Passing league: Explaining the NFL's aerial evolution

[lurker1965]

Would be great to see defensive genius Bill Belichick catch up to what offensive genius Bill Belichick has helped wrought upon the league.

This would be like Bobby Fischer (from 1968 to 1972) did for the poison pawn variation of the Sicilian defense.

(Since no one will get the reference as white Bobby offered the poison pawn and won as people backed down, then as black when people offered the poison pawn he took it and won, then later when he was white he'd offer it and when they took it he'd win anyway. Books from that era had the advice to not take the poison pawn unless you are Bobby Fischer.)

I could see a team, say the Jets, playing that defense at us and Brady showing where the weaknesses are, then the Dolphins trying to exploit those weaknesses against the Patriots and failing.

Fischer's secret was he was Bobby Freakin' Fischer. The Patriot's secret will be that he's Tom Freakin' Brady.

 

[lurker1965]

You want to roll back the "Polian Rules" that were enacted by the comp committee for four straight seasons after Peyton was humiliated in Foxboro, 20-3? Goodell would never go for that...after all,they were trumped up "for the good of the league!!!".

You forget, Polian is out of the league and Manning will soon retire. So soon it will be OK.

 

[Joker]

sorry to give you bad news BUT....

Jeff Fisher regains NFL competition committee spot - ESPN

looks like Polian's legacy will continue under the aegis of his biggest fan...

 

[Richard Camembert]

It has always been a passing league:

40 and Fabulous: in praise of passer rating | Cold Hard Football Facts

"There is a pervasive and erroneous belief among NFL fans and analysts that the passing game has grown more important in recent years. The passing game has NOT grown more important in recent years. It's simply grown more common, as teams pass more. But the reality is dominance on the field has always been the direct result of dominance in the passing game, at least since the dawn of the T-formation era in the NFL in 1940."

 

[captain stone]

sorry to give you bad news BUT....

Jeff Fisher regains NFL competition committee spot - ESPN

looks like Polian's legacy will continue under the aegis of his biggest fan...

The makeup & selection of the NonCompetition Committee is a national disgrace.

 

[mayoclinic]

For an interesting and provocative read on building a defense (the "Bartlett Defense", as the author calls it) from scratch to address today's aerial offenses, the following series of articles is worth reading in their entirety:

The Bartlett Defense is going to solve a specific problem, which is THE problem in defensive football today. That is that offenses are able to dictate to defenses through the use of sub packages and variations in alignment, and they can resultingly get the defense into bad matchups. My new concept is going to begin by solving that problem, and the foundation to how it will do that is with a completely new approach to defensive personnel groupings and alignment. That’s going to be Part 1.

The rest of the series will lay out as follows:

Part 2: Principles for 100% defensive soundness
Part 3: Reads and thought processes
Part 4: Running game principles
Part 5: Base pass calls
Part 6: Blitz calls
Part 7: Adjustment principles

The Bartlett Defense: Part 1 - Personnel and alignment - It's All Over, Fat Man!
The Bartlett Defense: Part 2 - Principles for 100% soundness - It's All Over, Fat Man!
The Bartlett Defense: Part 2.5 - Responding to an excellent comment - It's All Over, Fat Man!

That's as far as the author has gotten so far - more to come shortly, I expect. No, I don't think the series was written by Off the Grid - though it could have been, as it is extremely creative and innovative and uses its own terminology. But the approach is mainly influenced by Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll, and it has clear elements of the Belichick Defense as it appears to be evolving. The author notes:

The offense is going to decide how many WRs to put in the game, and it forces a traditional defense to send in a corresponding number of CBs. In almost all cases, the extra WRs are better than the extra CBs, just because CBs are harder to find than WRs. Complicating matters, if a team has more than one good TE, like the Patriots do, a defense is forced to choose whether to adjust its personnel to Nickel or stay in Base when confronted with 12 or 22 Personnel. Neither choice is a good one. My answer to this problem is to rethink defensive personnel groupings and archetypes from the ground up.

The author's approach is to build a base defense with 5 DBs: 2 safeties and 3 CBs. It appears closest in form to a 4-2-5 base with positional variability, something that we've discussed many times before, and with the LBs being able to cover and the safeties being able to function as LBs, something else that's been discussed before:

We have an every-snap eight-man front, with three very large front players, one medium-sized DE, two small/fast LBs, and two physical Safeties. The key is the two matchup safeties, who are going to serve the dual roles of linebackers and defensive backs. ... We’re saying that having a specifically assigned Sam LB in a 3-4, or a Mike LB in a 4-3, or a Strong Safety in any scheme isn’t necessary. We want some specific traits, like tackling ability from all 11 players, effort, ball skills, toughness, and intelligence. We also want endurance and durability, because we’re not planning on substituting situationally much based on offensive groupings.

Since our Base group has five DB, it’s good against most offensive personnel groupings. We’re not worried against two good TEs, whether the offense runs or passes, and we feel fine about covering three WR as well, with either man or zone concepts. When the offense goes to four or five WR, we simply replace one of the LBs with the Eddie CB. When we’re pretty sure there’ll be a pass play, we bring in the Jack for the Chuck, and maybe move the Chuck down to replace the Nate inside. That’s the whole substitution pattern, beyond occasionally subbing for a tired player.

Again, what's most interesting about this discussion to me is that it borrows heavily from the author's interpretation of the Belichick Defense, including ocncepts from the Grantland article with the fusion of 2-gap and 1-gap elements. It describes a defense in which the personnel and the scheme are versatile and adaptable enough to morph between different formations (semi-amoeboid in nature) and shift assignments based on the offensive personnel, tendencies and formation, with little substitution. Regardless of what you think of the author's proposals, his analysis clearly captures some of the ideas that BB has been tinkering with, and problems that a re-designed Pats' defense (or any other defense) has to address in today's NFL. It's also instructive to compare the recent offseason personnel moves on defense and how key players fit the roles which the author identifies as key for this type of defense.

 

[mayoclinic]

ESPN's Kevin Seifert jumps on the "evolution of the modern aerial offense and can anything stop it?" theme:

ESPN.com's NFL bloggers explored the topic [of "the league's inexorable shift toward the passing game"] with more than a dozen coaches and general managers [who] describ[ed] a weighted fight against offenses that boast advantages in both rules and personnel. They connected the rise of the passing game with the NFL's apex in popularity, suggesting the league has ample motivation to ensure offensive supremacy. "You're not going to stop them," an NFC executive said. "The league is built around prolific offenses. We're never going back to the days of a team scoring in single digits. Let's face the facts. The rules just are very much in favor of the offenses."

Coaches and executives we spoke with boiled down the causes to three major factors: bigger receivers, rules limiting contact 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and newly enforced emphases on contact to the head and quarterback hits. ... The physical mismatch is exacerbated, coaches and executives say, by rules that limit defensive aggression and physicality.

Counters to NFL passing games? Elusive - NFC North Blog - ESPN

The article also discusses defensive adjustments, though it cautions that things may be so skewed towards the offense that a true "cycle" may not occur:

Based on our interviews, at least, it appears NFL teams are shifting their defensive priorities to compensate. Pass rush now dwarfs coverage in terms of importance, but teams are emphasizing coverage skills at supplementary positions more than ever, especially at linebacker and safety, in the draft. "We can have all the DBs we want," said Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak, "but if we can't make the quarterback get rid of the ball, it doesn't matter. So [it] starts with pass rush all the time."

"Defenses have to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback with only four pass-rushers," an NFC executive said. "If you're sending linebackers or defensive backs as blitzers, you're going to get torn apart." That's true especially when facing elite or near-elite quarterbacks who understand the vulnerabilities of various blitz packages. So what's the answer? For obvious reasons, coaches were loath to discuss schematic solutions, but Kansas City coach Romeo Crennel added some context for how a successful 2012 pass-first defense could be deployed.

A competitive defense in this era, Crennel said, must employ above-average coverage skills at most, if not all, of the seven of the linebacker/defensive back positions. They must work in tandem with a pass rush that doesn't need more than five players to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

"You have to be able to cover," Crennel said. "You’ve got to have guys that can cover. So you're looking at corners that can cover, linebackers that can cover and even safeties that can cover. And not only zone safeties but safeties that can go man-to-man. Because you have to be able to mix man in there. So I think that’s the biggest thing, particularly the linebackers … So I think you see defenses transitioning from being those run-stopping defenses where you put eight guys in the box to spreading things out, matchups, doubling more receivers, and then those linebackers have to be able to cover. Because if they can't cover, they're going to get isolated."

Therein lies another problem. How many NFL linebackers can be counted on to cover receivers or even the newest generation of tight ends? There aren't enough to go around, that's for sure.

In the end, a handful of teams could assemble enough players with coverage skills and match it with an active pass rush to give quarterbacks more fits than most opponents. But can anything curtail the larger trend? NFL coaches and executives cast serious doubt on that question. One compared the current combination of factors to the impact of baseball lowering its pitching mound in 1969 to boost batting averages.

It's a good read, echoing much of what has already been discussed in this thread. The use of more DBs who have to have both coverage ability and run support and of coverage LBs is consistent with the value the Pats placed on Tavon Wilson, the value of a LB like Lavonte David who plays bigger than his size but who can also function as a DB, and the value of a front line that can generate effective pressure without excessive blitzing.

 

[Why?PJ]

lol, yeah. I am worried he doesn't have the stuff anymore. I mean the Patriots declining defense as BB seems to spend more time working on offense, it makes me wonder. Or is this just an exercise for him to understand the problems defenses face. You can never tell with BB. He seems to push himself a lot.
Probably most don't agree, but allowing Bradshaw to score in the playoff was a master stroke. I thought. Thats kind of concussive that the defensive mind is there, but he knows where his bread is buttered.
I don't know, you think BB can defeat a powerful spread offense ?
Create some defense that does not exist yet?
Would be sweet. Never seen the Saints stuffed sense 2006. Any DC that could keep the Pats,Saints, Lions, GB, and etc.. to 14pts consistently .. hmm wow. Stuffed like the Falcons in the playoffs.
But that same defense could not stuff the Pats, and theres a good chance wouldn't have made the SB if it faced NO at home. Defenses are so prolific vs some teams and helpless vs others.

BB needs a talented defense. You can't go grab a bunch of veterans like he did in 2001 because half the league is running a 34. BB has been playing defense with half a deck the past couple of years. This might be the first year in a long time people are actually excited about the defense.

What you refer to as the Polian rules were not new rules but just a pointof emphasis. I think it was prior to 82 that dbacks could continue to knock the receiver all the way down the field until the ball was in the air.

point of emphasis my ass. the rules went from totally ignored to enforced when the nfl wanted them to be, and always enforced for the colts. There was basically a let payton win won at any cost mentality going on.

 

[Uncle Rico]

This would be like Bobby Fischer (from 1968 to 1972) did for the poison pawn variation of the Sicilian defense.

And everyone knows you don't mess with a Sicilian when death is on the line.

 

[Joker]

Fischer's secret was he was Bobby Freakin' Fischer. The Patriot's secret will be that he's Tom Freakin' Brady.

guess that makes Peytie "Bore-us Spazzky"??

BTW...this a great You Tube chronicling Fischer -Spassky...forgive me for posting a chess clip on a football board but it's a clip for the Lurker...I forgot about all the espionage charges the Reds leveled at the CIA over this match...it WAS a wonderful American moment in history

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6WsuBZfr10&feature=player_detailpage

 

[mayoclinic]

Broncos blogger Ted Bartlett (of the Bartlett Defense series discussed a few posts above) has some nice articles on the value of the "move TE" (prototype = Aaron Hernandez) and of the defensive counterpart, the "matchup safety" (prototype = Antrel Rolle):

Fat Camp: Undervalued roles - the Move TE - It's All Over, Fat Man!
Fat Camp: Undervalued roles - the Matchup Safety - It's All Over, Fat Man!

It's a nice pair of articles, with lots of interesting schematics, worth reading together. Again, the Tavon Wilson pick makes sense at least from the point of view of the type of skill set needed.

 

[mayoclinic]

Adam Gabriel of ESPN Insider looks at some of the stats from the NFL's "tight end revolution", including data on TEs lining up in the slot position:

NFL - Andrew Luck should benefit from the tight end revolution - ESPN

It's Insider content, but there's nothing terrribly earth shattering in the article.

 

[Frezo]

Adam Gabriel of ESPN Insider looks at some of the stats from the NFL's "tight end revolution", including data on TEs lining up in the slot position:

NFL - Andrew Luck should benefit from the tight end revolution - ESPN

It's Insider content, but there's nothing terrribly earth shattering in the article.

Don't you think Coughlin's eye twitches a couple of times when he reads stuff like this?

 

[Kontradiction]

The Pats are partly responsible for the surge in passing in the NFL.

How many NFL or College teams ran the spread offense prior to 2001? Today, virtually every NFL or Collegiate team runs some form of the Spread. HCs on the collegiate and High School level took notice of NEs success and now its hard to watch a College or High School football game and not see the Spread. QBs are in the shotgun, no RBs with 5 WRs.

I emailed a High School football HC a few years ago and he emailed me back the 2001 NE playbook in PDF form. Imititation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Scott Pioli was on sports radio the other day and stated that today you need 3 very good CBs and 3 very good coverage Safeties because of how the game has changed where all 6 would be on the field at any given time. TEs Like Hernandez require DBs with coverage skills because most LBs cannot cover athletic TEs like him.

I don't understand this post. The 2001 Patriots were not even close to a spread offense and they weren't even close to pioneering it. The spread was pioneered by Rusty Russell in the 20's and has since been modified and perfected into the spread option by Urban Meyer. The Pats themselves didn't even become a true spread until '07 when, overseen by Meyer himself as a consultant, the Patriots installed one of the first spread attacks in the NFL behind the firepower (at the time) of Moss, Welker, and Stallworth.

The 2001 offense was much more ground and pound.

 

[IllegalContact]

just saw this....goo stuff, Mo....thanks for digging it up

the only problem I have is that the difference between the way games are called in the postseason and the regular season is increasing

all season long, we are seeing teams turn games into track meets, but once the playoffs roll around, things change, and it goes back to what the regular seasons used to be. they don't call contact the same way, and teh defense has a much better time defending.

the side effect here is that the difference between the best and worst defenses has decreased and the difference between the best and worst offenses has increased. mostly because due to the pass-happiness, the differences between QB has been magnified, and now there are simply not enough QB's at that level to go around.....good offenses are better, and bad ones are worse

 

[mayoclinic]

It's a little OT to this thread, but apparently Ray Lewis has slimmed down to his lightest playing weight since his rookie year, in part as an adjustment to the increasing emphasis on spread offenses:

As the Ravens reported to training camp Wednesday, Lewis acknowledged that he is at his lightest weight since entering the league in 1996. A coach told him that the later you get in your career, the lighter you need to be in order to play. Lewis took that to heart this offseason, saying he is "much lighter" than his listed playing weight of 240 pounds.

"The game is changing," Lewis said. "The game ain't no more 250, 260-pound fullback and you don't have offenses running the ball 25, 30, 40-plus times. That was my thought process was coming into this year. Playing lighter is much smarter for me."

This is rationale thinking considering the NFL has turned into a passing league, and it's hard to second-guess perhaps the greatest linebacker to ever play the game. But you have to wonder if Lewis lost too much weight this offseason. Lewis wouldn't reveal his weight -- "I keep that to myself," he said -- but let's estimate he's around 230 pounds. He still has to fight through blockers. He still has to take on big running backs in the AFC North like the Browns' Trent Richardson (228 pounds), the Bengals' BenJarvus Green-Ellis (220 pounds) and the Steelers' Isaac Redman (230 pounds). Baltimore has never had to worry about teams consistently running against its defense with Lewis in the middle. The Ravens have never allowed more than 3.9 yards per carry in any season. But that's been with Lewis weighing between 250 and 260 pounds.

Did Ray Lewis lose too much weight? - NFL Nation Blog - ESPN

The Pats leapfrogged the Ravens to take 6'2" 264# Dont'a Hightower in the 2012 draft, a guy they apparently felt could play in an aerial league and still provide size and pop in the middle. It will be interesting to see how a 230# 37 year old Ray Lewis fares in today's NFL.

 

[mayoclinic]

More on Ray Lewis losing weight to adjust to more of a pass coverage role:

Having weighed as much as 260 pounds in the past, Lewis reported to the Ravens training camp noticeably lighter, well below the 240 pounds the team lists him on their roster. One of the main reasons Lewis said he decided to drop the weight is because of the NFL's evolution into becoming a passing league.

Teams are no longer running the ball 30 to 40 times a game, and instead are throwing the ball around with versatile, pass-catching tight ends to disrupt what linebackers have grown accustomed to doing on the football field.

Lewis wouldn't disclose his playing weight except acknowledging he was below 240.

"It's all based on matchups now," Lewis said. "People want to find mismatches here and there. You have to change with the game."

Playing at that weight could become a challenge in the AFC North, a hard-nosed division that still likes to establish the run. The Browns drafted Alabama running back Trent Richardson with the third overall pick. The Steelers, which did spread the ball around quite a bit in 2011, are hoping to re-establish the run with Isaac Redman. The Bengals welcome reliable running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis to a backfield that will be used to open up big plays down the field.

Lewis spoke early Wednesday evening with confidence he won't lose the power the weight loss could ultimately bring. "It's a passing game," he said. "It's a quick game. Offenses want to score 30, 40 points and it's by creating mismatches."

Ravens LB Ray Lewis at lightest playing weight of his 17-year career - CBSSports.com

This discussion brings back some thoughts about the debate as to whether a guy like Lavonte David could play more than a situation role as a LB for the Pats. David weight around 233 lbs. Lewis (who weighed about 225# when he came out of Miami in 1996) is apparently trying to play at that kind of weight for the Ravens.