis is a bit misleading. Dobson missed three games and was limited in two (he was a primary target in the last game prior to his injury). Thompkins missed the last three games prior to the Bills game and was limited in the last game. Both guys only played in 12 games this year and both were either out or limited due to injuries for a large part of the last ten games.

Dobson definitely began to step up the last three or four games prior to his injuries especially his 130 yard, 2 TD performance vs. the Steelers. If you look at the game logs, his last three or four games before he was injured he was targeted about twice as much as Edelman was. Edelman didn't become the primary WR until Dobson went out.

Dobson's game log
Aaron Dobson Game By Game Stats and Performance - New England Patriots - ESPN

Edelman's game log
Julian Edelman Game By Game Stats and Performance - New England Patriots - ESPN

Thompkins had his moments, but was not nearly as consistent as Dobson/

 

[Rob0729]

The truth is that he did okay in some aspects with flashes at times, and that we really have no idea if he'll be the next Randy Moss or Chad Jackson. I would absolutely disagree with anyone who'd be ready to give up on him, but I'd also disagree with these assessments that he had some great rookie season too. The truth is that one of these guys should have stepped up under the circumstances, and that's really yet to happen to this point outside of Brady trusting Julian Edelman every time he throws the ball.

It is safe to say that Dobson is not the next Chad Jackson. He has shown more his rookie season than Jackson showed his entire career.

I would say prior to his injury Dobson had a solid rookie season. He started off slow, but when he grasped the offense, he became a primary target in this offense. His last three games before injury, he had more receptions than any receiver including Gronk. Based on his product his last three or four games prior to his injury, he was on target for about 800 yards and 7-8 TDs if he didn't get injured. Not enough to put him in the OROY discussion, but good enough for a very good season for a rookie.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

It is safe to say that Dobson is not the next Chad Jackson. He has shown more his rookie season than Jackson showed his entire career.

I would say prior to his injury Dobson had a solid rookie season. He started off slow, but when he grasped the offense, he became a primary target in this offense. His last three games before injury, he had more receptions than any receiver including Gronk. Based on his product his last three or four games prior to his injury, he was on target for about 800 yards and 7-8 TDs if he didn't get injured. Not enough to put him in the OROY discussion, but good enough for a very good season for a rookie.

Seems like Dobson wore down over the grind of a 16 week schedule. And while he was slow to pick up the offense, once he got it, he showed he could play in the NFL.

Next season he needs to make a year two leap and learn how to be consistent through a 19 game season.

 

[RayClay]

I saw that in Howe's article as well. Not sure why they would continue to play him with a stress fracture?

Because it might be all right, might not. It's definitely not going to completely heal by taking off a few games.

 

[Rob0729]

Seems like Dobson wore down over the grind of a 16 week schedule. And while he was slow to pick up the offense, once he got it, he showed he could play in the NFL.

Next season he needs to make a year two leap and learn how to be consistent through a 19 game season.

I disagree about him wearing down. He was reaching his peak when he got injured. He reportedly has a stress fracture in his foot. That has nothing to do with being worn down. That could happen to anyone.

Luckily, stress fractures are not those type of injuries that fall into the injury prone category. Unluckily, it puts his availability for the playoffs in doubt if his injury on Sunday was related to that.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Seems like Dobson wore down over the grind of a 16 week schedule. And while he was slow to pick up the offense, once he got it, he showed he could play in the NFL.

Next season he needs to make a year two leap and learn how to be consistent through a 19 game season.

It would be nice if Dobson can make the jump like Alshon Jeffrey did for Chicago and like Michael Floyd did in Arizona. Can't make that jump if you can't stay on the field though. Hopefully he's the next Alshon Jeffrey instead of the next Hart Lee Dykes.

 

[Kdo5]

It would be nice if Dobson can make the jump like Alshon Jeffrey did for Chicago and like Michael Floyd did in Arizona. Can't make that jump if you can't stay on the field though. Hopefully he's the next Alshon Jeffrey instead of the next Hart Lee Dykes.

Well as Rob said, it is more of the injury can happen to anyone, it's not a sign that he is some injury prone player who can't stay on the field. Is Vereen injury prone? Seems like it but we wouldn't say his broken wrist which kept him out 8 weeks happened because he is injury prone. Can happen to anyone at any time.

 

[strngplyr]

Whether he's missed games or not is irrelevant. We're discussing reasons why people think he had such a good year.

How can you possibly discuss his production and call it irrelevant that he missed games?

His production per game is double what you are trying to call it. It is more than relevant to discuss the fact that you can't be targeted if you're not on the field. He was being targeted a lot for a Patriots rookie and was making some good plays. He then got hurt. You are attempting to compare his production in 5 games to a player who played 10 in your time frame (I know you didn't start the comparison but your argument was dobson's 5 vs Edelmans 10).

It's like the fans who try to remove special teams TDs from their defensive scoring stats to improve their ranking without doing the same for the other 31. Can't compare apples to oranges. You need to put everyone on level ground. That includes playing time.

 

[supafly]

Considering both Dobson and Thompkins both missed times with injuries over the last ten games, your analysis is a bit misleading.

I took the last 10 games of the season since it coincided with the return of Gronkowski and also since it was the easiest way to determine average catches per game with a nice round number of 10. The 3 rookie WRs produced 18 (Dobson), 11 (Thompkins), and 8 catches (Boyce) in the NEP final ten games of the season from mid-October on, which was my point. It wasn't meant to undermine Aaron Dobson or his potential for the future. We simply have a difference of opinion on how good of a year he had. I think he was okay/mediocre when you take the circumstances into account, whereas you think he was good.

Unfortunately, we could've used one of those 3 rookie WRs to step up under these circumstances on the year, and that simply didn't happen.

The bottom line is that he showed flashes, and seems to have a decent shot at making a jump in year #2, but I hardly think that we know enough about him as of yet, and that would be the same with all 3 of the rookie WRs. You may not care for the "we don't know if he's Moss or Chad Jackson yet" comparison, but it'd be very realistic to remove Chad Jackson's name and replace it with Brandon Tate---who everyone was high on after his redshirted rookie season.

TATE: 432 receiving yds/ 3 TD receiving /2 Kickoff return TD's/ 18.0 YPC


DOBSON: 519 receiving yds/ 4 TD receiving / 14.3 YPC


We'll obviously know a lot more next year and should feel good that we have a younger, fast, receiver with potential. Our only disagreement is to exactly how good Dobson looked, nothing more. I am not trying to say that he necessarily looked "bad," I just don't personally agree with how good you are claiming him to have looked.

 

[Kdo5]

I took the last 10 games of the season since it coincided with the return of Gronkowski and also since it was the easiest way to determine average catches per game with a nice round number of 10. The 3 rookie WRs produced 18 (Dobson), 11 (Thompkins), and 8 catches (Boyce) in the NEP final ten games of the season from mid-October on, which was my point. It wasn't meant to undermine Aaron Dobson or his potential for the future. We simply have a difference of opinion on how good of a year he had. I think he was okay/mediocre when you take the circumstances into account, whereas you think he was good.

Unfortunately, we could've used one of those 3 rookie WRs to step up under these circumstances on the year, and that simply didn't happen.

The bottom line is that he showed flashes, and seems to have a decent shot at making a jump in year #2, but I hardly think that we know enough about him as of yet, and that would be the same with all 3 of the rookie WRs. You may not care for the "we don't know if he's Moss or Chad Jackson yet" comparison, but it'd be very realistic to remove Chad Jackson's name and replace it with Brandon Tate---who everyone was high on after his redshirted rookie season.

TATE: 432 receiving yds/ 3 TD receiving /2 Kickoff return TD's/ 18.0 YPC


DOBSON: 519 receiving yds/ 4 TD receiving / 14.3 YPC


We'll obviously know a lot more next year and should feel good that we have a younger, fast, receiver with potential. Our only disagreement is to exactly how good Dobson looked, nothing more. I am not trying to say that he necessarily looked "bad," I just don't personally agree with how good you are claiming him to have looked.

Yet again you are omitting certain points. Tate played every game. Dobson missed four and the greater part of two more. This why are you making a statistical comparison like that? And that was Tate's second year not his rookie year.

Your main argument is absolutely reasonable but the stats and comparisons you are throwing about don't make sense.

 

[Deus Irae]

I took the last 10 games of the season since it coincided with the return of Gronkowski and also since it was the easiest way to determine average catches per game with a nice round number of 10. The 3 rookie WRs produced 18 (Dobson), 11 (Thompkins), and 8 catches (Boyce) in the NEP final ten games of the season from mid-October on, which was my point. It wasn't meant to undermine Aaron Dobson or his potential for the future. We simply have a difference of opinion on how good of a year he had. I think he was okay/mediocre when you take the circumstances into account, whereas you think he was good.

Unfortunately, we could've used one of those 3 rookie WRs to step up under these circumstances on the year, and that simply didn't happen.

The bottom line is that he showed flashes, and seems to have a decent shot at making a jump in year #2, but I hardly think that we know enough about him as of yet, and that would be the same with all 3 of the rookie WRs. You may not care for the "we don't know if he's Moss or Chad Jackson yet" comparison, but it'd be very realistic to remove Chad Jackson's name and replace it with Brandon Tate---who everyone was high on after his redshirted rookie season.

TATE: 432 receiving yds/ 3 TD receiving /2 Kickoff return TD's/ 18.0 YPC


DOBSON: 519 receiving yds/ 4 TD receiving / 14.3 YPC


We'll obviously know a lot more next year and should feel good that we have a younger, fast, receiver with potential. Our only disagreement is to exactly how good Dobson looked, nothing more. I am not trying to say that he necessarily looked "bad," I just don't personally agree with how good you are claiming him to have looked.

Nothing wrong with your position. Nothing wrong with the point you were making about the stretch of games, either.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

I took the last 10 games of the season since it coincided with the return of Gronkowski and also since it was the easiest way to determine average catches per game with a nice round number of 10. The 3 rookie WRs produced 18 (Dobson), 11 (Thompkins), and 8 catches (Boyce) in the NEP final ten games of the season from mid-October on, which was my point. It wasn't meant to undermine Aaron Dobson or his potential for the future. We simply have a difference of opinion on how good of a year he had. I think he was okay/mediocre when you take the circumstances into account, whereas you think he was good.

Unfortunately, we could've used one of those 3 rookie WRs to step up under these circumstances on the year, and that simply didn't happen.

The bottom line is that he showed flashes, and seems to have a decent shot at making a jump in year #2, but I hardly think that we know enough about him as of yet, and that would be the same with all 3 of the rookie WRs. You may not care for the "we don't know if he's Moss or Chad Jackson yet" comparison, but it'd be very realistic to remove Chad Jackson's name and replace it with Brandon Tate---who everyone was high on after his redshirted rookie season.

TATE: 432 receiving yds/ 3 TD receiving /2 Kickoff return TD's/ 18.0 YPC


DOBSON: 519 receiving yds/ 4 TD receiving / 14.3 YPC


We'll obviously know a lot more next year and should feel good that we have a younger, fast, receiver with potential. Our only disagreement is to exactly how good Dobson looked, nothing more. I am not trying to say that he necessarily looked "bad," I just don't personally agree with how good you are claiming him to have looked.

If you want to compare them, compare them apples to apples. True rookie seasons and number of games played. Dobson was on record to get 800 yards, yet he got 519 when he missed several games to tates "rookie" season and tate played more games in that "rookie" season.

Add in that Dobson and KT are the most productive rookie wide outs in bb era with the pats, they show how they could be very good come next season. When Dobson learned the offense, he was growing as Brady's top target.

 

[supafly]

Your main argument is absolutely reasonable but the stats and comparisons you are throwing about don't make sense.

18 catches since mid-October isn't anything to really stand out, is it? You seem to be making excuses that it wasn't his fault due to injuries, or that I'm skewing the numbers, etc---but the bottom line is that I didn't see nearly as much as you seemed to have. The good thing, as I've pointed out, is that he seems to have a great chance for a year #2 leap and hopefully should continue to grow. I would agree with you that he could be one of the year #2 breakout candidates. I just don't agree that he had some great rookie year.

He had some flashes, which I've pointed out many times. He also dropped a lot of balls, missed 1/4 to 1/3 or so of his games, and....just didn't bottom line produce much since mid-October (not that he had some great Sept/early Oct either). I'm not coming close to saying that I don't think he has a chance to succeed here, I'm just saying that we have a difference in opinions as to how good he was in his rookie year. There were some comments along the way about a OROY candidate, and to me that's hilarious.

 

[supafly]

If you want to compare them, compare them apples to apples. True rookie seasons and number of games played. Dobson was on record to get 800 yards, yet he got 519 when he missed several games to tates "rookie" season and tate played more games in that "rookie" season.

Add in that Dobson and KT are the most productive rookie wide outs in bb era with the pats, they show how they could be very good come next season. When Dobson learned the offense, he was growing as Brady's top target.

I'm not going to keep going round and round. It's quite possible that maybe you weren't here at the time, or maybe just weren't paying attention, but when Tate was selected in 2009 it was under the premise that he would have a red shirted rookie season and start in 2010, which is basically what happened.

He was able to play some very limited snaps in 2009 where he didn't catch a pass, but yes--2010 was basically when he was first able to see extended action at the position. That is why I used the term "red-shirted" rookie season.

I can respect the fact that you don't agree with the comparison, and that's fine, it's doesn't really matter anyway. The point was that we have no idea how good any of the 3 rookie WRs will be, as any of them can be very good, serviceable, or not see much of the field. Obviously, we'd all agree that Dobson's chances of succeeding are the highest of the three players, but many of us would still like to see the position addressed a bit more with the addition of another player.

 

[captain stone]

Absolutely. I think we'd all want to see a better overall WR brought in, and one would assume that they may have been more aggressive and/or wouldn't have let Welker/Llyod leave so easily had they known the situations with Hernandez and Gronk.

The concern I'd have is whether the team could afford such a player, along with the usual worry about whether or not they could pick up the system well enough to be worth their cost.

I suppose a guy like Emmanuel Sanders may be a possibility again depending on his price demands. I think he'd probably be the ceiling though. Of course we'd all like to see Edelman retained too, as long as it's an affordable deal. Sanders would be the upgrade that you're looking for in terms of Thompkins, although I don't know how comparable their specific responsibilities would be either.

Sanders is another possibility, as are Eric Decker & Riley Cooper. And even when taking
Minitron's new contract & Amendola's overpaid one into consideration, I still believe that
there needs to be more money made available for the WR position next year.
Not investing more in the position (and at TE post-Prisoner) this year will almost certainly
cost the Pats an AFC championship.

 

[Rob0729]

I took the last 10 games of the season since it coincided with the return of Gronkowski and also since it was the easiest way to determine average catches per game with a nice round number of 10. The 3 rookie WRs produced 18 (Dobson), 11 (Thompkins), and 8 catches (Boyce) in the NEP final ten games of the season from mid-October on, which was my point. It wasn't meant to undermine Aaron Dobson or his potential for the future. We simply have a difference of opinion on how good of a year he had. I think he was okay/mediocre when you take the circumstances into account, whereas you think he was good.

Unfortunately, we could've used one of those 3 rookie WRs to step up under these circumstances on the year, and that simply didn't happen.

The bottom line is that he showed flashes, and seems to have a decent shot at making a jump in year #2, but I hardly think that we know enough about him as of yet, and that would be the same with all 3 of the rookie WRs. You may not care for the "we don't know if he's Moss or Chad Jackson yet" comparison, but it'd be very realistic to remove Chad Jackson's name and replace it with Brandon Tate---who everyone was high on after his redshirted rookie season.

TATE: 432 receiving yds/ 3 TD receiving /2 Kickoff return TD's/ 18.0 YPC


DOBSON: 519 receiving yds/ 4 TD receiving / 14.3 YPC


We'll obviously know a lot more next year and should feel good that we have a younger, fast, receiver with potential. Our only disagreement is to exactly how good Dobson looked, nothing more. I am not trying to say that he necessarily looked "bad," I just don't personally agree with how good you are claiming him to have looked.

I'm sorry, but when you judging a player on how well he played over a stretch of time and you count games he did not play in that equation as a whole, it isn't a valid evaluation.

By your logic, the Pats should have kept Matt Cassel and traded Brady after the 2008 season because Cassel passed for 3693 yards and 21 TDs while Brady was atrocious throwing for only 76 yards and no TDs the entire season. I mean Brady threw for 4.75 yards per game that year. Embarrassing!

It is fair to point out that Dobson was out injured, but it isn't fair to count games that he was out due to injury as if he was active for the game and caught zero balls.

And as pointed out, you are comparing a 16 game season by Tate to a 12 game season (really about 10 1/2 game season) from Dobson. You take a per game played average of each production and Dobson is far superior to Tate's second season.

 

[Rob0729]

18 catches since mid-October isn't anything to really stand out, is it? .

It really stands out when you actually accept the fact that 16 catches were in four games and he missed most of the rest of the season after that. It also stands out when you take into effect that in that four game stretch he had 262 yards and 3 TDs. Over that time he averaged 4 catches for 65.5 yards and 0.75 TDs per game. Not a world beater numbers, but solid for a rookie WR.

Again, you are spinning it as if he played every one of the last 10 games and his performance is based on those ten games. It isn't the case.

 

[nabwong]

Boyce is what Vereen used to be I.e. Lots do promise and ability but injured as a rookie and couldn't catch up with play book. Look for him to get healthy this offseason and make a great impact next year. He can play the Edelman role if minitron decides to cash in.