Patriot Economics 101

[Water Boy]

Question:

The Patriots have covered against the spread 7 weeks in a row. If you had placed a $100 bet on the Patriots in week one and then kept rolling-over your initial investment and winnings each subsequent week, how much money would you have made?

Answer:

Week 1: $200
Week 2: $400
Week 3: $800
Week 4: $1,600
Week 5: $3,200
Week 6: $6,400
Week 7: $12,800

If you continued the bet throughout the regular season and the Patriots covered all 16 weeks your balance would be:

$6,553,600

That's Deion Branch money.

Through 19 games:

$52,428,800

Not too shabby.

 

[xmarkd400x]

"If you knew the outcome of a gambling event, and could bet on the winning side every time, you would make money"

 

[PatsWSB47]

"If you knew the outcome of a gambling event, and could bet on the winning side every time, you would make money"

huh, you sure?

 

[psychoPat]

And you'd die happy ... because
they'd kill you
before they'd pay you.

Seriously, if this keeps up much longer
... it'll become comical seeing the spreads required
to draw any action on the opponent.

Say, after the Indy game and the bye.

 

[xmarkd400x]

huh, you sure?

Econ 101. Duh.

 

[PatsWSB47]

Econ 101. Duh.

So let me get this straight. if you know who will win and then bet on them then you win???????? Thanks for the enlightening posts. I never would have figured that out!

 

[jbb9s]

The biggest line in the history of the league was in the 49ers/Chargers superbowl (19 pts). I believe the Pats have Miami at home in December......20+????

 

[goalkeepr]

You have to bet $110 to win $100.
If you lose, you lose 100% of your money. If you win, you win ~91% back.

So, assuming you bet $100 to win $90.91 (bookie profit in parenthesis):

Week 1: $190.91 ($9.09)
Week 2: $346.46 ($17.36)
Week 3: $695.79 ($33.13)
Week 4: $1,328.33 ($63.25)
Week 5: $2,535.91 ($120.76)
Week 6: $4,841.27 ($230.54)
Week 7: $9,242.43 ($440.12)

You won $9,242.43 by doubling down. The bookie got $914.24 risk-free.

After 16 weeks, you'd have $3,113,334, and the bookie will have pocketed $311,323.
Get all 19, and you're up $21,662,350, and the bookie's up $2,166,225.

The bookie takes in $200, and pays $191 out. The 4.5% guaranteed money is the reason that bookies exist in the first place. The house always wins in the long run.

That's Gambling Economics 101.

 

[AStack75]

The biggest line in the history of the league was in the 49ers/Chargers superbowl (19 pts). I believe the Pats have Miami at home in December......20+????

I'm curious what the spread will be versus the Jets. That's one game that I could see Belichick legitimately running up the score if he has the chance. Bet the over that game.

 

[DynastyDriven]

If you want to take a gamble (no pun intended) this week bet on the Redskins for the money line +1000 this week.

wager $100 and win $1,000 if the redskins cover

 

[PatsWorldChamps]

If you want to take a gamble (no pun intended) this week bet on the Redskins for the money line +1000 this week.

wager $100 and win $1,000 if the redskins cover

no, the moneyline only pays if the skins win, not cover

 

[shakadave]

You have to bet $110 to win $100.
If you lose, you lose 100% of your money. If you win, you win ~91% back.

So, assuming you bet $100 to win $90.91 (bookie profit in parenthesis):

Week 1: $190.91 ($9.09)
Week 2: $346.46 ($17.36)
Week 3: $695.79 ($33.13)
Week 4: $1,328.33 ($63.25)
Week 5: $2,535.91 ($120.76)
Week 6: $4,841.27 ($230.54)
Week 7: $9,242.43 ($440.12)

You won $9,242.43 by doubling down. The bookie got $914.24 risk-free.

After 16 weeks, you'd have $3,113,334, and the bookie will have pocketed $311,323.
Get all 19, and you're up $21,662,350, and the bookie's up $2,166,225.

The bookie takes in $200, and pays $191 out. The 4.5% guaranteed money is the reason that bookies exist in the first place. The house always wins in the long run.

That's Gambling Economics 101.

This is not right. I believe you need Gambling 102. If you win all your bets, the bookie --- I'm actually envisioning a legal casino in Las Vegas --- gets no cut of anything. You get all your bet money back along with your winnings. It's when you lose that the house makes money, since you lose more than winning would have won you. The house makes money in the long run, assuming roughly equal amounts of winners and losers, but in the scenario above, they don't make a dime off you.

 

[AStack75]

no, the moneyline only pays if the skins win, not cover

I was just gonna say... I might be very tempted to take that bet.

 

[goalkeepr]

You get all your bet money back along with your winnings.

Your winnings are your initial bet, plus 91%.

It's when you lose that the house makes money, since you lose more than winning would have won you.

That's not correct. The line is the number at which bettors are evenly divided between both teams.

"Pats by 20" doesn't necessarily mean that some computer simulation has determined that to be the most likely outcome. It just means that a 20-point incentive needs to be offered in order to get 50% of bettors to choose the other team.

At that point, half of all bettors will lose all of their money. The half of bettors who win will get their money back, plus 91% of the losers' money.

The house keeps 9%.

 

[Water Boy]

You have to bet $110 to win $100.
If you lose, you lose 100% of your money. If you win, you win ~91% back.

So, assuming you bet $100 to win $90.91 (bookie profit in parenthesis):

Week 1: $190.91 ($9.09)
Week 2: $346.46 ($17.36)
Week 3: $695.79 ($33.13)
Week 4: $1,328.33 ($63.25)
Week 5: $2,535.91 ($120.76)
Week 6: $4,841.27 ($230.54)
Week 7: $9,242.43 ($440.12)

You won $9,242.43 by doubling down. The bookie got $914.24 risk-free.

After 16 weeks, you'd have $3,113,334, and the bookie will have pocketed $311,323.
Get all 19, and you're up $21,662,350, and the bookie's up $2,166,225.

The bookie takes in $200, and pays $191 out. The 4.5% guaranteed money is the reason that bookies exist in the first place. The house always wins in the long run.

That's Gambling Economics 101.

That's Gambling Economics 102. We haven't got that far yet in 101.