Patfans Draft Forum mock thread -Feb 2009

[Box_O_Rocks]

For me, I was surprised to find that the big tipping-point decision was about defensive ends. I'd expect one of Sintim, English, Barwin etc. to be around in the 2nd; likewise one of the CBs, OGs and safties. Pick up another 2nd in a Cassel trade, be flexible about trading up with later picks, and you should be in good shape. But at DE it's starting to look like Jackson, Gilbert or bust, and given the number of teams likely in the 3-4 DE market I expect Gilbert to rise very fast.

I'm expecting Gilbert to go in the 2nd round too. As much as I like him, I felt the team had enough depth on roster, and there are enough later round/UDFA kids who could develop nicely (like Wright and LeKevin), to make him more of a luxury pick.

 

[dryheat44]

OK -- now that a bunch of you have done the exercise: Which players did you find yourself carefully structuring your draft around?

I often find that's the most revealing part of doing this kind of mock. It helps you realize which players have the rarest skill sets, which positions have talent range gaps, etc.

Alphonso Smith was the guy for me. I would have loved to take one of Britton, Beatty, or Jason Smith there, but I'd hope one lasted long enough to be within reach of a trade up. Sintim gave me great pause, but I was hoping he'd last long enough to be within reach of a trade-up also (don't know which way I'd go, forced to choose). However, in the end, Smith looks to provide the most bang for the buck at that slot considering the depth of the relative positions....I also feel he's probably the only player available that could come in as a starter in September 2009.

I like Ziggy Hood as the rare body-type athlete in the second if Sintim or one of the OTs are unavailable. This is where the Matt Cassel trade will be key. Another pick in the late first or early second would net Sintim or Britton/Beatty/Smith in addition to Smith.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'll give you a different take. I don't get married to individual players to "build my draft around". That's because the draft is such a fluid process that you could easily find the player you want taken when you're picking. Then you need to scramble to take your backup guy.

What I will say is this, I like to take the Double Down approach for positions of need. We saw this last year when BB drafted both Wheatley and Wilhite for the CB position. He also took Mayo and Crable as linebackers. In the past he took Thomas and Mills as tightends, etc.

I've tried to reflect this in my recent mock. I doubled down on outside linebackers, inside linebackers, corners, safeties, and even wide receivers. But in reality it's pretty difficult to 'double down' on multiple positions without using a lot of picks so I think at most that will happen to two positions this year, when we see it happen we'll see a clear indicator on what BB thought needed the most improvement/help.

The players that are flexible to play two positions allow you to effectively 'double' down on two positions with just 3 players. Example: Connor Barwin projects to OLB/TE for us. That means by taking English, Barwin, and Casey we've effectively 'double downed' on both outside linebackers and tightends.

I suspect that Box finds Sintim indispensable because he can be projected to either ILB or OLB. This allows a lot of flexibility while drafting as well as creating 'double downs' for positions of perceived need.

Interesting thought process. I used your double down approach for S in this draft. You've pegged my thoughts on Sintim, his versatility (as I project him) gave me more freedom to commit to Barwin, but I was weighing Eric Woods and Jarron Gilbert at 58 too.

It now looks like NFL Draft Scout has updated their rankings because Gilbert has jumped a round and Jarius Byrd has dropped into the 3rd. Sintim looks to have slipped a couple slots too. I'll need to re-mock it again using the new rankings.

 

[BPF]

Don't agree with CBS rankings on some players but I went with it for the sake of this thread. We all know a lot of things will change depending on FA and depending on the on-going scouting process.

Here goes:
1.1- #23 OLB Clay Matthews, USC
A blue-collar player who is also gifted athletically. Flew under the radar most of his college career but NFL people recently started taking notice of his tremendous skill set. Is one of the top 3-4 OLBs in this draft.

2.2- #47 (SD) DE Jaron Gilbert, San Jose State
A big (6-5, 287) DE with a great first step. His combo of length, power and freakish athleticism makes him a perfect fit as a 5-technique 3-4 DE. Reminds some of current Ravens DE Trevor Pryce.

3.2- #58 FS Louis Delmas, Western Michigan
A very physical player who is a very solid tackler. Is equally adept vs the run and pass. Very fluid safety who displays no stiffness. Will be a great pro.

4.3- #89 OG Trevor Canfield, Cincinnati
A big (6-5, 305), tough OG with a mean streak and agility to get to the 2nd level. Displays good balance and is solid in pass protection. Can pull well.

5.3- #97 (Comp Samuel) ILB Frantz Joseph, Florida Atlantic
A physical LB who is very active near the LOS. Very productive player over the past 2 yrs. Had 154 tackles, 9 TFL this past season. Plays with a mean streak and is a vicious hitter. MVP of the Texas vs. the Nation Bowl game. Displayed a nose for the ball in the game, recording an INT and fumble recovery. He can be a little stiff but has very impressive closing speed. Left off Combine list so he may sneak into the 4th Rd but I doubt he would be available at the Pats next pick.

6.4- #124 CB Kevin Barnes, Maryland
Was having a solid senior yr, playing in 7 games before suffering a shoulder injury. Would be a first day prospect if not for the injury. Started every game as a jr and led the team with 4 INTs and 9 PBUs, also had 65 tackles. Has steadily improved since his soph yr. Has great speed and solid instincts for the position, along with being a great athlete with tremendous jumping ability.


7.4- #136 (Comp Stallworth) TE Brian Mandeville, Northeastern
Big target (6-7, 255) who reminds some of former Buffalo Bills TE Pete Metzelars. Has the frame to add additional weight. Has the speed to be a threat down the seam and his height is also a factor there. Can pass protect vs DEs and can also get to the 2nd level and get LBs.

8.5- #158 S Curtis Taylor, LSU
2 year starter replacing LaRon Landry after he was drafted. From a physical standpoint he is exactly what you want in an NFL S, he has size (6-3, 204) and runs well, he is a big hitter, and is effective in the box. Seems to display proper technique vs the pass as well. Stock has slipped as LSU faltered last year. Was considered a possible day 1 pick at one point.

9.5- #167 (Comp Gay) NT Terrance Knighton, Temple
A very big man (6-3, 324) who takes up space and is very effective vs the run. Was a dominator in the East West Shrine game and looked unblockable at times.

10.6- #192 RB Kory Sheets, Purdue
Very productive back who does everything well but has somehow flown under the radar his entire college career. Is Purdue’s all time leader in total and rushing TDs. Finished his career at Purdue with 3,341 rush yds (5 yds per carry) and 48 rush TDs, 814 rec yds on 108 receptions (7.5 avg per rec) and 5 rec TDs. Is also a solid ST player, was a KR for Purdue and returned a career long 61 yds in Mobile and also returned a punt for a TD at Purdue. Is a solid blocker, has soft hands and a solid frame and really understands the passing game from his time at Purdue. May not be a full time back (5-11, 205) but can be a change of pace type and a solid candidate for a 3rd down role.

11.7- #230 DE Zach Potter, Nebraska
Has a real knack for knocking down passes (six last season) and blocking kicks (3 last season). He tied for the Nebraska team lead with 5.5 sacks and was 2nd with 14 TFLs. He also had 2 INTs.

 

[BPF]

For me, I was surprised to find that the big tipping-point decision was about defensive ends. I'd expect one of Sintim, English, Barwin etc. to be around in the 2nd; likewise one of the CBs, OGs and safties. Pick up another 2nd in a Cassel trade, be flexible about trading up with later picks, and you should be in good shape. But at DE it's starting to look like Jackson, Gilbert or bust, and given the number of teams likely in the 3-4 DE market I expect Gilbert to rise very fast.

Don't forget about Everette Pedescleaux, DE from Northern Iowa. This kid was a great bball player in high school so it took him a little while to develop as a DL on the college level but he had a breakout season last yr.w/62 tackles, 11½ TFLs and 6.5 sacks. He is big (6-6, 305), has long arms and has a super quick 1st step. An excellent athlete reminding some of former Giants DE George Martin in that regard although a lot bigger. Works hard and is tough. Is very competitive and doesn’t take plays off. Can also play inside. Although still green technique wise he has all the tools to develop into a solid player. Looks like a 5-technique 3-4 DE.

 

[BradyManny]

Alphonso Smith was the guy for me. I would have loved to take one of Britton, Beatty, or Jason Smith there, but I'd hope one lasted long enough to be within reach of a trade up. Sintim gave me great pause, but I was hoping he'd last long enough to be within reach of a trade-up also (don't know which way I'd go, forced to choose). However, in the end, Smith looks to provide the most bang for the buck at that slot considering the depth of the relative positions....I also feel he's probably the only player available that could come in as a starter in September 2009.

I like Ziggy Hood as the rare body-type athlete in the second if Sintim or one of the OTs are unavailable. This is where the Matt Cassel trade will be key. Another pick in the late first or early second would net Sintim or Britton/Beatty/Smith in addition to Smith.

These are pretty much my feelings as well. I'm hoping Cassel can net us a high second (and some other picks, maybe a future first), from either KC or Detroit. Then at #23, we have the luxury of trying to trade down and or into next year, or peraps taking any of the O-linemen who may have dropped. With the high 2nd rounder, we can take whoever out of Smith, Sintim, etc., are available.

 

[BradyManny]

Interesting thought process. I used your double down approach for S in this draft.

I like the double-down/stockpile idea for a couple reasons.

One, the more obvious - the draft is an inexact science, not every pick is going to pan out...two chances is better than one.

Two - in the case of Wheatley/Wilhite, not only have you created a natural source of competition for one another, but they will train, develop and learn together. It's probably more efficient & effective to teach a rookie when he is amongst one or two other guys who are in the same situation. We have that going on right now at LB & CB.

 

[dryheat44]

I like the double-down/stockpile idea for a couple reasons.

One, the more obvious - the draft is an inexact science, not every pick is going to pan out...two chances is better than one.

Two - in the case of Wheatley/Wilhite, not only have you created a natural source of competition for one another, but they will train, develop and learn together. It's probably more efficient & effective to teach a rookie when he is amongst one or two other guys who are in the same situation. We have that going on right now at LB & CB.

I think the double down phenomenon is simply a function of a position having good depth one year, and not so much the next. Last year's CB class blows this one out of the water. This year is probably the year to double down on offensive linemen...because the class is extraordinarily deep.

 

[DaBruinz]

Don't agree with CBS rankings on some players but I went with it for the sake of this thread. We all know a lot of things will change depending on FA and depending on the on-going scouting process.

Here goes:
1.1- #23 OLB Clay Matthews, USC
2.2- #47 (SD) DE Jaron Gilbert, San Jose State
3.2- #58 FS Louis Delmas, Western Michigan
4.3- #89 OG Trevor Canfield, Cincinnati
5.3- #97 (Comp Samuel) ILB Frantz Joseph, Florida Atlantic
6.4- #124 CB Kevin Barnes, Maryland
7.4- #136 (Comp Stallworth) TE Brian Mandeville, Northeastern
8.5- #158 S Curtis Taylor, LSU
9.5- #167 (Comp Gay) NT Terrance Knighton, Temple
10.6- #192 RB Kory Sheets, Purdue
11.7- #230 DE Zach Potter, Nebraska

I don't think that Barnes and Taylor are Patriots type players for various reasons. Taylor likes to hit, but not tackle. Barnes doesn't have that quick twitch that the Pats like in their corners. Barnes also has issues playing the run I think you really reached on Frantz. Unless you see him taking a Tatupu like rise after the combine.

Potter is intriguing.

 

[TheKraftyOne]

I'll use your first set of picks and your rule "You cannot pick anyone ranked above the Patriots picks" My first two picks represent good value and should be risers so I'm picking them:

23: OLB Larry English. A pass rusher is still my mantra even if he has to be eased into the rotation. He's tough, physical and plays with a high motor.
47: CB Coye Francies. He's deceptively physical, did I say he's physical? Well, he is if I forgot to mention it. Excellent intangibles, athletic and 6' tall!!!!!!
58: OLB/TE Conner Barwin. He showed some decent TE skills at the Senior Bowl and has a Vrabel thing going on. His versatility could get him PT in all three phases of the game.
89 RB Jeremiah Johnson. He was a mountain man before but now he's the next Kevin Faulk. Good hands and has a bit of Maurice Jones-Drew in him.
120 Xavier Fulton OT. A player with excellent natural athleticism for his size but he's raw after switching from the D-line. He could possibly play on both sides of the ball if injuries hit but I like him on the O-line at either guard or tackle. A big upside with some versatility.
151 WR Quan Cosby. An older player but they can get five years out of him. Good hands, route running, athletcism and toughness. Fiery competitor and good character. He represents good value here.
186 DT Terrance Taylor. Nose tackle fodder. Fell from grace as a 4-3 DT but the Pats don't want one.
217 CB Jerraud Powers. Can't say no to this 5'9 corner. My steal of the draft if he's there at 217.

Now remember, I followed the original stated rules.

 

[BPF]

I don't think that Barnes and Taylor are Patriots type players for various reasons. Taylor likes to hit, but not tackle. Barnes doesn't have that quick twitch that the Pats like in their corners. Barnes also has issues playing the run I think you really reached on Frantz. Unless you see him taking a Tatupu like rise after the combine.

Potter is intriguing.

Wes Bunting from NFP rates Joseph at 82 and Barnes at 88 on his top 100: The National Football Post | NFP Updated Top 100

82. ILB Frantz Joseph, Florida Atlantic

88. CB Kevin Barnes, Maryland

Taylor has loads of talent but I agree with the tackling bit, Potter will probably not last till the 7th but I stuck to the CBS board as requested.

 

[Warren94]

Since you asked.

- Unger is okay, but what is your vision for him? Starter?
- Kruger is okay, but what is your vision for him? How is he an improvement on the current OLB prospects on roster?
- Barwin is my binky, but what is your vision for him compared to Kruger, Crable, and Co.?
- Johnson is good.
- Walker, why? His NFL Draft Scout profile describes him as a one-gap DT. They also note he's "too short and lacks the girth to fit some defensive systems." That sounds like he's 180 out for NE's DL profile.
- Purvis is good.
- Lankster is good.
- Johnson is good.

Unger I think would be a good fit especially with Jarvis as a potential cap casualty and Seymour Wilfork situation next season. Unger I feel can slide in where Neal is at Right guard.

Thanks for your insight

 

[DaBruinz]

Wes Bunting from NFP rates Joseph at 82 and Barnes at 88 on his top 100: The National Football Post | NFP Updated Top 100

Taylor has loads of talent but I agree with the tackling bit, Potter will probably not last till the 7th but I stuck to the CBS board as requested.

Who is Wes Bunting? I've never heard of him. Frank Cooney has been doing scouting and such for numerous years. Cooney is the one who runs NFLDraftScout.com. Its who the NFL and now CBS use for their draft prospect information.

I think that Bunting has both way too high, but that is my opinion.

 

[DaBruinz]

Unger I think would be a good fit especially with Jarvis as a potential cap casualty and Seymour Wilfork situation next season. Unger I feel can slide in where Neal is at Right guard.

Thanks for your insight

What do Unger (A C/G/T) and Jarvis Green (DT) have in common?

Why would Jarvis been a cap casualty? Do you really think the Pats need the 4.8 million that would be saved by cutting him?

 

[aaron spacemuseum]

Who is Wes Bunting? I've never heard of him. Frank Cooney has been doing scouting and such for numerous years. Cooney is the one who runs NFLDraftScout.com. Its who the NFL and now CBS use for their draft prospect information.

I think that Bunting has both way too high, but that is my opinion.

Wes Bunting handles the scouting/draft coverage for National Football Post. He's great and I think he's right on about Joseph. If you haven't already, watch some film on him; there's clips online. He is a natural, reminds me of Tedy in his prime the way he slithers through traffic and finds his way to the ball.

He played in the lowest tier allstar game, but he certainly made the most of his opportunity; defensive mvp, interception, fumble recovery. That's a bigtime player making bigtime plays in a bigtime game. He's gonna keep climbing up the boards regardless of the combine snub. If we could get him with our second 3rd, I'd be pretty psyched.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Wes Bunting handles the scouting/draft coverage for National Football Post. He's great and I think he's right on about Joseph. If you haven't already, watch some film on him; there's clips online. He is a natural, reminds me of Tedy in his prime the way he slithers through traffic and finds his way to the ball.

He played in the lowest tier allstar game, but he certainly made the most of his opportunity; defensive mvp, interception, fumble recovery. That's a bigtime player making bigtime plays in a bigtime game. He's gonna keep climbing up the boards regardless of the combine snub. If we could get him with our second 3rd, I'd be pretty psyched.

I watched him in his bowl game against Central Michigan and I've watched him in Texas vs. The Nation. He's a good kid and one who'd be easy to fall in love with (feetyball love for clarification's sake)...but! He's heavy legged, more of a two down thumper. I'd be happy with him in the fourth, if you had to have him, use the Samuel comp pick at the end of the third. Perhaps he can put on another five pounds and improve his quickness working with Coaches Woicik & Nash, but he's not going to be as athletic at SILB as say McKenzie or Sintim or Craig on the Practice Squad.

I'm wondering if Ruud will come off IR bulked up to 240-ish and ready to join Mayo and Guyton inside.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Unger I think would be a good fit especially with Jarvis as a potential cap casualty and Seymour Wilfork situation next season. Unger I feel can slide in where Neal is at Right guard.

Thanks for your insight

I like Unger and agree he'd be a good fit behind Neal and Mankins and Koppen. I just feel he's not a first round value as a reserve interior OL when there's an Alphonso Smith or a Hakeem Nicks or a Larry English etc. available in the late first. Eric Woods a round or so later gives you much of the same skill set and talent at a much cheaper price for a reserve and future starter.

I'm not expecting Jarvis to be cut...I could see him traded to say Denver who is trying to rebuild a defunct defense, but I expect him to be extended in New England (I just picture him a Patriot for life). If Jarvis is to wind up a cap casualty or traded, I'd expect the Pats to target Jarron Gilbert or Tyson Jackson at #23.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Don't agree with CBS rankings on some players but I went with it for the sake of this thread. We all know a lot of things will change depending on FA and depending on the on-going scouting process.

Here goes:
1.1- #23 OLB Clay Matthews, USC
2.2- #47 (SD) DE Jaron Gilbert, San Jose State
3.2- #58 FS Louis Delmas, Western Michigan
4.3- #89 OG Trevor Canfield, Cincinnati
5.3- #97 (Comp Samuel) ILB Frantz Joseph, Florida Atlantic
6.4- #124 CB Kevin Barnes, Maryland
7.4- #136 (Comp Stallworth) TE Brian Mandeville, Northeastern
8.5- #158 S Curtis Taylor, LSU
9.5- #167 (Comp Gay) NT Terrance Knighton, Temple
10.6- #192 RB Kory Sheets, Purdue
11.7- #230 DE Zach Potter, Nebraska

I concur that NFL Draft Scout isn't appreciating some of these folks enough, but they are catching onto Gilbert's value and have recently moved him up a round.

Matthews is okay, but I expect you'll be switching Matthews and Gilbert as we get closer to the draft.

I'd be ecstatic if Delmas actually lasted to NE at 58.

Barnes profile didn't quite sell me, usually it's something like a tackling flag, but I do remember scratching him after reading his profile.

Kory Sheets was looking good until I go to the end of his profile and read a note about him throwing team mates under the bus...

I agree, Potter is going to rise after his Pro-Day, he's looking like a good late round 3-4 DE for NE who could become another Mike Wright.

 

[Warren94]

What do Unger (A C/G/T) and Jarvis Green (DT) have in common?

Why would Jarvis been a cap casualty? Do you really think the Pats need the 4.8 million that would be saved by cutting him?

oops meant Kruger. I think Green will restructure. I do with two qb's making 12m

 

[Warren94]

I like Unger and agree he'd be a good fit behind Neal and Mankins and Koppen. I just feel he's not a first round value as a reserve interior OL when there's an Alphonso Smith or a Hakeem Nicks or a Larry English etc. available in the late first. Eric Woods a round or so later gives you much of the same skill set and talent at a much cheaper price for a reserve and future starter.

I'm not expecting Jarvis to be cut...I could see him traded to say Denver who is trying to rebuild a defunct defense, but I expect him to be extended in New England (I just picture him a Patriot for life). If Jarvis is to wind up a cap casualty or traded, I'd expect the Pats to target Jarron Gilbert or Tyson Jackson at #23.

I agree on Green. I think Wood is the best interior lineman in this draft. I just don't see bill going after a wr in first round but stranger things have happened. I think we can get English in the 2nd round (smaller school but a first round talent). Kruger to me can impact right away great leadership skills, good tackling loves to bull rush but needs to develop another move or two.