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Patriot Economics 101

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by kurtinelson, Oct 27, 2007.

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  1. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    #37 Jersey

    Question:

    The Patriots have covered against the spread 7 weeks in a row. If you had placed a $100 bet on the Patriots in week one and then kept rolling-over your initial investment and winnings each subsequent week, how much money would you have made?

    Answer:

    Week 1: $200
    Week 2: $400
    Week 3: $800
    Week 4: $1,600
    Week 5: $3,200
    Week 6: $6,400
    Week 7: $12,800

    If you continued the bet throughout the regular season and the Patriots covered all 16 weeks your balance would be:

    $6,553,600

    That's Deion Branch money.

    Through 19 games:

    $52,428,800

    Not too shabby.
  2. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    "If you knew the outcome of a gambling event, and could bet on the winning side every time, you would make money"
  3. PatsWSB47

    PatsWSB47 Rookie

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    #12 Jersey


    huh, you sure?
  4. psychoPat

    psychoPat Role Player PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And you'd die happy ... because
    they'd kill you
    before they'd pay you.

    Seriously, if this keeps up much longer
    ... it'll become comical seeing the spreads required
    to draw any action on the opponent.

    Say, after the Indy game and the bye.
  5. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    Econ 101. Duh.
  6. PatsWSB47

    PatsWSB47 Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    So let me get this straight. if you know who will win and then bet on them then you win???????? Thanks for the enlightening posts. I never would have figured that out!
  7. jbb9s

    jbb9s Rookie

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    The biggest line in the history of the league was in the 49ers/Chargers superbowl (19 pts). I believe the Pats have Miami at home in December......20+????
  8. goalkeepr

    goalkeepr PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    You have to bet $110 to win $100.
    If you lose, you lose 100% of your money. If you win, you win ~91% back.

    So, assuming you bet $100 to win $90.91 (bookie profit in parenthesis):

    Week 1: $190.91 ($9.09)
    Week 2: $346.46 ($17.36)
    Week 3: $695.79 ($33.13)
    Week 4: $1,328.33 ($63.25)
    Week 5: $2,535.91 ($120.76)
    Week 6: $4,841.27 ($230.54)
    Week 7: $9,242.43 ($440.12)

    You won $9,242.43 by doubling down. The bookie got $914.24 risk-free.

    After 16 weeks, you'd have $3,113,334, and the bookie will have pocketed $311,323.
    Get all 19, and you're up $21,662,350, and the bookie's up $2,166,225.

    The bookie takes in $200, and pays $191 out. The 4.5% guaranteed money is the reason that bookies exist in the first place. The house always wins in the long run.

    That's Gambling Economics 101.
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2007
  9. AStack75

    AStack75 Rookie

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    I'm curious what the spread will be versus the Jets. That's one game that I could see Belichick legitimately running up the score if he has the chance. Bet the over that game.
  10. DynastyDriven

    DynastyDriven Rookie

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    If you want to take a gamble (no pun intended) this week bet on the Redskins for the money line +1000 this week.

    wager $100 and win $1,000 if the redskins cover
  11. PatsWorldChamps

    PatsWorldChamps Rookie

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    no, the moneyline only pays if the skins win, not cover
  12. shakadave

    shakadave Rookie

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    This is not right. I believe you need Gambling 102. If you win all your bets, the bookie --- I'm actually envisioning a legal casino in Las Vegas --- gets no cut of anything. You get all your bet money back along with your winnings. It's when you lose that the house makes money, since you lose more than winning would have won you. The house makes money in the long run, assuming roughly equal amounts of winners and losers, but in the scenario above, they don't make a dime off you.
  13. AStack75

    AStack75 Rookie

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    I was just gonna say... I might be very tempted to take that bet.
  14. goalkeepr

    goalkeepr PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #95 Jersey

    Your winnings are your initial bet, plus 91%.

    That's not correct. The line is the number at which bettors are evenly divided between both teams.

    "Pats by 20" doesn't necessarily mean that some computer simulation has determined that to be the most likely outcome. It just means that a 20-point incentive needs to be offered in order to get 50% of bettors to choose the other team.

    At that point, half of all bettors will lose all of their money. The half of bettors who win will get their money back, plus 91% of the losers' money.

    The house keeps 9%.
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2007
  15. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    #37 Jersey

    That's Gambling Economics 102. We haven't got that far yet in 101.
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