Pat Kirwan: The Patriots and the 'Big Nickel Defense'

[supafly]

Jeff How reports that Devin McCourty is preparaing with the expectation that he will see time at both CB and FS in 2012:

Devin McCourty preparing at pair of positions - BostonHerald.com

I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the CBs play FS, or to see Tavon Wilson or Steve Gregory spend some time at CB.

I certainly got the impression due to DMcC's comments saying that "like coach says, 'we're not playing tomorrow so we don't have to make that decision right now.' "

To me that says that it's certainly more of a possibility than a lot of the posters here are expecting, as the majority of the posts I have seen suggest that McCourty will be back to a pure CB position. I don't believe that myself, at least not if the safety position is struggling at any point during the season.

Like you pointed out, the main key to the improvement of the secondary is the depth and versatility that we now have. The ability to have players play both CB/S is just awesome in my opinion. If/when injuries occur, or someone isn't getting the job done, we can make a much more effective change now.

This secondary will be improved this yr, and I think it will be all the way to middle of the pack. We'll likely still see the late game garbage yrs on some level, but not to the eye opening extent of last yr where all the mediots are constantly harping about it.

 

[mayoclinic]

Ebner's best spot this season is the PS. We have acquired a LOT of very good ST's players this off season to go along with the people we already have. I agree that Ebner is a special talent but virtually Stephen Neal raw. It would be best if he started to learn the S position on the PS for a season.

IT would be best for Ebert too, to have a year on the PS. 5 roster spots for rookies this season is stretching the limit. I think these 2 guys were draft THIS season to replace the 2 picks we are missing next season. NEXT season these 2 guys will come back with a REAL chance to make the roster. Much like Markelle Carter will have this season

I think most of us would be thrilled to have Ebner and Ebert spend a year on the PS. The question is, would they make it there? For every Markell Carter and Jeff Tarpinian who the Pats manage to keep on the PS (paying both higher than normal salaries to avoid the lure of other teams) there are guys like Ted Larsen, Lee Smith and Will Yeatman who get snatched up by other teams.

Both guys have a hard road to make the roster. It seems virtually impossible to imagine Ebert making the 53 man squad given all of the other options at WR, so the PS or the "Foxboro Flu" seem like the best options.

As for Ebner, I think he has slightly better chances than Ebert. The Pats will probably keep 9 DBs, though they have kept 10 at times in the past (but there is a huge numbers crunch on defense). Barring injury or trade McCourty, Chung, Dowling, Arrington, Wilson, Gregory and (probably) Moore seem like locks. That's 7 spots. Alfonzo Dennard is very likely to make the team if he doesn't get jail time. That would likely leave Will Allen, Marquice Cole, Malcolm Williams, Josh Barrett, Sergio Brown (shudder) and Ebner to fight it out for the last spot. Given the versatility on the squad and the number of guys who could play both CB and S, I could see BB valuing a ST ace more than an extra DB with the last spot. Josh Barrett has been unable to stay healthy. Sergio Brown flamed out last year. Malcolm Williams and Marquice Cole are both excellent STers, and Will Allen is an experienced vet. But Ebner would at least be in a battle for that last spot. Again, injuries and trades may significantly alter the DB landscape between now and the end of training camp.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I think most of us would be thrilled to have Ebner and Ebert spend a year on the PS. The question is, would they make it there? For every Markell Carter and Jeff Tarpinian who the Pats manage to keep on the PS (paying both higher than normal salaries to avoid the lure of other teams) there are guys like Ted Larsen, Lee Smith and Will Yeatman who get snatched up by other teams.

Both guys have a hard road to make the roster. It seems virtually impossible to imagine Ebert making the 53 man squad given all of the other options at WR, so the PS or the "Foxboro Flu" seem like the best options.

As for Ebner, I think he has slightly better chances than Ebert. The Pats will probably keep 9 DBs, though they have kept 10 at times in the past (but there is a huge numbers crunch on defense). Barring injury or trade McCourty, Chung, Dowling, Arrington, Wilson, Gregory and (probably) Moore seem like locks. That's 7 spots. Alfonzo Dennard is very likely to make the team if he doesn't get jail time. That would likely leave Will Allen, Marquice Cole, Malcolm Williams, Josh Barrett, Sergio Brown (shudder) and Ebner to fight it out for the last spot. Given the versatility on the squad and the number of guys who could play both CB and S, I could see BB valuing a ST ace more than an extra DB with the last spot. Josh Barrett has been unable to stay healthy. Sergio Brown flamed out last year. Malcolm Williams and Marquice Cole are both excellent STers, and Will Allen is an experienced vet. But Ebner would at least be in a battle for that last spot. Again, injuries and trades may significantly alter the DB landscape between now and the end of training camp.

You have to look at the texture of the defensive backfield too. Plus the CB position is becoming a three starter position with the increased number of receivers now prevalent, divided into two outside and one slot CB.

I figure 5/6 CBs and 3/4 Safety type with the Safeties divided into FS/Slot CB and SS, at a ideal ratio of 2 and 1-2. Belichick prizes versatility and the player that can play more than just his specialty. Tough but tiny Arrington has won a position as slot CB, but he has little utility as a FS and none as a SS. Dennard has ability as both a slot and outside CB. Chung and Barrett seem to have the good tackling in the box Safety abilities along with lesser coverage ability.

Meanwhile Tavon Wilson seems to have the ability as both a FS, and a slot CB, with Safety Blitz ability and secondary leadership/captaincy added. Dowling and Mccourtey backed up by Moore, Denard and/or Allen seems to have the outside CB positions filled, with McCourty showing some versatility at coverage FS too. A FS combo of Gregory and Wilson with added versatility from McCourty and perhaps Dennard looks good. That leaves Arrington and Dennard, both short man covers, to handle the shifty slot WRs. I suspect that Dennard could cover some of the outside too, but not too deep, as his recovery speed looks suspect.

The texture of this secondary is pretty good. Viewed in this light, the talents of Tavon Wilson complement and bring to completion the texture of the Secondary, if he can perform. It also makes the selection of Wilson a much more obvious call, too.

 

[mayoclinic]

You have to look at the texture of the defensive backfield too. Plus the CB position is becoming a three starter position with the increased number of receivers now prevalent, divided into two outside and one slot CB.

I figure 5/6 CBs and 3/4 Safety type with the Safeties divided into FS/Slot CB and SS, at a ideal ratio of 2 and 1-2. Belichick prizes versatility and the player that can play more than just his specialty. Tough but tiny Arrington has won a position as slot CB, but he has little utility as a FS and none as a SS. Dennard has ability as both a slot and outside CB. Chung and Barrett seem to have the good tackling in the box Safety abilities along with lesser coverage ability.

Meanwhile Tavon Wilson seems to have the ability as both a FS, and a slot CB, with Safety Blitz ability and secondary leadership/captaincy added. Dowling and Mccourtey backed up by Moore, Denard and/or Allen seems to have the outside CB positions filled, with McCourty showing some versatility at coverage FS too. A FS combo of Gregory and Dennard with added versatility from McCourty and perhaps Dennard looks good. That leaves Arrington and Dennard, both short man covers, to handle the shifty slot WRs. I suspect that Dennard could cover some of the outside too, but not too deep, as his recovery speed looks suspect.

The texture of this secondary is pretty good. Viewed in this light, the talents of Tavon Wilson complement and bring to completion the texture of the Secondary, if he can perform. It also makes the selection of Wilson a much more obvious call, too.

I agree with almost everything you said, except that I think Kyle Arrington could play FS as well as CB. He's a bit undersized, but so was Jim Leonard. Arrington is very physical for his size, and plays much bigger.

But again, I agree with most of what you wrote. I like the general composition of this secondary.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I agree with almost everything you said, except that I think Kyle Arrington could play FS as well as CB. He's a bit undersized, but so was Jim Leonard. Arrington is very physical for his size, and plays much bigger.

But again, I agree with most of what you wrote. I like the general composition of this secondary.

Thanks. Recall that in all the search for Safeties, by the Pats coaches, never was the name of Arrington proposed. Maybe he was too valuable as a slot CB, but I think it was because he doesn't have the size nor disposition for it.

Arrington's tackling reminds me of Meriwether seeking to deliver as big a hit as he can, given his small stature, and ignoring the need to be the reliable tackler, as the last line of Defense. Plus he is more quick than fast, and it would be hard for him to chase and close in a footrace down the field. Although many Safeties suffer as well unless they take very good angles.

A debatable question arises. Is the old conventional wisdom of 8-9 secondary people valid any longer? Might it be expanding to a norm of 10 and even 11, given the passing rules in the NFL today?

 

[mayoclinic]

A debatable question arises. Is the old conventional wisdom of 8-9 secondary people valid any longer? Might it be expanding to a norm of 10 and even 11, given the passing rules in the NFL today?

Maybe. But there's a huge numbers crunch on both offense and (even more so) defense. It's going to be really hard to get down to 25 guys on each, and keeping an extra DB will really hurt elsewhere. I'm not saying it won't happen, but it will be an agonizing decision no matter how it sorts out.

 

[captain stone]

1) Recall that in all the search for Safeties, by the Pats coaches, never was the name of Arrington proposed. Maybe he was too valuable as a slot CB, but I think it was because he doesn't have the size nor disposition for it.

2) Arrington's tackling reminds me of Meriwether seeking to deliver as big a hit as he can, given his small stature, and ignoring the need to be the reliable tackler, as the last line of Defense. Plus he is more quick than fast, and it would be hard for him to chase and close in a footrace down the field. Although many Safeties suffer as well unless they take very good angles.

3) A debatable question arises. Is the old conventional wisdom of 8-9 secondary people valid any longer? Might it be expanding to a norm of 10 and even 11, given the passing rules in the NFL today?

1) Not that it matters any longer, but I had felt last year that, of all the CBs on the roster then,
Antwan Molden might've had the best chance to play an effective FS.

2) Was Arrington's tackling that bad to compare it to Stomper's?

3) I think that 10 DBs is almost a must-have in today's NFL.

 

[supafly]

I agree with almost everything you said, except that I think Kyle Arrington could play FS as well as CB. He's a bit undersized, but so was Jim Leonard. Arrington is very physical for his size, and plays much bigger.

But again, I agree with most of what you wrote. I like the general composition of this secondary.

I don't disagree with too many of your opinions, but the possibility of Arrington moving to safety is one that I will respectfully disagree with.

As many others, (most notably Sciz) have pointed out along with myself, it certainly seems as though Arrington does much better in terms of defending the pass when it is between a small window of 5-10-15 yards closest to the line of scrimmage. His game is best played on closer, shallow routes. That is also one of the main reasons why he was slated to be our starting slot CB last yr until Dowling went down, and I believe that he will take over that role again this yr. It seemed that the further he went in coverage, the more he lacked the sufficient skills to defend the pass. Now one could also come back with the fact that Chung isn't exactly too good at pass defense either, so in those terms maybe Arrington would be similar. He is a hard hitting player, but I don't think his specialty is playing that far back.

Arrington is an incredible story. I think he has been a very effective piece of the overall makeup of the team, and has done nothing but overachieve. That said, he isn't even that effective of a pure outside CB, despite his INT's this yr. Most of his other numbers state that he had a pretty non-effective yr besides the timely INT's (which I am not undervaluing).

I'm sure he'd be able to play safety in a pinch, but his coverage skills would be lacking, and I don't think too many want to see him there.

I do agree with your thoughts on versatility, as I stated in my other post. We currently have guys such as McCourty, Moore, Dowling, Allen, Gregory, and maybe even Wilson who will provide the versatility that the secondary is looking for...but I don't think Arrington is too versatile, and is best used as a slot CB here.

 

[supafly]

1) Not that it matters any longer, but I had felt last year that, of all the CBs on the roster then,
Antwan Molden might've had the best chance to play an effective FS.

2) Was Arrington's tackling that bad to compare it to Stomper's?

3) I think that 10 DBs is almost a must-have in today's NFL.

I couldn't agree more Captain, in regards to point #3.

I think that we will see 6 CB's this yr, with 4 safeties; but I also think the versatility of some of the guys will allow them to have the potential to play both positions if injuries or ineffectiveness occur.

I'm a big believer in the 10 DB rule, especially with some of the problems we've had in the past + the 'changing' aspect of the dominant pass and increased subpackage formations.

 

[supafly]

Maybe. But there's a huge numbers crunch on both offense and (even more so) defense. It's going to be really hard to get down to 25 guys on each, and keeping an extra DB will really hurt elsewhere. I'm not saying it won't happen, but it will be an agonizing decision no matter how it sorts out.

As we've seen before, it's pretty much always a numbers crunch; but your point rings true especially this yr with the heightened competition (IMO).

If I had to personally choose (we can all say a little prayer that isn't the case) I would have the following for the secondary:

CB

McCourty
Dowling
Arrington
Moore
Dennard
Allen (or some may feel that it could be Cole, due to his ST)

S

Chung
Gregory
Wilson
Ebner (or some may feel that it could be Barrett or Brown)

That's 10 total DB's, obviously allowing for 15 more front seven players going by your 25/25 + 3 ST structure.

15 front seven



Wilfork
Fanane
Love
Deaderick
Bequette
Pryor
Jones



Hightower
Spikes
Mayo
Ninkovich
Fletcher
(M.Carter or Cunningham)

That allows us 2 more players which will certainly be tough, but it can be done.

There may be (in your 25/25 scenario) only 2 slots left for competition from guys such as T.White, Tarpinian, Brace, Andre Carter, etc.

My guess is that we'd see one from the first grouping (White, Tarpinian) who would also basically be a ST-only player, and one from the second grouping (A.Carter, Brace).

Of course there is still plenty of time in the summer, specifically the end of August to add an additional player from another team's cuts to add to the competition.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't disagree with too many of your opinions, but the possibility of Arrington moving to safety is one that I will respectfully disagree with.

I'm sure he'd be able to play safety in a pinch, but his coverage skills would be lacking, and I don't think too many want to see him there.

I do agree with your thoughts on versatility, as I stated in my other post. We currently have guys such as McCourty, Moore, Dowling, Allen, Gregory, and maybe even Wilson who will provide the versatility that the secondary is looking for...but I don't think Arrington is too versatile, and is best used as a slot CB here.

I don't think we disagree. I was not at all suggesting that Arrington be moved to safety was a possibility, or the right use of his skill set. Merely that he offers more than minimal potential at safety, and the versatility to be used there on occasion or by necessity.

My thought is more that with a lot of CBs who can be moved around - including to safety - and guys like Tavon Wilson and Steven Gregory who can play CB, that BB will be able to do more to confuse offenses by moving people around. I think Arrington has enough versatility to participate in this. I don't think it will be his standard role.

 

[supafly]

I don't think we disagree. I was not at all suggesting that Arrington be moved to safety was a possibility, or the right use of his skill set. Merely that he offers more than minimal potential at safety, and the versatility to be used there on occasion or by necessity.

My thought is more that with a lot of CBs who can be moved around - including to safety - and guys like Tavon Wilson and Steven Gregory who can play CB, that BB will be able to do more to confuse offenses by moving people around. I think Arrington has enough versatility to participate in this. I don't think it will be his standard role.

That is certainly a very fair thought then.

 

[AzPatsFan]

How many teams have a Gronk/Hern tandem?

How many are real "two TE offenses"?

What is interesting is how few TE's seem to be coming from college. This might give defenses a more even keel if more teams start going two TE's.

Once Belichick started it an showed it works, the copycats will follow. Don't forget that at one time the only teamsm playing thre 3-4 were Pitt and Pats.:snob::snob::snob:

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The "two-TE" offense is a phantom term when applied to the Patriots. There is nothing schematically that is difficult to defend in this system, it all has to do with the unique talents of Hernandez and Gronkowski. Hernandez has the speed of a #1 WR but is big enough to block decently, run the ball, and can line up anywhere. Gronk is a classic tight end with incredible WR-like speed and skills. The Ravens tried to just plug-in Dixon and Pitta this year and run their own version, and predictably, it did not make Dixon or Pitta's production any better than they would be in another scheme.

The Patriots don't go into game thinking "let's run the 2-TE" offense, they are thinking, how can we use Gronk and Hernandez to create huge mismatches to our advantage.

Because Hernandez is a hybrid WR/TE and is not even a true tight end, I wouldn't even consider this a real 2-TE offense. I'd consider that where you have two big classic TEs who are menacing blockers and make the running game a big threat.

If other teams are stupid enough to "copycat" the Patriots by using two below-average tight ends on the field, rather than using one or two better offensive players, they're allowed to be stupid.

 

[mayoclinic]

I know it's the Bleacher Report, but I thought this analysis of what Tavon Wilson could bring was pretty nice:

Patriots' Rookie Tavon Wilson: Breaking Down the Enigma of the 48th Pick | Bleacher Report

It's a good read, and I strong encourage taking a look at it. The article looks at the number of different ways in which Wilson was used at Illinois and highlights his experience and versatility. The fact that Wilson actually had experience playing in a variety of sets rather than just measurables and potential may have been a key factor differentiating him from guys like Trumaine Johnson and Brandon Hardin. The artcile also suggests that the Wilson pick fits in with BB's comments made about the Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower picks regarding the changing NFL offenses and the increased time spent in "sub" formations:

Wilson has a lot of experience, both physically lining up at different positions and mentally as he's seen a lot of different concepts. This is a significant positive for him coming into the NFL because not every defender is as fortunate. ... He showed at Illinois he can play in the box as a run defender, and he's shown he can be effective as a blitzer with his good balance, foot speed and physicality. This versatility is most likely the most significant reason the Patriots decided to spend a second-round pick on him, despite many believing he was not valued as one by draft pundits. ... When evaluating the draft selection, it's important to keep in mind the trend of today's NFL, which is seeing a lot of multiple receiver sets that force defenses to utilize multiple personnel groupings (sub-packages) in order to defend the pass. This leads to teams having issues against the run, consequently opening up the entire playbook for the offense.

 

[eom]

I think the most significant reason the pats decided to spend a 2nd rounder on wilson is that they were pretty much tapped after the 2nd round.

 

[supafly]

I know it's the Bleacher Report, but I thought this analysis of what Tavon Wilson could bring was pretty nice:

Patriots' Rookie Tavon Wilson: Breaking Down the Enigma of the 48th Pick | Bleacher Report

It's a good read, and I strong encourage taking a look at it. The article looks at the number of different ways in which Wilson was used at Illinois and highlights his experience and versatility. The fact that Wilson actually had experience playing in a variety of sets rather than just measurables and potential may have been a key factor differentiating him from guys like Trumaine Johnson and Brandon Hardin. The artcile also suggests that the Wilson pick fits in with BB's comments made about the Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower picks regarding the changing NFL offenses and the increased time spent in "sub" formations:

Wilson has a lot of experience, both physically lining up at different positions and mentally as he's seen a lot of different concepts. This is a significant positive for him coming into the NFL because not every defender is as fortunate. ... He showed at Illinois he can play in the box as a run defender, and he's shown he can be effective as a blitzer with his good balance, foot speed and physicality. This versatility is most likely the most significant reason the Patriots decided to spend a second-round pick on him, despite many believing he was not valued as one by draft pundits. ... When evaluating the draft selection, it's important to keep in mind the trend of today's NFL, which is seeing a lot of multiple receiver sets that force defenses to utilize multiple personnel groupings (sub-packages) in order to defend the pass. This leads to teams having issues against the run, consequently opening up the entire playbook for the offense.

From an opinion based standpoint, I don't mind BR nearly as much as most. As a matter of fact, there are some good articles and writers from time to time, just the same way that there are some good views and comments on here too.

Now if you're talking about hard core numbers or breaking stories, then we can all agree that BR is not the place for that kind of info.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is a bit OT, but given the discussion of CB/S hybrids and guys like McCourty having positional versatlity, here's how another player responds to the idea:

Orlando Scandrick has heard the notion that he could be converted into a hybrid cornerback/safety so the Cowboys can get him on the field more. He doesn't want to hear it. "Not happening," Scandrick told Tim McMahon of ESPNDallas.com.

Folks around the Cowboys aren't so sure. The team wants to get their best players on the field. That might include using four cornerbacks at times. That likely means at least one of the cornerbacks has to take on some safety-like responsibilities. There was talk of doing this with Scandrick under Wade Phillips, too.

Cornerbacks don't like to be told they are safeties. It usually means you have inferior cover skills and/or speed. Safeties make less money. Scandrick might be resistant to the term, but the reality is that a lot of teams are making players hybrid cornerback/safeties. That's one of the only ways to match up with catch-first tight ends or formations with four players lined up wide.

Scandrick is probably fourth in line at cornerback, but he's more talented than any Cowboys free safety. So that means Scandrick may be a safety-like player whether he likes it or not.

Cowboys' Scandrick against hybrid safety/corner role - NFL.com

Not an attitude that would go over very well on the Pats.

 

[mayoclinic]

More on the "4 corners and a safety" nickel idea, especially related to the Cowboys and Patriots, from Ian Rapoport:

While [Dallas CB Mike] Jenkins is frustrated that the Cowboys effectively replaced him this offseason, members of Dallas' coaching staff view it differently. They believe they can put big-ticket free agent Brandon Carr, No. 6 overall pick Morris Claiborne, slot corner Orlando Scandrick and Jenkins on the field together. While a nickel look featuring four corners would be considered a departure from normalcy, it is an adjustment to a game already tilted toward the pass.

"This league has become a passing league," Cowboys defensive backs coach Jerome Henderson said. "Look at what the quarterbacks are doing and how the game is kind of evolving a little bit, how they protect the quarterbacks, and rightfully so. The more cover guys you have, the better off you'll be on defense. So any time we can put cover guys on the field in a pass situation and let those guys match up, I think it helps our defense. We'll look to do that some if the opportunity presents itself."

Dallas Cowboys still have plans for disgruntled CB Mike Jenkins - NFL.com

I think we could see a lot of this with the Pats, with Pat Chung being the only pure safety on the field. Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling, Tavon Wilson, Steven Gregory, Alfonzo Dennard and Sterling Moore are all CB/S hyrbids, whether they are listed on the depth chart as CBs or safeties. I think Kyle Arrington could possibly play that role too. As Rapoport notes, the Pats were one of the trend setters in going this route in 2011:

It's not like [the Cowboys]'d be the first team to use an unconventional look as their main defense. Last year, before they played the Jets, the New England Patriots inserted cornerback Sterling Moore into the starting lineup as a "safety" and simply instructed him to cover. Later, it was former Pro Bowl corner Devin McCourty at safety.

According to data compiled by the analytical website ProFootballFocus.com, teams used four cornerbacks for 1,627 snaps last year, a small number that was mostly limited to dime packages. Of that number, the look was used in nickel packages -- as the Cowboys would -- 365 times, and almost all of that was the Arizona Cardinals and Patriots[/b].

Rapoport also notes the major potential downside of this approach:

Playing four corners and leaving out one physical safety ... creates a void in run stuffing and puts more pressure on a wanting linebacker group. If opponents feature a burly tight end, more than one safety may be needed.

If the Pats wanted to play more of a "4 corners and a safety" nickel approach, the ways to address this issue would be (1) to have physical cover DBs who can also aggressively support the run, and (2) to have a strong, versatile group of LBs who can handle the additional strain placed on them by this scheme. It would seem that the Pats' have addressed both of these issues. Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling, Steven Gregory, Tavon Wilson and Alfonzo Dennard are all cover guys who are physical and aggressive in run support. And Mayo, Hightower, Ninkovich, Spikes (and possibly Fletcher or Carpenter) gives the Pats a lot of depth and versatility at LB.

I personally think this approach is a lot more likely to be successful than the kind of traditional "big nickel" personnel which Pat Kirwan discusses in the article referenced by the OP.

 

[mayoclinic]

In the same vein as the above 2 posts, Chris Price chimes in on the schematic diversity of the Pats' secondary:

patriots - Why Bill Belichick will enter a whole new world with his secondary in 2012 - WEEI | Christopher Price